Hoffenheim v Mainz 05 — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 4 April 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 9
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
9 – 9
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.28
Set-piece xG
0.86 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.53 – -0.56
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hoffenheim win
58.0%
Draw
22.8%
Mainz 05 win
19.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDWWDWLLL last 10
scored 15
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 19.0 xG
Mainz 05 are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLWLWD last 10
scored 15
from 22.2 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.04–1.11 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.13–1.49 | 2-1 9% | 70% | 68% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hoffenheim 1.53 xGMainz 05 2.56 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hoffenheim attacking right
Mainz 05 attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tim Lemperle |
| 8' |
Hoffenheim |
Grischa Prömel | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.76 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
Hoffenheim |
Tim Lemperle | 0.15 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 12' |
 Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.37 | Open Play | — | Goal | Philipp Mwene |
| 12' |
Mainz 05 |
Sheraldo Becker | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 22' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Bazoumana Touré |
| 24' |
Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.34 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 27' |
Hoffenheim |
Vladimir Coufal | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 30' |
Hoffenheim |
Albian Hajdari | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 32' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Grischa Prömel |
| 38' |
Hoffenheim |
Albian Hajdari | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sheraldo Becker |
| 46' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tim Lemperle |
| 46' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Hoffenheim |
Tim Lemperle | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alexander Prass |
| 57' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Albian Hajdari |
| 61' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Phillip Tietz |
| 62' |
Hoffenheim |
Alexander Prass | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 66' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 69' |
Hoffenheim |
Albian Hajdari | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 78' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Armindo Sieb |
| 78' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.48 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Philipp Mwene |
| 78' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.68 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 80' |
Hoffenheim |
Wouter Burger | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Bazoumana Touré |
Players
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bazoumana Touré FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.06 | 0.36 |
| Tim Lemperle FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 0.33 |
| Albian Hajdari DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| Wouter Burger DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| Grischa Prömel MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| Bernardo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Ozan Kabak DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Alexander Prass MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Fisnik Asllani MC | 64 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Vladimir Coufal DR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| Leon Avdullahu Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Andrej Kramaric Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ihlas Bebou Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Max Moerstedt Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Mainz 05
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Tietz FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.62 | 0.04 | 1.66 |
| Paul Nebel MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.74 | 0.94 |
| Philipp Mwene DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.85 | 1.25 |
| Kaishu Sano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Daniel Batz GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefan Posch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Danny da Costa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Jae-Sung Lee MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Sheraldo Becker FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.10 | 0.87 |
| Kacper Potulski Sub | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Silvan Widmer DMR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Nikolas Veratschnig Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Dominik Kohr DC | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Armindo Sieb Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.54 |
| Sota Kawasaki Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lennard Maloney Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |