Heracles Almelo v Jong AZ — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 11 September 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627

NED-Eerste Divisie results-only Prediction generated 10 Sep 2026, 19:28 UTC

Heracles Almelo

3–2

18:00 UTC

Jong AZ

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 11 Sep, 11:38 · 6h before kick-off

Heracles Almelo win

70.2%

model 70.1%

Draw

12.6%

model 14.2%

Jong AZ win

17.2%

model 15.7%

701317

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (960 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

3-1 7.3%
2-1 6.8%
4-1 5.9%
3-2 5.7%
2-2 5.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	85.6%	Under 2.5	14.4%
BTTS yes	75.8%	BTTS no	24.2%
Heracles Almelo 1+	96.0%	Heracles Almelo 2+	83.1%
Jong AZ 1+	79.1%	Jong AZ 2+	46.3%

Expected goals 3.22 – 1.56. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

51/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

86%

★ Best pick

Heracles Almelo over 2.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 25%

62.4% fair odds 1.60

strong signal · 9942 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Heracles Almelo or draw at HT

Double chance 1HT

83.9% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 975 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.86).

Why the model thinks this

The price

Heracles Almelo have an estimated 70.2% win probability, against 17.2% for Jong AZ and 12.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 3.22 for Heracles Almelo and 1.56 for Jong AZ.

Why Heracles Almelo

Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 12.6%. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why Jong AZ can win

Nothing in the data singles out Jong AZ.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Heracles Almelo, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Jong AZ, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Heracles Almelo: 55% possession, 19.6 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Jong AZ: 53% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-11 15:19 · team_stats 2026-09-11 06:03 · availability 2026-09-11 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·

Heracles Almelo are the model's most likely outcome at 70.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 3-1 at 7.3%. Confidence 51/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	701416	3.22–1.56	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
ai-blend-oos	701416	3.25–1.58	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-xg	8488	4.51–1.59	4-1 6%	94%	79%	Home ✓
dc-xg-oos	8487	4.49–1.56	4-1 6%	94%	78%	Home ✓
deep	781111	3.98–1.69	3-1 6%	92%	80%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to win	77.5%	78.1%	44.5%	1.76×	1.28
Jong AZ to win	11.5%	13.6%	33.5%	0.41×	7.33
Draw	11.0%	13.6%	22.1%	0.62×	7.34

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo & both teams score	59.2%	51.4%	22.0%	2.34×	1.95
Heracles Almelo & not both score	18.3%	18.0%	22.6%	0.80×	5.55
Draw & both teams score	10.8%	13.3%	17.4%	0.76×	7.54
Jong AZ & both teams score	9.9%	8.3%	19.7%	0.42×	11.99
Jong AZ & not both score	1.6%	4.9%	14.0%	0.35×	20.47
Draw & not both score	0.3%	4.9%	4.8%	1.02×	20.51

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo & over 1.5	76.0%	73.5%	37.0%	1.99×	1.36
Heracles Almelo & over 2.5	73.2%	66.2%	30.8%	2.15×	1.51
Heracles Almelo & over 3.5	64.9%	55.2%	18.9%	2.92×	1.81
Heracles Almelo & under 3.5	12.6%	12.8%	25.7%	0.50×	7.79
Draw & over 1.5	10.8%	12.8%	17.4%	0.74×	7.79
Jong AZ & over 1.5	10.8%	12.8%	27.4%	0.47×	7.79
Jong AZ & over 2.5	10.3%	12.8%	23.7%	0.54×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	8.5%	8.0%	8.1%	0.98×	12.55
Draw & over 3.5	8.5%	8.0%	8.1%	0.98×	12.55
Jong AZ & over 3.5	8.0%	8.0%	13.9%	0.57×	12.55
Heracles Almelo & under 2.5	4.3%	4.9%	13.8%	0.35×	20.51
Jong AZ & under 3.5	3.4%	4.9%	19.8%	0.25×	20.51
Draw & under 2.5	2.5%	4.9%	14.1%	0.35×	20.52
Draw & under 3.5	2.5%	4.9%	14.1%	0.35×	20.52
Heracles Almelo & under 1.5	1.5%	4.9%	7.6%	0.64×	20.52
Jong AZ & under 2.5	1.2%	4.9%	10.0%	0.49×	20.53
Draw & under 1.5	0.3%	4.9%	4.8%	1.02×	20.53
Jong AZ & under 1.5	0.7%	4.9%	6.3%	0.78×	20.53

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (1UP)	88.9%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Jong AZ (1UP)	37.9%	34.4%	—	—	2.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (2UP)	77.5%	76.4%	—	—	1.31
Jong AZ (2UP)	13.0%	13.4%	—	—	7.45

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to win 2nd half	65.4%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
2nd half drawn	18.9%	19.1%	—	—	5.23
Jong AZ to win 2nd half	15.7%	18.8%	—	—	5.31

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ under 1.5 in 2nd half	73.2%	75.2%	—	—	1.33
Jong AZ over 0.5 in 2nd half	63.6%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
Jong AZ under 0.5 in 2nd half	36.4%	40.9%	—	—	2.45
Jong AZ over 1.5 in 2nd half	26.8%	24.8%	—	—	4.04

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo over 0.5 in 2nd half	89.6%	88.2%	—	—	1.13
Heracles Almelo over 1.5 in 2nd half	65.9%	71.2%	—	—	1.40
Heracles Almelo under 1.5 in 2nd half	34.1%	28.8%	—	—	3.48
Heracles Almelo under 0.5 in 2nd half	10.4%	11.8%	—	—	8.44

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (+0.5)	88.5%	88.3%	66.5%	1.33×	1.13
Heracles Almelo (-0.5)	77.5%	78.3%	44.5%	1.76×	1.28
Heracles Almelo (-1.5)	62.0%	63.0%	24.4%	2.58×	1.59
Jong AZ (+2.5)	55.3%	56.9%	88.2%	0.65×	1.76
Heracles Almelo (-2.5)	44.7%	43.1%	11.8%	3.65×	2.32
Jong AZ (+1.5)	38.0%	37.0%	75.6%	0.49×	2.70
Jong AZ (+0.5)	22.5%	21.7%	55.5%	0.39×	4.61
Jong AZ (-0.5)	11.5%	11.7%	33.5%	0.35×	8.55

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ to concede	98.1%	96.8%	81.3%	1.19×	1.03
Jong AZ clean sheet	1.9%	3.2%	18.7%	0.17×	31.38

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ to concede in 1st half	81.9%	82.1%	—	—	1.22
Jong AZ clean sheet in 1st half	18.1%	17.9%	—	—	5.58

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ to concede in 2nd half	89.6%	91.7%	—	—	1.09
Jong AZ clean sheet in 2nd half	10.4%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ under 3.5 goals	90.9%	92.2%	93.0%	0.99×	1.09
Jong AZ over 0.5 goals	81.4%	81.2%	72.7%	1.12×	1.23
Jong AZ under 2.5 goals	76.1%	76.2%	81.5%	0.94×	1.31
Jong AZ over 1.5 goals	50.2%	53.4%	42.0%	1.27×	1.87
Jong AZ under 1.5 goals	49.8%	46.6%	58.0%	0.80×	2.15
Jong AZ over 2.5 goals	23.9%	23.8%	18.6%	1.28×	4.20
Jong AZ under 0.5 goals	18.6%	18.8%	27.3%	0.69×	5.32
Jong AZ over 3.5 goals	9.1%	7.8%	7.0%	1.12×	12.79

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ under 1.5 in 1st half	85.3%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
Jong AZ under 0.5 in 1st half	51.0%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Jong AZ over 0.5 in 1st half	49.0%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Jong AZ over 1.5 in 1st half	14.7%	11.3%	—	—	8.88

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ scores more in 2nd half	42.6%	43.8%	—	—	2.28
Jong AZ scores equally in both	33.5%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Jong AZ scores more in 1st half	23.9%	22.4%	—	—	4.46

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (away no bet)	87.5%	84.1%	66.8%	1.26×	1.19
Draw (away no bet)	12.5%	15.9%	33.2%	0.48×	6.30

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ even goals	51.7%	52.7%	57.0%	0.92×	1.90
Jong AZ odd goals	48.3%	47.3%	43.0%	1.10×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves over 1.5 goals	57.6%	53.9%	—	—	1.86
Not both halves over 1.5	42.4%	46.1%	—	—	2.17

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	94.9%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Both halves under 1.5 goals	5.1%	4.4%	—	—	22.95

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	90.6%	91.2%	—	—	1.10
Heracles Almelo to score 2+ in a row	82.9%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Either team to score 3+ in a row	61.3%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Heracles Almelo to score 3+ in a row	56.3%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Jong AZ to score 2+ in a row	29.5%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Jong AZ to score 3+ in a row	7.5%	5.6%	—	—	17.74

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	37.9%	31.7%	4.7%	6.80×	3.15
3-1	6.2%	7.4%	4.9%	1.50×	13.54
3-2	5.2%	7.4%	4.3%	1.72×	13.54
4-1	6.2%	7.4%	1.4%	5.47×	13.54
4-2	5.2%	7.4%	1.5%	5.01×	13.54
0-0	0.3%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	57.58
0-1	0.7%	1.7%	6.3%	0.28×	57.58
0-2	0.5%	1.7%	3.8%	0.46×	57.58
0-3	0.3%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	57.58
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.4%	1.29×	57.58
1-0	1.5%	1.7%	7.6%	0.23×	57.57
1-1	2.3%	1.7%	9.5%	0.18×	57.57
1-2	2.0%	1.7%	7.5%	0.23×	57.57
1-3	1.1%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	57.57
1-4	0.5%	1.7%	2.2%	0.79×	57.58
2-0	2.8%	1.7%	6.3%	0.28×	57.57
2-1	4.7%	1.7%	8.1%	0.21×	57.56
2-2	3.9%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	57.56
2-3	2.2%	1.7%	3.6%	0.49×	57.57
2-4	0.9%	1.7%	1.5%	1.18×	57.58
3-0	3.7%	1.7%	4.1%	0.43×	57.56
3-3	2.9%	1.7%	1.6%	1.09×	57.56
3-4	1.2%	1.7%	1.2%	1.41×	57.57
4-0	3.7%	1.7%	3.4%	0.51×	57.56
4-3	2.9%	1.7%	0.5%	3.54×	57.57
4-4	1.2%	1.7%	0.1%	14.12×	57.57

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (2nd half DNB)	80.7%	81.1%	—	—	1.23
Jong AZ (2nd half DNB)	19.3%	18.9%	—	—	5.29

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo leading at HT (DNB)	81.3%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Jong AZ leading at HT (DNB)	18.7%	13.8%	—	—	7.27

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo or Jong AZ (12)	89.0%	86.4%	77.9%	1.11×	1.16
Heracles Almelo or draw (1X)	88.5%	86.4%	66.5%	1.30×	1.16
Jong AZ or draw (X2)	22.5%	21.9%	55.5%	0.39×	4.56

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo or draw at HT	85.7%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Heracles Almelo or Jong AZ at HT	76.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Jong AZ or draw at HT	37.7%	30.3%	—	—	3.30

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo or draw (1UP)	88.9%	92.0%	—	—	1.09
Jong AZ or draw (1UP)	37.9%	42.4%	—	—	2.36

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo or draw in 2nd half	84.3%	81.2%	—	—	1.23
Heracles Almelo or Jong AZ in 2nd half	81.1%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Jong AZ or draw in 2nd half	34.6%	38.4%	—	—	2.61

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half drawn	62.1%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
A half drawn	37.9%	38.4%	—	—	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (DNB)	87.1%	87.0%	57.0%	1.53×	1.15
Jong AZ (DNB)	12.9%	13.0%	43.0%	0.30×	7.71

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to score first	70.1%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Jong AZ to score first	29.7%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
No goal scored	0.3%	4.2%	—	—	23.93

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	79.8%	62.4%	58.8%	1.06×	1.60
Not both teams to score	20.2%	37.6%	41.2%	0.91×	2.66

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	77.6%	67.5%	49.5%	1.36×	1.48
Not both score & over 2.5	14.5%	12.3%	13.0%	0.94×	8.14
Not both score & under 2.5	5.7%	8.3%	28.3%	0.30×	12.00
Both score & under 2.5	2.3%	4.6%	9.5%	0.48×	21.85

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	54.5%	53.9%	79.0%	0.68×	1.85
Both teams to score 2+	45.5%	46.1%	21.0%	2.19×	2.17

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score in 2nd half	56.9%	66.2%	—	—	1.51
Not both to score in 2nd half	43.1%	33.8%	—	—	2.96

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score 2nd half only	34.1%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Neither half both score	25.8%	26.4%	—	—	3.79
Both score in both halves	22.9%	21.0%	—	—	4.77
Both score 1st half only	17.3%	15.6%	—	—	6.41

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	59.9%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Both teams to score by HT	40.1%	40.1%	—	—	2.49

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	87.3%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
A half without a goal	12.7%	12.1%	—	—	8.26

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	48.1%	46.9%	37.6%	1.25×	2.13
7+ goals	33.3%	31.0%	3.2%	9.70×	3.23
2-3 goals	16.2%	20.2%	41.0%	0.49×	4.94
0-1 goals	2.4%	1.9%	18.4%	0.10×	54.06

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ to score exactly 1	31.3%	33.7%	30.8%	1.09×	2.97
Jong AZ to score exactly 2	26.3%	27.6%	23.6%	1.17×	3.62
Jong AZ to score 3+	23.9%	22.4%	18.6%	1.21×	4.46
Jong AZ to score exactly 0	18.6%	19.6%	27.3%	0.72×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to score 3+	75.6%	74.0%	25.6%	2.90×	1.35
Heracles Almelo to score exactly 2	15.0%	14.3%	25.8%	0.55×	7.01
Heracles Almelo to score exactly 1	7.5%	10.5%	30.2%	0.35×	9.54
Heracles Almelo to score exactly 0	1.9%	6.4%	18.7%	0.34×	15.63

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo leading at HT	62.3%	69.7%	—	—	1.43
Draw at HT	23.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.96
Jong AZ leading at HT	14.3%	12.0%	—	—	8.31

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo -1: 1	62.0%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Heracles Almelo -1: 2	22.5%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Heracles Almelo -1: X	15.5%	17.3%	—	—	5.78

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (0:1)	62.0%	61.5%	24.4%	2.52×	1.63
Jong AZ (0:1)	22.5%	24.4%	55.5%	0.44×	4.10
Draw (0:1)	15.5%	17.8%	20.1%	0.88×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (0:2)	38.0%	39.5%	75.6%	0.52×	2.53
Heracles Almelo (0:2)	44.7%	39.2%	11.8%	3.32×	2.55
Draw (0:2)	17.3%	15.0%	12.8%	1.17×	6.68

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (0:3)	55.3%	70.3%	88.2%	0.80×	1.42
Heracles Almelo (0:3)	28.7%	24.2%	6.3%	3.87×	4.13
Draw (0:3)	16.0%	16.0%	5.7%	2.84×	6.23

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (0:4)	71.3%	76.5%	93.7%	0.82×	1.31
Heracles Almelo (0:4)	16.3%	10.0%	2.1%	4.77×	10.05
Draw (0:4)	12.4%	9.9%	4.3%	2.30×	10.12

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (1:0)	88.5%	86.0%	66.5%	1.29×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	6.6%	7.0%	18.2%	0.38×	14.33
Jong AZ (1:0)	4.8%	3.5%	15.5%	0.23×	28.24

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (2:0)	95.2%	96.4%	84.5%	1.14×	1.04
Draw (2:0)	3.1%	2.4%	8.8%	0.27×	41.22
Jong AZ (2:0)	1.8%	2.4%	6.8%	0.36×	41.29

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	56.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
1st half highest scoring	27.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	16.2%	18.3%	—	—	5.46

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to concede	81.4%	80.8%	72.7%	1.11×	1.24
Heracles Almelo clean sheet	18.6%	19.2%	27.3%	0.70×	5.21

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo clean sheet in 1st half	51.0%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Heracles Almelo to concede in 1st half	49.0%	44.3%	—	—	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to concede in 2nd half	63.6%	58.9%	—	—	1.70
Heracles Almelo clean sheet in 2nd half	36.4%	41.1%	—	—	2.44

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo over 0.5 goals	98.1%	96.3%	81.3%	1.18×	1.04
Heracles Almelo over 1.5 goals	90.6%	92.1%	51.2%	1.80×	1.09
Heracles Almelo over 2.5 goals	75.6%	77.4%	25.6%	3.03×	1.29
Heracles Almelo over 3.5 goals	55.8%	58.5%	10.1%	5.81×	1.71
Heracles Almelo under 3.5 goals	44.2%	41.5%	89.9%	0.46×	2.41
Heracles Almelo under 2.5 goals	24.4%	22.6%	74.4%	0.30×	4.43
Heracles Almelo under 1.5 goals	9.4%	7.9%	48.8%	0.16×	12.64
Heracles Almelo under 0.5 goals	1.9%	3.7%	18.7%	0.20×	27.08

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo over 0.5 in 1st half	81.9%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Heracles Almelo under 1.5 in 1st half	49.1%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Heracles Almelo over 1.5 in 1st half	50.9%	49.0%	—	—	2.04
Heracles Almelo under 0.5 in 1st half	18.1%	15.8%	—	—	6.34

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo scores more in 2nd half	50.3%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Heracles Almelo scores more in 1st half	29.4%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Heracles Almelo scores equally in both	20.3%	21.4%	—	—	4.67

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (home no bet)	50.9%	51.5%	60.3%	0.85×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	49.1%	48.5%	39.7%	1.22×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo even goals	50.0%	50.4%	51.7%	0.98×	1.98
Heracles Almelo odd goals	50.0%	49.6%	48.3%	1.03×	2.02

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other HT score	26.8%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
HT 1-0	15.8%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 2-0	13.5%	10.9%	—	—	9.15
HT 1-1	10.6%	10.9%	—	—	9.18
HT 0-0	9.2%	7.2%	—	—	13.98
HT 2-1	9.1%	7.2%	—	—	13.99
HT 0-1	6.2%	7.1%	—	—	14.03
HT 1-2	3.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.27
HT 2-2	3.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.31
HT 0-2	2.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.38

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo at HT / Heracles Almelo at FT	57.0%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
Draw at HT / Heracles Almelo at FT	15.3%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Jong AZ at HT / Jong AZ at FT	6.0%	6.0%	—	—	16.57
Jong AZ at HT / Heracles Almelo at FT	5.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.95
Heracles Almelo at HT / Draw at FT	3.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.98
Draw at HT / Jong AZ at FT	3.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.98
Jong AZ at HT / Draw at FT	3.1%	3.4%	—	—	29.00
Heracles Almelo at HT / Jong AZ at FT	1.7%	3.4%	—	—	29.05

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to score last	69.9%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Jong AZ to score last	29.8%	27.3%	—	—	3.67
No goal scored	0.3%	4.2%	—	—	23.93

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	99.7%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Heracles Almelo to lead by 1 at any time	88.9%	90.9%	—	—	1.10
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	82.6%	87.2%	—	—	1.15
Heracles Almelo to lead by 2 at any time	71.8%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	55.8%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Heracles Almelo to lead by 3 at any time	51.8%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Jong AZ to lead by 1 at any time	37.9%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Jong AZ to lead by 2 at any time	13.0%	10.5%	—	—	9.55
Jong AZ to lead by 3 at any time	4.0%	1.7%	—	—	60.46

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	64.3%	63.2%	78.5%	0.80×	1.58
3-6 goals	58.8%	59.2%	59.3%	1.00×	1.69
1-5 goals	50.4%	53.4%	86.4%	0.62×	1.87
2-5 goals	48.2%	48.4%	72.7%	0.67×	2.07
4-6 goals	48.1%	48.4%	37.6%	1.29×	2.07
3-5 goals	42.7%	43.6%	53.6%	0.81×	2.29
1-4 goals	33.3%	35.3%	74.1%	0.48×	2.83
5-6 goals	33.1%	35.3%	18.2%	1.94×	2.83
7+ goals	33.3%	35.3%	3.2%	11.05×	2.83
4-5 goals	32.1%	35.3%	31.8%	1.11×	2.83
2-4 goals	31.2%	35.3%	60.4%	0.58×	2.83
3-4 goals	25.7%	30.6%	41.3%	0.74×	3.26
1-3 goals	18.3%	18.9%	54.7%	0.35×	5.30
2-3 goals	16.2%	18.9%	41.0%	0.46×	5.30
1-2 goals	7.7%	9.0%	32.9%	0.27×	11.12

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo never behind	61.8%	67.4%	—	—	1.48
Jong AZ never behind	10.8%	12.5%	—	—	8.02

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.8%	51.0%	49.6%	1.03×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.2%	49.0%	50.4%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	50.4%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	49.6%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.1%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	50.0%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	99.7%	95.4%	95.2%	1.00×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	97.6%	95.4%	81.6%	1.17×	1.05
Over 2.5 goals	92.0%	92.2%	62.4%	1.48×	1.08
Over 3.5 goals	81.4%	82.1%	40.7%	2.02×	1.22
Over 4.5 goals	66.4%	66.0%	21.3%	3.11×	1.51
Under 5.5 goals	50.6%	52.9%	91.0%	0.58×	1.89
Over 5.5 goals	49.4%	47.1%	9.0%	5.25×	2.13
Under 4.5 goals	33.6%	34.0%	78.7%	0.43×	2.94
Under 3.5 goals	18.6%	17.9%	59.3%	0.30×	5.59
Under 2.5 goals	8.0%	7.8%	37.6%	0.21×	12.85
Under 1.5 goals	2.4%	4.6%	18.4%	0.25×	21.70
Under 0.5 goals	0.3%	4.6%	4.8%	0.96×	21.73

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	97.4%	97.1%	77.2%	1.26×	1.03
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	91.1%	92.4%	52.0%	1.78×	1.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	78.1%	75.8%	26.4%	2.87×	1.32
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	60.4%	61.6%	96.6%	0.64×	1.62
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	59.5%	55.3%	10.2%	5.41×	1.81
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	40.5%	44.7%	89.8%	0.50×	2.24
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	39.6%	38.4%	3.4%	11.31×	2.61
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	21.9%	24.2%	73.6%	0.33×	4.13
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	8.9%	7.6%	48.0%	0.16×	13.14
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	2.6%	2.9%	22.8%	0.13×	35.00

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	90.8%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Over 1.5 in 1st half	68.8%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Under 2.5 in 1st half	57.5%	62.9%	—	—	1.59
Over 2.5 in 1st half	42.5%	37.1%	—	—	2.69
Under 1.5 in 1st half	31.2%	30.9%	—	—	3.23
Under 0.5 in 1st half	9.2%	7.4%	—	—	13.49

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	96.2%	96.3%	—	—	1.04
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	83.7%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	63.3%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	36.7%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	16.3%	17.2%	—	—	5.81
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	3.8%	3.7%	—	—	27.17

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to score in both halves	73.3%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Jong AZ not to score in both halves	68.8%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Jong AZ to score in both halves	31.2%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
Heracles Almelo not to score in both halves	26.7%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	79.8%	67.9%	58.8%	1.15×	1.47
Only Heracles Almelo scores	18.3%	16.0%	22.6%	0.71×	6.26
Only Jong AZ scores	1.6%	4.6%	14.0%	0.33×	21.74
Neither team scores	0.3%	4.6%	4.8%	0.96×	21.80

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
6 or more goals	49.4%	50.6%	9.0%	5.64×	1.98
Exactly 5 goals	17.0%	17.5%	12.4%	1.41×	5.70
Exactly 4 goals	15.0%	17.5%	19.5%	0.90×	5.70
Exactly 3 goals	10.6%	12.1%	21.9%	0.55×	8.28
Exactly 2 goals	5.5%	7.8%	19.3%	0.40×	12.90
Exactly 1 goals	2.1%	4.5%	13.8%	0.33×	22.17
Exactly 0 goals	0.3%	4.5%	4.8%	0.94×	22.20

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
3+ goals in 1st half	42.5%	40.5%	—	—	2.47
2 goals in 1st half	26.2%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
1 goal in 1st half	22.0%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
No goals in 1st half	9.2%	7.4%	—	—	13.49

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	83.7%	83.7%	—	—	1.20
1 goal in 2nd half	12.5%	14.4%	—	—	6.93
No goals in 2nd half	3.8%	3.7%	—	—	27.17

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ not to win both halves	97.8%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Heracles Almelo not to win both halves	59.3%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Heracles Almelo to win both halves	40.7%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
Jong AZ to win both halves	2.2%	2.8%	—	—	36.32

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to win either half	87.0%	91.9%	—	—	1.09
Jong AZ to win neither half	72.2%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
Jong AZ to win either half	27.8%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Heracles Almelo to win neither half	13.0%	8.1%	—	—	12.39

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ not to win to nil	98.4%	96.3%	86.0%	1.12×	1.04
Heracles Almelo not to win to nil	81.7%	83.2%	77.4%	1.07×	1.20
Heracles Almelo to win to nil	18.3%	16.8%	22.6%	0.74×	5.94
Jong AZ to win to nil	1.6%	3.7%	14.0%	0.27×	26.75

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo by 3+	44.7%	34.4%	11.8%	2.92×	2.90
Heracles Almelo by 2	17.3%	16.9%	12.8%	1.33×	5.91
Heracles Almelo by 1	15.5%	16.9%	20.1%	0.84×	5.91
Draw	11.0%	11.8%	22.1%	0.53×	8.51
Jong AZ by 1	6.6%	7.3%	18.2%	0.40×	13.79
Jong AZ by 2	3.1%	2.8%	8.8%	0.32×	35.59
Jong AZ by 3+	1.8%	2.8%	6.8%	0.42×	35.63

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.