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Hibernian v Dundee United — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 21 November 2026 · SCO-Premiership · 2627

SCO-Premiership results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Hibernian win
55.7%
model 57.5%
Draw
22.2%
model 21.8%
Dundee United win
22.1%
model 20.7%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 10.2%
  2. 1-0 9.9%
  3. 2-1 9.9%
  4. 2-0 9.4%
  5. 3-1 6.3%

Goals

Over 2.557.1% Under 2.542.9%
BTTS yes55.5% BTTS no44.5%
Hibernian 1+85.3% Hibernian 2+57.0%
Dundee United 1+65.3% Dundee United 2+28.6%

Expected goals 1.91 – 1.06. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
78/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
Hibernian (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 46%
57.0% fair odds 1.75
moderate signal · 1154 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Hibernian or draw at HT
Double chance 1HT
83.0% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 755 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Hibernian carry the stronger rating, 1587 Elo against 1439.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Hibernian have an estimated 55.7% win probability, against 22.2% for the draw and 22.1% for Dundee United. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.91 for Hibernian and 1.06 for Dundee United.

Why Hibernian

Hibernian carry the stronger rating, 1587 Elo against 1439.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.2%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Dundee United can win

Nothing in the data singles out Dundee United.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Hibernian, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Dundee United, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Hibernian: 36% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Dundee United: 51% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 16.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Hibernian are the model's most likely outcome at 55.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.2%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.91–1.06 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.08–1.09 2-1 10% 61% 58%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian to win 60.3% 58.1% 45.9% 1.27× 1.72
Draw 20.5% 24.5% 23.3% 1.05× 4.09
Dundee United to win 19.3% 19.4% 31.0% 0.63× 5.15
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian & both teams score 30.7% 29.6% 18.6% 1.59× 3.38
Hibernian & not both score 29.6% 25.2% 27.5% 0.92× 3.97
Draw & both teams score 16.4% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.57
Dundee United & both teams score 10.8% 13.3% 16.3% 0.81× 7.54
Dundee United & not both score 8.4% 8.3% 14.9% 0.56× 12.00
Draw & not both score 4.1% 4.9% 5.8% 0.84× 20.50
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian & over 1.5 51.4% 48.8% 36.6% 1.33× 2.05
Hibernian & over 2.5 42.3% 40.3% 28.1% 1.43× 2.48
Hibernian & under 3.5 34.2% 30.8% 30.2% 1.02× 3.25
Hibernian & over 3.5 26.1% 26.1% 15.9% 1.64× 3.84
Hibernian & under 2.5 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 1.00× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 16.4% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.56
Dundee United & over 1.5 14.5% 12.8% 24.4% 0.53× 7.79
Draw & under 2.5 13.5% 12.8% 14.9% 0.86× 7.79
Draw & under 3.5 13.5% 12.8% 14.9% 0.86× 7.79
Dundee United & under 3.5 13.3% 12.8% 22.5% 0.57× 7.79
Dundee United & over 2.5 12.1% 12.8% 20.5% 0.63× 7.79
Hibernian & under 1.5 8.9% 7.9% 9.5% 0.83× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 6.9% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 6.9% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
Dundee United & under 2.5 7.2% 7.9% 10.7% 0.74× 12.63
Dundee United & over 3.5 6.0% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
Dundee United & under 1.5 4.7% 4.8% 6.8% 0.70× 20.81
Draw & under 1.5 4.1% 4.8% 5.8% 0.83× 20.82
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian (1UP) 73.6% 75.3% — — 1.33
Dundee United (1UP) 38.5% 34.3% — — 2.92
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian (2UP) 60.3% 68.0% — — 1.47
Dundee United (2UP) 19.3% 17.1% — — 5.84
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian to win 2nd half 48.9% 45.3% — — 2.21
2nd half drawn 30.8% 34.0% — — 2.95
Dundee United to win 2nd half 20.4% 24.2% — — 4.13
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United under 1.5 in 2nd half 86.1% 87.0% — — 1.15
Dundee United under 0.5 in 2nd half 52.1% 52.4% — — 1.91
Dundee United over 0.5 in 2nd half 47.9% 47.6% — — 2.10
Dundee United over 1.5 in 2nd half 13.9% 13.0% — — 7.72
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian over 0.5 in 2nd half 69.4% 70.9% — — 1.41
Hibernian under 1.5 in 2nd half 66.8% 70.7% — — 1.41
Hibernian over 1.5 in 2nd half 33.2% 29.3% — — 3.42
Hibernian under 0.5 in 2nd half 30.6% 29.1% — — 3.43
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (+2.5) 81.3% 82.6% 87.8% 0.94× 1.21
Hibernian (+0.5) 80.7% 82.6% 69.0% 1.20× 1.21
Dundee United (+1.5) 63.0% 63.0% 73.6% 0.86× 1.59
Hibernian (-0.5) 60.3% 62.9% 45.9% 1.37× 1.59
Dundee United (+0.5) 39.7% 37.1% 54.1% 0.68× 2.70
Hibernian (-1.5) 37.0% 37.0% 26.4% 1.40× 2.70
Dundee United (-0.5) 19.3% 17.4% 31.0% 0.56× 5.73
Hibernian (-2.5) 18.7% 17.4% 12.2% 1.43× 5.74
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to concede 87.5% 86.3% 79.5% 1.08× 1.16
Dundee United clean sheet 12.5% 13.7% 20.5% 0.67× 7.29
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to concede in 1st half 59.1% 56.6% — — 1.77
Dundee United clean sheet in 1st half 40.9% 43.4% — — 2.30
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to concede in 2nd half 69.4% 65.9% — — 1.52
Dundee United clean sheet in 2nd half 30.6% 34.1% — — 2.93
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United under 6.5 corners 83.1% 81.4% — — 1.23
Dundee United over 2.5 corners 75.8% 76.0% — — 1.32
Dundee United under 5.5 corners 72.4% 71.6% — — 1.40
Dundee United over 3.5 corners 58.8% 57.2% — — 1.75
Dundee United under 4.5 corners 58.2% 57.2% — — 1.75
Dundee United over 4.5 corners 41.8% 42.8% — — 2.34
Dundee United under 3.5 corners 41.2% 42.8% — — 2.34
Dundee United over 5.5 corners 27.6% 28.4% — — 3.52
Dundee United under 2.5 corners 24.2% 24.0% — — 4.17
Dundee United over 6.5 corners 16.9% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United under 3.5 goals 97.5% 97.5% 96.3% 1.01× 1.03
Dundee United under 2.5 goals 90.3% 92.3% 85.5% 1.08× 1.08
Dundee United under 1.5 goals 70.4% 71.8% 63.2% 1.14× 1.39
Dundee United over 0.5 goals 66.3% 68.0% 66.9% 1.02× 1.47
Dundee United under 0.5 goals 33.7% 32.0% 33.1% 0.97× 3.13
Dundee United over 1.5 goals 29.6% 28.2% 36.8% 0.77× 3.55
Dundee United over 2.5 goals 9.7% 7.7% 14.5% 0.53× 13.05
Dundee United over 3.5 goals 2.5% 2.5% 3.7% 0.67× 39.84
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United under 1.5 in 1st half 92.9% 93.9% — — 1.06
Dundee United under 0.5 in 1st half 64.7% 63.3% — — 1.58
Dundee United over 0.5 in 1st half 35.3% 36.7% — — 2.73
Dundee United over 1.5 in 1st half 7.1% 6.1% — — 16.52
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United scores equally in both 44.0% 43.7% — — 2.29
Dundee United scores more in 2nd half 35.1% 37.3% — — 2.68
Dundee United scores more in 1st half 20.9% 21.7% — — 4.60
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian (away no bet) 74.7% 68.5% 66.3% 1.03× 1.46
Draw (away no bet) 25.3% 31.5% 33.7% 0.93× 3.17
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United even goals 55.7% 56.9% 57.6% 0.99× 1.76
Dundee United odd goals 44.3% 43.1% 42.4% 1.02× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 79.0% 81.0% — — 1.24
Both halves over 1.5 goals 21.0% 19.0% — — 5.25
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 72.1% 67.6% — — 1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals 27.9% 32.4% — — 3.09
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 65.3% 62.3% — — 1.60
Hibernian to score 2+ in a row 53.0% 50.9% — — 1.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row 28.7% 25.0% — — 4.00
Hibernian to score 3+ in a row 24.6% 19.6% — — 5.11
Dundee United to score 2+ in a row 19.9% 16.2% — — 6.17
Dundee United to score 3+ in a row 4.5% 2.6% — — 38.24
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian corners (+3.5) 92.0% 89.6% — — 1.12
Hibernian corners (+2.5) 87.1% 84.5% — — 1.18
Hibernian corners (+1.5) 80.3% 79.8% — — 1.25
Dundee United corners (+3.5) 70.0% 65.9% — — 1.52
Dundee United corners (+2.5) 60.1% 61.8% — — 1.62
Hibernian corners (-1.5) 50.7% 52.4% — — 1.91
Dundee United corners (+1.5) 49.3% 47.6% — — 2.10
Hibernian corners (-2.5) 39.9% 38.2% — — 2.62
Hibernian corners (-3.5) 30.0% 34.1% — — 2.93
Dundee United corners (-1.5) 19.7% 20.2% — — 4.94
Dundee United corners (-2.5) 12.9% 15.5% — — 6.45
Dundee United corners (-3.5) 8.0% 10.4% — — 9.60
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 34.8% 33.2% — — 3.01
12+ corners 34.2% 33.2% — — 3.01
9-11 corners 31.0% 33.2% — — 3.01
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 75.2% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 12.5 corners 74.3% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 65.8% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 65.2% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 10.5 corners 56.1% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 54.5% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 45.5% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 43.9% 42.1% — — 2.37
Under 8.5 corners 34.8% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 11.5 corners 34.2% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 12.5 corners 25.7% 27.5% — — 3.64
Under 7.5 corners 24.8% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 8.9% 7.4% 9.5% 0.78× 13.51
1-1 9.4% 7.4% 9.3% 0.80× 13.51
2-0 9.1% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.51
2-1 9.9% 7.4% 7.0% 1.05× 13.51
3-1 6.9% 7.4% 5.6% 1.33× 13.51
Any other score 6.5% 7.4% 4.1% 1.79× 13.51
1-2 5.2% 7.4% 8.9% 0.83× 13.51
2-2 5.4% 7.4% 6.6% 1.12× 13.51
3-0 6.3% 7.4% 5.6% 1.33× 13.51
0-0 4.1% 1.7% 5.8% 0.30× 58.30
0-1 4.7% 1.7% 6.8% 0.25× 58.29
0-2 2.5% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.31
0-3 0.9% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.31
0-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 4.15× 58.32
1-3 1.9% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.31
1-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.8% 2.07× 58.32
2-3 2.0% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.31
2-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.8% 2.07× 58.32
3-2 3.7% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.30
3-3 1.4% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.31
3-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.4% 4.15× 58.32
4-0 3.3% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.30
4-1 3.6% 1.7% 1.4% 1.19× 58.30
4-2 1.9% 1.7% 0.6% 2.77× 58.31
4-3 0.7% 1.7% 0.8% 2.07× 58.32
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 8.30× 58.32
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian (2nd half DNB) 70.5% 71.1% — — 1.41
Dundee United (2nd half DNB) 29.5% 28.9% — — 3.46
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian leading at HT (DNB) 72.3% 74.5% — — 1.34
Dundee United leading at HT (DNB) 27.7% 25.5% — — 3.92
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian or draw (1X) 80.7% 80.6% 69.0% 1.17× 1.24
Hibernian or Dundee United (12) 79.5% 75.5% 76.7% 0.99× 1.32
Dundee United or draw (X2) 39.7% 41.9% 54.1% 0.77× 2.39
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian or draw at HT 82.8% 84.1% — — 1.19
Hibernian or Dundee United at HT 62.2% 60.9% — — 1.64
Dundee United or draw at HT 55.0% 48.7% — — 2.05
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian or draw (1UP) 80.7% 88.6% — — 1.13
Dundee United or draw (1UP) 39.7% 41.7% — — 2.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian or draw in 2nd half 79.6% 75.8% — — 1.32
Hibernian or Dundee United in 2nd half 69.2% 66.0% — — 1.51
Dundee United or draw in 2nd half 51.2% 54.7% — — 1.83
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 57.0% 58.8% — — 1.70
Neither half drawn 43.0% 41.2% — — 2.43
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian (DNB) 75.8% 74.7% 59.7% 1.25× 1.34
Dundee United (DNB) 24.2% 25.3% 40.3% 0.63× 3.95
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian to score first 63.0% 64.0% — — 1.56
Dundee United to score first 32.9% 27.8% — — 3.60
No goal scored 4.1% 4.4% — — 22.81
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 57.9% 55.0% 52.3% 1.05× 1.82
Not both teams to score 42.1% 45.0% 47.7% 0.94× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 48.5% 44.3% 43.2% 1.03× 2.26
Not both score & under 2.5 29.3% 33.3% 34.1% 0.98× 3.00
Not both score & over 2.5 12.8% 12.4% 13.8% 0.89× 8.09
Both score & under 2.5 9.4% 8.3% 9.3% 0.89× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 81.8% 82.6% 83.9% 0.99× 1.21
Both teams to score 2+ 18.2% 17.4% 16.1% 1.08× 5.75
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 66.8% 67.2% — — 1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half 33.2% 32.8% — — 3.05
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 52.9% 54.8% — — 1.83
Both score 2nd half only 26.3% 26.7% — — 3.74
Both score 1st half only 13.9% 10.8% — — 9.30
Both score in both halves 6.9% 6.8% — — 14.76
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 79.2% 81.0% — — 1.23
Both teams to score by HT 20.8% 19.0% — — 5.27
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 61.8% 59.3% — — 1.69
A half without a goal 38.2% 40.7% — — 2.46
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 43.3% 42.2% 45.7% 0.92× 2.37
4-6 goals 34.7% 30.8% 31.2% 0.99× 3.25
0-1 goals 17.7% 20.2% 21.7% 0.93× 4.94
7+ goals 4.2% 1.8% 1.9% 0.99× 54.13
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to score exactly 1 36.7% 35.9% 30.4% 1.18× 2.78
Dundee United to score exactly 0 33.7% 33.8% 33.1% 1.02× 2.96
Dundee United to score exactly 2 19.9% 19.6% 22.5% 0.87× 5.12
Dundee United to score 3+ 9.7% 8.6% 14.5% 0.59× 11.68
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian to score 3+ 34.5% 32.6% 23.8% 1.37× 3.07
Hibernian to score exactly 2 27.0% 26.6% 25.0% 1.06× 3.77
Hibernian to score exactly 1 26.0% 26.6% 31.2% 0.85× 3.77
Hibernian to score exactly 0 12.5% 14.3% 20.5% 0.70× 6.99
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian leading at HT 45.0% 51.3% — — 1.95
Draw at HT 37.8% 39.1% — — 2.56
Dundee United leading at HT 17.2% 15.9% — — 6.28
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian -1: 2 39.7% 37.4% — — 2.67
Hibernian -1: 1 37.0% 37.4% — — 2.68
Hibernian -1: X 23.3% 23.5% — — 4.25
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (0:1) 39.7% 37.4% 54.1% 0.69× 2.68
Hibernian (0:1) 37.0% 37.3% 26.4% 1.41× 2.68
Draw (0:1) 23.3% 24.2% 19.6% 1.23× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (0:2) 63.0% 67.1% 73.6% 0.91× 1.49
Hibernian (0:2) 18.7% 15.3% 12.2% 1.25× 6.55
Draw (0:2) 18.2% 15.3% 14.5% 1.06× 6.55
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (0:3) 81.3% 85.3% 87.8% 0.97× 1.17
Draw (0:3) 10.8% 9.9% 6.8% 1.45× 10.15
Hibernian (0:3) 7.9% 5.8% 5.6% 1.04× 17.23
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (0:4) 92.1% 94.5% 94.4% 1.00× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 5.1% 4.6% 4.8% 0.97× 21.74
Hibernian (0:4) 2.8% 1.2% 1.0% 1.19× 81.65
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian (1:0) 80.7% 81.4% 69.0% 1.18× 1.23
Draw (1:0) 12.2% 12.7% 17.8% 0.72× 7.87
Dundee United (1:0) 7.0% 6.9% 13.4% 0.51× 14.50
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian (2:0) 93.0% 94.0% 86.6% 1.09× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 5.0% 2.3% 7.6% 0.30× 43.61
Dundee United (2:0) 2.0% 2.3% 6.0% 0.38× 43.80
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.5% 48.6% — — 2.06
1st half highest scoring 27.9% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 22.6% 24.5% — — 4.09
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian to concede 66.3% 66.7% 66.9% 1.00× 1.50
Hibernian clean sheet 33.7% 33.3% 33.1% 1.01× 3.00
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian clean sheet in 1st half 64.7% 63.3% — — 1.58
Hibernian to concede in 1st half 35.3% 36.7% — — 2.72
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian clean sheet in 2nd half 52.1% 52.5% — — 1.91
Hibernian to concede in 2nd half 47.9% 47.5% — — 2.11
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian over 2.5 corners 89.4% 86.2% — — 1.16
Hibernian over 3.5 corners 78.9% 76.5% — — 1.31
Hibernian over 4.5 corners 65.7% 66.7% — — 1.50
Hibernian under 6.5 corners 61.7% 62.3% — — 1.61
Hibernian over 5.5 corners 51.6% 52.6% — — 1.90
Hibernian under 5.5 corners 48.4% 47.4% — — 2.11
Hibernian over 6.5 corners 38.3% 37.7% — — 2.65
Hibernian under 4.5 corners 34.3% 33.3% — — 3.00
Hibernian under 3.5 corners 21.1% 23.5% — — 4.26
Hibernian under 2.5 corners 10.6% 13.8% — — 7.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian over 0.5 goals 87.5% 87.3% 79.5% 1.10× 1.15
Hibernian under 3.5 goals 84.3% 82.2% 92.1% 0.89× 1.22
Hibernian under 2.5 goals 65.5% 67.9% 76.2% 0.89× 1.47
Hibernian over 1.5 goals 61.5% 63.6% 48.6% 1.31× 1.57
Hibernian under 1.5 goals 38.5% 36.4% 51.4% 0.71× 2.75
Hibernian over 2.5 goals 34.5% 32.1% 23.8% 1.35× 3.12
Hibernian over 3.5 goals 15.7% 17.8% 7.9% 2.27× 5.62
Hibernian under 0.5 goals 12.5% 12.7% 20.5% 0.62× 7.85
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian under 1.5 in 1st half 77.5% 76.5% — — 1.31
Hibernian over 0.5 in 1st half 59.1% 56.4% — — 1.77
Hibernian under 0.5 in 1st half 40.9% 43.6% — — 2.29
Hibernian over 1.5 in 1st half 22.5% 23.5% — — 4.25
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian scores more in 2nd half 42.6% 41.7% — — 2.40
Hibernian scores equally in both 29.7% 27.9% — — 3.58
Hibernian scores more in 1st half 27.7% 27.9% — — 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 51.5% 51.4% 43.0% 1.20× 1.95
Dundee United (home no bet) 48.5% 48.6% 57.0% 0.85× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian even goals 50.8% 50.7% 51.7% 0.98× 1.97
Hibernian odd goals 49.2% 49.3% 48.3% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 26.5% 28.4% — — 3.52
HT 1-0 23.7% 24.4% — — 4.10
HT 0-1 11.5% 11.0% — — 9.11
HT 2-0 10.6% 11.0% — — 9.12
HT 1-1 10.3% 11.0% — — 9.12
Any other HT score 7.1% 6.9% — — 14.55
HT 2-1 4.6% 2.4% — — 42.12
HT 0-2 2.5% 2.4% — — 42.26
HT 1-2 2.2% 2.4% — — 42.27
HT 2-2 1.0% 2.4% — — 42.36
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian at HT / Hibernian at FT 38.5% 41.4% — — 2.41
Draw at HT / Hibernian at FT 18.5% 16.8% — — 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 11.5% 12.7% — — 7.90
Dundee United at HT / Dundee United at FT 9.8% 6.1% — — 16.42
Draw at HT / Dundee United at FT 7.8% 6.1% — — 16.47
Hibernian at HT / Draw at FT 4.8% 3.5% — — 28.86
Dundee United at HT / Draw at FT 4.2% 3.5% — — 28.88
Dundee United at HT / Hibernian at FT 3.2% 3.5% — — 28.92
Hibernian at HT / Dundee United at FT 1.7% 3.5% — — 28.98
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian to score last 62.9% 62.1% — — 1.61
Dundee United to score last 33.0% 32.5% — — 3.08
No goal scored 4.1% 4.4% — — 22.81
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.9% 95.5% — — 1.05
Hibernian to lead by 1 at any time 73.6% 74.1% — — 1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 56.1% 54.9% — — 1.82
Hibernian to lead by 2 at any time 44.3% 39.3% — — 2.55
Dundee United to lead by 1 at any time 38.5% 34.8% — — 2.87
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 25.2% 25.2% — — 3.97
Hibernian to lead by 3 at any time 22.0% 19.5% — — 5.13
Dundee United to lead by 2 at any time 12.1% 10.6% — — 9.44
Dundee United to lead by 3 at any time 3.2% 1.6% — — 62.20
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian most corners 61.6% 60.6% — — 1.65
Dundee United most corners 28.3% 31.1% — — 3.22
Corners level 10.1% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.8% 87.4% 87.0% 1.00× 1.14
2-6 goals 78.1% 78.7% 76.7% 1.03× 1.27
1-4 goals 74.6% 72.3% 79.8% 0.91× 1.38
2-5 goals 72.2% 72.3% 71.1% 1.02× 1.38
2-4 goals 61.0% 63.3% 63.8% 0.99× 1.58
3-6 goals 57.1% 59.1% 55.2% 1.07× 1.69
1-3 goals 56.9% 59.1% 61.6% 0.96× 1.69
3-5 goals 51.2% 53.1% 49.6% 1.07× 1.88
2-3 goals 43.3% 43.6% 45.7% 0.95× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.0% 39.2% 42.4% 0.93× 2.55
1-2 goals 34.6% 35.2% 37.6% 0.94× 2.84
4-6 goals 34.7% 35.2% 31.2% 1.13× 2.84
4-5 goals 28.8% 30.2% 25.6% 1.18× 3.31
5-6 goals 17.1% 18.8% 13.0% 1.45× 5.31
7+ goals 4.2% 2.6% 1.9% 1.38× 39.08
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian never behind 57.4% 62.4% — — 1.60
Dundee United never behind 22.3% 25.1% — — 3.99
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.9% 50.9% 51.2% 0.99× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.1% 49.1% 48.8% 1.01× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.5% 51.8% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 46.5% 48.2% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.2% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.8% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.9% 95.4% 94.2% 1.01× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 89.9% 87.6% 92.6% 0.95× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 82.3% 82.3% 78.3% 1.05× 1.22
Under 4.5 goals 78.7% 77.3% 85.3% 0.91× 1.29
Over 2.5 goals 61.3% 61.7% 56.8% 1.09× 1.62
Under 3.5 goals 61.0% 61.7% 67.1% 0.92× 1.62
Over 3.5 goals 39.0% 38.3% 32.9% 1.17× 2.61
Under 2.5 goals 38.7% 38.3% 43.2% 0.89× 2.61
Over 4.5 goals 21.3% 22.7% 14.7% 1.55× 4.41
Under 1.5 goals 17.7% 17.7% 21.7% 0.82× 5.65
Over 5.5 goals 10.1% 12.4% 7.4% 1.67× 8.07
Under 0.5 goals 4.1% 4.6% 5.8% 0.79× 21.81
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 95.5% 97.2% 98.0% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 88.6% 86.7% 92.0% 0.94× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 77.6% 75.9% 72.4% 1.05× 1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 74.1% 72.4% 82.1% 0.88× 1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 50.2% 51.8% 43.2% 1.20× 1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 49.8% 48.2% 56.8% 0.85× 2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 25.9% 27.6% 17.9% 1.54× 3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 22.4% 24.1% 27.6% 0.87× 4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 11.4% 13.3% 8.0% 1.65× 7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 4.5% 2.8% 2.0% 1.43× 35.56
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 85.0% 89.0% — — 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 73.5% 71.4% — — 1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half 61.7% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half 38.3% 36.8% — — 2.71
Under 0.5 in 1st half 26.5% 28.6% — — 3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half 15.0% 11.0% — — 9.06
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 84.1% 83.0% — — 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 72.1% 77.7% — — 1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 54.8% 53.3% — — 1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 45.2% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 27.9% 22.3% — — 4.48
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 15.9% 17.0% — — 5.87
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United not to score in both halves 83.1% 84.3% — — 1.19
Hibernian not to score in both halves 59.0% 58.2% — — 1.72
Hibernian to score in both halves 41.0% 41.8% — — 2.39
Dundee United to score in both halves 16.9% 15.7% — — 6.38
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 57.9% 58.6% 52.3% 1.12× 1.71
Only Hibernian scores 29.6% 26.1% 27.5% 0.95× 3.83
Only Dundee United scores 8.4% 7.1% 14.9% 0.48× 13.99
Neither team scores 4.1% 4.6% 5.8% 0.80× 21.56
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.3% 22.6% 24.2% 0.93× 4.43
Exactly 2 goals 21.0% 22.6% 21.7% 1.04× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 17.7% 17.5% 18.4% 0.95× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 13.6% 12.1% 16.1% 0.75× 8.25
Exactly 5 goals 11.2% 12.1% 7.4% 1.63× 8.26
6 or more goals 10.1% 12.1% 7.4% 1.63× 8.26
Exactly 0 goals 4.1% 4.5% 5.8% 0.77× 22.34
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 35.2% 37.2% — — 2.69
No goals in 1st half 26.5% 28.6% — — 3.50
2 goals in 1st half 23.4% 21.5% — — 4.65
3+ goals in 1st half 15.0% 10.9% — — 9.14
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 54.8% 51.3% — — 1.95
1 goal in 2nd half 29.3% 29.2% — — 3.43
No goals in 2nd half 15.9% 16.7% — — 5.98
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United not to win both halves 96.5% 97.2% — — 1.03
Hibernian not to win both halves 78.0% 75.6% — — 1.32
Hibernian to win both halves 22.0% 24.4% — — 4.11
Dundee United to win both halves 3.5% 2.8% — — 35.79
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian to win either half 71.9% 73.0% — — 1.37
Dundee United to win neither half 65.9% 67.8% — — 1.48
Dundee United to win either half 34.1% 32.2% — — 3.11
Hibernian to win neither half 28.1% 27.0% — — 3.71
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United not to win to nil 91.6% 92.1% 85.1% 1.08× 1.09
Hibernian not to win to nil 70.4% 75.3% 72.5% 1.04× 1.33
Hibernian to win to nil 29.6% 24.7% 27.5% 0.90× 4.04
Dundee United to win to nil 8.4% 7.9% 14.9% 0.53× 12.63
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hibernian by 1 23.3% 24.1% 19.6% 1.23× 4.15
Draw 20.5% 24.1% 23.3% 1.03× 4.15
Hibernian by 3+ 18.7% 17.1% 12.2% 1.40× 5.86
Hibernian by 2 18.2% 17.1% 14.5% 1.18× 5.87
Dundee United by 1 12.2% 11.8% 17.8% 0.66× 8.51
Dundee United by 2 5.0% 2.7% 7.6% 0.36× 36.82
Dundee United by 3+ 2.0% 2.7% 6.0% 0.45× 36.91
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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