Hoffenheim v FC Cologne — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 3 October 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 9
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
10 – 6
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-1.42 – -0.32
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hoffenheim win
31.3%
Draw
22.0%
FC Cologne win
46.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDWWDWLLL last 10
scored 15
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 19.0 xG
FC Cologne are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DDWDLDLLWL last 10
scored 18
from 22.3 xG
conceded 25
from 19.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.65–2.04 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.77–1.67 | 1-1 9% | 67% | 67% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hoffenheim 1.42 xGFC Cologne 1.32 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hoffenheim attacking right
FC Cologne attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Hoffenheim |
Muhammed Damar | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tim Lemperle |
| 11' |
 FC Cologne |
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 13' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 13' |
Hoffenheim |
Tim Lemperle | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bernardo |
| 15' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Eric Martel |
| 22' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Fisnik Asllani |
| 35' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joël Schmied |
| 40' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson |
| 40' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leon Avdullahu |
| 44' |
Hoffenheim |
Robin Hranác | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Muhammed Damar |
| 46' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 49' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tim Lemperle |
| 50' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Fisnik Asllani |
| 55' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Muhammed Damar |
| 55' |
Hoffenheim |
Muhammed Damar | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bazoumana Touré |
| 57' |
Hoffenheim |
Muhammed Damar | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leon Avdullahu |
| 62' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson |
| 62' |
FC Cologne |
Sebastian Sebulonsen | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dominique Heintz |
| 67' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sebastian Sebulonsen |
| 74' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 87' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Denis Huseinbasic |
| 89' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 95' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bazoumana Touré AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.60 | 0.02 | 0.60 |
| Robin Hranác DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wouter Burger DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.51 |
| Vladimir Coufal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bernardo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.61 |
| Albian Hajdari DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Muhammed Damar AMR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.44 | 0.11 | 0.81 |
| Fisnik Asllani AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| Tim Lemperle FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.43 | 0.64 |
| Leon Avdullahu DMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| Ihlas Bebou Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Grischa Prömel Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrej Kramaric Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Max Moerstedt Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Alexander Prass Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
FC Cologne
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Kaminski FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| Sebastian Sebulonsen DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| Joël Schmied DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| Eric Martel MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 0.62 |
| Timo Hübers DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Marvin Schwäbe GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Kristoffer Lund DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Said El Mala AMC | 78 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.89 | 0.00 | 0.95 |
| Dominique Heintz DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Jan Thielmann AMC | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ragnar Ache Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Linton Maina Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Cenk Özkacar Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tom Krauß Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Denis Huseinbasic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |