Hoffenheim v St. Pauli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 28 February 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 11
On target
11 – 3
Shots in box
16 – 8
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.85 – 0.25
Goals − xG
-2.61 – +0.05
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hoffenheim win
67.7%
Draw
20.9%
St. Pauli win
11.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDWWDWLLL last 10
scored 15
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 19.0 xG
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDLDLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 10.7 xG
conceded 20
from 22.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.10–0.75 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.01–0.98 | 2-0 10% | 57% | 54% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hoffenheim 2.61 xGSt. Pauli 0.95 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hoffenheim attacking right
St. Pauli attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Hoffenheim |
Ozan Kabak | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 3' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 3' |
 St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 7' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Grischa Prömel |
| 7' |
Hoffenheim |
Grischa Prömel | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 8' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Grischa Prömel |
| 8' |
Hoffenheim |
Grischa Prömel | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 8' |
Hoffenheim |
Vladimir Coufal | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Robin Hranác |
| 9' |
St. Pauli |
Manolis Saliakas | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Joel Chima Fujita |
| 10' |
St. Pauli |
Manolis Saliakas | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Leon Avdullahu |
| 21' |
St. Pauli |
James Sands | 0.11 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Eric Smith |
| 25' |
Hoffenheim |
Ozan Kabak | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 26' |
Hoffenheim |
Robin Hranác | 0.31 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 28' |
Hoffenheim |
Grischa Prömel | 0.48 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 34' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 39' |
St. Pauli |
Joel Chima Fujita | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Manolis Saliakas |
| 41' |
St. Pauli |
Jackson Irvine | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 45' |
Hoffenheim |
Ozan Kabak | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 46' |
Hoffenheim |
Albian Hajdari | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 47' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arkadiusz Pyrka |
| 48' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.43 | Open Play | — | Goal | Manolis Saliakas |
| 50' |
Hoffenheim |
Grischa Prömel | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ozan Kabak |
| 58' |
Hoffenheim |
Grischa Prömel | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 64' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.44 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 75' |
St. Pauli |
Arkadiusz Pyrka | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Eric Smith |
| 79' |
Hoffenheim |
Ozan Kabak | 0.29 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 80' |
Hoffenheim |
Tim Lemperle | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Leon Avdullahu |
| 83' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 84' |
Hoffenheim |
Leon Avdullahu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alexander Prass |
| 91' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
Players
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grischa Prömel MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.74 | 0.41 | 1.11 |
| Bazoumana Touré ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Ozan Kabak DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.03 | 0.63 |
| Fisnik Asllani FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Vladimir Coufal MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0.04 | 1.13 | 0.66 |
| Leon Avdullahu DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| Albian Hajdari DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Andrej Kramaric FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Robin Hranác DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Wouter Burger MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Alexander Prass Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Tim Lemperle Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Bernardo Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cole Campbell Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Sands MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Joel Chima Fujita AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.59 |
| Manolis Saliakas DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.47 | 0.54 |
| Danel Sinani FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| Jackson Irvine MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Arkadiusz Pyrka DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Nikola Vasilj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Hauke Wahl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Eric Smith DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| Pereira Lage AMC | 79 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Karol Mets DC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Lars Ritzka Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Connor Metcalfe Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdoulie Ceesay Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |