Hoffenheim v Union Berlin — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 31 January 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 17
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
7 – 12
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.79 – 0.49
Goals − xG
+1.49 – -0.23
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hoffenheim win
51.2%
Draw
26.0%
Union Berlin win
22.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WDWLLLWLLW last 10
scored 17
from 20.0 xG
conceded 22
from 16.2 xG
Union Berlin have scored 15 from 14.2 expected and conceded 21 from 20.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWWDLLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 14.2 xG
conceded 21
from 20.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.78–1.13 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.62–1.46 | 1-1 11% | 59% | 62% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hoffenheim 1.51 xGUnion Berlin 1.23 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hoffenheim attacking right
Union Berlin attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Janik Haberer |
| 6' |
Union Berlin |
Rani Khedira | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 8' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Janik Haberer |
| 9' |
Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Leopold Querfeld |
| 9' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Janik Haberer |
| 19' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Danilho Doekhi |
| 27' |
 Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bazoumana Touré |
| 38' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Grischa Prömel |
| 41' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 44' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.29 | Open Play | — | Goal | Bazoumana Touré |
| 46' |
Union Berlin |
Diogo Leite | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 54' |
Union Berlin |
Aljoscha Kemlein | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andras Schafer |
| 59' |
Union Berlin |
Andras Schafer | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ilyas Ansah |
| 61' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bazoumana Touré |
| 66' |
Union Berlin |
Diogo Leite | 0.12 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Derrick Köhn |
| 67' |
Union Berlin |
Rani Khedira | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 72' |
Union Berlin |
Ilyas Ansah | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 81' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 82' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Max Moerstedt |
| 83' |
Union Berlin |
Andras Schafer | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rani Khedira |
| 85' |
Union Berlin |
Livan Burcu | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Union Berlin |
Rani Khedira | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Hoffenheim |
Vladimir Coufal | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alexander Prass |
| 89' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Leopold Querfeld |
| 91' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Janik Haberer |
| 96' |
Hoffenheim |
Ihlas Bebou | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Grischa Prömel |
Players
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Coufal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.38 |
| Albian Hajdari DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Robin Hranác DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Ozan Kabak DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Leon Avdullahu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Grischa Prömel MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.42 |
| Bazoumana Touré FWL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.52 |
| Andrej Kramaric MC | 86 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1.23 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Fisnik Asllani FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Tim Lemperle FWR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Max Moerstedt Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Ihlas Bebou Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Alexander Prass Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Kevin Akpoguma Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rani Khedira MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.03 | 0.47 |
| Andrej Ilic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.00 |
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Janik Haberer DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| Aljoscha Kemlein MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Diogo Leite DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Oliver Burke AMC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Stanley N'Soki DML | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong AMC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andras Schafer Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Ilyas Ansah Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| Derrick Köhn Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 |
| Livan Burcu Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alex Kral Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |