Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 October 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (270 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 2-1 9.8%
- 2-0 9.1%
- 1-1 8.8%
- 1-0 8.2%
- 3-1 7.3%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 64.2% | Under 2.5 | 35.8% |
| BTTS yes | 59.0% | BTTS no | 41.0% |
| Hoffenheim 1+ | 89.2% | Hoffenheim 2+ | 65.1% |
| Hamburger SV 1+ | 66.1% | Hamburger SV 2+ | 29.5% |
Expected goals 2.22 – 1.08. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Hoffenheim carry the stronger rating, 1538 Elo against 1445.
- Hoffenheim have created 2.05 xG a match over their last five while Hamburger SV have allowed 2.18.
- At home Hoffenheim average 2.26 xG a match.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Hoffenheim have an estimated 62.8% win probability, against 18.6% for the draw and 18.5% for Hamburger SV. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.22 for Hoffenheim and 1.08 for Hamburger SV.
Why Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim carry the stronger rating, 1538 Elo against 1445. Hoffenheim have created 2.05 xG a match over their last five while Hamburger SV have allowed 2.18. At home Hoffenheim average 2.26 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 18.6%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Hamburger SV can win
Hamburger SV have created 1.10 xG a match over their last five while Hoffenheim have allowed 1.78. Away from home Hamburger SV average 0.96 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Hoffenheim were missing 1.29 expected goal involvements a match against 0.63.
Key players
Hoffenheim's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Tim Lemperle (0.39), Adam Daghim (0.37), Fisnik Asllani (0.36). Hamburger SV's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Fábio Vieira (0.26), Albert Grønbæk (0.24), Ransford Königsdörffer (0.23).
Availability
2 of Hoffenheim's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Hoffenheim's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Hamburger SV's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Hamburger SV's last eleven are new to the club this window.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Hoffenheim: 57% possession, 17.6 shots a match, 14.5 faced, 0.27 xG a match from set pieces. Hamburger SV: 41% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 18.5 faced, 0.24 xG a match from set pieces. Hoffenheim's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-10 14:48 · team_stats 2026-10-10 06:03 · availability 2026-10-10 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Hoffenheim are the model's most likely outcome at 62.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.8%. Confidence 96/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
Hamburger SV have scored 13 from 12.9 expected and conceded 21 from 19.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 2.22–1.08 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg | 2.42–1.07 | 2-1 10% | 68% | 60% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.40–1.06 | 2-1 10% | 67% | 59% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim to win | 64.1% | 58.1% | 41.8% | 1.39× | 1.72 |
| Draw | 19.1% | 19.4% | 24.8% | 0.79× | 5.14 |
| Hamburger SV to win | 16.7% | 19.4% | 33.5% | 0.58× | 5.15 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim & both teams score | 33.4% | 29.6% | 22.2% | 1.34× | 3.38 |
| Hoffenheim & not both score | 30.7% | 29.6% | 19.8% | 1.49× | 3.38 |
| Draw & both teams score | 15.5% | 18.0% | 19.1% | 0.94× | 5.57 |
| Hamburger SV & both teams score | 9.9% | 8.3% | 18.5% | 0.45× | 11.99 |
| Hamburger SV & not both score | 6.9% | 8.3% | 15.2% | 0.55× | 12.01 |
| Draw & not both score | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 0.84× | 20.46 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim & over 1.5 | 56.0% | 54.7% | 35.8% | 1.53× | 1.83 |
| Hoffenheim & over 2.5 | 46.8% | 45.0% | 29.8% | 1.51× | 2.22 |
| Hoffenheim & under 3.5 | 34.0% | 30.8% | 21.5% | 1.43× | 3.25 |
| Hoffenheim & over 3.5 | 30.2% | 30.8% | 20.5% | 1.50× | 3.25 |
| Hoffenheim & under 2.5 | 17.3% | 18.0% | 12.2% | 1.48× | 5.56 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 15.5% | 18.0% | 19.1% | 0.94× | 5.56 |
| Hamburger SV & over 1.5 | 12.9% | 12.9% | 27.7% | 0.46× | 7.78 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 12.3% | 12.9% | 15.4% | 0.84× | 7.78 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 12.3% | 12.9% | 15.4% | 0.84× | 7.78 |
| Hamburger SV & over 2.5 | 10.8% | 12.9% | 23.5% | 0.55× | 7.78 |
| Hamburger SV & under 3.5 | 11.3% | 12.9% | 19.5% | 0.66× | 7.78 |
| Hoffenheim & under 1.5 | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 1.29× | 12.63 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 0.83× | 12.63 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 0.83× | 12.63 |
| Hamburger SV & under 2.5 | 5.9% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 0.78× | 12.63 |
| Hamburger SV & over 3.5 | 5.5% | 7.9% | 14.2% | 0.56× | 12.63 |
| Hamburger SV & under 1.5 | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 0.80× | 20.84 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 0.82× | 20.84 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim (1UP) | 76.7% | 78.8% | 59.9% | 1.32× | 1.27 |
| Hamburger SV (1UP) | 36.4% | 33.7% | 52.5% | 0.64× | 2.97 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim (2UP) | 64.1% | 68.2% | 45.1% | 1.51× | 1.47 |
| Hamburger SV (2UP) | 16.7% | 17.4% | 36.5% | 0.48× | 5.74 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim to win 2nd half | 39.4% | 36.1% | 37.1% | 0.97× | 2.77 |
| 2nd half drawn | 36.3% | 36.0% | 33.7% | 1.07× | 2.77 |
| Hamburger SV to win 2nd half | 24.3% | 23.9% | 29.3% | 0.82× | 4.18 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV under 1.5 in 2nd half | 87.1% | 87.5% | 79.7% | 1.10× | 1.14 |
| Hamburger SV under 0.5 in 2nd half | 53.7% | 52.8% | 43.1% | 1.22× | 1.90 |
| Hamburger SV over 0.5 in 2nd half | 46.3% | 47.2% | 56.9% | 0.83× | 2.12 |
| Hamburger SV over 1.5 in 2nd half | 12.9% | 12.5% | 20.3% | 0.62× | 7.99 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim under 1.5 in 2nd half | 78.0% | 75.6% | 74.4% | 1.02× | 1.32 |
| Hoffenheim over 0.5 in 2nd half | 58.5% | 57.9% | 62.6% | 0.93× | 1.73 |
| Hoffenheim under 0.5 in 2nd half | 41.5% | 42.1% | 37.4% | 1.12× | 2.37 |
| Hoffenheim over 1.5 in 2nd half | 22.0% | 24.4% | 25.6% | 0.95× | 4.10 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim (+0.5) | 83.3% | 82.5% | 66.5% | 1.24× | 1.21 |
| Hamburger SV (+2.5) | 77.8% | 78.5% | 88.0% | 0.89× | 1.27 |
| Hoffenheim (-0.5) | 64.1% | 62.9% | 41.8% | 1.50× | 1.59 |
| Hamburger SV (+1.5) | 58.6% | 57.0% | 75.1% | 0.76× | 1.75 |
| Hoffenheim (-1.5) | 41.4% | 43.0% | 24.9% | 1.72× | 2.33 |
| Hamburger SV (+0.5) | 35.9% | 37.1% | 58.2% | 0.64× | 2.70 |
| Hoffenheim (-2.5) | 22.2% | 21.5% | 12.0% | 1.79× | 4.65 |
| Hamburger SV (-0.5) | 16.7% | 17.5% | 33.5% | 0.52× | 5.72 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV to concede | 89.5% | 86.4% | 79.1% | 1.09× | 1.16 |
| Hamburger SV clean sheet | 10.5% | 13.6% | 20.9% | 0.65× | 7.33 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV to concede in 1st half | 74.8% | 77.6% | 52.1% | 1.49× | 1.29 |
| Hamburger SV clean sheet in 1st half | 25.2% | 22.4% | 47.9% | 0.47× | 4.47 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV to concede in 2nd half | 58.5% | 57.6% | 62.6% | 0.92× | 1.74 |
| Hamburger SV clean sheet in 2nd half | 41.5% | 42.4% | 37.4% | 1.13× | 2.36 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV under 3.5 goals | 97.6% | 97.5% | 92.6% | 1.05× | 1.03 |
| Hamburger SV under 2.5 goals | 90.7% | 92.3% | 79.1% | 1.17× | 1.08 |
| Hamburger SV under 1.5 goals | 71.0% | 71.9% | 57.2% | 1.26× | 1.39 |
| Hamburger SV over 0.5 goals | 65.7% | 67.9% | 74.5% | 0.91× | 1.47 |
| Hamburger SV under 0.5 goals | 34.3% | 32.1% | 25.5% | 1.26× | 3.12 |
| Hamburger SV over 1.5 goals | 29.0% | 28.1% | 42.8% | 0.66× | 3.56 |
| Hamburger SV over 2.5 goals | 9.3% | 7.7% | 20.9% | 0.37× | 13.00 |
| Hamburger SV over 3.5 goals | 2.4% | 2.5% | 7.4% | 0.34× | 39.94 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV under 1.5 in 1st half | 92.5% | 94.0% | 85.7% | 1.10× | 1.06 |
| Hamburger SV under 0.5 in 1st half | 63.9% | 64.2% | 54.5% | 1.18× | 1.56 |
| Hamburger SV over 0.5 in 1st half | 36.1% | 35.8% | 45.5% | 0.79× | 2.79 |
| Hamburger SV over 1.5 in 1st half | 7.5% | 6.0% | 14.3% | 0.42× | 16.73 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV scores equally in both | 44.6% | 44.2% | 39.4% | 1.12× | 2.26 |
| Hamburger SV scores more in 2nd half | 33.4% | 33.5% | 36.7% | 0.91× | 2.98 |
| Hamburger SV scores more in 1st half | 22.0% | 21.9% | 24.0% | 0.91× | 4.56 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim (away no bet) | 77.0% | 73.5% | 62.8% | 1.17× | 1.36 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 23.0% | 26.5% | 37.2% | 0.71× | 3.77 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV even goals | 55.9% | 56.9% | 53.4% | 1.07× | 1.76 |
| Hamburger SV odd goals | 44.1% | 43.1% | 46.6% | 0.92× | 2.32 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 75.9% | 81.6% | 75.3% | 1.08× | 1.23 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 24.1% | 18.5% | 24.7% | 0.75× | 5.42 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 74.6% | 67.6% | 72.4% | 0.93× | 1.48 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 25.4% | 32.4% | 27.6% | 1.18× | 3.08 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 68.5% | 62.2% | 66.9% | 0.93× | 1.61 |
| Hoffenheim to score 2+ in a row | 57.6% | 55.2% | 42.5% | 1.30× | 1.81 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 32.2% | 29.2% | 29.6% | 0.99× | 3.42 |
| Hoffenheim to score 3+ in a row | 28.6% | 25.2% | 17.9% | 1.41× | 3.97 |
| Hamburger SV to score 2+ in a row | 18.9% | 16.3% | 34.4% | 0.48× | 6.13 |
| Hamburger SV to score 3+ in a row | 4.1% | 2.7% | 12.6% | 0.21× | 37.61 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 8.7% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 0.76× | 13.50 |
| 2-0 | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 1.20× | 13.50 |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 1.07× | 13.50 |
| 1-0 | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 1.20× | 13.50 |
| 3-0 | 6.9% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 2.67× | 13.50 |
| 3-1 | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 1.20× | 13.50 |
| Any other score | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 1.30× | 13.50 |
| 2-2 | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 1.15× | 13.50 |
| 0-0 | 3.6% | 1.7% | 5.8% | 0.29× | 58.33 |
| 0-1 | 3.8% | 1.7% | 6.0% | 0.29× | 58.33 |
| 0-2 | 2.1% | 1.7% | 4.3% | 0.40× | 58.34 |
| 0-3 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 0.59× | 58.35 |
| 0-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.11× | 58.35 |
| 1-2 | 4.6% | 1.7% | 6.8% | 0.25× | 58.33 |
| 1-3 | 1.7% | 1.7% | 4.8% | 0.36× | 58.34 |
| 1-4 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.01× | 58.35 |
| 2-3 | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 0.66× | 58.34 |
| 2-4 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.59× | 58.35 |
| 3-2 | 3.9% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 0.48× | 58.33 |
| 3-3 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 0.59× | 58.35 |
| 3-4 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.11× | 58.35 |
| 4-0 | 3.9% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 0.48× | 58.33 |
| 4-1 | 4.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 0.80× | 58.33 |
| 4-2 | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.59× | 58.34 |
| 4-3 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.86× | 58.35 |
| 4-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.71× | 58.35 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim (2nd half DNB) | 61.8% | 61.0% | 55.9% | 1.09× | 1.64 |
| Hamburger SV (2nd half DNB) | 38.2% | 39.0% | 44.1% | 0.89× | 2.56 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim leading at HT (DNB) | 83.4% | 86.4% | 55.8% | 1.55× | 1.16 |
| Hamburger SV leading at HT (DNB) | 16.6% | 13.6% | 44.2% | 0.31× | 7.37 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim or draw (1X) | 83.3% | 80.6% | 66.5% | 1.21× | 1.24 |
| Hoffenheim or Hamburger SV (12) | 80.9% | 80.6% | 75.2% | 1.07× | 1.24 |
| Hamburger SV or draw (X2) | 35.9% | 41.9% | 58.2% | 0.72× | 2.39 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim or draw at HT | 88.0% | 88.0% | 70.6% | 1.25× | 1.14 |
| Hoffenheim or Hamburger SV at HT | 72.3% | 74.7% | 66.4% | 1.13× | 1.34 |
| Hamburger SV or draw at HT | 39.7% | 30.1% | 62.9% | 0.48× | 3.32 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim or draw (1UP) | 83.3% | 88.6% | 73.7% | 1.20× | 1.13 |
| Hamburger SV or draw (1UP) | 36.4% | 41.2% | 64.9% | 0.63× | 2.43 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim or draw in 2nd half | 75.7% | 76.1% | 70.7% | 1.08× | 1.31 |
| Hoffenheim or Hamburger SV in 2nd half | 63.7% | 64.0% | 66.3% | 0.97× | 1.56 |
| Hamburger SV or draw in 2nd half | 60.6% | 63.9% | 62.9% | 1.02× | 1.57 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 53.9% | 50.3% | 53.6% | 0.94× | 1.99 |
| Neither half drawn | 46.1% | 49.7% | 46.4% | 1.07× | 2.01 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim (DNB) | 79.3% | 74.7% | 55.5% | 1.35× | 1.34 |
| Hamburger SV (DNB) | 20.7% | 25.3% | 44.5% | 0.57× | 3.95 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim to score first | 65.4% | 69.4% | 51.0% | 1.36× | 1.44 |
| Hamburger SV to score first | 31.0% | 26.9% | 43.3% | 0.62× | 3.71 |
| No goal scored | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 0.75× | 22.88 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | 55.0% | 59.4% | 0.93× | 1.82 |
| Not both teams to score | 41.2% | 45.0% | 40.6% | 1.11× | 2.22 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 50.1% | 47.2% | 49.8% | 0.95× | 2.12 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 26.8% | 33.4% | 27.8% | 1.20× | 3.00 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 14.4% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 0.96× | 8.09 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 0.86× | 12.04 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 80.9% | 82.6% | 79.7% | 1.04× | 1.21 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 19.1% | 17.4% | 20.3% | 0.86× | 5.75 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 72.9% | 73.9% | 65.2% | 1.13× | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 27.1% | 26.1% | 34.8% | 0.75× | 3.83 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 53.2% | 55.1% | 51.5% | 1.07× | 1.81 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 19.7% | 15.5% | 28.2% | 0.55× | 6.45 |
| Both score 1st half only | 19.7% | 15.5% | 13.9% | 1.12× | 6.45 |
| Both score in both halves | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 1.02× | 14.50 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 73.0% | 80.2% | 79.5% | 1.01× | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 27.0% | 19.8% | 20.5% | 0.97× | 5.04 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 65.2% | 66.1% | 67.5% | 0.98× | 1.51 |
| A half without a goal | 34.8% | 33.9% | 32.5% | 1.04× | 2.95 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 41.9% | 42.1% | 38.6% | 1.09× | 2.38 |
| 4-6 goals | 37.3% | 35.1% | 40.0% | 0.88× | 2.85 |
| 0-1 goals | 15.6% | 20.2% | 17.7% | 1.14× | 4.95 |
| 7+ goals | 5.2% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 1.90× | 13.18 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV to score exactly 1 | 36.7% | 35.9% | 31.8% | 1.13× | 2.78 |
| Hamburger SV to score exactly 0 | 34.3% | 33.8% | 25.5% | 1.33× | 2.96 |
| Hamburger SV to score exactly 2 | 19.6% | 19.6% | 22.0% | 0.89× | 5.11 |
| Hamburger SV to score 3+ | 9.3% | 8.6% | 20.9% | 0.41× | 11.67 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim to score 3+ | 39.2% | 35.6% | 27.7% | 1.28× | 2.81 |
| Hoffenheim to score exactly 2 | 26.7% | 26.5% | 22.8% | 1.17× | 3.77 |
| Hoffenheim to score exactly 1 | 23.6% | 23.3% | 28.9% | 0.81× | 4.29 |
| Hoffenheim to score exactly 0 | 10.5% | 14.3% | 20.9% | 0.68× | 6.98 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim leading at HT | 60.3% | 69.9% | 37.1% | 1.88× | 1.43 |
| Draw at HT | 27.7% | 25.3% | 33.6% | 0.75× | 3.96 |
| Hamburger SV leading at HT | 12.0% | 12.0% | 29.4% | 0.41× | 8.31 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim -1: 1 | 41.4% | 42.8% | — | — | 2.34 |
| Hoffenheim -1: 2 | 35.9% | 37.4% | — | — | 2.67 |
| Hoffenheim -1: X | 22.7% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.25 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim (0:1) | 41.4% | 42.7% | 24.9% | 1.71× | 2.34 |
| Hamburger SV (0:1) | 35.9% | 37.3% | 58.2% | 0.64× | 2.68 |
| Draw (0:1) | 22.7% | 24.2% | 17.1% | 1.42× | 4.13 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV (0:2) | 58.6% | 63.0% | 75.1% | 0.84× | 1.59 |
| Hoffenheim (0:2) | 22.2% | 20.3% | 12.0% | 1.69× | 4.93 |
| Draw (0:2) | 19.1% | 15.3% | 13.1% | 1.17× | 6.55 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV (0:3) | 77.8% | 80.6% | 88.0% | 0.92× | 1.24 |
| Draw (0:3) | 12.2% | 10.0% | 5.1% | 1.97× | 10.02 |
| Hoffenheim (0:3) | 10.0% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 1.41× | 10.05 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV (0:4) | 90.0% | 92.0% | 92.9% | 0.99× | 1.09 |
| Draw (0:4) | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 0.91× | 21.64 |
| Hoffenheim (0:4) | 3.9% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 0.56× | 82.41 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim (1:0) | 83.3% | 81.3% | 66.5% | 1.22× | 1.23 |
| Draw (1:0) | 10.8% | 12.7% | 16.5% | 0.77× | 7.85 |
| Hamburger SV (1:0) | 6.0% | 6.9% | 17.2% | 0.40× | 14.51 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim (2:0) | 94.0% | 94.0% | 82.8% | 1.14× | 1.06 |
| Draw (2:0) | 4.3% | 2.3% | 10.0% | 0.23× | 43.43 |
| Hamburger SV (2:0) | 1.7% | 2.3% | 7.4% | 0.31× | 43.59 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st half highest scoring | 45.5% | 48.2% | 25.7% | 1.87× | 2.08 |
| 2nd half highest scoring | 31.9% | 29.9% | 47.3% | 0.63× | 3.34 |
| Halves equal | 22.6% | 24.3% | 27.1% | 0.90× | 4.11 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim to concede | 65.7% | 66.6% | 74.5% | 0.89× | 1.50 |
| Hoffenheim clean sheet | 34.3% | 33.4% | 25.5% | 1.31× | 2.99 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim clean sheet in 1st half | 63.9% | 64.2% | 54.5% | 1.18× | 1.56 |
| Hoffenheim to concede in 1st half | 36.1% | 35.8% | 45.5% | 0.79× | 2.80 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim clean sheet in 2nd half | 53.7% | 52.7% | 43.1% | 1.22× | 1.90 |
| Hoffenheim to concede in 2nd half | 46.3% | 47.3% | 56.9% | 0.83× | 2.11 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim over 0.5 goals | 89.5% | 87.3% | 79.1% | 1.10× | 1.15 |
| Hoffenheim under 3.5 goals | 80.8% | 82.2% | 88.5% | 0.93× | 1.22 |
| Hoffenheim over 1.5 goals | 65.9% | 67.9% | 50.3% | 1.35× | 1.47 |
| Hoffenheim under 2.5 goals | 60.8% | 63.6% | 72.3% | 0.88× | 1.57 |
| Hoffenheim over 2.5 goals | 39.2% | 36.4% | 27.7% | 1.32× | 2.75 |
| Hoffenheim under 1.5 goals | 34.1% | 32.1% | 49.7% | 0.65× | 3.12 |
| Hoffenheim over 3.5 goals | 19.2% | 17.8% | 11.5% | 1.55× | 5.61 |
| Hoffenheim under 0.5 goals | 10.5% | 12.7% | 20.9% | 0.61× | 7.86 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim over 0.5 in 1st half | 74.8% | 79.3% | 52.1% | 1.52× | 1.26 |
| Hoffenheim under 1.5 in 1st half | 60.0% | 57.7% | 80.6% | 0.72× | 1.73 |
| Hoffenheim over 1.5 in 1st half | 40.0% | 42.3% | 19.4% | 2.18× | 2.36 |
| Hoffenheim under 0.5 in 1st half | 25.2% | 20.7% | 47.9% | 0.43× | 4.84 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim scores more in 1st half | 48.5% | 47.7% | 25.4% | 1.87× | 2.10 |
| Hoffenheim scores equally in both | 27.6% | 27.9% | 36.5% | 0.77× | 3.58 |
| Hoffenheim scores more in 2nd half | 24.0% | 21.3% | 38.2% | 0.56× | 4.70 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (home no bet) | 53.3% | 51.5% | 42.5% | 1.21× | 1.94 |
| Hamburger SV (home no bet) | 46.7% | 48.5% | 57.5% | 0.84× | 2.06 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim even goals | 50.6% | 50.7% | 52.2% | 0.97× | 1.97 |
| Hoffenheim odd goals | 49.4% | 49.3% | 47.8% | 1.03× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 1-0 | 22.2% | 24.2% | 19.6% | 1.24× | 4.13 |
| Any other HT score | 17.0% | 18.9% | 6.6% | 2.85× | 5.29 |
| HT 0-0 | 16.1% | 18.9% | 23.0% | 0.82× | 5.30 |
| HT 2-0 | 15.3% | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.94× | 5.30 |
| HT 1-1 | 9.9% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 0.73× | 14.31 |
| HT 0-1 | 7.2% | 7.0% | 16.5% | 0.42× | 14.36 |
| HT 2-1 | 6.9% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 1.61× | 14.36 |
| HT 1-2 | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 0.67× | 42.38 |
| HT 0-2 | 1.6% | 2.4% | 7.2% | 0.33× | 42.42 |
| HT 2-2 | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.91× | 42.43 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim at HT / Hoffenheim at FT | 51.8% | 53.7% | 28.5% | 1.88× | 1.86 |
| Draw at HT / Hoffenheim at FT | 10.9% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 1.22× | 7.92 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 10.0% | 12.6% | 13.7% | 0.92× | 7.93 |
| Hamburger SV at HT / Hamburger SV at FT | 7.9% | 6.1% | 20.3% | 0.30× | 16.42 |
| Draw at HT / Hamburger SV at FT | 6.7% | 6.1% | 9.9% | 0.62× | 16.45 |
| Hoffenheim at HT / Draw at FT | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 1.16× | 16.46 |
| Hamburger SV at HT / Draw at FT | 2.7% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 0.58× | 28.90 |
| Hoffenheim at HT / Hamburger SV at FT | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 0.94× | 28.92 |
| Hamburger SV at HT / Hoffenheim at FT | 1.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.02× | 28.95 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim to score last | 65.4% | 70.0% | 49.9% | 1.40× | 1.43 |
| Hamburger SV to score last | 31.0% | 32.7% | 44.4% | 0.74× | 3.06 |
| No goal scored | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 0.75× | 22.88 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 96.4% | 95.6% | 94.1% | 1.02× | 1.05 |
| Hoffenheim to lead by 1 at any time | 76.7% | 78.2% | 59.9% | 1.30× | 1.28 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 59.4% | 55.2% | 56.1% | 0.98× | 1.81 |
| Hoffenheim to lead by 2 at any time | 48.9% | 44.4% | 33.3% | 1.33× | 2.25 |
| Hamburger SV to lead by 1 at any time | 36.4% | 34.4% | 52.5% | 0.66× | 2.91 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 28.6% | 25.4% | 25.7% | 0.99× | 3.94 |
| Hoffenheim to lead by 3 at any time | 25.9% | 25.3% | 15.7% | 1.61× | 3.95 |
| Hamburger SV to lead by 2 at any time | 11.0% | 10.4% | 23.6% | 0.44× | 9.60 |
| Hamburger SV to lead by 3 at any time | 2.8% | 1.6% | 10.2% | 0.16× | 60.88 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 84.4% | 83.4% | 83.2% | 1.00× | 1.20 |
| 2-6 goals | 79.2% | 78.7% | 78.5% | 1.00× | 1.27 |
| 2-5 goals | 72.5% | 72.4% | 71.4% | 1.01× | 1.38 |
| 1-4 goals | 72.2% | 72.4% | 72.2% | 1.00× | 1.38 |
| 2-4 goals | 60.3% | 63.4% | 60.3% | 1.05× | 1.58 |
| 3-6 goals | 59.3% | 59.1% | 58.8% | 1.01× | 1.69 |
| 1-3 goals | 53.9% | 53.2% | 50.5% | 1.05× | 1.88 |
| 3-5 goals | 52.6% | 53.2% | 51.7% | 1.03× | 1.88 |
| 2-3 goals | 41.9% | 43.6% | 38.6% | 1.13× | 2.29 |
| 3-4 goals | 40.4% | 43.6% | 40.6% | 1.07× | 2.29 |
| 4-6 goals | 37.3% | 39.2% | 40.0% | 0.98× | 2.55 |
| 1-2 goals | 31.8% | 35.2% | 31.7% | 1.11× | 2.84 |
| 4-5 goals | 30.5% | 35.2% | 32.9% | 1.07× | 2.84 |
| 5-6 goals | 19.0% | 18.8% | 18.3% | 1.03× | 5.32 |
| 7+ goals | 5.2% | 8.9% | 4.0% | 2.22× | 11.28 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim never behind | 60.0% | 68.0% | 47.5% | 1.43× | 1.47 |
| Hamburger SV never behind | 19.7% | 18.5% | 40.1% | 0.46× | 5.40 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 49.9% | 50.9% | 45.1% | 1.13× | 1.96 |
| Even number of goals | 50.1% | 49.1% | 54.9% | 0.89× | 2.04 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 51.3% | 51.6% | 52.2% | 0.99× | 1.94 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 48.7% | 48.4% | 47.8% | 1.01× | 2.07 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 52.5% | 51.9% | 53.2% | 0.98× | 1.93 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 47.5% | 48.1% | 46.8% | 1.03× | 2.08 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 96.4% | 95.4% | 94.2% | 1.01× | 1.05 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 88.0% | 87.6% | 88.9% | 0.99× | 1.14 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.4% | 82.3% | 82.3% | 1.00× | 1.22 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 75.8% | 77.3% | 77.8% | 0.99× | 1.29 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.6% | 61.7% | 62.6% | 0.99× | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 57.5% | 58.6% | 56.2% | 1.04× | 1.71 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.5% | 41.4% | 43.8% | 0.94× | 2.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.4% | 38.3% | 37.4% | 1.02× | 2.61 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 24.2% | 22.7% | 22.2% | 1.02× | 4.41 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.6% | 17.7% | 17.7% | 1.00× | 5.66 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 12.0% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 1.12× | 8.07 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 0.78× | 21.83 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 94.4% | 92.4% | 95.7% | 0.97× | 1.08 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 86.4% | 86.7% | 87.5% | 0.99× | 1.15 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 80.6% | 81.1% | 78.0% | 1.04× | 1.23 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 70.4% | 72.4% | 71.7% | 1.01× | 1.38 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 54.5% | 51.9% | 54.0% | 0.96× | 1.93 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 45.5% | 48.1% | 46.0% | 1.05× | 2.08 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 29.6% | 27.6% | 28.3% | 0.98× | 3.63 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 19.4% | 18.9% | 22.0% | 0.86× | 5.28 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 13.6% | 13.3% | 12.5% | 1.07× | 7.53 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 5.6% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 1.76× | 13.19 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 83.9% | 86.0% | 77.0% | 1.12× | 1.16 |
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 72.4% | 71.5% | 84.7% | 0.84× | 1.40 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 54.5% | 54.9% | 41.3% | 1.33× | 1.82 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 45.5% | 45.1% | 58.7% | 0.77× | 2.22 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 27.6% | 28.5% | 15.3% | 1.87× | 3.51 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 16.1% | 14.0% | 23.0% | 0.61× | 7.16 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 80.9% | 82.9% | 73.2% | 1.13× | 1.21 |
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 77.7% | 79.8% | 84.6% | 0.94× | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 55.8% | 55.1% | 44.2% | 1.24× | 1.82 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 44.2% | 44.9% | 55.8% | 0.81× | 2.23 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 22.3% | 20.2% | 15.4% | 1.31× | 4.94 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 19.1% | 17.1% | 26.8% | 0.64× | 5.85 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV not to score in both halves | 83.3% | 84.1% | 72.1% | 1.17× | 1.19 |
| Hoffenheim not to score in both halves | 56.3% | 57.7% | 64.4% | 0.90× | 1.73 |
| Hoffenheim to score in both halves | 43.7% | 42.3% | 35.6% | 1.19× | 2.36 |
| Hamburger SV to score in both halves | 16.7% | 15.9% | 27.9% | 0.57× | 6.30 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 58.8% | 58.7% | 59.4% | 0.99× | 1.70 |
| Only Hoffenheim scores | 30.7% | 33.3% | 19.8% | 1.68× | 3.00 |
| Only Hamburger SV scores | 6.9% | 7.1% | 15.2% | 0.47× | 14.04 |
| Neither team scores | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 0.79× | 21.54 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3 goals | 22.1% | 22.6% | 18.9% | 1.19× | 4.42 |
| Exactly 2 goals | 19.9% | 17.4% | 19.8% | 0.88× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 18.3% | 17.4% | 21.8% | 0.80× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 12.0% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 1.01× | 8.26 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 12.2% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 1.08× | 8.26 |
| 6 or more goals | 12.0% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 1.09× | 8.26 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 0.77× | 22.36 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 1st half | 29.4% | 28.4% | 35.9% | 0.79× | 3.53 |
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 27.6% | 28.3% | 15.3% | 1.86× | 3.53 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 26.9% | 28.3% | 26.2% | 1.08× | 3.54 |
| No goals in 1st half | 16.1% | 15.3% | 23.0% | 0.67× | 6.52 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 44.2% | 44.0% | 55.8% | 0.79× | 2.27 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 33.5% | 33.7% | 29.0% | 1.16× | 2.97 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 22.3% | 22.4% | 15.4% | 1.46× | 4.46 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV not to win both halves | 97.1% | 97.1% | 90.8% | 1.07× | 1.03 |
| Hoffenheim not to win both halves | 76.2% | 75.1% | 83.8% | 0.90× | 1.33 |
| Hoffenheim to win both halves | 23.8% | 24.9% | 16.2% | 1.54× | 4.01 |
| Hamburger SV to win both halves | 2.9% | 2.9% | 9.2% | 0.31× | 34.92 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim to win either half | 76.0% | 79.7% | 58.1% | 1.37× | 1.25 |
| Hamburger SV to win neither half | 66.6% | 67.9% | 50.5% | 1.34× | 1.47 |
| Hamburger SV to win either half | 33.4% | 32.1% | 49.5% | 0.65× | 3.11 |
| Hoffenheim to win neither half | 24.0% | 20.3% | 41.9% | 0.48× | 4.93 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV not to win to nil | 93.1% | 92.1% | 84.8% | 1.09× | 1.09 |
| Hoffenheim not to win to nil | 69.3% | 69.7% | 80.2% | 0.87× | 1.44 |
| Hoffenheim to win to nil | 30.7% | 30.3% | 19.8% | 1.53× | 3.30 |
| Hamburger SV to win to nil | 6.9% | 7.9% | 15.2% | 0.52× | 12.66 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim by 1 | 22.7% | 24.1% | 17.1% | 1.41× | 4.15 |
| Hoffenheim by 3+ | 22.2% | 24.1% | 12.0% | 2.01× | 4.15 |
| Hoffenheim by 2 | 19.1% | 17.0% | 13.1% | 1.30× | 5.87 |
| Draw | 19.1% | 17.0% | 24.8% | 0.69× | 5.87 |
| Hamburger SV by 1 | 10.8% | 11.7% | 16.5% | 0.71× | 8.51 |
| Hamburger SV by 2 | 4.3% | 2.7% | 10.0% | 0.27× | 36.65 |
| Hamburger SV by 3+ | 1.7% | 2.7% | 7.4% | 0.37× | 36.73 |
Reading the xG timeline
Expected goals by minute
Reading the shot map
Shot map
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
|
Fisnik Asllani | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ozan Kabak |
| 1' |
|
Fábio Vieira | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 1' |
|
Nicolai Remberg | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Fábio Vieira |
| 3' |
|
Tim Lemperle | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Daghim |
| 7' |
|
Fábio Vieira | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 11' |
|
Nicolás Capaldo | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yussuf Poulsen |
| 11' |
|
Yussuf Poulsen | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Albert Sambi Lokonga |
| 11' |
|
Yussuf Poulsen | 0.63 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 19' |
|
David Møller Wolfe | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Albert Sambi Lokonga |
| 24' |
|
Tim Lemperle | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
|
Koki Machida | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leon Avdullahu |
| 40' |
|
Bambasé Conté | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 41' |
|
Vladimir Coufal | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
|
Tim Lemperle | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
|
Fisnik Asllani | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
|
Ozan Kabak | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
|
Wouter Burger | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 47' |
|
Wouter Burger | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fisnik Asllani |
| 49' |
|
Fábio Vieira | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Miro Muheim |
| 49' |
|
Fisnik Asllani | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bambasé Conté |
| 50' |
|
Sebastiaan Bornauw | 0.00 | From Corner | — | Own Goal | — |
| 50' |
|
Tim Lemperle | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 52' |
|
Bambasé Conté | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Fisnik Asllani |
| 57' |
|
Ozan Kabak | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 58' |
|
Tim Lemperle | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Daghim |
| 66' |
|
Fábio Vieira | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Albert Sambi Lokonga |
| 71' |
|
Andrej Kramaric | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leon Avdullahu |
| 78' |
|
Terem Igobor Moffi | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 82' |
|
Terem Igobor Moffi | 0.29 | Open Play | — | Goal | Miro Muheim |
| 87' |
|
Fábio Vieira | 0.18 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolás Capaldo |
| 88' |
|
Nicolás Capaldo | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Miro Muheim |
| 89' |
|
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
|
Miro Muheim | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bambasé Conté AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 0.26 |
| Wouter Burger DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Ozan Kabak DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.48 |
| Vladimir Coufal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Leon Avdullahu DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| Koki Machida DC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Adam Daghim AML | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.50 |
| Bernardo DL | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Tim Lemperle FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Fisnik Asllani AMC | 70 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 0.53 |
| Andrej Kramaric Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Adam Hlozek Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Robin Hranác Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexander Prass Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Valentin Gendrey Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hamburger SV
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fábio Vieira AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.06 | 0.57 |
| Nicolás Capaldo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| David Møller Wolfe DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Warmed Omari DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Sebastiaan Bornauw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| Louis Lemke DML | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martin Adeline MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yussuf Poulsen FW | 66 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.67 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Miro Muheim Sub | 50 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| Nicolai Remberg MC | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Otto Stange Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Terem Igobor Moffi Sub | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Kofi Amoako Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |