Hoffenheim v Bayer Leverkusen — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 24 October 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Hoffenheim

13:30 UTC

Bayer Leverkusen

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 1,134h before kick-off

Hoffenheim win

36.6%

model 35.7%

Draw

20.7%

model 22.2%

Bayer Leverkusen win

42.7%

model 42.2%

372143

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 9.2%
1-2 8.4%
2-1 7.7%
2-2 7.1%
0-1 5.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	68.2%	Under 2.5	31.8%
BTTS yes	68.4%	BTTS no	31.6%
Hoffenheim 1+	81.3%	Hoffenheim 2+	50.0%
Bayer Leverkusen 1+	84.1%	Bayer Leverkusen 2+	54.8%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.84. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

86/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Over 1.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 41%

60.8% fair odds 1.65

strong signal · 382 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Bayer Leverkusen (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 75%

83.0% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 390 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger rating, 1663 Elo against 1539.
Bayer Leverkusen have created 2.80 xG a match over their last five while Hoffenheim have allowed 1.90.
Away from home Bayer Leverkusen average 1.56 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Bayer Leverkusen have an estimated 42.7% win probability, against 36.6% for Hoffenheim and 20.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.68 for Hoffenheim and 1.84 for Bayer Leverkusen.

Why Hoffenheim

Hoffenheim have created 1.79 xG a match over their last five while Bayer Leverkusen have allowed 1.83. At home Hoffenheim average 1.97 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 20.7%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.68 to 1.84. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Bayer Leverkusen can win

Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger rating, 1663 Elo against 1539. Bayer Leverkusen have created 2.80 xG a match over their last five while Hoffenheim have allowed 1.90. Away from home Bayer Leverkusen average 1.56 xG a match.

Key players

Hoffenheim's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Tim Lemperle (0.40), Andrej Kramaric (0.39), Fisnik Asllani (0.36). Bayer Leverkusen's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Patrik Schick (0.70), Álex Grimaldo (0.46), Ibrahim Maza (0.36).

Availability

2 of Hoffenheim's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Hoffenheim's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Bayer Leverkusen's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Bayer Leverkusen's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Hoffenheim: 59% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 14.5 faced, 0.32 xG a match from set pieces. Bayer Leverkusen: 62% possession, 19.4 shots a match, 14.4 faced, 1.00 xG a match from set pieces. Hoffenheim's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Bayer Leverkusen are the model's most likely outcome at 42.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 9.2%. Confidence 86/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LLDWWDWLLL last 10 scored 15 from 17.9 xG conceded 24 from 19.0 xG

Bayer Leverkusen are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

DWWLWWLDLW last 10 scored 25 from 28.0 xG conceded 17 from 18.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	362242	1.68–1.84	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	342243	1.62–1.83	1-1 9%	67%	67%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen to win	42.2%	44.4%	33.7%	1.32×	2.25
Hoffenheim to win	35.7%	38.1%	41.6%	0.92×	2.63
Draw	22.2%	21.5%	24.8%	0.87×	4.65

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen & both teams score	26.5%	26.5%	18.4%	1.44×	3.78
Hoffenheim & both teams score	22.7%	22.5%	22.2%	1.01×	4.45
Draw & both teams score	19.2%	18.1%	19.1%	0.95×	5.52
Bayer Leverkusen & not both score	15.7%	18.1%	15.5%	1.17×	5.53
Hoffenheim & not both score	13.0%	11.7%	19.6%	0.60×	8.53
Draw & not both score	3.0%	3.4%	5.9%	0.59×	29.17

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen & over 1.5	36.7%	37.3%	27.8%	1.34×	2.68
Bayer Leverkusen & over 2.5	31.7%	33.8%	23.6%	1.43×	2.96
Hoffenheim & over 1.5	30.7%	33.8%	35.4%	0.95×	2.96
Hoffenheim & over 2.5	26.5%	25.3%	29.4%	0.86×	3.95
Bayer Leverkusen & under 3.5	22.0%	21.7%	19.8%	1.10×	4.60
Bayer Leverkusen & over 3.5	20.2%	21.7%	14.1%	1.54×	4.61
Hoffenheim & under 3.5	19.2%	17.6%	21.5%	0.82×	5.68
Draw & over 1.5	19.2%	17.6%	19.1%	0.92×	5.68
Hoffenheim & over 3.5	16.5%	17.6%	20.3%	0.87×	5.69
Draw & under 2.5	12.1%	12.6%	15.5%	0.82×	7.91
Draw & under 3.5	12.1%	12.6%	15.5%	0.82×	7.91
Bayer Leverkusen & under 2.5	10.5%	12.6%	10.3%	1.23×	7.92
Draw & over 2.5	10.0%	12.6%	9.5%	1.33×	7.92
Draw & over 3.5	10.0%	12.6%	9.5%	1.33×	7.92
Hoffenheim & under 2.5	9.2%	7.3%	12.3%	0.59×	13.70
Bayer Leverkusen & under 1.5	5.5%	7.3%	6.0%	1.21×	13.72
Hoffenheim & under 1.5	5.0%	4.6%	6.3%	0.72×	21.80
Draw & under 1.5	3.0%	4.6%	5.9%	0.78×	21.89

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen (1UP)	61.7%	63.5%	52.9%	1.20×	1.57
Hoffenheim (1UP)	56.4%	62.6%	59.6%	1.05×	1.60

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen (2UP)	42.2%	46.7%	36.6%	1.28×	2.14
Hoffenheim (2UP)	35.7%	40.6%	45.0%	0.90×	2.46

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen to win 2nd half	39.9%	37.4%	29.6%	1.26×	2.68
2nd half drawn	35.6%	37.3%	33.4%	1.11×	2.68
Hoffenheim to win 2nd half	24.5%	22.5%	37.1%	0.61×	4.45

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen (+2.5)	92.7%	93.0%	88.3%	1.05×	1.08
Bayer Leverkusen (+1.5)	82.2%	82.0%	75.3%	1.09×	1.22
Bayer Leverkusen (+0.5)	64.3%	63.5%	58.4%	1.09×	1.57
Hoffenheim (+0.5)	57.8%	56.9%	66.3%	0.86×	1.76
Bayer Leverkusen (-0.5)	42.2%	43.1%	33.7%	1.28×	2.32
Hoffenheim (-0.5)	35.7%	36.5%	41.6%	0.88×	2.74
Hoffenheim (-1.5)	17.9%	18.0%	24.7%	0.73×	5.55
Hoffenheim (-2.5)	7.3%	7.0%	11.7%	0.59×	14.37

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen to concede	81.3%	85.2%	78.8%	1.08×	1.17
Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet	18.7%	14.9%	21.2%	0.70×	6.73

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen to concede in 1st half	64.7%	60.2%	51.8%	1.16×	1.66
Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet in 1st half	35.3%	39.8%	48.2%	0.83×	2.51

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen under 3.5 goals	88.5%	88.9%	92.6%	0.96×	1.12
Bayer Leverkusen over 0.5 goals	84.1%	82.6%	74.7%	1.11×	1.21
Bayer Leverkusen under 2.5 goals	72.1%	73.0%	79.0%	0.92×	1.37
Bayer Leverkusen over 1.5 goals	54.8%	52.2%	42.9%	1.22×	1.92
Bayer Leverkusen under 1.5 goals	45.2%	47.8%	57.1%	0.84×	2.09
Bayer Leverkusen over 2.5 goals	27.9%	27.0%	21.0%	1.28×	3.70
Bayer Leverkusen under 0.5 goals	15.9%	17.4%	25.3%	0.69×	5.75
Bayer Leverkusen over 3.5 goals	11.5%	11.1%	7.4%	1.49×	9.05

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen under 1.5 in 1st half	76.1%	79.1%	85.7%	0.92×	1.26
Bayer Leverkusen over 0.5 in 1st half	60.6%	63.8%	45.6%	1.40×	1.57
Bayer Leverkusen under 0.5 in 1st half	39.4%	36.2%	54.4%	0.67×	2.77
Bayer Leverkusen over 1.5 in 1st half	23.9%	20.9%	14.3%	1.46×	4.79

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim (away no bet)	61.7%	57.9%	62.6%	0.92×	1.73
Draw (away no bet)	38.3%	42.1%	37.4%	1.13×	2.38

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen even goals	51.3%	52.1%	53.2%	0.98×	1.92
Bayer Leverkusen odd goals	48.7%	47.9%	46.8%	1.02×	2.09

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	73.2%	74.7%	75.8%	0.99×	1.34
Both halves over 1.5 goals	26.8%	25.3%	24.2%	1.04×	3.95

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	77.5%	73.4%	72.3%	1.02×	1.36
Both halves under 1.5 goals	22.5%	26.6%	27.7%	0.96×	3.77

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	68.5%	65.0%	66.9%	0.97×	1.54
Bayer Leverkusen to score 2+ in a row	43.0%	44.8%	34.7%	1.29×	2.23
Hoffenheim to score 2+ in a row	37.7%	37.4%	42.3%	0.88×	2.67
Either team to score 3+ in a row	28.6%	25.1%	29.5%	0.85×	3.99
Bayer Leverkusen to score 3+ in a row	16.4%	17.8%	12.8%	1.39×	5.61
Hoffenheim to score 3+ in a row	13.0%	12.3%	17.6%	0.70×	8.14

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.2%	7.4%	9.8%	0.75×	13.53
1-2	8.4%	7.4%	6.8%	1.09×	13.53
2-1	7.7%	7.4%	6.8%	1.09×	13.54
2-2	7.1%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.54
Any other score	6.6%	7.4%	5.4%	1.37×	13.54
0-1	5.5%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.55
0-2	5.0%	7.4%	4.4%	1.67×	13.55
1-3	5.2%	7.4%	4.6%	1.61×	13.55
1-0	5.0%	1.8%	6.3%	0.28×	56.79
2-0	4.2%	1.8%	6.2%	0.29×	56.81
2-3	4.3%	1.8%	2.7%	0.65×	56.81
3-1	4.3%	1.8%	6.2%	0.29×	56.81
3-2	4.0%	1.8%	3.5%	0.51×	56.82
0-0	3.0%	1.8%	5.9%	0.30×	56.85
0-3	3.1%	1.8%	3.0%	0.59×	56.84
1-4	2.4%	1.8%	1.7%	1.01×	56.87
3-0	2.3%	1.8%	2.7%	0.65×	56.87
3-3	2.4%	1.8%	3.0%	0.59×	56.86
0-4	1.4%	1.8%	1.6%	1.11×	56.89
2-4	2.0%	1.8%	1.1%	1.59×	56.88
4-1	1.8%	1.8%	2.2%	0.79×	56.88
4-2	1.7%	1.8%	1.1%	1.59×	56.89
3-4	1.1%	1.8%	1.4%	1.23×	56.90
4-0	1.0%	1.8%	3.6%	0.48×	56.91
4-3	1.0%	1.8%	0.9%	1.85×	56.91
4-4	0.5%	1.8%	0.5%	3.70×	56.92

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim leading at HT (DNB)	54.2%	55.0%	55.5%	0.99×	1.82
Bayer Leverkusen leading at HT (DNB)	45.8%	45.0%	44.5%	1.01×	2.22

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim or Bayer Leverkusen (12)	77.8%	78.5%	75.2%	1.04×	1.27
Bayer Leverkusen or draw (X2)	64.3%	61.9%	58.4%	1.06×	1.62
Hoffenheim or draw (1X)	57.8%	55.6%	66.3%	0.84×	1.80

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim or Bayer Leverkusen at HT	69.0%	66.0%	65.8%	1.00×	1.52
Hoffenheim or draw at HT	68.4%	65.9%	70.7%	0.93×	1.52
Bayer Leverkusen or draw at HT	62.6%	63.3%	63.4%	1.00×	1.58

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen or draw (1UP)	64.3%	67.5%	65.1%	1.04×	1.48
Hoffenheim or draw (1UP)	57.8%	63.6%	73.5%	0.87×	1.57

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen or draw in 2nd half	75.5%	77.5%	62.9%	1.23×	1.29
Hoffenheim or Bayer Leverkusen in 2nd half	64.4%	62.7%	66.6%	0.94×	1.59
Hoffenheim or draw in 2nd half	60.1%	62.6%	70.4%	0.89×	1.60

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	55.6%	57.5%	53.7%	1.07×	1.74
Neither half drawn	44.4%	42.5%	46.3%	0.92×	2.35

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen (DNB)	54.2%	54.1%	44.7%	1.21×	1.85
Hoffenheim (DNB)	45.8%	45.9%	55.3%	0.83×	2.18

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen to score first	50.7%	53.4%	43.6%	1.22×	1.87
Hoffenheim to score first	46.3%	45.8%	50.7%	0.90×	2.18
No goal scored	3.0%	3.8%	5.9%	0.65×	26.25

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	68.4%	59.4%	59.3%	1.00×	1.69
Not both teams to score	31.6%	40.6%	40.7%	1.00×	2.46

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	59.2%	52.4%	49.7%	1.05×	1.91
Not both score & under 2.5	22.6%	24.8%	28.2%	0.88×	4.03
Both score & under 2.5	9.2%	8.5%	9.8%	0.87×	11.73
Not both score & over 2.5	9.0%	8.5%	12.7%	0.67×	11.73

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	72.6%	71.8%	79.7%	0.90×	1.39
Both teams to score 2+	27.4%	28.2%	20.3%	1.39×	3.55

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.9%	70.6%	65.6%	1.08×	1.42
Both teams to score in 2nd half	28.1%	29.4%	34.4%	0.86×	3.40

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	43.7%	43.7%	51.7%	0.84×	2.29
Both score 1st half only	28.2%	24.6%	14.1%	1.75×	4.06
Both score 2nd half only	17.1%	18.0%	27.7%	0.65×	5.57
Both score in both halves	11.0%	11.4%	6.8%	1.68×	8.75

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	60.8%	60.8%	79.2%	0.77×	1.65
Both teams to score by HT	39.2%	39.2%	20.8%	1.89×	2.55

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	67.7%	67.2%	66.9%	1.01×	1.49
A half without a goal	32.3%	32.8%	33.1%	0.99×	3.05

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	40.0%	43.4%	39.9%	1.09×	2.31
2-3 goals	39.9%	35.6%	38.8%	0.92×	2.81
0-1 goals	13.4%	15.8%	17.9%	0.89×	6.32
7+ goals	6.6%	5.4%	3.8%	1.43×	18.40

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen to score exactly 1	29.3%	26.7%	32.0%	0.84×	3.75
Bayer Leverkusen to score 3+	27.9%	26.7%	21.0%	1.27×	3.75
Bayer Leverkusen to score exactly 2	26.9%	26.6%	22.0%	1.21×	3.76
Bayer Leverkusen to score exactly 0	15.9%	18.0%	25.3%	0.71×	5.55

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim to score exactly 1	31.3%	30.8%	29.1%	1.06×	3.25
Hoffenheim to score exactly 2	26.3%	27.5%	22.6%	1.21×	3.64
Hoffenheim to score 3+	23.7%	22.9%	27.4%	0.84×	4.37
Hoffenheim to score exactly 0	18.7%	18.2%	21.2%	0.86×	5.51

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim leading at HT	37.4%	36.7%	36.6%	1.00×	2.72
Bayer Leverkusen leading at HT	31.6%	34.1%	29.3%	1.16×	2.94
Draw at HT	31.0%	34.0%	34.2%	0.99×	2.94

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen -1: 1	57.8%	55.9%	—	—	1.79
Bayer Leverkusen -1: 2	22.6%	23.7%	—	—	4.21
Bayer Leverkusen -1: X	19.5%	20.1%	—	—	4.97

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen (0:1)	64.3%	60.2%	58.4%	1.03×	1.66
Hoffenheim (0:1)	17.9%	18.4%	24.7%	0.75×	5.43
Draw (0:1)	17.8%	18.4%	17.1%	1.08×	5.43

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen (0:2)	82.2%	83.0%	75.3%	1.10×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	10.5%	11.6%	13.1%	0.89×	8.60
Hoffenheim (0:2)	7.3%	6.8%	11.7%	0.58×	14.78

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen (0:3)	92.7%	93.2%	88.3%	1.06×	1.07
Draw (0:3)	4.8%	2.1%	5.1%	0.41×	48.06
Hoffenheim (0:3)	2.5%	2.1%	6.8%	0.30×	48.78

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen (0:4)	97.5%	98.4%	93.2%	1.06×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.8%	1.1%	5.2%	0.20×	93.51
Hoffenheim (0:4)	0.7%	1.1%	1.7%	0.61×	94.35

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim (1:0)	57.8%	56.5%	66.3%	0.85×	1.77
Bayer Leverkusen (1:0)	22.6%	23.2%	17.4%	1.33×	4.31
Draw (1:0)	19.5%	17.1%	16.5%	1.04×	5.86

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim (2:0)	77.4%	78.7%	82.6%	0.95×	1.27
Draw (2:0)	12.6%	12.3%	10.0%	1.24×	8.12
Bayer Leverkusen (2:0)	10.0%	12.2%	7.6%	1.61×	8.20

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	47.8%	48.5%	26.3%	1.84×	2.06
2nd half highest scoring	30.4%	25.0%	46.9%	0.53×	4.01
Halves equal	21.7%	23.5%	26.9%	0.87×	4.26

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim to concede	84.1%	84.7%	74.7%	1.13×	1.18
Hoffenheim clean sheet	15.9%	15.3%	25.3%	0.60×	6.55

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim to concede in 1st half	60.6%	63.7%	45.6%	1.39×	1.57
Hoffenheim clean sheet in 1st half	39.4%	36.3%	54.4%	0.67×	2.75

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim under 3.5 goals	91.0%	92.5%	88.6%	1.04×	1.08
Hoffenheim over 0.5 goals	81.3%	82.7%	78.8%	1.05×	1.21
Hoffenheim under 2.5 goals	76.3%	76.9%	72.6%	1.06×	1.30
Hoffenheim over 1.5 goals	50.0%	52.5%	49.8%	1.05×	1.90
Hoffenheim under 1.5 goals	50.0%	47.5%	50.2%	0.95×	2.11
Hoffenheim over 2.5 goals	23.7%	23.1%	27.4%	0.84×	4.33
Hoffenheim under 0.5 goals	18.7%	17.3%	21.2%	0.81×	5.80
Hoffenheim over 3.5 goals	9.0%	7.5%	11.4%	0.66×	13.28

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim under 1.5 in 1st half	72.1%	72.3%	80.8%	0.89×	1.38
Hoffenheim over 0.5 in 1st half	64.7%	60.1%	51.8%	1.16×	1.67
Hoffenheim under 0.5 in 1st half	35.3%	39.9%	48.2%	0.83×	2.50
Hoffenheim over 1.5 in 1st half	27.9%	27.7%	19.2%	1.45×	3.61

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen (home no bet)	65.5%	69.1%	57.6%	1.20×	1.45
Draw (home no bet)	34.5%	30.9%	42.4%	0.73×	3.24

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim even goals	51.7%	50.1%	52.5%	0.95×	1.99
Hoffenheim odd goals	48.3%	49.9%	47.5%	1.05×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other HT score	15.0%	18.9%	6.7%	2.84×	5.29
HT 1-0	14.5%	11.2%	19.3%	0.58×	8.92
HT 0-0	13.9%	11.2%	23.3%	0.48×	8.93
HT 1-1	13.5%	11.2%	9.8%	1.14×	8.93
HT 0-1	13.0%	11.2%	16.5%	0.68×	8.94
HT 2-0	7.5%	7.7%	9.5%	0.81×	12.97
HT 2-1	7.0%	7.7%	4.3%	1.80×	12.98
HT 1-2	6.3%	7.7%	3.5%	2.21×	12.99
HT 0-2	6.0%	7.7%	7.1%	1.08×	13.00
HT 2-2	3.3%	2.5%	1.3%	1.96×	40.24

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim at HT / Hoffenheim at FT	26.7%	27.2%	28.1%	0.97×	3.68
Bayer Leverkusen at HT / Bayer Leverkusen at FT	26.0%	27.1%	20.3%	1.34×	3.69
Draw at HT / Bayer Leverkusen at FT	12.4%	12.0%	10.0%	1.21×	8.31
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.1%	12.0%	13.9%	0.86×	8.32
Draw at HT / Hoffenheim at FT	7.6%	6.6%	10.6%	0.62×	15.26
Hoffenheim at HT / Draw at FT	7.0%	6.5%	5.1%	1.29×	15.28
Bayer Leverkusen at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.4%	6.0%	0.57×	29.21
Hoffenheim at HT / Bayer Leverkusen at FT	3.7%	3.4%	3.8%	0.90×	29.23
Bayer Leverkusen at HT / Hoffenheim at FT	1.4%	3.4%	3.3%	1.02×	29.32

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen to score last	50.7%	53.5%	44.5%	1.20×	1.87
Hoffenheim to score last	46.3%	49.1%	49.8%	0.99×	2.04
No goal scored	3.0%	3.8%	5.9%	0.65×	26.25

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.0%	96.2%	94.1%	1.02×	1.04
Bayer Leverkusen to lead by 1 at any time	61.7%	64.0%	52.9%	1.21×	1.56
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	57.0%	59.9%	55.9%	1.07×	1.67
Hoffenheim to lead by 1 at any time	56.4%	59.8%	59.6%	1.00×	1.67
Bayer Leverkusen to lead by 2 at any time	31.4%	32.0%	23.6%	1.36×	3.12
Hoffenheim to lead by 2 at any time	26.2%	26.0%	33.1%	0.79×	3.84
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	23.4%	19.7%	25.7%	0.77×	5.07
Bayer Leverkusen to lead by 3 at any time	13.3%	11.2%	10.3%	1.09×	8.89
Hoffenheim to lead by 3 at any time	10.1%	11.2%	15.5%	0.72×	8.93

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	82.6%	82.5%	83.2%	0.99×	1.21
2-6 goals	79.9%	78.9%	78.5%	1.01×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.1%	73.6%	71.2%	1.03×	1.36
1-4 goals	69.3%	69.2%	72.3%	0.96×	1.45
3-6 goals	61.6%	62.7%	58.5%	1.07×	1.60
2-4 goals	58.8%	58.9%	60.3%	0.98×	1.70
3-5 goals	53.8%	52.0%	51.3%	1.01×	1.92
1-3 goals	50.3%	51.9%	50.8%	1.02×	1.93
3-4 goals	40.5%	43.5%	40.3%	1.08×	2.30
4-6 goals	40.0%	43.5%	39.9%	1.09×	2.30
2-3 goals	39.9%	39.2%	38.8%	1.01×	2.55
4-5 goals	32.2%	33.9%	32.6%	1.04×	2.95
1-2 goals	28.8%	29.4%	32.1%	0.92×	3.40
5-6 goals	21.1%	24.4%	18.4%	1.33×	4.10
7+ goals	6.6%	8.1%	3.8%	2.13×	12.36

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen never behind	40.6%	50.4%	40.4%	1.25×	1.99
Hoffenheim never behind	35.3%	45.2%	47.1%	0.96×	2.21

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.0%	50.4%	44.8%	1.12×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.0%	49.6%	55.2%	0.90×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	51.0%	51.4%	52.6%	0.98×	1.95
Odd goals in 1st half	49.0%	48.6%	47.4%	1.03×	2.06

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.3%	51.7%	52.9%	0.98×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.7%	48.3%	47.1%	1.03×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.0%	96.3%	94.1%	1.02×	1.04
Over 1.5 goals	86.6%	89.3%	82.1%	1.09×	1.12
Under 5.5 goals	85.6%	89.2%	88.9%	1.00×	1.12
Under 4.5 goals	72.2%	73.4%	78.0%	0.94×	1.36
Over 2.5 goals	68.2%	65.7%	62.2%	1.06×	1.52
Under 3.5 goals	53.3%	53.8%	56.5%	0.95×	1.86
Over 3.5 goals	46.7%	46.2%	43.5%	1.06×	2.17
Under 2.5 goals	31.8%	34.3%	37.8%	0.91×	2.91
Over 4.5 goals	27.8%	26.6%	22.0%	1.21×	3.76
Over 5.5 goals	14.4%	10.8%	11.1%	0.97×	9.30
Under 1.5 goals	13.4%	10.7%	17.9%	0.60×	9.32
Under 0.5 goals	3.0%	3.7%	5.9%	0.63×	27.05

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	92.8%	93.1%	95.9%	0.97×	1.07
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	83.6%	81.3%	77.7%	1.05×	1.23
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	83.3%	81.3%	87.6%	0.93×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	65.8%	68.2%	72.0%	0.95×	1.47
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	59.5%	55.8%	53.5%	1.04×	1.79
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	40.5%	44.2%	46.5%	0.95×	2.26
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	34.2%	31.8%	28.0%	1.13×	3.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	16.7%	18.7%	12.4%	1.51×	5.34
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	16.4%	18.7%	22.3%	0.84×	5.35
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	7.2%	6.9%	4.1%	1.68×	14.49

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	86.1%	88.2%	76.7%	1.15×	1.13
Under 2.5 in 1st half	68.4%	68.7%	84.8%	0.81×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	58.6%	60.8%	41.2%	1.47×	1.65
Under 1.5 in 1st half	41.4%	39.2%	58.8%	0.67×	2.55
Over 2.5 in 1st half	31.6%	31.3%	15.2%	2.06×	3.20
Under 0.5 in 1st half	13.9%	11.8%	23.3%	0.50×	8.51

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.8%	80.4%	73.4%	1.10×	1.24
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.6%	80.4%	84.3%	0.95×	1.24
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	45.7%	51.9%	55.3%	0.94×	1.93
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	54.3%	48.1%	44.7%	1.08×	2.08
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.4%	19.6%	15.7%	1.25×	5.10
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.2%	19.6%	26.6%	0.73×	5.11

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim not to score in both halves	69.5%	67.3%	64.8%	1.04×	1.49
Bayer Leverkusen not to score in both halves	63.9%	62.9%	72.4%	0.87×	1.59
Bayer Leverkusen to score in both halves	36.1%	37.1%	27.6%	1.35×	2.69
Hoffenheim to score in both halves	30.5%	32.7%	35.2%	0.93×	3.05

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	68.4%	61.4%	59.3%	1.04×	1.63
Only Bayer Leverkusen scores	15.7%	17.1%	15.5%	1.10×	5.84
Only Hoffenheim scores	13.0%	10.3%	19.6%	0.52×	9.75
Neither team scores	3.0%	3.6%	5.9%	0.61×	27.86

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.5%	21.6%	18.8%	1.15×	4.63
Exactly 4 goals	18.9%	18.6%	21.7%	0.86×	5.37
Exactly 2 goals	18.4%	18.6%	20.1%	0.93×	5.37
6 or more goals	14.4%	12.5%	11.1%	1.13×	7.97
Exactly 5 goals	13.3%	12.5%	11.1%	1.13×	7.98
Exactly 1 goals	10.4%	12.5%	12.2%	1.03×	8.00
Exactly 0 goals	3.0%	3.8%	5.9%	0.64×	26.53

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	45.7%	51.0%	55.3%	0.92×	1.96
1 goal in 2nd half	33.0%	33.3%	29.2%	1.14×	3.00
No goals in 2nd half	21.4%	18.5%	15.7%	1.18×	5.40

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim not to win both halves	90.9%	93.3%	84.2%	1.11×	1.07
Bayer Leverkusen not to win both halves	87.4%	87.5%	90.5%	0.97×	1.14
Bayer Leverkusen to win both halves	12.6%	12.5%	9.5%	1.32×	7.99
Hoffenheim to win both halves	9.1%	6.7%	15.8%	0.42×	14.92

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen to win either half	58.9%	59.6%	49.4%	1.21×	1.68
Hoffenheim to win either half	52.7%	53.9%	57.8%	0.93×	1.86
Hoffenheim to win neither half	47.3%	46.1%	42.2%	1.09×	2.17
Bayer Leverkusen to win neither half	41.1%	40.4%	50.6%	0.80×	2.48

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim not to win to nil	87.0%	88.9%	80.4%	1.11×	1.13
Bayer Leverkusen not to win to nil	84.3%	82.6%	84.5%	0.98×	1.21
Bayer Leverkusen to win to nil	15.7%	17.4%	15.5%	1.12×	5.74
Hoffenheim to win to nil	13.0%	11.1%	19.6%	0.57×	8.99

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	22.2%	23.9%	24.8%	0.96×	4.19
Bayer Leverkusen by 1	19.5%	17.3%	16.5%	1.05×	5.77
Hoffenheim by 1	17.8%	17.3%	17.1%	1.01×	5.78
Bayer Leverkusen by 2	12.6%	12.0%	10.0%	1.20×	8.35
Hoffenheim by 2	10.5%	12.0%	13.1%	0.91×	8.37
Bayer Leverkusen by 3+	10.0%	11.9%	7.6%	1.57×	8.37
Hoffenheim by 3+	7.3%	6.9%	11.7%	0.59×	14.52