Hoffenheim v Bayern Munich — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 May 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 14
On target
2 – 5
Shots in box
4 – 6
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.10 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-0.66 – +1.79
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hoffenheim win
13.8%
Draw
19.1%
Bayern Munich win
67.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DWLLLWLLWW last 10
scored 18
from 20.7 xG
conceded 21
from 15.1 xG
Bayern Munich are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDWWDWW last 10
scored 34
from 32.5 xG
conceded 10
from 13.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.99–2.35 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.95–2.59 | 0-2 10% | 69% | 57% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hoffenheim 0.66 xGBayern Munich 2.21 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hoffenheim attacking right
Bayern Munich attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19' |
 Bayern Munich |
Konrad Laimer | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 20' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Michael Olise |
| 32' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 35' |
 Hoffenheim |
Adam Hlozek | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pavel Kaderábek |
| 44' |
Bayern Munich |
Thomas Müller | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 45' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tom Bischof |
| 52' |
Bayern Munich |
Joshua Kimmich | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Michael Olise |
| 54' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 57' |
Bayern Munich |
Joshua Kimmich | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aleksandar Pavlovic |
| 59' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Josip Stanisic |
| 65' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Leo Østigard |
| 65' |
Hoffenheim |
Leo Østigard | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Tom Bischof |
| 72' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dennis Geiger |
| 79' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Leroy Sané |
| 79' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Harry Kane |
| 84' |
Hoffenheim |
Kevin Akpoguma | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marius Bülter |
| 85' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Sacha Boey |
| 87' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Harry Kane |
| 91' |
Bayern Munich |
Leroy Sané | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Michael Olise |
Players
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Hlozek FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Leo Østigard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| Kevin Akpoguma DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Pavel Kaderábek DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Arthur Chaves DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Andrej Kramaric AMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Anton Stach MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dennis Geiger MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Tom Bischof AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| Alexander Prass DML | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marius Bülter Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| Bazoumana Touré Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Umut Tohumcu Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Finn Becker Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Ihlas Bebou Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serge Gnabry AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 1.68 |
| Michael Olise AMR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.42 | 1.16 |
| Joshua Kimmich DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.80 |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1.15 |
| Manuel Neuer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Josip Stanisic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 1.56 |
| Eric Dier DC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Konrad Laimer DR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Raphael Guerreiro DL | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Thomas Müller FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Kingsley Coman AML | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Harry Kane Sub | 28 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.87 | 0.18 | 1.05 |
| Leroy Sané Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.32 | 1.17 |
| Sacha Boey Sub | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| Leon Goretzka Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Gabriel Vidovic Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |