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Hoffenheim v Freiburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 December 2024 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

1–1
1.49 – 1.53 xG
Shots
15 – 11
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
11 – 10
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.52 – 0.45
Goals − xG
-0.49 – -0.53
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.91.31.70'15'30'45'60'75'90'Matthias Ginter 67' — goalTom Bischof 72' — goal
Hoffenheim 1.49 xGFreiburg 1.53 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Michael Gregoritsch 2' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Anton Stach 6' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Diadie Samassékou 14' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Michael Gregoritsch 17' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Andrej Kramaric 22' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Maximilian Eggestein 27' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Jacob Bruun Larsen 31' — Saved Shot (0.32 xG, Open Play)Anton Stach 32' — Missed Shot (0.34 xG, From Corner)Arthur Chaves 43' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, From Corner)Valentin Gendrey 43' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Maximilian Eggestein 45' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Andrej Kramaric 48' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Andrej Kramaric 49' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Lucas Höler 50' — Missed Shot (0.47 xG, Open Play)Ritsu Doan 50' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Tom Bischof 52' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Diadie Samassékou 55' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Tom Bischof 55' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Jacob Bruun Larsen 65' — Saved Shot (0.29 xG, Open Play)Matthias Ginter 67' — Goal (0.45 xG, Set Piece)Tom Bischof 72' — Goal (0.06 xG, Open Play)Vincenzo Grifo 76' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Ritsu Doan 81' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Vincenzo Grifo 83' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Dennis Geiger 83' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Eren Sami Dinkci 88' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)
Hoffenheim attacking right Freiburg attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Freiburg Michael Gregoritsch 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Maximilian Eggestein
6' Hoffenheim Anton Stach 0.04 From Corner Missed Shot Andrej Kramaric
14' Hoffenheim Diadie Samassékou 0.01 From Corner Missed Shot Tom Bischof
17' Freiburg Michael Gregoritsch 0.08 Open Play Missed Shot Lucas Höler
22' Hoffenheim Andrej Kramaric 0.08 Open Play Missed Shot Alexander Prass
27' Freiburg Maximilian Eggestein 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Ritsu Doan
31' Hoffenheim Jacob Bruun Larsen 0.32 Open Play Saved Shot Anton Stach
32' Hoffenheim Anton Stach 0.34 From Corner Missed Shot Tom Bischof
43' Hoffenheim Arthur Chaves 0.10 From Corner Missed Shot Andrej Kramaric
43' Hoffenheim Valentin Gendrey 0.01 Set Piece Right Foot Saved Shot
45' Freiburg Maximilian Eggestein 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
48' Hoffenheim Andrej Kramaric 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Tom Bischof
49' Hoffenheim Andrej Kramaric 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Adam Hlozek
50' Freiburg Lucas Höler 0.47 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Patrick Osterhage
50' Freiburg Ritsu Doan 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
52' Hoffenheim Tom Bischof 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Jacob Bruun Larsen
55' Hoffenheim Diadie Samassékou 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
55' Hoffenheim Tom Bischof 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Valentin Gendrey
65' Hoffenheim Jacob Bruun Larsen 0.29 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Oliver Baumann
67' Freiburg Matthias Ginter 0.45 Set Piece Right Foot Goal Vincenzo Grifo
72' Hoffenheim Tom Bischof 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Goal
76' Freiburg Vincenzo Grifo 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Maximilian Eggestein
81' Freiburg Ritsu Doan 0.05 Open Play Missed Shot
83' Freiburg Vincenzo Grifo 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Maximilian Eggestein
83' Hoffenheim Dennis Geiger 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Max Moerstedt
88' Freiburg Eren Sami Dinkci 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Vincenzo Grifo

Players

Freiburg

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Matthias Ginter DC 90 1 0 1 0 0.45 0.00 0.02
Maximilian Eggestein MC 90 0 0 2 3 0.17 0.24 0.49
Ritsu Doan MR 90 0 0 2 1 0.10 0.09 0.28
Noah Atubolu GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nicolas Höfler MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Philipp Lienhart DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Lucas Höler FW 82 0 0 1 1 0.47 0.08 0.64
Christian Günter DL 82 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lukas Kübler DR 71 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Michael Gregoritsch FW 70 0 0 2 0 0.17 0.00 0.17
Patrick Osterhage ML 62 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.47 0.47
Vincenzo Grifo Sub 28 0 1 2 2 0.15 0.48 0.17
Merlin Röhl Sub 20 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Max Rosenfelder Sub 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Eren Sami Dinkci Sub 8 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Jordy Makengo Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02

Hoffenheim

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Anton Stach DMC 90 0 0 2 1 0.38 0.32 0.45
Tom Bischof AMR 90 1 0 3 3 0.12 0.43 0.24
Arthur Chaves DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.10 0.00 0.41
Valentin Gendrey DR 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.01 0.54
Alexander Prass DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.08 0.45
Stanley N'Soki DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.34
Oliver Baumann GK 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.29 0.29
Adam Hlozek FW 83 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.14
Jacob Bruun Larsen AMC 79 0 0 2 1 0.61 0.05 0.87
Andrej Kramaric AML 73 0 0 3 2 0.21 0.14 0.25
Diadie Samassékou DMC 73 0 0 2 0 0.04 0.00 0.32
Dennis Geiger Sub 17 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Max Moerstedt Sub 17 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.03
Mërgim Berisha Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Kevin Akpoguma Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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