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Hertha Berlin v Karlsruher SC — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 28 November 2026 · GER-2. Bundesliga · 2627

GER-2. Bundesliga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Hertha Berlin win
53.5%
model 52.4%
Draw
23.2%
model 22.7%
Karlsruher SC win
23.3%
model 24.9%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 10.2%
  2. 2-1 9.6%
  3. 2-0 7.4%
  4. 1-0 7.1%
  5. 1-2 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.563.2% Under 2.536.8%
BTTS yes62.9% BTTS no37.1%
Hertha Berlin 1+85.9% Hertha Berlin 2+58.3%
Karlsruher SC 1+72.7% Karlsruher SC 2+37.3%

Expected goals 1.96 – 1.30. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
21/100
Data quality
55/100
Model agreement
96%
★ Best pick
Hertha Berlin (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 43%
52.2% fair odds 1.92
moderate signal · 1133 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 2.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT
84.3% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 383 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Hertha Berlin carry the stronger rating, 1556 Elo against 1454.
  • Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • The model's measured edge in this competition is 0.0032 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Hertha Berlin have an estimated 53.5% win probability, against 23.3% for Karlsruher SC and 23.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.96 for Hertha Berlin and 1.30 for Karlsruher SC.

Why Hertha Berlin

Hertha Berlin carry the stronger rating, 1556 Elo against 1454. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.2%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Karlsruher SC can win

Nothing in the data singles out Karlsruher SC.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Hertha Berlin, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Karlsruher SC, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Hertha Berlin: 46% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 19.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Karlsruher SC: 52% possession, 15.8 shots a match, 15.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Hertha Berlin's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Hertha Berlin are the model's most likely outcome at 53.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.2%. Confidence 21/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.96–1.30 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.11–1.24 2-1 10% 65% 63%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin to win 56.9% 53.9% 43.2% 1.25× 1.86
Draw 21.5% 24.5% 26.0% 0.94× 4.09
Karlsruher SC to win 21.6% 24.5% 31.0% 0.79× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin & both teams score 31.8% 29.6% 22.3% 1.33× 3.38
Hertha Berlin & not both score 25.0% 25.1% 21.1% 1.19× 3.98
Draw & both teams score 17.6% 18.0% 19.8% 0.91× 5.57
Karlsruher SC & both teams score 13.3% 13.3% 18.0% 0.74× 7.54
Karlsruher SC & not both score 8.3% 8.3% 13.2% 0.63× 12.01
Draw & not both score 3.9% 4.9% 6.3% 0.77× 20.54
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin & over 1.5 49.8% 45.1% 34.5% 1.31× 2.22
Hertha Berlin & over 2.5 42.0% 40.2% 28.0% 1.44× 2.49
Hertha Berlin & under 3.5 30.0% 30.7% 28.0% 1.10× 3.25
Hertha Berlin & over 3.5 26.9% 26.1% 15.3% 1.70× 3.84
Draw & over 1.5 17.6% 18.0% 19.8% 0.91× 5.56
Karlsruher SC & over 1.5 17.6% 18.0% 25.7% 0.70× 5.56
Hertha Berlin & under 2.5 14.8% 12.8% 15.3% 0.84× 7.79
Karlsruher SC & over 2.5 14.9% 12.8% 22.0% 0.58× 7.79
Draw & under 2.5 13.5% 12.8% 16.9% 0.76× 7.79
Draw & under 3.5 13.5% 12.8% 16.9% 0.76× 7.79
Karlsruher SC & under 3.5 13.5% 12.8% 20.9% 0.61× 7.79
Draw & over 2.5 8.1% 7.9% 9.3% 0.85× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 8.1% 7.9% 9.3% 0.85× 12.63
Karlsruher SC & over 3.5 8.1% 7.9% 10.2% 0.78× 12.63
Hertha Berlin & under 1.5 7.0% 7.9% 8.8% 0.90× 12.63
Karlsruher SC & under 2.5 6.7% 7.9% 9.1% 0.87× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 3.9% 4.8% 6.3% 0.76× 20.81
Karlsruher SC & under 1.5 4.0% 4.8% 5.4% 0.89× 20.81
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin (1UP) 72.0% 75.1% — — 1.33
Karlsruher SC (1UP) 42.3% 38.6% — — 2.59
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin (2UP) 56.9% 54.7% — — 1.83
Karlsruher SC (2UP) 21.6% 23.6% — — 4.24
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin to win 2nd half 46.7% 45.5% — — 2.20
2nd half drawn 30.5% 34.1% — — 2.93
Karlsruher SC to win 2nd half 22.8% 24.2% — — 4.14
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karlsruher SC under 1.5 in 2nd half 82.9% 84.3% — — 1.19
Karlsruher SC over 0.5 in 2nd half 52.5% 52.7% — — 1.90
Karlsruher SC under 0.5 in 2nd half 47.5% 47.3% — — 2.11
Karlsruher SC over 1.5 in 2nd half 17.1% 15.7% — — 6.35
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin over 0.5 in 2nd half 69.9% 70.9% — — 1.41
Hertha Berlin under 1.5 in 2nd half 66.2% 70.7% — — 1.41
Hertha Berlin over 1.5 in 2nd half 33.8% 29.3% — — 3.41
Hertha Berlin under 0.5 in 2nd half 30.1% 29.1% — — 3.44
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karlsruher SC (+2.5) 82.4% 82.6% 90.6% 0.91× 1.21
Hertha Berlin (+0.5) 78.4% 78.5% 69.0% 1.14× 1.27
Karlsruher SC (+1.5) 65.1% 68.7% 77.7% 0.88× 1.46
Hertha Berlin (-0.5) 56.9% 57.0% 43.2% 1.32× 1.75
Karlsruher SC (+0.5) 43.1% 43.0% 56.8% 0.76× 2.33
Hertha Berlin (-1.5) 34.9% 31.3% 22.3% 1.41× 3.19
Karlsruher SC (-0.5) 21.6% 21.5% 31.0% 0.69× 4.65
Hertha Berlin (-2.5) 17.6% 17.4% 9.4% 1.85× 5.73
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karlsruher SC to concede 87.8% 86.3% 80.7% 1.07× 1.16
Karlsruher SC clean sheet 12.2% 13.7% 19.4% 0.71× 7.29
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karlsruher SC to concede in 1st half 59.6% 57.1% — — 1.75
Karlsruher SC clean sheet in 1st half 40.4% 42.9% — — 2.33
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karlsruher SC to concede in 2nd half 69.9% 66.0% — — 1.51
Karlsruher SC clean sheet in 2nd half 30.1% 34.0% — — 2.95
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karlsruher SC over 2.5 corners 82.4% 81.4% — — 1.23
Karlsruher SC under 6.5 corners 74.2% 71.6% — — 1.40
Karlsruher SC over 3.5 corners 68.1% 67.6% — — 1.48
Karlsruher SC under 5.5 corners 62.1% 61.8% — — 1.62
Karlsruher SC over 4.5 corners 52.6% 53.1% — — 1.89
Karlsruher SC under 4.5 corners 47.4% 46.9% — — 2.13
Karlsruher SC over 5.5 corners 37.9% 38.2% — — 2.62
Karlsruher SC under 3.5 corners 31.9% 32.4% — — 3.09
Karlsruher SC over 6.5 corners 25.8% 28.4% — — 3.52
Karlsruher SC under 2.5 corners 17.6% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karlsruher SC under 3.5 goals 96.3% 97.5% 94.6% 1.03× 1.03
Karlsruher SC under 2.5 goals 87.0% 87.8% 83.7% 1.05× 1.14
Karlsruher SC over 0.5 goals 71.1% 71.8% 72.8% 0.99× 1.39
Karlsruher SC under 1.5 goals 64.8% 63.2% 60.4% 1.05× 1.58
Karlsruher SC over 1.5 goals 35.2% 36.8% 39.6% 0.93× 2.72
Karlsruher SC under 0.5 goals 28.9% 28.2% 27.2% 1.03× 3.55
Karlsruher SC over 2.5 goals 13.0% 12.2% 16.3% 0.75× 8.20
Karlsruher SC over 3.5 goals 3.7% 2.5% 5.4% 0.46× 39.87
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karlsruher SC under 1.5 in 1st half 91.1% 93.8% — — 1.07
Karlsruher SC under 0.5 in 1st half 60.9% 63.3% — — 1.58
Karlsruher SC over 0.5 in 1st half 39.1% 36.8% — — 2.72
Karlsruher SC over 1.5 in 1st half 8.9% 6.3% — — 16.00
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karlsruher SC scores equally in both 40.6% 43.4% — — 2.30
Karlsruher SC scores more in 2nd half 37.5% 37.5% — — 2.67
Karlsruher SC scores more in 1st half 21.9% 21.8% — — 4.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin (away no bet) 72.5% 68.4% 62.4% 1.10× 1.46
Draw (away no bet) 27.5% 31.6% 37.6% 0.84× 3.16
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karlsruher SC even goals 54.2% 52.6% 54.0% 0.97× 1.90
Karlsruher SC odd goals 45.8% 47.4% 46.0% 1.03× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 76.3% 81.1% — — 1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals 23.7% 18.9% — — 5.30
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 75.3% 71.9% — — 1.39
Both halves under 1.5 goals 24.7% 28.1% — — 3.56
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 67.5% 62.5% — — 1.60
Hertha Berlin to score 2+ in a row 52.7% 50.9% — — 1.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row 29.7% 25.1% — — 3.98
Karlsruher SC to score 2+ in a row 24.1% 19.6% — — 5.09
Hertha Berlin to score 3+ in a row 24.1% 19.6% — — 5.09
Karlsruher SC to score 3+ in a row 6.1% 5.5% — — 18.18
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin corners (+3.5) 84.0% 79.8% — — 1.25
Karlsruher SC corners (+3.5) 81.5% 79.8% — — 1.25
Hertha Berlin corners (+2.5) 76.6% 74.8% — — 1.34
Karlsruher SC corners (+2.5) 73.6% 70.7% — — 1.41
Hertha Berlin corners (+1.5) 67.6% 65.9% — — 1.52
Karlsruher SC corners (+1.5) 64.1% 61.8% — — 1.62
Hertha Berlin corners (-1.5) 35.9% 38.2% — — 2.62
Karlsruher SC corners (-1.5) 32.4% 34.1% — — 2.93
Hertha Berlin corners (-2.5) 26.4% 29.3% — — 3.42
Karlsruher SC corners (-2.5) 23.4% 25.2% — — 3.97
Hertha Berlin corners (-3.5) 18.5% 20.2% — — 4.94
Karlsruher SC corners (-3.5) 16.1% 20.2% — — 4.95
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 35.9% 34.0% — — 2.94
12+ corners 33.5% 33.2% — — 3.01
9-11 corners 30.6% 33.2% — — 3.01
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 74.8% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 74.2% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 66.5% 67.8% — — 1.47
Over 8.5 corners 64.1% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 56.9% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 53.5% 53.1% — — 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 46.5% 46.9% — — 2.13
Over 10.5 corners 43.1% 42.1% — — 2.38
Under 8.5 corners 35.9% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 11.5 corners 33.5% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 7.5 corners 25.8% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 25.2% 27.5% — — 3.64
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 9.6% 7.4% 10.7% 0.69× 13.51
2-1 9.7% 7.4% 9.0% 0.82× 13.51
1-0 7.0% 7.4% 8.8% 0.84× 13.51
2-0 7.8% 7.4% 6.7% 1.11× 13.51
3-1 6.8% 7.4% 5.4% 1.37× 13.51
Any other score 7.1% 7.4% 5.4% 1.37× 13.51
1-2 5.7% 7.4% 9.0% 0.82× 13.51
2-2 6.0% 7.4% 7.3% 1.02× 13.51
3-0 5.5% 7.4% 4.0% 1.84× 13.51
0-0 3.9% 1.7% 6.3% 0.27× 58.30
0-1 4.0% 1.7% 5.4% 0.32× 58.30
0-2 2.7% 1.7% 3.9% 0.44× 58.30
0-3 1.1% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.31
0-4 0.3% 1.7% 1.1% 1.58× 58.32
1-3 2.4% 1.7% 2.5% 0.69× 58.31
1-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.9% 1.85× 58.32
2-3 2.5% 1.7% 2.8% 0.62× 58.31
2-4 0.8% 1.7% 0.8% 2.22× 58.31
3-2 4.2% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.30
3-3 1.7% 1.7% 2.0% 0.85× 58.31
3-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.9% 1.85× 58.32
4-0 2.9% 1.7% 0.9% 1.85× 58.30
4-1 3.6% 1.7% 2.0% 0.85× 58.30
4-2 2.2% 1.7% 0.8% 2.22× 58.31
4-3 0.9% 1.7% 0.6% 2.77× 58.31
4-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 5.54× 58.32
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin (2nd half DNB) 67.2% 66.7% — — 1.50
Karlsruher SC (2nd half DNB) 32.8% 33.3% — — 3.01
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin leading at HT (DNB) 69.4% 74.5% — — 1.34
Karlsruher SC leading at HT (DNB) 30.6% 25.5% — — 3.92
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin or draw (1X) 78.4% 75.5% 69.0% 1.09× 1.32
Hertha Berlin or Karlsruher SC (12) 78.5% 75.5% 74.0% 1.02× 1.32
Karlsruher SC or draw (X2) 43.1% 46.1% 56.8% 0.81× 2.17
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin or draw at HT 80.7% 83.9% — — 1.19
Hertha Berlin or Karlsruher SC at HT 62.9% 60.9% — — 1.64
Karlsruher SC or draw at HT 56.4% 57.6% — — 1.74
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin or draw (1UP) 78.4% 83.8% — — 1.19
Karlsruher SC or draw (1UP) 43.1% 52.7% — — 1.90
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin or draw in 2nd half 77.2% 75.8% — — 1.32
Hertha Berlin or Karlsruher SC in 2nd half 69.5% 65.9% — — 1.52
Karlsruher SC or draw in 2nd half 53.3% 54.5% — — 1.84
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 55.9% 58.7% — — 1.71
Neither half drawn 44.2% 41.3% — — 2.42
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin (DNB) 72.5% 71.4% 58.2% 1.23× 1.40
Karlsruher SC (DNB) 27.5% 28.6% 41.8% 0.69× 3.50
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin to score first 60.5% 63.9% — — 1.57
Karlsruher SC to score first 35.6% 32.7% — — 3.06
No goal scored 3.9% 4.3% — — 23.07
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 62.8% 56.6% 59.8% 0.95× 1.77
Not both teams to score 37.2% 43.4% 40.2% 1.08× 2.31
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 53.2% 47.3% 49.2% 0.96× 2.12
Not both score & under 2.5 25.4% 33.3% 30.5% 1.09× 3.00
Not both score & over 2.5 11.8% 12.4% 9.9% 1.25× 8.09
Both score & under 2.5 9.6% 8.3% 10.7% 0.78× 12.07
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 78.1% 79.7% 80.5% 0.99× 1.25
Both teams to score 2+ 21.9% 20.3% 19.5% 1.04× 4.93
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 63.2% 66.0% — — 1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half 36.8% 34.0% — — 2.94
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 48.3% 53.2% — — 1.88
Both score 2nd half only 28.3% 27.2% — — 3.67
Both score 1st half only 14.8% 10.8% — — 9.24
Both score in both halves 8.6% 6.8% — — 14.60
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 76.6% 81.1% — — 1.23
Both teams to score by HT 23.4% 18.9% — — 5.30
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 64.8% 59.8% — — 1.67
A half without a goal 35.2% 40.2% — — 2.49
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 42.1% 42.1% 45.4% 0.93× 2.37
4-6 goals 37.6% 35.1% 30.5% 1.15× 2.85
0-1 goals 14.9% 17.0% 20.3% 0.84× 5.88
7+ goals 5.4% 7.6% 4.2% 1.81× 13.20
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karlsruher SC to score exactly 1 35.9% 35.9% 33.3% 1.08× 2.78
Karlsruher SC to score exactly 0 28.9% 27.4% 27.2% 1.01× 3.65
Karlsruher SC to score exactly 2 22.3% 22.3% 23.5% 0.95× 4.49
Karlsruher SC to score 3+ 13.0% 12.9% 16.3% 0.79× 7.76
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin to score 3+ 35.2% 35.5% 22.6% 1.57× 2.81
Hertha Berlin to score exactly 2 27.0% 26.5% 26.6% 1.00× 3.77
Hertha Berlin to score exactly 1 25.6% 26.5% 31.7% 0.84× 3.77
Hertha Berlin to score exactly 0 12.2% 14.3% 19.4% 0.74× 6.99
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin leading at HT 43.6% 42.4% — — 2.36
Draw at HT 37.1% 39.1% — — 2.56
Karlsruher SC leading at HT 19.3% 16.1% — — 6.19
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin -1: 2 43.1% 42.8% — — 2.34
Hertha Berlin -1: 1 34.9% 30.1% — — 3.33
Hertha Berlin -1: X 22.0% 23.5% — — 4.26
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karlsruher SC (0:1) 43.1% 42.7% 56.8% 0.75× 2.34
Hertha Berlin (0:1) 34.9% 30.1% 22.3% 1.35× 3.32
Draw (0:1) 22.0% 24.2% 21.1% 1.15× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karlsruher SC (0:2) 65.1% 72.2% 77.7% 0.93× 1.39
Hertha Berlin (0:2) 17.6% 15.3% 9.4% 1.62× 6.55
Draw (0:2) 17.3% 15.3% 13.0% 1.17× 6.55
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karlsruher SC (0:3) 82.4% 85.4% 90.6% 0.94× 1.17
Draw (0:3) 10.2% 9.9% 6.0% 1.64× 10.12
Hertha Berlin (0:3) 7.5% 5.8% 3.6% 1.63× 17.23
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karlsruher SC (0:4) 92.5% 94.5% 96.4% 0.98× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 4.8% 1.2% 2.0% 0.61× 81.64
Hertha Berlin (0:4) 2.7% 1.2% 1.7% 0.72× 81.87
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin (1:0) 78.4% 78.6% 69.0% 1.14× 1.27
Draw (1:0) 12.8% 12.7% 18.0% 0.71× 7.87
Karlsruher SC (1:0) 8.8% 6.9% 13.2% 0.53× 14.46
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin (2:0) 91.2% 94.0% 86.8% 1.08× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 6.0% 6.4% 7.1% 0.90× 15.69
Karlsruher SC (2:0) 2.8% 2.3% 6.2% 0.37× 43.71
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.9% 48.8% — — 2.05
1st half highest scoring 27.5% 26.2% — — 3.82
Halves equal 22.6% 24.4% — — 4.11
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin to concede 71.1% 73.1% 72.8% 1.00× 1.37
Hertha Berlin clean sheet 28.9% 26.9% 27.2% 0.99× 3.71
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin clean sheet in 1st half 60.9% 63.2% — — 1.58
Hertha Berlin to concede in 1st half 39.1% 36.8% — — 2.72
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin to concede in 2nd half 52.5% 52.8% — — 1.89
Hertha Berlin clean sheet in 2nd half 47.5% 47.2% — — 2.12
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin over 2.5 corners 83.9% 81.0% — — 1.24
Hertha Berlin under 6.5 corners 71.8% 71.9% — — 1.39
Hertha Berlin over 3.5 corners 70.4% 71.9% — — 1.39
Hertha Berlin under 5.5 corners 59.4% 57.5% — — 1.74
Hertha Berlin over 4.5 corners 55.2% 57.5% — — 1.74
Hertha Berlin under 4.5 corners 44.8% 42.5% — — 2.35
Hertha Berlin over 5.5 corners 40.6% 42.5% — — 2.35
Hertha Berlin under 3.5 corners 29.6% 28.1% — — 3.55
Hertha Berlin over 6.5 corners 28.2% 28.1% — — 3.55
Hertha Berlin under 2.5 corners 16.1% 19.0% — — 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin over 0.5 goals 87.8% 87.3% 80.7% 1.08× 1.15
Hertha Berlin under 3.5 goals 83.8% 82.2% 92.4% 0.89× 1.22
Hertha Berlin under 2.5 goals 64.8% 63.6% 77.4% 0.82× 1.57
Hertha Berlin over 1.5 goals 62.2% 63.6% 49.1% 1.30× 1.57
Hertha Berlin under 1.5 goals 37.8% 36.4% 50.9% 0.72× 2.75
Hertha Berlin over 2.5 goals 35.2% 36.4% 22.6% 1.61× 2.75
Hertha Berlin over 3.5 goals 16.2% 17.8% 7.6% 2.34× 5.63
Hertha Berlin under 0.5 goals 12.2% 12.7% 19.4% 0.66× 7.85
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin under 1.5 in 1st half 77.0% 77.0% — — 1.30
Hertha Berlin over 0.5 in 1st half 59.6% 57.0% — — 1.76
Hertha Berlin under 0.5 in 1st half 40.4% 43.0% — — 2.33
Hertha Berlin over 1.5 in 1st half 23.0% 23.0% — — 4.35
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin scores more in 2nd half 42.8% 42.1% — — 2.38
Hertha Berlin scores equally in both 29.5% 27.9% — — 3.59
Hertha Berlin scores more in 1st half 27.7% 27.9% — — 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karlsruher SC (home no bet) 50.1% 51.4% 54.3% 0.95× 1.95
Draw (home no bet) 49.9% 48.6% 45.7% 1.07× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin even goals 50.7% 50.7% 50.9% 1.00× 1.97
Hertha Berlin odd goals 49.3% 49.3% 49.1% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 24.7% 24.4% — — 4.11
HT 1-0 22.2% 24.3% — — 4.11
HT 0-1 12.1% 11.0% — — 9.11
HT 1-1 11.1% 11.0% — — 9.12
HT 2-0 10.1% 11.0% — — 9.13
Any other HT score 7.7% 6.9% — — 14.46
HT 2-1 5.0% 6.9% — — 14.50
HT 0-2 3.0% 2.4% — — 42.01
HT 1-2 2.7% 2.4% — — 42.03
HT 2-2 1.2% 2.4% — — 42.13
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin at HT / Hertha Berlin at FT 36.4% 40.8% — — 2.45
Draw at HT / Hertha Berlin at FT 17.1% 16.8% — — 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 11.7% 12.6% — — 7.91
Karlsruher SC at HT / Karlsruher SC at FT 11.3% 12.6% — — 7.92
Draw at HT / Karlsruher SC at FT 8.3% 6.1% — — 16.41
Hertha Berlin at HT / Draw at FT 5.2% 6.1% — — 16.50
Karlsruher SC at HT / Draw at FT 4.6% 3.5% — — 28.80
Karlsruher SC at HT / Hertha Berlin at FT 3.4% 3.5% — — 28.85
Hertha Berlin at HT / Karlsruher SC at FT 2.1% 3.5% — — 28.90
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin to score last 60.5% 62.0% — — 1.61
Karlsruher SC to score last 35.6% 38.6% — — 2.59
No goal scored 3.9% 4.3% — — 23.07
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 96.1% 95.6% — — 1.05
Hertha Berlin to lead by 1 at any time 72.0% 74.0% — — 1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 57.4% 54.9% — — 1.82
Hertha Berlin to lead by 2 at any time 43.0% 39.3% — — 2.55
Karlsruher SC to lead by 1 at any time 42.3% 39.2% — — 2.55
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 25.5% 25.3% — — 3.95
Hertha Berlin to lead by 3 at any time 21.2% 19.5% — — 5.12
Karlsruher SC to lead by 2 at any time 14.9% 10.6% — — 9.47
Karlsruher SC to lead by 3 at any time 4.3% 1.6% — — 60.79
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin most corners 46.4% 47.0% — — 2.13
Karlsruher SC most corners 42.7% 43.5% — — 2.30
Corners level 10.9% 10.4% — — 9.58
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 83.8% 83.4% 84.7% 0.99× 1.20
2-6 goals 79.7% 78.7% 75.7% 1.04× 1.27
2-5 goals 72.8% 72.4% 70.7% 1.02× 1.38
1-4 goals 71.5% 72.3% 75.7% 0.96× 1.38
2-4 goals 60.5% 63.3% 61.8% 1.03× 1.58
3-6 goals 59.6% 59.1% 55.0% 1.08× 1.69
1-3 goals 53.1% 53.2% 59.3% 0.90× 1.88
3-5 goals 52.7% 53.2% 50.0% 1.06× 1.88
2-3 goals 42.1% 43.6% 45.4% 0.96× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.4% 43.6% 41.0% 1.06× 2.29
4-6 goals 37.6% 39.2% 30.5% 1.28× 2.55
1-2 goals 31.1% 35.2% 34.8% 1.01× 2.84
4-5 goals 30.7% 35.2% 25.5% 1.38× 2.84
5-6 goals 19.2% 18.8% 14.1% 1.34× 5.31
7+ goals 5.4% 8.9% 4.2% 2.12× 11.28
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin never behind 53.8% 62.4% — — 1.60
Karlsruher SC never behind 24.1% 25.1% — — 3.98
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.2% 50.9% 50.6% 1.01× 1.96
Even number of goals 50.8% 49.1% 49.4% 0.99× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.2% 51.8% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 46.8% 48.2% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.3% 51.9% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.7% 48.1% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 96.1% 95.4% 93.7% 1.02× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 87.7% 87.6% 90.9% 0.96× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 85.1% 87.6% 79.7% 1.10× 1.14
Under 4.5 goals 75.4% 77.3% 81.9% 0.94× 1.29
Over 2.5 goals 65.0% 66.3% 59.0% 1.12× 1.51
Under 3.5 goals 57.0% 58.6% 65.5% 0.90× 1.71
Over 3.5 goals 43.0% 41.4% 34.5% 1.20× 2.42
Under 2.5 goals 35.0% 33.7% 41.0% 0.82× 2.97
Over 4.5 goals 24.6% 22.7% 18.1% 1.25× 4.40
Under 1.5 goals 14.9% 12.4% 20.3% 0.61× 8.05
Over 5.5 goals 12.3% 12.4% 9.1% 1.36× 8.06
Under 0.5 goals 3.9% 4.6% 6.3% 0.72× 21.84
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 94.2% 92.4% 95.6% 0.97× 1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 86.0% 86.7% 90.0% 0.96× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 81.3% 81.1% 74.4% 1.09× 1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 69.9% 67.5% 78.3% 0.86× 1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 55.1% 55.7% 45.7% 1.22× 1.79
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 44.9% 44.3% 54.3% 0.82× 2.26
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 30.1% 32.5% 21.7% 1.50× 3.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 18.7% 18.9% 25.6% 0.74× 5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 14.0% 13.3% 10.0% 1.32× 7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 5.8% 7.6% 4.4% 1.73× 13.18
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 83.3% 85.8% — — 1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half 75.3% 78.4% — — 1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half 59.0% 63.9% — — 1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half 41.0% 36.1% — — 2.77
Under 0.5 in 1st half 24.7% 21.6% — — 4.63
Over 2.5 in 1st half 16.7% 14.2% — — 7.04
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 85.6% 85.4% — — 1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 69.2% 68.8% — — 1.45
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 58.0% 55.2% — — 1.81
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 42.0% 44.8% — — 2.23
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 30.8% 31.2% — — 3.20
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 14.4% 14.6% — — 6.84
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karlsruher SC not to score in both halves 79.5% 78.6% — — 1.27
Hertha Berlin not to score in both halves 58.3% 58.3% — — 1.72
Hertha Berlin to score in both halves 41.7% 41.7% — — 2.40
Karlsruher SC to score in both halves 20.5% 21.4% — — 4.68
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 62.8% 60.2% 59.8% 1.01× 1.66
Only Hertha Berlin scores 25.0% 26.0% 21.1% 1.24× 3.85
Only Karlsruher SC scores 8.3% 7.1% 13.2% 0.54× 14.02
Neither team scores 3.9% 4.6% 6.3% 0.73× 21.63
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.0% 22.6% 24.6% 0.92× 4.43
Exactly 2 goals 20.1% 22.6% 20.9% 1.08× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 18.4% 17.5% 16.6% 1.05× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 12.3% 12.1% 9.1% 1.33× 8.25
6 or more goals 12.3% 12.1% 9.1% 1.33× 8.25
Exactly 1 goals 11.0% 12.1% 14.1% 0.86× 8.25
Exactly 0 goals 3.9% 4.5% 6.3% 0.70× 22.36
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 34.4% 35.7% — — 2.80
No goals in 1st half 24.7% 21.5% — — 4.65
2 goals in 1st half 24.3% 21.5% — — 4.65
3+ goals in 1st half 16.7% 15.6% — — 6.42
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 58.0% 54.2% — — 1.85
1 goal in 2nd half 27.6% 29.4% — — 3.40
No goals in 2nd half 14.4% 14.5% — — 6.90
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karlsruher SC not to win both halves 95.6% 97.2% — — 1.03
Hertha Berlin not to win both halves 79.5% 75.5% — — 1.32
Hertha Berlin to win both halves 20.5% 24.5% — — 4.09
Karlsruher SC to win both halves 4.4% 2.8% — — 35.20
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin to win either half 69.9% 67.9% — — 1.47
Karlsruher SC to win neither half 62.4% 64.9% — — 1.54
Karlsruher SC to win either half 37.6% 35.1% — — 2.85
Hertha Berlin to win neither half 30.1% 32.1% — — 3.11
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Karlsruher SC not to win to nil 91.7% 92.1% 86.8% 1.06× 1.09
Hertha Berlin not to win to nil 75.0% 75.4% 78.9% 0.95× 1.33
Hertha Berlin to win to nil 25.0% 24.6% 21.1% 1.17× 4.06
Karlsruher SC to win to nil 8.3% 7.9% 13.2% 0.60× 12.61
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hertha Berlin by 1 22.0% 24.1% 21.1% 1.15× 4.15
Draw 21.5% 24.1% 26.0% 0.93× 4.15
Hertha Berlin by 2 17.3% 17.0% 13.0% 1.31× 5.87
Hertha Berlin by 3+ 17.6% 17.0% 9.4% 1.81× 5.87
Karlsruher SC by 1 12.8% 11.8% 18.0% 0.65× 8.51
Karlsruher SC by 2 6.0% 7.2% 7.1% 1.01× 13.91
Karlsruher SC by 3+ 2.8% 2.7% 6.2% 0.44× 36.84
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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