Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 13 December 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 14
On target
6 – 5
Shots in box
9 – 8
xG per shot
0.25 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 0.81
Goals − xG
+1.51 – -0.41
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hoffenheim win
57.4%
Draw
23.7%
Hamburger SV win
18.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DWLLLWLLWW last 10
scored 18
from 20.7 xG
conceded 21
from 15.1 xG
Hamburger SV have scored 12 from 11.8 expected and conceded 20 from 18.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWDLLLWWWL last 10
scored 12
from 11.8 xG
conceded 20
from 18.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.85–0.97 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.80–1.30 | 1-1 11% | 60% | 61% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hoffenheim 2.49 xGHamburger SV 1.41 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hoffenheim attacking right
Hamburger SV attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 7' |
Hoffenheim |
Grischa Prömel | 0.27 | Open Play | — | Goal | Wouter Burger |
| 11' |
Hoffenheim |
Albian Hajdari | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 13' |
 Hamburger SV |
Giorgi Gocholeishvili | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Hamburger SV |
Giorgi Gocholeishvili | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Miro Muheim |
| 30' |
Hoffenheim |
Ozan Kabak | 0.63 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Grischa Prömel |
| 34' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nicolás Capaldo |
| 36' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Fabio Baldé |
| 39' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jonas Meffert |
| 41' |
Hamburger SV |
Fabio Baldé | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ransford Königsdörffer |
| 46' |
Hamburger SV |
Albert Sambi Lokonga | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Rayan Philippe |
| 48' |
Hamburger SV |
Miro Muheim | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jonas Meffert |
| 51' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luka Vuskovic |
| 59' |
Hoffenheim |
Tim Lemperle | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Andrej Kramaric |
| 64' |
Hoffenheim |
Tim Lemperle | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bazoumana Touré |
| 69' |
Hamburger SV |
Fabio Baldé | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ransford Königsdörffer |
| 69' |
Hoffenheim |
Grischa Prömel | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 71' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alexander Prass |
| 81' |
Hamburger SV |
Rayan Philippe | 0.21 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Fábio Vieira |
| 87' |
Hamburger SV |
Rayan Philippe | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yussuf Poulsen |
| 90' |
Hamburger SV |
Rayan Philippe | 0.76 | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — | |
| 91' |
Hoffenheim |
Adam Hlozek | 0.43 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ihlas Bebou |
| 93' |
Hoffenheim |
Leon Avdullahu | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 95' |
Hamburger SV |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bakery Jatta |
Players
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ozan Kabak DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 1.45 |
| Albian Hajdari DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 1.03 |
| Leon Avdullahu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| Wouter Burger MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.82 |
| Vladimir Coufal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1.21 |
| Robin Hranác DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.52 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Tim Lemperle FW | 82 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Grischa Prömel MR | 82 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.63 | 1.48 |
| Bazoumana Touré ML | 69 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.45 | 1.16 |
| Andrej Kramaric FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.52 |
| Fisnik Asllani Sub | 21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.95 |
| Alexander Prass Sub | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 1.00 |
| Adam Hlozek Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Ihlas Bebou Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| Valentin Gendrey Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hamburger SV
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Sambi Lokonga MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Luka Vuskovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.13 |
| Miro Muheim DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Fábio Vieira FWR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| Jordan Torunarigha DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Nicolás Capaldo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.30 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ransford Königsdörffer FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.30 |
| Fabio Baldé FWL | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Jonas Meffert MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| Giorgi Gocholeishvili DMR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Rayan Philippe Sub | 42 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.01 | 0.04 | 0.29 |
| Daniel Elfadli Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bakery Jatta Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Yussuf Poulsen Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Aboubaka Soumahoro Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |