Hoffenheim v Borussia Dortmund — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 18 April 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 8
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
1.57 – 0.14
Goals − xG
-0.23 – -0.28
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hoffenheim win
28.8%
Draw
22.5%
Borussia Dortmund win
48.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDWWDWLLL last 10
scored 15
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 19.0 xG
Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLLWLWWWW last 10
scored 20
from 22.3 xG
conceded 10
from 12.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.39–1.87 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.57–1.74 | 1-1 10% | 64% | 65% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hoffenheim 2.23 xGBorussia Dortmund 1.28 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hoffenheim attacking right
Borussia Dortmund attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ozan Kabak |
| 0' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ozan Kabak |
| 5' |
Hoffenheim |
Tim Lemperle | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Wouter Burger |
| 12' |
 Borussia Dortmund |
Daniel Svensson | 0.70 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 13' |
Hoffenheim |
Albian Hajdari | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 28' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Waldemar Anton | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 30' |
Hoffenheim |
Tim Lemperle | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 36' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Fisnik Asllani |
| 41' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 43' |
Hoffenheim |
Bernardo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bazoumana Touré |
| 43' |
Hoffenheim |
Vladimir Coufal | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Carney Chukwuemeka | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 61' |
Hoffenheim |
Ozan Kabak | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 64' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Daniel Svensson | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcel Sabitzer |
| 64' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 86' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ramy Bensebaini |
| 87' |
Hoffenheim |
Ozan Kabak | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fisnik Asllani |
| 90' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Samuele Inácio |
| 97' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 102' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Brandt | 0.14 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Borussia Dortmund
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximilian Beier AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Waldemar Anton DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Carney Chukwuemeka AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Nico Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Julian Ryerson DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| Jobe Bellingham MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Gregor Kobel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Daniel Svensson DML | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.99 | 0.00 | 0.99 |
| Marcel Sabitzer MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Fabio Silva FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Ramy Bensebaini Sub | 49 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.32 |
| Niklas Süle DC | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Serhou Guirassy Sub | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Samuele Inácio Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Julian Brandt Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrej Kramaric AMR | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.86 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Ozan Kabak DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| Fisnik Asllani AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| Vladimir Coufal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| Albian Hajdari DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Leon Avdullahu DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Tim Lemperle FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Bernardo DL | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Bazoumana Touré AML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Wouter Burger DMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.49 |
| Alexander Prass Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Grischa Prömel Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Robin Hranác Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Max Moerstedt Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |