Hoffenheim v Mainz 05 — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 12 April 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 14
On target
5 – 1
Shots in box
7 – 11
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.17
Goals − xG
+0.58 – -0.97
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hoffenheim win
21.3%
Draw
24.5%
Mainz 05 win
54.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDWWDWLLL last 10
scored 15
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 19.0 xG
Mainz 05 are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLDLWLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 23.4 xG
conceded 12
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.05–1.80 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hoffenheim 1.42 xGMainz 05 0.97 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hoffenheim attacking right
Mainz 05 attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.81 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Bazoumana Touré |
| 11' |
 Mainz 05 |
Nelson Weiper | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Anthony Caci |
| 23' |
Mainz 05 |
Moritz Jenz | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Anthony Caci |
| 24' |
Mainz 05 |
Nikolas Veratschnig | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 28' |
Mainz 05 |
Nelson Weiper | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nikolas Veratschnig |
| 31' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bazoumana Touré |
| 45' |
Hoffenheim |
Marius Bülter | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andrej Kramaric |
| 50' |
Hoffenheim |
Anton Stach | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
Hoffenheim |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Hoffenheim |
Arthur Chaves | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Tom Bischof |
| 55' |
Mainz 05 |
Nelson Weiper | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Anthony Caci |
| 56' |
Mainz 05 |
Nelson Weiper | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Anthony Caci |
| 64' |
Mainz 05 |
Anthony Caci | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Arnaud Nordin |
| 66' |
Mainz 05 |
Kaishu Sano | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 69' |
Mainz 05 |
Nelson Weiper | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 71' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Anthony Caci |
| 72' |
Hoffenheim |
Anton Stach | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adam Hlozek |
| 75' |
Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kaishu Sano |
| 82' |
Hoffenheim |
Adam Hlozek | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Mainz 05 |
Nelson Weiper | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jae-Sung Lee |
| 85' |
Mainz 05 |
Armindo Sieb | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Anthony Caci |
| 92' |
Mainz 05 |
Armindo Sieb | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hong Hyun-Seok |
Players
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Stach DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Arthur Chaves DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Valentin Gendrey DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Akpoguma DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stanley N'Soki DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Tom Bischof DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Andrej Kramaric AMC | 88 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1.11 | 0.07 | 1.19 |
| Haris Tabakovic FW | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Marius Bülter AML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Bazoumana Touré AMR | 70 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 1.11 | 1.11 |
| Adam Hlozek Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| David Jurásek Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Erencan Yardimci Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dennis Geiger Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Mainz 05
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Weiper FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Anthony Caci DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.11 | 0.41 | 0.73 |
| Jae-Sung Lee MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| Kaishu Sano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.27 |
| Paul Nebel AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.23 | 0.59 |
| Moritz Jenz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Robin Zentner GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Danny da Costa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Dominik Kohr DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Nikolas Veratschnig AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Arnaud Nordin Sub | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.30 |
| Philipp Mwene DML | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Armindo Sieb Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Hong Hyun-Seok Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |