HNK Gorica v Rudeš — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 October 2026 · CRO-HNL · 2627
CRO-HNL
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 13.4%
- 2-1 9.8%
- 2-0 9.2%
- 1-0 8.3%
- 0-0 8.2%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 53.3% | Under 2.5 | 46.7% |
| BTTS yes | 56.3% | BTTS no | 43.7% |
| HNK Gorica 1+ | 82.6% | HNK Gorica 2+ | 52.2% |
| Rudeš 1+ | 65.4% | Rudeš 2+ | 28.7% |
Expected goals 1.75 – 1.06. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- At home HNK Gorica average 1.35 xG a match.
Risk factors
- The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.88).
- Data quality is 20/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- HNK Gorica have only 1 matches on record.
- Rudeš have only 1 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
HNK Gorica have an estimated 51.2% win probability, against 28.0% for the draw and 20.7% for Rudeš. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.75 for HNK Gorica and 1.06 for Rudeš.
Why HNK Gorica
At home HNK Gorica average 1.35 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 28.0%.
Why Rudeš can win
Away from home Rudeš average 1.35 xG a match.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for HNK Gorica, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Rudeš, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
HNK Gorica: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Rudeš: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-12 15:20 · team_stats 2026-09-12 06:04 · availability 2026-09-12 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·
HNK Gorica are the model's most likely outcome at 51.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.4%. Confidence 20/100, data quality 20/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.77–1.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 2.12–0.90 | 1-1 11% | 58% | 54% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.