Hoffenheim v Borussia Dortmund — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Hoffenheim

2–3

2.17 – 2.02 xG

Borussia Dortmund

Shots

19 – 11

On target

6 – 4

Shots in box

11 – 10

xG per shot

0.11 – 0.18

Set-piece xG

0.60 – 0.20

Goals − xG

-0.17 – +0.97

AI prediction

ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Hoffenheim win

37.7%

Draw

23.8%

Borussia Dortmund win

38.5%

382439

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

WDWLLLWLLW last 10 scored 17 from 20.0 xG conceded 22 from 16.2 xG

Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWWWWWDDW last 10 scored 17 from 20.7 xG conceded 7 from 11.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	382439	1.55–1.57	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
ai-blend-oos	282449	1.33–1.82	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
dc-xg	352341	1.52–1.66	1-1 11%	61%	63%	Away ✓
dc-xg-oos	352342	1.52–1.67	1-1 10%	62%	63%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim to win	40.2%	44.7%	41.8%	1.07×	2.24
Borussia Dortmund to win	36.4%	34.5%	33.4%	1.03×	2.90
Draw	23.4%	25.1%	24.9%	1.01×	3.99

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim & both teams score	23.2%	21.6%	22.2%	0.97×	4.63
Borussia Dortmund & both teams score	21.1%	21.5%	18.2%	1.19×	4.64
Draw & both teams score	19.3%	18.7%	19.3%	0.97×	5.34
Hoffenheim & not both score	17.1%	18.7%	19.8%	0.95×	5.35
Borussia Dortmund & not both score	15.2%	18.7%	15.4%	1.21×	5.35
Draw & not both score	4.1%	4.6%	5.8%	0.79×	21.79

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim & over 1.5	33.5%	32.1%	35.5%	0.90×	3.11
Borussia Dortmund & over 1.5	30.0%	32.1%	27.7%	1.16×	3.12
Hoffenheim & over 2.5	28.0%	27.3%	29.4%	0.93×	3.66
Borussia Dortmund & over 2.5	25.1%	27.3%	23.3%	1.17×	3.67
Hoffenheim & under 3.5	23.8%	21.8%	21.9%	1.00×	4.60
Borussia Dortmund & under 3.5	21.9%	21.7%	19.9%	1.09×	4.60
Draw & over 1.5	19.3%	18.4%	19.3%	0.95×	5.43
Hoffenheim & over 3.5	16.4%	18.4%	20.1%	0.92×	5.43
Draw & under 2.5	14.5%	13.0%	15.6%	0.83×	7.71
Draw & under 3.5	14.5%	13.0%	15.6%	0.83×	7.71
Borussia Dortmund & over 3.5	14.4%	13.0%	13.7%	0.95×	7.72
Hoffenheim & under 2.5	12.2%	13.0%	12.5%	1.03×	7.72
Borussia Dortmund & under 2.5	11.3%	12.9%	10.3%	1.26×	7.72
Draw & over 2.5	8.9%	7.4%	9.5%	0.78×	13.51
Draw & over 3.5	8.9%	7.4%	9.5%	0.78×	13.51
Hoffenheim & under 1.5	6.7%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.53
Borussia Dortmund & under 1.5	6.3%	7.4%	5.9%	1.24×	13.53
Draw & under 1.5	4.1%	4.0%	5.8%	0.70×	24.72

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim (1UP)	58.9%	56.8%	59.5%	0.95×	1.76
Borussia Dortmund (1UP)	55.6%	56.6%	52.9%	1.07×	1.77

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim (2UP)	40.2%	46.7%	44.9%	1.04×	2.14
Borussia Dortmund (2UP)	36.4%	36.7%	36.3%	1.01×	2.73

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	34.4%	34.5%	33.6%	1.03×	2.90
Borussia Dortmund to win 2nd half	33.0%	34.5%	29.4%	1.17×	2.90
Hoffenheim to win 2nd half	32.5%	34.5%	37.1%	0.93×	2.90

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (+2.5)	91.6%	93.4%	88.4%	1.06×	1.07
Borussia Dortmund (+1.5)	79.6%	81.4%	75.4%	1.08×	1.23
Hoffenheim (+0.5)	63.6%	63.6%	66.6%	0.96×	1.57
Borussia Dortmund (+0.5)	59.8%	56.3%	58.2%	0.97×	1.78
Hoffenheim (-0.5)	40.2%	43.7%	41.8%	1.04×	2.29
Borussia Dortmund (-0.5)	36.4%	36.4%	33.4%	1.09×	2.75
Hoffenheim (-1.5)	20.4%	18.6%	24.6%	0.75×	5.39
Hoffenheim (-2.5)	8.4%	6.6%	11.6%	0.57×	15.16

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund to concede	80.7%	78.0%	78.9%	0.99×	1.28
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet	19.3%	22.0%	21.1%	1.04×	4.55

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund to concede in 1st half	55.7%	58.3%	51.6%	1.13×	1.72
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet in 1st half	44.3%	41.7%	48.4%	0.86×	2.40

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund under 3.5 goals	92.7%	94.4%	92.9%	1.02×	1.06
Borussia Dortmund under 2.5 goals	79.5%	76.2%	79.3%	0.96×	1.31
Borussia Dortmund over 0.5 goals	78.9%	76.2%	74.6%	1.02×	1.31
Borussia Dortmund under 1.5 goals	54.0%	53.7%	57.2%	0.94×	1.86
Borussia Dortmund over 1.5 goals	46.0%	46.3%	42.8%	1.08×	2.16
Borussia Dortmund under 0.5 goals	21.1%	23.8%	25.4%	0.94×	4.20
Borussia Dortmund over 2.5 goals	20.5%	23.8%	20.7%	1.15×	4.20
Borussia Dortmund over 3.5 goals	7.3%	5.6%	7.1%	0.79×	17.91

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund under 1.5 in 1st half	83.9%	84.4%	85.7%	0.98×	1.19
Borussia Dortmund over 0.5 in 1st half	51.1%	55.8%	45.7%	1.22×	1.79
Borussia Dortmund under 0.5 in 1st half	48.9%	44.2%	54.3%	0.81×	2.27
Borussia Dortmund over 1.5 in 1st half	16.1%	15.6%	14.3%	1.09×	6.40

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim (away no bet)	63.2%	59.9%	62.7%	0.96×	1.67
Draw (away no bet)	36.8%	40.1%	37.3%	1.07×	2.50

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund even goals	52.2%	52.5%	53.2%	0.99×	1.90
Borussia Dortmund odd goals	47.8%	47.5%	46.8%	1.01×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	77.5%	82.2%	76.0%	1.08×	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	22.5%	17.8%	24.0%	0.74×	5.61

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	72.4%	66.5%	72.2%	0.92×	1.50
Both halves under 1.5 goals	27.6%	33.5%	27.8%	1.20×	2.98

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	63.7%	59.1%	66.7%	0.89×	1.69
Hoffenheim to score 2+ in a row	38.2%	35.4%	42.1%	0.84×	2.82
Borussia Dortmund to score 2+ in a row	35.2%	35.3%	34.6%	1.02×	2.84
Either team to score 3+ in a row	24.7%	19.1%	28.8%	0.66×	5.23
Hoffenheim to score 3+ in a row	13.6%	11.5%	17.4%	0.67×	8.66
Borussia Dortmund to score 3+ in a row	11.7%	11.5%	12.4%	0.93×	8.70

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.4%	12.7%	10.0%	1.27×	7.89
2-1	8.6%	7.4%	6.9%	1.08×	13.45
1-2	8.1%	7.4%	6.9%	1.08×	13.45
1-0	6.7%	7.4%	6.4%	1.16×	13.46
2-2	6.7%	7.4%	6.3%	1.19×	13.46
0-1	6.3%	7.4%	5.9%	1.25×	13.46
2-0	5.5%	7.4%	6.3%	1.18×	13.46
3-1	4.7%	1.7%	6.1%	0.28×	58.56
Any other score	4.7%	1.7%	5.3%	0.32×	58.56
0-2	4.9%	1.7%	4.5%	0.38×	58.55
3-2	3.7%	1.7%	3.5%	0.48×	58.59
0-0	4.1%	1.7%	5.8%	0.30×	58.58
1-3	4.2%	1.7%	4.7%	0.37×	58.57
2-3	3.5%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.60
3-0	3.0%	1.7%	2.7%	0.62×	58.61
0-3	2.6%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.63
2-4	1.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.51×	58.66
3-3	1.9%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.65
4-0	1.2%	1.7%	3.5%	0.48×	58.67
4-1	1.9%	1.7%	2.1%	0.82×	58.64
4-2	1.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.51×	58.66
1-4	1.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	58.65
3-4	0.7%	1.7%	1.3%	1.33×	58.68
4-3	0.8%	1.7%	1.0%	1.77×	58.68
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.53×	58.70
0-4	1.0%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	58.67

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim leading at HT (DNB)	54.5%	56.1%	55.3%	1.01×	1.78
Borussia Dortmund leading at HT (DNB)	45.5%	43.9%	44.7%	0.98×	2.28

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim or Borussia Dortmund (12)	76.6%	74.9%	75.1%	1.00×	1.34
Hoffenheim or draw (1X)	63.6%	65.5%	66.6%	0.98×	1.53
Borussia Dortmund or draw (X2)	59.8%	55.3%	58.2%	0.95×	1.81

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim or draw at HT	71.0%	74.8%	70.6%	1.06×	1.34
Borussia Dortmund or draw at HT	65.2%	67.0%	63.7%	1.05×	1.49
Hoffenheim or Borussia Dortmund at HT	63.7%	62.1%	65.6%	0.95×	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim or draw (1UP)	63.6%	71.6%	73.5%	0.97×	1.40
Borussia Dortmund or draw (1UP)	59.8%	63.4%	65.1%	0.97×	1.58

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund or draw in 2nd half	67.5%	65.5%	62.9%	1.04×	1.53
Hoffenheim or draw in 2nd half	67.0%	65.5%	70.6%	0.93×	1.53
Hoffenheim or Borussia Dortmund in 2nd half	65.6%	65.5%	66.4%	0.99×	1.53

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.2%	58.5%	54.0%	1.08×	1.71
Neither half drawn	41.8%	41.5%	46.0%	0.90×	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim (DNB)	52.5%	51.1%	55.6%	0.92×	1.96
Borussia Dortmund (DNB)	47.5%	48.9%	44.4%	1.10×	2.05

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim to score first	49.3%	45.2%	50.5%	0.90×	2.21
Borussia Dortmund to score first	46.6%	45.0%	43.9%	1.03×	2.22
No goal scored	4.1%	5.1%	5.8%	0.88×	19.58

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	63.6%	58.5%	59.3%	0.99×	1.71
Not both teams to score	36.4%	41.5%	40.7%	1.02×	2.41

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	53.2%	49.6%	49.5%	1.00×	2.02
Not both score & under 2.5	27.6%	34.0%	28.3%	1.20×	2.94
Both score & under 2.5	10.4%	11.9%	10.0%	1.19×	8.42
Not both score & over 2.5	8.8%	8.7%	12.5%	0.69×	11.51

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	77.5%	81.6%	79.9%	1.02×	1.23
Both teams to score 2+	22.5%	18.4%	20.1%	0.91×	5.45

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	67.9%	68.2%	65.8%	1.04×	1.47
Both teams to score in 2nd half	32.1%	31.8%	34.2%	0.93×	3.14

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	48.6%	54.2%	51.8%	1.05×	1.84
Both score 2nd half only	22.9%	20.9%	27.7%	0.76×	4.79
Both score 1st half only	19.3%	15.3%	14.1%	1.08×	6.55
Both score in both halves	9.1%	6.5%	6.8%	0.97×	15.28

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	71.6%	79.8%	79.3%	1.01×	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	28.4%	20.2%	20.7%	0.98×	4.94

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	63.6%	59.8%	66.7%	0.90×	1.67
A half without a goal	36.4%	40.2%	33.3%	1.21×	2.49

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.1%	43.6%	39.4%	1.11×	2.29
4-6 goals	35.3%	36.8%	39.4%	0.93×	2.72
0-1 goals	17.1%	21.5%	17.8%	1.20×	4.66
7+ goals	4.4%	1.9%	3.7%	0.51×	52.57

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund to score exactly 1	32.9%	33.9%	32.0%	1.06×	2.95
Borussia Dortmund to score exactly 2	25.5%	28.4%	22.2%	1.28×	3.53
Borussia Dortmund to score exactly 0	21.1%	22.0%	25.4%	0.87×	4.55
Borussia Dortmund to score 3+	20.5%	22.0%	20.7%	1.06×	4.55

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim to score exactly 1	31.8%	33.4%	29.4%	1.14×	2.99
Hoffenheim to score exactly 2	26.1%	26.9%	22.7%	1.19×	3.71
Hoffenheim to score 3+	22.8%	24.2%	27.2%	0.89×	4.14
Hoffenheim to score exactly 0	19.3%	18.5%	21.1%	0.88×	5.41

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	36.3%	37.9%	34.4%	1.10×	2.64
Hoffenheim leading at HT	34.8%	33.0%	36.3%	0.91×	3.03
Borussia Dortmund leading at HT	29.0%	25.3%	29.4%	0.86×	3.96

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim -1: 2	59.8%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Hoffenheim -1: 1	20.4%	23.8%	—	—	4.20
Hoffenheim -1: X	19.8%	16.3%	—	—	6.14

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (0:1)	59.8%	58.2%	58.2%	1.00×	1.72
Hoffenheim (0:1)	20.4%	23.4%	24.6%	0.95×	4.28
Draw (0:1)	19.8%	15.4%	17.4%	0.89×	6.49

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (0:2)	79.6%	83.5%	75.4%	1.11×	1.20
Draw (0:2)	12.0%	9.9%	13.2%	0.75×	10.05
Hoffenheim (0:2)	8.4%	6.3%	11.6%	0.55×	15.76

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (0:3)	91.6%	93.3%	88.4%	1.06×	1.07
Draw (0:3)	5.5%	5.4%	5.0%	1.09×	18.49
Hoffenheim (0:3)	2.9%	1.8%	6.8%	0.27×	54.75

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (0:4)	97.1%	98.4%	93.2%	1.06×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.0%	1.1%	5.1%	0.21×	92.52
Hoffenheim (0:4)	0.8%	1.1%	1.8%	0.60×	93.49

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim (1:0)	63.6%	65.6%	66.6%	0.99×	1.53
Draw (1:0)	18.7%	17.1%	16.2%	1.05×	5.85
Borussia Dortmund (1:0)	17.6%	17.1%	17.4%	0.98×	5.86

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim (2:0)	82.4%	83.7%	82.6%	1.01×	1.19
Draw (2:0)	10.7%	11.9%	10.1%	1.18×	8.39
Borussia Dortmund (2:0)	6.9%	6.0%	7.4%	0.81×	16.76

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	41.3%	38.4%	46.6%	0.82×	2.60
1st half highest scoring	35.3%	37.2%	26.5%	1.40×	2.69
Halves equal	23.4%	24.9%	27.0%	0.92×	4.02

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim to concede	78.9%	75.9%	74.6%	1.02×	1.32
Hoffenheim clean sheet	21.1%	24.1%	25.4%	0.95×	4.15

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim to concede in 1st half	51.1%	55.8%	45.7%	1.22×	1.79
Hoffenheim clean sheet in 1st half	48.9%	44.2%	54.3%	0.81×	2.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim under 3.5 goals	91.5%	93.3%	88.7%	1.05×	1.07
Hoffenheim over 0.5 goals	80.7%	81.8%	78.9%	1.04×	1.22
Hoffenheim under 2.5 goals	77.2%	76.8%	72.8%	1.05×	1.30
Hoffenheim under 1.5 goals	51.1%	52.4%	50.3%	1.04×	1.91
Hoffenheim over 1.5 goals	48.9%	47.6%	49.7%	0.96×	2.10
Hoffenheim over 2.5 goals	22.8%	23.2%	27.2%	0.85×	4.31
Hoffenheim under 0.5 goals	19.3%	18.2%	21.1%	0.87×	5.48
Hoffenheim over 3.5 goals	8.5%	6.7%	11.3%	0.60×	14.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim under 1.5 in 1st half	80.4%	84.5%	80.9%	1.05×	1.18
Hoffenheim over 0.5 in 1st half	55.7%	57.9%	51.6%	1.12×	1.73
Hoffenheim under 0.5 in 1st half	44.3%	42.1%	48.4%	0.87×	2.38
Hoffenheim over 1.5 in 1st half	19.6%	15.5%	19.1%	0.81×	6.47

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (home no bet)	60.8%	60.2%	57.3%	1.05×	1.66
Draw (home no bet)	39.2%	39.8%	42.7%	0.93×	2.52

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim even goals	51.9%	52.1%	52.3%	1.00×	1.92
Hoffenheim odd goals	48.1%	47.9%	47.7%	1.00×	2.09

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	21.7%	23.8%	23.5%	1.02×	4.20
HT 1-0	17.7%	18.8%	19.1%	0.98×	5.32
HT 0-1	15.5%	18.8%	16.6%	1.13×	5.33
HT 1-1	12.6%	10.9%	9.8%	1.11×	9.19
Any other HT score	8.4%	6.9%	6.8%	1.03×	14.42
HT 2-0	7.2%	6.9%	9.5%	0.73×	14.43
HT 0-2	5.5%	6.9%	7.1%	0.98×	14.46
HT 2-1	5.1%	6.9%	4.2%	1.65×	14.47
HT 1-2	4.5%	2.2%	3.5%	0.62×	45.75
HT 2-2	1.8%	2.2%	1.3%	1.69×	45.96

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim at HT / Hoffenheim at FT	26.0%	26.3%	28.0%	0.94×	3.80
Borussia Dortmund at HT / Borussia Dortmund at FT	21.6%	22.8%	20.3%	1.13×	4.39
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.5%	12.8%	14.0%	0.92×	7.81
Draw at HT / Borussia Dortmund at FT	12.0%	12.8%	10.0%	1.28×	7.81
Draw at HT / Hoffenheim at FT	11.8%	12.8%	10.8%	1.19×	7.81
Hoffenheim at HT / Draw at FT	5.9%	6.0%	5.1%	1.17×	16.58
Borussia Dortmund at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	6.0%	6.1%	0.99×	16.61
Hoffenheim at HT / Borussia Dortmund at FT	2.8%	3.3%	3.5%	0.94×	30.11
Borussia Dortmund at HT / Hoffenheim at FT	2.4%	3.3%	3.4%	0.98×	30.12

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim to score last	49.3%	46.5%	50.2%	0.93×	2.15
Borussia Dortmund to score last	46.6%	46.4%	44.2%	1.05×	2.16
No goal scored	4.1%	5.1%	5.8%	0.88×	19.58

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.9%	94.8%	94.2%	1.01×	1.06
Hoffenheim to lead by 1 at any time	58.9%	54.2%	59.5%	0.91×	1.85
Borussia Dortmund to lead by 1 at any time	55.6%	54.1%	52.9%	1.02×	1.85
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	52.8%	50.0%	55.6%	0.90×	2.00
Hoffenheim to lead by 2 at any time	28.1%	24.5%	32.8%	0.75×	4.08
Borussia Dortmund to lead by 2 at any time	25.1%	24.4%	23.6%	1.03×	4.10
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	20.3%	19.2%	25.2%	0.76×	5.20
Hoffenheim to lead by 3 at any time	11.0%	10.1%	15.3%	0.66×	9.87
Borussia Dortmund to lead by 3 at any time	9.3%	6.3%	10.1%	0.62×	15.83

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.4%	86.6%	83.3%	1.04×	1.16
2-6 goals	78.4%	77.2%	78.6%	0.98×	1.30
1-4 goals	74.0%	72.0%	72.8%	0.99×	1.39
2-5 goals	72.3%	71.9%	71.2%	1.01×	1.39
2-4 goals	61.0%	62.5%	60.8%	1.03×	1.60
3-6 goals	57.5%	56.6%	58.4%	0.97×	1.77
1-3 goals	56.2%	56.6%	51.4%	1.10×	1.77
3-5 goals	51.5%	50.8%	51.0%	1.00×	1.97
2-3 goals	43.1%	42.8%	39.4%	1.09×	2.34
3-4 goals	40.1%	42.7%	40.5%	1.05×	2.34
4-6 goals	35.3%	38.1%	39.4%	0.97×	2.63
1-2 goals	33.9%	33.2%	32.5%	1.02×	3.02
4-5 goals	29.2%	26.2%	32.0%	0.82×	3.82
5-6 goals	17.5%	15.0%	18.0%	0.83×	6.68
7+ goals	4.4%	2.0%	3.7%	0.54×	50.54

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim never behind	40.3%	48.6%	47.1%	1.03×	2.06
Borussia Dortmund never behind	37.0%	45.1%	40.5%	1.11×	2.22

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	50.1%	50.7%	55.5%	0.91×	1.97
Odd number of goals	49.9%	49.3%	44.5%	1.11×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.4%	51.8%	52.7%	0.98×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	47.6%	48.2%	47.3%	1.02×	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.8%	52.8%	52.7%	1.00×	1.89
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.2%	47.2%	47.3%	1.00×	2.12

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.9%	95.9%	94.2%	1.02×	1.04
Under 5.5 goals	89.5%	89.1%	88.9%	1.00×	1.12
Over 1.5 goals	82.9%	81.4%	82.2%	0.99×	1.23
Under 4.5 goals	78.1%	79.4%	78.5%	1.01×	1.26
Over 2.5 goals	62.0%	61.4%	61.9%	0.99×	1.63
Under 3.5 goals	60.3%	61.3%	57.1%	1.07×	1.63
Over 3.5 goals	39.7%	38.7%	42.9%	0.90×	2.59
Under 2.5 goals	38.0%	38.6%	38.1%	1.01×	2.59
Over 4.5 goals	21.9%	20.6%	21.5%	0.96×	4.84
Under 1.5 goals	17.1%	18.6%	17.8%	1.04×	5.39
Over 5.5 goals	10.5%	10.9%	11.1%	0.98×	9.16
Under 0.5 goals	4.1%	4.1%	5.8%	0.70×	24.56

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.3%	98.2%	96.0%	1.02×	1.02
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	88.1%	90.2%	87.6%	1.03×	1.11
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	78.3%	77.2%	77.6%	0.99×	1.30
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	73.4%	76.0%	72.6%	1.05×	1.32
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	51.1%	51.6%	53.0%	0.97×	1.94
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	48.9%	48.4%	47.0%	1.03×	2.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	26.7%	24.0%	27.4%	0.88×	4.16
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	21.7%	22.8%	22.4%	1.02×	4.38
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	11.9%	9.8%	12.4%	0.79×	10.25
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.7%	1.8%	4.0%	0.46×	54.22

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	80.2%	86.4%	84.7%	1.02×	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	78.3%	79.0%	76.5%	1.03×	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	54.8%	55.8%	58.8%	0.95×	1.79
Over 1.5 in 1st half	45.2%	44.2%	41.2%	1.07×	2.26
Under 0.5 in 1st half	21.7%	21.0%	23.5%	0.90×	4.76
Over 2.5 in 1st half	19.8%	13.6%	15.3%	0.89×	7.38

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.2%	82.5%	84.4%	0.98×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	76.5%	79.6%	74.0%	1.08×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	50.3%	52.7%	45.0%	1.17×	1.90
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	49.7%	47.3%	55.0%	0.86×	2.11
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	23.5%	20.4%	26.0%	0.78×	4.90
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.8%	17.5%	15.6%	1.12×	5.72

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund not to score in both halves	71.0%	74.5%	72.5%	1.03×	1.34
Hoffenheim not to score in both halves	68.6%	70.5%	65.1%	1.08×	1.42
Hoffenheim to score in both halves	31.4%	29.5%	34.9%	0.84×	3.39
Borussia Dortmund to score in both halves	29.0%	25.5%	27.5%	0.93×	3.93

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	63.6%	58.0%	59.3%	0.98×	1.72
Only Hoffenheim scores	17.1%	19.7%	19.8%	1.00×	5.08
Only Borussia Dortmund scores	15.2%	19.6%	15.4%	1.27×	5.10
Neither team scores	4.1%	4.8%	5.8%	0.84×	20.68

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.5%	19.1%	1.18×	4.44
Exactly 2 goals	20.9%	22.5%	20.4%	1.10×	4.45
Exactly 4 goals	17.8%	18.3%	21.5%	0.85×	5.46
Exactly 1 goals	13.1%	11.7%	12.2%	0.95×	8.58
Exactly 5 goals	11.4%	11.6%	10.6%	1.10×	8.59
6 or more goals	10.5%	11.6%	11.1%	1.05×	8.60
Exactly 0 goals	4.1%	4.0%	5.8%	0.69×	25.08

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	49.7%	44.8%	55.0%	0.81×	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	31.4%	34.1%	29.6%	1.15×	2.93
No goals in 2nd half	18.8%	17.5%	15.6%	1.12×	5.71

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund not to win both halves	90.4%	94.0%	90.5%	1.04×	1.06
Hoffenheim not to win both halves	88.7%	88.4%	84.4%	1.05×	1.13
Hoffenheim to win both halves	11.3%	11.6%	15.6%	0.75×	8.61
Borussia Dortmund to win both halves	9.6%	6.0%	9.5%	0.63×	16.62

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim to win either half	56.0%	58.8%	57.9%	1.02×	1.70
Borussia Dortmund to win either half	52.4%	54.4%	49.4%	1.10×	1.84
Borussia Dortmund to win neither half	47.6%	45.6%	50.6%	0.90×	2.20
Hoffenheim to win neither half	44.0%	41.2%	42.1%	0.98×	2.43

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund not to win to nil	84.8%	81.3%	84.6%	0.96×	1.23
Hoffenheim not to win to nil	82.9%	81.2%	80.2%	1.01×	1.23
Hoffenheim to win to nil	17.1%	18.8%	19.8%	0.95×	5.33
Borussia Dortmund to win to nil	15.2%	18.7%	15.4%	1.21×	5.35

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.4%	24.9%	24.9%	1.00×	4.02
Hoffenheim by 1	19.8%	17.2%	17.4%	0.99×	5.82
Borussia Dortmund by 1	18.7%	17.2%	16.2%	1.06×	5.82
Hoffenheim by 2	12.0%	11.0%	13.2%	0.83×	9.12
Borussia Dortmund by 2	10.7%	10.9%	10.1%	1.08×	9.13
Hoffenheim by 3+	8.4%	6.2%	11.6%	0.54×	16.11
Borussia Dortmund by 3+	6.9%	6.2%	7.4%	0.84×	16.15

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Hoffenheim 2.17 xGBorussia Dortmund 2.03 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Hoffenheim attacking right Borussia Dortmund attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
0'	Hoffenheim	Adam Daghim	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Wouter Burger
5'	Borussia Dortmund	Maximilian Beier	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Felix Nmecha
16'	Hoffenheim	Adam Hlozek	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Wouter Burger
21'	Borussia Dortmund	Serhou Guirassy	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Felix Nmecha
22'	Borussia Dortmund	Maximilian Beier	0.90	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Julian Ryerson
29'	Hoffenheim	Adam Daghim	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Tim Lemperle
32'	Hoffenheim	Ozan Kabak	0.37	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Mats Rots
33'	Hoffenheim	Adam Hlozek	0.40	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Ozan Kabak
37'	Hoffenheim	Patrick Wimmer	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Leon Avdullahu
38'	Hoffenheim	Tim Lemperle	0.12	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Leon Avdullahu
40'	Borussia Dortmund	Felix Nmecha	0.10	Set Piece	—	Missed Shot	Julian Ryerson
44'	Hoffenheim	Adam Daghim	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Tim Lemperle
44'	Hoffenheim	Leon Avdullahu	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Vladimir Coufal
48'	Hoffenheim	Tim Lemperle	0.32	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Adam Daghim
49'	Borussia Dortmund	Serhou Guirassy	0.10	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Julian Ryerson
50'	Borussia Dortmund	Daniel Svensson	0.06	From Corner	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
50'	Borussia Dortmund	Joey Veerman	0.04	From Corner	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
52'	Hoffenheim	Ozan Kabak	0.03	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Patrick Wimmer
53'	Hoffenheim	Tim Lemperle	0.48	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Adam Daghim
58'	Borussia Dortmund	Serhou Guirassy	0.16	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Julian Ryerson
60'	Borussia Dortmund	Serhou Guirassy	0.33	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Waldemar Anton
64'	Hoffenheim	Ozan Kabak	0.04	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Mats Rots
65'	Borussia Dortmund	Fabio Silva	0.22	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Serhou Guirassy
66'	Borussia Dortmund	Serhou Guirassy	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Ethan Nwaneri
71'	Hoffenheim	Wouter Burger	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Patrick Wimmer
76'	Hoffenheim	Tim Lemperle	0.02	Set Piece	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
76'	Hoffenheim	Vladimir Coufal	0.05	Direct Freekick	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
85'	Hoffenheim	Mats Rots	0.03	Direct Freekick	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
86'	Hoffenheim	Albian Hajdari	0.00	Open Play	Right Foot	Own Goal	—
88'	Hoffenheim	Robin Hranác	0.06	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Mats Rots

Players

Borussia Dortmund

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Maximilian Beier AMC	90	0	0	2	0	0.94	0.00	0.94
Serhou Guirassy FW	90	1	1	5	1	0.66	0.22	0.89
Daniel Svensson DML	90	0	0	1	0	0.06	0.00	0.04
Julian Ryerson DMR	90	0	0	0	4	0.00	1.26	1.16
Jobe Bellingham MC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gregor Kobel GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.26
Waldemar Anton DC	90	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.33	0.38
Kouakou Gadou DC	66	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.05
Konstantinos Karetsas AMC	65	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.19
Ethan Nwaneri Sub	59	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.02	0.18
Felix Nmecha MC	49	0	0	1	2	0.10	0.09	0.09
Joey Veerman Sub	41	0	0	1	0	0.04	0.00	0.28
Filippo Mané DC	31	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.04
Fabio Silva Sub	25	1	0	1	0	0.22	0.00	0.22
Luca Reggiani Sub	24	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.22
Marcel Sabitzer Sub	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Hoffenheim

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Adam Daghim ML	90	0	1	3	2	0.11	0.79	0.90
Vladimir Coufal DR	90	0	1	1	1	0.05	0.02	0.51
Mats Rots DL	90	0	0	1	3	0.03	0.47	0.16
Leon Avdullahu MC	90	1	0	1	2	0.02	0.14	0.26
Albian Hajdari DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.42
Oliver Baumann GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.36
Tim Lemperle FW	87	1	0	4	2	0.93	0.09	1.02
Ozan Kabak DC	82	0	0	3	1	0.44	0.40	1.34
Wouter Burger MC	82	0	0	1	2	0.04	0.08	0.15
Adam Hlozek FW	76	0	0	2	0	0.47	0.00	0.84
Patrick Wimmer MR	76	0	0	1	2	0.02	0.07	0.15
Bambasé Conté Sub	14	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Andrej Kramaric Sub	14	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Robin Hranác Sub	8	0	0	1	0	0.06	0.00	0.00
Nathan De Cat Sub	8	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Max Moerstedt Sub	3	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Hoffenheim v Borussia Dortmund — Prediction, Odds & Stats

AI prediction

What the chances say

What the model said

All markets

Expected goals by minute

Shot map

Every shot

Players

Borussia Dortmund

Hoffenheim

Cookies on betaider

Sport

Football sections

Preferences

Match