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Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 10 October 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated

2–3
0.93 – 1.51 xG
Shots
17 – 16
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
9 – 10
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.17 – 0.89
Goals − xG
+1.07 – +1.44

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Hoffenheim win
62.8%
model 63.2%
Draw
18.6%
model 19.5%
Hamburger SV win
18.5%
model 17.4%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (270 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-1 9.8%
  2. 2-0 9.1%
  3. 1-1 8.8%
  4. 1-0 8.2%
  5. 3-1 7.3%

Goals

Over 2.564.2% Under 2.535.8%
BTTS yes59.0% BTTS no41.0%
Hoffenheim 1+89.2% Hoffenheim 2+65.1%
Hamburger SV 1+66.1% Hamburger SV 2+29.5%

Expected goals 2.22 – 1.08. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
96/100
Data quality
100/100
Model agreement
96%
★ Best pick
Hoffenheim (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 42%
63.7% fair odds 1.57
strong signal · 1134 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Hoffenheim leading at HT (DNB)
DNB half time · usually 56%
83.9% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 69 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Hoffenheim carry the stronger rating, 1538 Elo against 1445.
  • Hoffenheim have created 2.05 xG a match over their last five while Hamburger SV have allowed 2.18.
  • At home Hoffenheim average 2.26 xG a match.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Hoffenheim have an estimated 62.8% win probability, against 18.6% for the draw and 18.5% for Hamburger SV. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.22 for Hoffenheim and 1.08 for Hamburger SV.

Why Hoffenheim

Hoffenheim carry the stronger rating, 1538 Elo against 1445. Hoffenheim have created 2.05 xG a match over their last five while Hamburger SV have allowed 2.18. At home Hoffenheim average 2.26 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 18.6%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Hamburger SV can win

Hamburger SV have created 1.10 xG a match over their last five while Hoffenheim have allowed 1.78. Away from home Hamburger SV average 0.96 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Hoffenheim were missing 1.29 expected goal involvements a match against 0.63.

Key players

Hoffenheim's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Tim Lemperle (0.39), Adam Daghim (0.37), Fisnik Asllani (0.36). Hamburger SV's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Fábio Vieira (0.26), Albert Grønbæk (0.24), Ransford Königsdörffer (0.23).

Availability

2 of Hoffenheim's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Hoffenheim's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Hamburger SV's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Hamburger SV's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Hoffenheim: 57% possession, 17.6 shots a match, 14.5 faced, 0.27 xG a match from set pieces. Hamburger SV: 41% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 18.5 faced, 0.24 xG a match from set pieces. Hoffenheim's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-10 14:48 · team_stats 2026-10-10 06:03 · availability 2026-10-10 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Hoffenheim are the model's most likely outcome at 62.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.8%. Confidence 96/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

WDWLLLWLLW last 10 scored 17 from 20.0 xG conceded 22 from 16.2 xG

Hamburger SV have scored 13 from 12.9 expected and conceded 21 from 19.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LWWDLLLWWW last 10 scored 13 from 12.9 xG conceded 21 from 19.9 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
ai-blend 2.22–1.08 0% 0% 0% Home ✗
dc-xg 2.42–1.07 2-1 10% 68% 60% Home ✗
dc-xg-oos 2.40–1.06 2-1 10% 67% 59% Home ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim to win 64.1% 58.1% 41.8% 1.39× 1.72
Draw 19.1% 19.4% 24.8% 0.79× 5.14
Hamburger SV to win 16.7% 19.4% 33.5% 0.58× 5.15
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim & both teams score 33.4% 29.6% 22.2% 1.34× 3.38
Hoffenheim & not both score 30.7% 29.6% 19.8% 1.49× 3.38
Draw & both teams score 15.5% 18.0% 19.1% 0.94× 5.57
Hamburger SV & both teams score 9.9% 8.3% 18.5% 0.45× 11.99
Hamburger SV & not both score 6.9% 8.3% 15.2% 0.55× 12.01
Draw & not both score 3.6% 4.9% 5.8% 0.84× 20.46
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim & over 1.5 56.0% 54.7% 35.8% 1.53× 1.83
Hoffenheim & over 2.5 46.8% 45.0% 29.8% 1.51× 2.22
Hoffenheim & under 3.5 34.0% 30.8% 21.5% 1.43× 3.25
Hoffenheim & over 3.5 30.2% 30.8% 20.5% 1.50× 3.25
Hoffenheim & under 2.5 17.3% 18.0% 12.2% 1.48× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 15.5% 18.0% 19.1% 0.94× 5.56
Hamburger SV & over 1.5 12.9% 12.9% 27.7% 0.46× 7.78
Draw & under 2.5 12.3% 12.9% 15.4% 0.84× 7.78
Draw & under 3.5 12.3% 12.9% 15.4% 0.84× 7.78
Hamburger SV & over 2.5 10.8% 12.9% 23.5% 0.55× 7.78
Hamburger SV & under 3.5 11.3% 12.9% 19.5% 0.66× 7.78
Hoffenheim & under 1.5 8.1% 7.9% 6.2% 1.29× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 6.9% 7.9% 9.5% 0.83× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 6.9% 7.9% 9.5% 0.83× 12.63
Hamburger SV & under 2.5 5.9% 7.9% 10.2% 0.78× 12.63
Hamburger SV & over 3.5 5.5% 7.9% 14.2% 0.56× 12.63
Hamburger SV & under 1.5 3.8% 4.8% 6.0% 0.80× 20.84
Draw & under 1.5 3.6% 4.8% 5.8% 0.82× 20.84
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim (1UP) 76.7% 78.8% 59.9% 1.32× 1.27
Hamburger SV (1UP) 36.4% 33.7% 52.5% 0.64× 2.97
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim (2UP) 64.1% 68.2% 45.1% 1.51× 1.47
Hamburger SV (2UP) 16.7% 17.4% 36.5% 0.48× 5.74
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim to win 2nd half 39.4% 36.1% 37.1% 0.97× 2.77
2nd half drawn 36.3% 36.0% 33.7% 1.07× 2.77
Hamburger SV to win 2nd half 24.3% 23.9% 29.3% 0.82× 4.18
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV under 1.5 in 2nd half 87.1% 87.5% 79.7% 1.10× 1.14
Hamburger SV under 0.5 in 2nd half 53.7% 52.8% 43.1% 1.22× 1.90
Hamburger SV over 0.5 in 2nd half 46.3% 47.2% 56.9% 0.83× 2.12
Hamburger SV over 1.5 in 2nd half 12.9% 12.5% 20.3% 0.62× 7.99
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim under 1.5 in 2nd half 78.0% 75.6% 74.4% 1.02× 1.32
Hoffenheim over 0.5 in 2nd half 58.5% 57.9% 62.6% 0.93× 1.73
Hoffenheim under 0.5 in 2nd half 41.5% 42.1% 37.4% 1.12× 2.37
Hoffenheim over 1.5 in 2nd half 22.0% 24.4% 25.6% 0.95× 4.10
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim (+0.5) 83.3% 82.5% 66.5% 1.24× 1.21
Hamburger SV (+2.5) 77.8% 78.5% 88.0% 0.89× 1.27
Hoffenheim (-0.5) 64.1% 62.9% 41.8% 1.50× 1.59
Hamburger SV (+1.5) 58.6% 57.0% 75.1% 0.76× 1.75
Hoffenheim (-1.5) 41.4% 43.0% 24.9% 1.72× 2.33
Hamburger SV (+0.5) 35.9% 37.1% 58.2% 0.64× 2.70
Hoffenheim (-2.5) 22.2% 21.5% 12.0% 1.79× 4.65
Hamburger SV (-0.5) 16.7% 17.5% 33.5% 0.52× 5.72
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV to concede 89.5% 86.4% 79.1% 1.09× 1.16
Hamburger SV clean sheet 10.5% 13.6% 20.9% 0.65× 7.33
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV to concede in 1st half 74.8% 77.6% 52.1% 1.49× 1.29
Hamburger SV clean sheet in 1st half 25.2% 22.4% 47.9% 0.47× 4.47
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV to concede in 2nd half 58.5% 57.6% 62.6% 0.92× 1.74
Hamburger SV clean sheet in 2nd half 41.5% 42.4% 37.4% 1.13× 2.36
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV under 3.5 goals 97.6% 97.5% 92.6% 1.05× 1.03
Hamburger SV under 2.5 goals 90.7% 92.3% 79.1% 1.17× 1.08
Hamburger SV under 1.5 goals 71.0% 71.9% 57.2% 1.26× 1.39
Hamburger SV over 0.5 goals 65.7% 67.9% 74.5% 0.91× 1.47
Hamburger SV under 0.5 goals 34.3% 32.1% 25.5% 1.26× 3.12
Hamburger SV over 1.5 goals 29.0% 28.1% 42.8% 0.66× 3.56
Hamburger SV over 2.5 goals 9.3% 7.7% 20.9% 0.37× 13.00
Hamburger SV over 3.5 goals 2.4% 2.5% 7.4% 0.34× 39.94
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV under 1.5 in 1st half 92.5% 94.0% 85.7% 1.10× 1.06
Hamburger SV under 0.5 in 1st half 63.9% 64.2% 54.5% 1.18× 1.56
Hamburger SV over 0.5 in 1st half 36.1% 35.8% 45.5% 0.79× 2.79
Hamburger SV over 1.5 in 1st half 7.5% 6.0% 14.3% 0.42× 16.73
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV scores equally in both 44.6% 44.2% 39.4% 1.12× 2.26
Hamburger SV scores more in 2nd half 33.4% 33.5% 36.7% 0.91× 2.98
Hamburger SV scores more in 1st half 22.0% 21.9% 24.0% 0.91× 4.56
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim (away no bet) 77.0% 73.5% 62.8% 1.17× 1.36
Draw (away no bet) 23.0% 26.5% 37.2% 0.71× 3.77
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV even goals 55.9% 56.9% 53.4% 1.07× 1.76
Hamburger SV odd goals 44.1% 43.1% 46.6% 0.92× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 75.9% 81.6% 75.3% 1.08× 1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals 24.1% 18.5% 24.7% 0.75× 5.42
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 74.6% 67.6% 72.4% 0.93× 1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals 25.4% 32.4% 27.6% 1.18× 3.08
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 68.5% 62.2% 66.9% 0.93× 1.61
Hoffenheim to score 2+ in a row 57.6% 55.2% 42.5% 1.30× 1.81
Either team to score 3+ in a row 32.2% 29.2% 29.6% 0.99× 3.42
Hoffenheim to score 3+ in a row 28.6% 25.2% 17.9% 1.41× 3.97
Hamburger SV to score 2+ in a row 18.9% 16.3% 34.4% 0.48× 6.13
Hamburger SV to score 3+ in a row 4.1% 2.7% 12.6% 0.21× 37.61
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 8.7% 7.4% 9.7% 0.76× 13.50
2-0 9.2% 7.4% 6.2% 1.20× 13.50
2-1 9.8% 7.4% 6.9% 1.07× 13.50
1-0 8.1% 7.4% 6.2% 1.20× 13.50
3-0 6.9% 7.4% 2.8% 2.67× 13.50
3-1 7.4% 7.4% 6.2% 1.20× 13.50
Any other score 8.3% 7.4% 5.7% 1.30× 13.50
2-2 5.2% 7.4% 6.5% 1.15× 13.50
0-0 3.6% 1.7% 5.8% 0.29× 58.33
0-1 3.8% 1.7% 6.0% 0.29× 58.33
0-2 2.1% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.34
0-3 0.7% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.35
0-4 0.2% 1.7% 1.5% 1.11× 58.35
1-2 4.6% 1.7% 6.8% 0.25× 58.33
1-3 1.7% 1.7% 4.8% 0.36× 58.34
1-4 0.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.01× 58.35
2-3 1.9% 1.7% 2.6% 0.66× 58.34
2-4 0.5% 1.7% 1.1% 1.59× 58.35
3-2 3.9% 1.7% 3.5% 0.48× 58.33
3-3 1.4% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.35
3-4 0.4% 1.7% 1.5% 1.11× 58.35
4-0 3.9% 1.7% 3.5% 0.48× 58.33
4-1 4.2% 1.7% 2.2% 0.80× 58.33
4-2 2.2% 1.7% 1.1% 1.59× 58.34
4-3 0.8% 1.7% 0.9% 1.86× 58.35
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.5% 3.71× 58.35
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim (2nd half DNB) 61.8% 61.0% 55.9% 1.09× 1.64
Hamburger SV (2nd half DNB) 38.2% 39.0% 44.1% 0.89× 2.56
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim leading at HT (DNB) 83.4% 86.4% 55.8% 1.55× 1.16
Hamburger SV leading at HT (DNB) 16.6% 13.6% 44.2% 0.31× 7.37
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim or draw (1X) 83.3% 80.6% 66.5% 1.21× 1.24
Hoffenheim or Hamburger SV (12) 80.9% 80.6% 75.2% 1.07× 1.24
Hamburger SV or draw (X2) 35.9% 41.9% 58.2% 0.72× 2.39
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim or draw at HT 88.0% 88.0% 70.6% 1.25× 1.14
Hoffenheim or Hamburger SV at HT 72.3% 74.7% 66.4% 1.13× 1.34
Hamburger SV or draw at HT 39.7% 30.1% 62.9% 0.48× 3.32
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim or draw (1UP) 83.3% 88.6% 73.7% 1.20× 1.13
Hamburger SV or draw (1UP) 36.4% 41.2% 64.9% 0.63× 2.43
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim or draw in 2nd half 75.7% 76.1% 70.7% 1.08× 1.31
Hoffenheim or Hamburger SV in 2nd half 63.7% 64.0% 66.3% 0.97× 1.56
Hamburger SV or draw in 2nd half 60.6% 63.9% 62.9% 1.02× 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 53.9% 50.3% 53.6% 0.94× 1.99
Neither half drawn 46.1% 49.7% 46.4% 1.07× 2.01
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim (DNB) 79.3% 74.7% 55.5% 1.35× 1.34
Hamburger SV (DNB) 20.7% 25.3% 44.5% 0.57× 3.95
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim to score first 65.4% 69.4% 51.0% 1.36× 1.44
Hamburger SV to score first 31.0% 26.9% 43.3% 0.62× 3.71
No goal scored 3.6% 4.4% 5.9% 0.75× 22.88
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 58.8% 55.0% 59.4% 0.93× 1.82
Not both teams to score 41.2% 45.0% 40.6% 1.11× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 50.1% 47.2% 49.8% 0.95× 2.12
Not both score & under 2.5 26.8% 33.4% 27.8% 1.20× 3.00
Not both score & over 2.5 14.4% 12.4% 12.9% 0.96× 8.09
Both score & under 2.5 8.7% 8.3% 9.7% 0.86× 12.04
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 80.9% 82.6% 79.7% 1.04× 1.21
Both teams to score 2+ 19.1% 17.4% 20.3% 0.86× 5.75
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 72.9% 73.9% 65.2% 1.13× 1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half 27.1% 26.1% 34.8% 0.75× 3.83
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 53.2% 55.1% 51.5% 1.07× 1.81
Both score 2nd half only 19.7% 15.5% 28.2% 0.55× 6.45
Both score 1st half only 19.7% 15.5% 13.9% 1.12× 6.45
Both score in both halves 7.3% 6.9% 6.8% 1.02× 14.50
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 73.0% 80.2% 79.5% 1.01× 1.25
Both teams to score by HT 27.0% 19.8% 20.5% 0.97× 5.04
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 65.2% 66.1% 67.5% 0.98× 1.51
A half without a goal 34.8% 33.9% 32.5% 1.04× 2.95
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 41.9% 42.1% 38.6% 1.09× 2.38
4-6 goals 37.3% 35.1% 40.0% 0.88× 2.85
0-1 goals 15.6% 20.2% 17.7% 1.14× 4.95
7+ goals 5.2% 7.6% 4.0% 1.90× 13.18
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV to score exactly 1 36.7% 35.9% 31.8% 1.13× 2.78
Hamburger SV to score exactly 0 34.3% 33.8% 25.5% 1.33× 2.96
Hamburger SV to score exactly 2 19.6% 19.6% 22.0% 0.89× 5.11
Hamburger SV to score 3+ 9.3% 8.6% 20.9% 0.41× 11.67
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim to score 3+ 39.2% 35.6% 27.7% 1.28× 2.81
Hoffenheim to score exactly 2 26.7% 26.5% 22.8% 1.17× 3.77
Hoffenheim to score exactly 1 23.6% 23.3% 28.9% 0.81× 4.29
Hoffenheim to score exactly 0 10.5% 14.3% 20.9% 0.68× 6.98
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim leading at HT 60.3% 69.9% 37.1% 1.88× 1.43
Draw at HT 27.7% 25.3% 33.6% 0.75× 3.96
Hamburger SV leading at HT 12.0% 12.0% 29.4% 0.41× 8.31
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim -1: 1 41.4% 42.8% — — 2.34
Hoffenheim -1: 2 35.9% 37.4% — — 2.67
Hoffenheim -1: X 22.7% 23.5% — — 4.25
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim (0:1) 41.4% 42.7% 24.9% 1.71× 2.34
Hamburger SV (0:1) 35.9% 37.3% 58.2% 0.64× 2.68
Draw (0:1) 22.7% 24.2% 17.1% 1.42× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV (0:2) 58.6% 63.0% 75.1% 0.84× 1.59
Hoffenheim (0:2) 22.2% 20.3% 12.0% 1.69× 4.93
Draw (0:2) 19.1% 15.3% 13.1% 1.17× 6.55
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV (0:3) 77.8% 80.6% 88.0% 0.92× 1.24
Draw (0:3) 12.2% 10.0% 5.1% 1.97× 10.02
Hoffenheim (0:3) 10.0% 9.9% 7.1% 1.41× 10.05
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV (0:4) 90.0% 92.0% 92.9% 0.99× 1.09
Draw (0:4) 6.2% 4.6% 5.1% 0.91× 21.64
Hoffenheim (0:4) 3.9% 1.2% 2.2% 0.56× 82.41
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim (1:0) 83.3% 81.3% 66.5% 1.22× 1.23
Draw (1:0) 10.8% 12.7% 16.5% 0.77× 7.85
Hamburger SV (1:0) 6.0% 6.9% 17.2% 0.40× 14.51
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim (2:0) 94.0% 94.0% 82.8% 1.14× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 4.3% 2.3% 10.0% 0.23× 43.43
Hamburger SV (2:0) 1.7% 2.3% 7.4% 0.31× 43.59
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1st half highest scoring 45.5% 48.2% 25.7% 1.87× 2.08
2nd half highest scoring 31.9% 29.9% 47.3% 0.63× 3.34
Halves equal 22.6% 24.3% 27.1% 0.90× 4.11
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim to concede 65.7% 66.6% 74.5% 0.89× 1.50
Hoffenheim clean sheet 34.3% 33.4% 25.5% 1.31× 2.99
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim clean sheet in 1st half 63.9% 64.2% 54.5% 1.18× 1.56
Hoffenheim to concede in 1st half 36.1% 35.8% 45.5% 0.79× 2.80
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim clean sheet in 2nd half 53.7% 52.7% 43.1% 1.22× 1.90
Hoffenheim to concede in 2nd half 46.3% 47.3% 56.9% 0.83× 2.11
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim over 0.5 goals 89.5% 87.3% 79.1% 1.10× 1.15
Hoffenheim under 3.5 goals 80.8% 82.2% 88.5% 0.93× 1.22
Hoffenheim over 1.5 goals 65.9% 67.9% 50.3% 1.35× 1.47
Hoffenheim under 2.5 goals 60.8% 63.6% 72.3% 0.88× 1.57
Hoffenheim over 2.5 goals 39.2% 36.4% 27.7% 1.32× 2.75
Hoffenheim under 1.5 goals 34.1% 32.1% 49.7% 0.65× 3.12
Hoffenheim over 3.5 goals 19.2% 17.8% 11.5% 1.55× 5.61
Hoffenheim under 0.5 goals 10.5% 12.7% 20.9% 0.61× 7.86
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim over 0.5 in 1st half 74.8% 79.3% 52.1% 1.52× 1.26
Hoffenheim under 1.5 in 1st half 60.0% 57.7% 80.6% 0.72× 1.73
Hoffenheim over 1.5 in 1st half 40.0% 42.3% 19.4% 2.18× 2.36
Hoffenheim under 0.5 in 1st half 25.2% 20.7% 47.9% 0.43× 4.84
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim scores more in 1st half 48.5% 47.7% 25.4% 1.87× 2.10
Hoffenheim scores equally in both 27.6% 27.9% 36.5% 0.77× 3.58
Hoffenheim scores more in 2nd half 24.0% 21.3% 38.2% 0.56× 4.70
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 53.3% 51.5% 42.5% 1.21× 1.94
Hamburger SV (home no bet) 46.7% 48.5% 57.5% 0.84× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim even goals 50.6% 50.7% 52.2% 0.97× 1.97
Hoffenheim odd goals 49.4% 49.3% 47.8% 1.03× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 1-0 22.2% 24.2% 19.6% 1.24× 4.13
Any other HT score 17.0% 18.9% 6.6% 2.85× 5.29
HT 0-0 16.1% 18.9% 23.0% 0.82× 5.30
HT 2-0 15.3% 18.9% 9.7% 1.94× 5.30
HT 1-1 9.9% 7.0% 9.6% 0.73× 14.31
HT 0-1 7.2% 7.0% 16.5% 0.42× 14.36
HT 2-1 6.9% 7.0% 4.3% 1.61× 14.36
HT 1-2 2.2% 2.4% 3.5% 0.67× 42.38
HT 0-2 1.6% 2.4% 7.2% 0.33× 42.42
HT 2-2 1.5% 2.4% 1.2% 1.91× 42.43
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim at HT / Hoffenheim at FT 51.8% 53.7% 28.5% 1.88× 1.86
Draw at HT / Hoffenheim at FT 10.9% 12.6% 10.3% 1.22× 7.92
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 10.0% 12.6% 13.7% 0.92× 7.93
Hamburger SV at HT / Hamburger SV at FT 7.9% 6.1% 20.3% 0.30× 16.42
Draw at HT / Hamburger SV at FT 6.7% 6.1% 9.9% 0.62× 16.45
Hoffenheim at HT / Draw at FT 6.4% 6.1% 5.2% 1.16× 16.46
Hamburger SV at HT / Draw at FT 2.7% 3.5% 6.0% 0.58× 28.90
Hoffenheim at HT / Hamburger SV at FT 2.1% 3.5% 3.7% 0.94× 28.92
Hamburger SV at HT / Hoffenheim at FT 1.4% 3.5% 3.4% 1.02× 28.95
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim to score last 65.4% 70.0% 49.9% 1.40× 1.43
Hamburger SV to score last 31.0% 32.7% 44.4% 0.74× 3.06
No goal scored 3.6% 4.4% 5.9% 0.75× 22.88
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 96.4% 95.6% 94.1% 1.02× 1.05
Hoffenheim to lead by 1 at any time 76.7% 78.2% 59.9% 1.30× 1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 59.4% 55.2% 56.1% 0.98× 1.81
Hoffenheim to lead by 2 at any time 48.9% 44.4% 33.3% 1.33× 2.25
Hamburger SV to lead by 1 at any time 36.4% 34.4% 52.5% 0.66× 2.91
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 28.6% 25.4% 25.7% 0.99× 3.94
Hoffenheim to lead by 3 at any time 25.9% 25.3% 15.7% 1.61× 3.95
Hamburger SV to lead by 2 at any time 11.0% 10.4% 23.6% 0.44× 9.60
Hamburger SV to lead by 3 at any time 2.8% 1.6% 10.2% 0.16× 60.88
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 84.4% 83.4% 83.2% 1.00× 1.20
2-6 goals 79.2% 78.7% 78.5% 1.00× 1.27
2-5 goals 72.5% 72.4% 71.4% 1.01× 1.38
1-4 goals 72.2% 72.4% 72.2% 1.00× 1.38
2-4 goals 60.3% 63.4% 60.3% 1.05× 1.58
3-6 goals 59.3% 59.1% 58.8% 1.01× 1.69
1-3 goals 53.9% 53.2% 50.5% 1.05× 1.88
3-5 goals 52.6% 53.2% 51.7% 1.03× 1.88
2-3 goals 41.9% 43.6% 38.6% 1.13× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.4% 43.6% 40.6% 1.07× 2.29
4-6 goals 37.3% 39.2% 40.0% 0.98× 2.55
1-2 goals 31.8% 35.2% 31.7% 1.11× 2.84
4-5 goals 30.5% 35.2% 32.9% 1.07× 2.84
5-6 goals 19.0% 18.8% 18.3% 1.03× 5.32
7+ goals 5.2% 8.9% 4.0% 2.22× 11.28
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim never behind 60.0% 68.0% 47.5% 1.43× 1.47
Hamburger SV never behind 19.7% 18.5% 40.1% 0.46× 5.40
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.9% 50.9% 45.1% 1.13× 1.96
Even number of goals 50.1% 49.1% 54.9% 0.89× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 51.3% 51.6% 52.2% 0.99× 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 48.7% 48.4% 47.8% 1.01× 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.5% 51.9% 53.2% 0.98× 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.5% 48.1% 46.8% 1.03× 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 96.4% 95.4% 94.2% 1.01× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 88.0% 87.6% 88.9% 0.99× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 84.4% 82.3% 82.3% 1.00× 1.22
Under 4.5 goals 75.8% 77.3% 77.8% 0.99× 1.29
Over 2.5 goals 64.6% 61.7% 62.6% 0.99× 1.62
Under 3.5 goals 57.5% 58.6% 56.2% 1.04× 1.71
Over 3.5 goals 42.5% 41.4% 43.8% 0.94× 2.42
Under 2.5 goals 35.4% 38.3% 37.4% 1.02× 2.61
Over 4.5 goals 24.2% 22.7% 22.2% 1.02× 4.41
Under 1.5 goals 15.6% 17.7% 17.7% 1.00× 5.66
Over 5.5 goals 12.0% 12.4% 11.1% 1.12× 8.07
Under 0.5 goals 3.6% 4.6% 5.8% 0.78× 21.83
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 94.4% 92.4% 95.7% 0.97× 1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 86.4% 86.7% 87.5% 0.99× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 80.6% 81.1% 78.0% 1.04× 1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 70.4% 72.4% 71.7% 1.01× 1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 54.5% 51.9% 54.0% 0.96× 1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 45.5% 48.1% 46.0% 1.05× 2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 29.6% 27.6% 28.3% 0.98× 3.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 19.4% 18.9% 22.0% 0.86× 5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 13.6% 13.3% 12.5% 1.07× 7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 5.6% 7.6% 4.3% 1.76× 13.19
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half 83.9% 86.0% 77.0% 1.12× 1.16
Under 2.5 in 1st half 72.4% 71.5% 84.7% 0.84× 1.40
Over 1.5 in 1st half 54.5% 54.9% 41.3% 1.33× 1.82
Under 1.5 in 1st half 45.5% 45.1% 58.7% 0.77× 2.22
Over 2.5 in 1st half 27.6% 28.5% 15.3% 1.87× 3.51
Under 0.5 in 1st half 16.1% 14.0% 23.0% 0.61× 7.16
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 80.9% 82.9% 73.2% 1.13× 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 77.7% 79.8% 84.6% 0.94× 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 55.8% 55.1% 44.2% 1.24× 1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 44.2% 44.9% 55.8% 0.81× 2.23
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 22.3% 20.2% 15.4% 1.31× 4.94
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 19.1% 17.1% 26.8% 0.64× 5.85
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV not to score in both halves 83.3% 84.1% 72.1% 1.17× 1.19
Hoffenheim not to score in both halves 56.3% 57.7% 64.4% 0.90× 1.73
Hoffenheim to score in both halves 43.7% 42.3% 35.6% 1.19× 2.36
Hamburger SV to score in both halves 16.7% 15.9% 27.9% 0.57× 6.30
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 58.8% 58.7% 59.4% 0.99× 1.70
Only Hoffenheim scores 30.7% 33.3% 19.8% 1.68× 3.00
Only Hamburger SV scores 6.9% 7.1% 15.2% 0.47× 14.04
Neither team scores 3.6% 4.6% 5.8% 0.79× 21.54
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.1% 22.6% 18.9% 1.19× 4.42
Exactly 2 goals 19.9% 17.4% 19.8% 0.88× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 18.3% 17.4% 21.8% 0.80× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 12.0% 12.1% 12.0% 1.01× 8.26
Exactly 5 goals 12.2% 12.1% 11.2% 1.08× 8.26
6 or more goals 12.0% 12.1% 11.1% 1.09× 8.26
Exactly 0 goals 3.6% 4.5% 5.8% 0.77× 22.36
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 29.4% 28.4% 35.9% 0.79× 3.53
3+ goals in 1st half 27.6% 28.3% 15.3% 1.86× 3.53
2 goals in 1st half 26.9% 28.3% 26.2% 1.08× 3.54
No goals in 1st half 16.1% 15.3% 23.0% 0.67× 6.52
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 44.2% 44.0% 55.8% 0.79× 2.27
1 goal in 2nd half 33.5% 33.7% 29.0% 1.16× 2.97
No goals in 2nd half 22.3% 22.4% 15.4% 1.46× 4.46
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV not to win both halves 97.1% 97.1% 90.8% 1.07× 1.03
Hoffenheim not to win both halves 76.2% 75.1% 83.8% 0.90× 1.33
Hoffenheim to win both halves 23.8% 24.9% 16.2% 1.54× 4.01
Hamburger SV to win both halves 2.9% 2.9% 9.2% 0.31× 34.92
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim to win either half 76.0% 79.7% 58.1% 1.37× 1.25
Hamburger SV to win neither half 66.6% 67.9% 50.5% 1.34× 1.47
Hamburger SV to win either half 33.4% 32.1% 49.5% 0.65× 3.11
Hoffenheim to win neither half 24.0% 20.3% 41.9% 0.48× 4.93
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV not to win to nil 93.1% 92.1% 84.8% 1.09× 1.09
Hoffenheim not to win to nil 69.3% 69.7% 80.2% 0.87× 1.44
Hoffenheim to win to nil 30.7% 30.3% 19.8% 1.53× 3.30
Hamburger SV to win to nil 6.9% 7.9% 15.2% 0.52× 12.66
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim by 1 22.7% 24.1% 17.1% 1.41× 4.15
Hoffenheim by 3+ 22.2% 24.1% 12.0% 2.01× 4.15
Hoffenheim by 2 19.1% 17.0% 13.1% 1.30× 5.87
Draw 19.1% 17.0% 24.8% 0.69× 5.87
Hamburger SV by 1 10.8% 11.7% 16.5% 0.71× 8.51
Hamburger SV by 2 4.3% 2.7% 10.0% 0.27× 36.65
Hamburger SV by 3+ 1.7% 2.7% 7.4% 0.37× 36.73
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.91.31.70'15'30'45'60'75'90'Yussuf Poulsen 11' — goalBambasé Conté 52' — goalTerem Igobor Moffi 82' — goalMiro Muheim 93' — goal
Hoffenheim 0.93 xGHamburger SV 1.56 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Fisnik Asllani 0' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Fábio Vieira 1' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Nicolai Remberg 1' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)Tim Lemperle 3' — Missed Shot (0.15 xG, Open Play)Fábio Vieira 7' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Nicolás Capaldo 11' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Yussuf Poulsen 11' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Yussuf Poulsen 11' — Goal (0.63 xG, Set Piece)David Møller Wolfe 19' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Tim Lemperle 24' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Koki Machida 37' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Bambasé Conté 40' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Vladimir Coufal 41' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Tim Lemperle 42' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Fisnik Asllani 45' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Ozan Kabak 45' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Wouter Burger 45' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Wouter Burger 47' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Fábio Vieira 49' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Fisnik Asllani 49' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Sebastiaan Bornauw 50' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, From Corner)Tim Lemperle 50' — Saved Shot (0.13 xG, From Corner)Bambasé Conté 52' — Goal (0.08 xG, Open Play)Ozan Kabak 57' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Tim Lemperle 58' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Fábio Vieira 66' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Andrej Kramaric 71' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Terem Igobor Moffi 78' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Terem Igobor Moffi 82' — Goal (0.29 xG, Open Play)Fábio Vieira 87' — Saved Shot (0.18 xG, Open Play)Nicolás Capaldo 88' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit 89' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Miro Muheim 93' — Goal (0.03 xG, From Corner)
Hoffenheim attacking right Hamburger SV attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
0' Hoffenheim Fisnik Asllani 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ozan Kabak
1' Hamburger SV Fábio Vieira 0.05 Direct Freekick Left Foot Blocked Shot —
1' Hamburger SV Nicolai Remberg 0.06 Set Piece — Missed Shot Fábio Vieira
3' Hoffenheim Tim Lemperle 0.15 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Adam Daghim
7' Hamburger SV Fábio Vieira 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
11' Hamburger SV Nicolás Capaldo 0.04 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot Yussuf Poulsen
11' Hamburger SV Yussuf Poulsen 0.04 Set Piece — Missed Shot Albert Sambi Lokonga
11' Hamburger SV Yussuf Poulsen 0.63 Set Piece Left Foot Goal —
19' Hamburger SV David Møller Wolfe 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Albert Sambi Lokonga
24' Hoffenheim Tim Lemperle 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
37' Hoffenheim Koki Machida 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Leon Avdullahu
40' Hoffenheim Bambasé Conté 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Vladimir Coufal
41' Hoffenheim Vladimir Coufal 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
42' Hoffenheim Tim Lemperle 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
45' Hoffenheim Fisnik Asllani 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
45' Hoffenheim Ozan Kabak 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
45' Hoffenheim Wouter Burger 0.03 Open Play — Saved Shot Vladimir Coufal
47' Hoffenheim Wouter Burger 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Fisnik Asllani
49' Hamburger SV Fábio Vieira 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Miro Muheim
49' Hoffenheim Fisnik Asllani 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Bambasé Conté
50' Hamburger SV Sebastiaan Bornauw 0.00 From Corner — Own Goal —
50' Hoffenheim Tim Lemperle 0.13 From Corner — Saved Shot Vladimir Coufal
52' Hoffenheim Bambasé Conté 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Goal Fisnik Asllani
57' Hoffenheim Ozan Kabak 0.02 From Corner — Blocked Shot Vladimir Coufal
58' Hoffenheim Tim Lemperle 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Adam Daghim
66' Hamburger SV Fábio Vieira 0.02 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot Albert Sambi Lokonga
71' Hoffenheim Andrej Kramaric 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Leon Avdullahu
78' Hamburger SV Terem Igobor Moffi 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
82' Hamburger SV Terem Igobor Moffi 0.29 Open Play — Goal Miro Muheim
87' Hamburger SV Fábio Vieira 0.18 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Nicolás Capaldo
88' Hamburger SV Nicolás Capaldo 0.02 From Corner — Missed Shot Miro Muheim
89' Hamburger SV Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
93' Hamburger SV Miro Muheim 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Goal —

Players

Hoffenheim

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Bambasé Conté AMR 90 1 0 2 1 0.19 0.06 0.26
Wouter Burger DMC 90 0 0 2 0 0.08 0.00 0.28
Ozan Kabak DC 90 0 0 2 1 0.04 0.03 0.48
Vladimir Coufal DR 90 0 0 1 4 0.02 0.29 0.27
Oliver Baumann GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.16
Leon Avdullahu DMC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.04 0.21
Koki Machida DC 81 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.29
Adam Daghim AML 81 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.19 0.50
Bernardo DL 72 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.26
Tim Lemperle FW 70 0 0 5 0 0.41 0.00 0.28
Fisnik Asllani AMC 70 0 1 3 2 0.15 0.13 0.53
Andrej Kramaric Sub 20 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Adam Hlozek Sub 20 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Robin Hranác Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Alexander Prass Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Valentin Gendrey Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Hamburger SV

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Fábio Vieira AMC 90 0 0 5 1 0.31 0.06 0.57
Nicolás Capaldo DC 90 0 0 2 1 0.05 0.18 0.18
David Møller Wolfe DMR 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.32
Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Warmed Omari DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.29
Sebastiaan Bornauw DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.29
Albert Sambi Lokonga MC 83 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.09 0.03
Louis Lemke DML 83 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Martin Adeline MC 83 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Yussuf Poulsen FW 66 1 0 2 1 0.67 0.04 0.00
Miro Muheim Sub 50 1 1 1 3 0.03 0.36 0.34
Nicolai Remberg MC 40 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.03
Otto Stange Sub 24 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Terem Igobor Moffi Sub 7 1 0 2 0 0.38 0.00 0.38
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit Sub 7 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.49
Kofi Amoako Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.29
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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