Hoffenheim v RasenBallsport Leipzig — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 8 November 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 17
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
7 – 10
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
1.18 – 0.14
Goals − xG
+0.98 – -0.56
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hoffenheim win
32.8%
Draw
24.6%
RasenBallsport Leipzig win
42.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDWWDWLLL last 10
scored 15
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 19.0 xG
RasenBallsport Leipzig are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWWWWLWLWL last 10
scored 22
from 24.3 xG
conceded 15
from 15.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.44–1.67 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.89–1.85 | 1-1 8% | 72% | 72% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hoffenheim 2.02 xGRasenBallsport Leipzig 1.56 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hoffenheim attacking right
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rômulo |
| 5' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolas Seiwald |
| 6' |
 Hoffenheim |
Grischa Prömel | 0.23 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 8' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Assan Ouédraogo |
| 11' |
Hoffenheim |
Vladimir Coufal | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Grischa Prömel |
| 12' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 19' |
Hoffenheim |
Albian Hajdari | 0.94 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Wouter Burger |
| 19' |
Hoffenheim |
Wouter Burger | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bazoumana Touré |
| 23' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 23' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Assan Ouédraogo | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Hoffenheim |
Bernardo | 0.09 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Andrej Kramaric |
| 28' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | David Raum |
| 30' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Assan Ouédraogo | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 34' |
Hoffenheim |
Leon Avdullahu | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Hoffenheim |
Leon Avdullahu | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrej Kramaric |
| 37' |
Hoffenheim |
Tim Lemperle | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Goal | Vladimir Coufal |
| 46' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
David Raum | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Bote Baku |
| 47' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Willi Orban | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 53' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Assan Ouédraogo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rômulo |
| 55' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 59' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
David Raum | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Antonio Nusa |
| 62' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Nicolas Seiwald | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Willi Orban |
| 78' |
Hoffenheim |
Grischa Prömel | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Fisnik Asllani |
| 87' |
Hoffenheim |
Alexander Prass | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Willi Orban | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Johan Bakayoko |
| 92' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Willi Orban | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | David Raum |
| 95' |
Hoffenheim |
Muhammed Damar | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alexander Prass |
Players
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albian Hajdari DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.94 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Grischa Prömel MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.02 | 0.35 |
| Wouter Burger MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.11 | 1.20 | 0.43 |
| Bernardo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leon Avdullahu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Vladimir Coufal DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.74 |
| Robin Hranác DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Tim Lemperle FW | 79 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Bazoumana Touré DML | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| Andrej Kramaric AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| Fisnik Asllani Sub | 20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Alexander Prass Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Ihlas Bebou Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Muhammed Damar Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Ozan Kabak Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Nusa FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.03 | 0.76 |
| Rômulo FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.32 | 0.19 | 0.66 |
| Willi Orban DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.04 | 0.61 |
| David Raum DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.07 | 0.49 | 0.57 |
| Bote Baku DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.49 |
| Christoph Baumgartner MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| El Chadaille Bitshiabu DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Péter Gulácsi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Nicolas Seiwald MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.32 |
| Yan Diomande FWR | 70 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.39 | 0.19 | 1.00 |
| Assan Ouédraogo MC | 70 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.33 | 0.97 |
| Ezechiel Banzuzi Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Johan Bakayoko Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Conrad Harder Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Lukas Klostermann Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tidiam Gomis Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |