Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 23 February 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 14
On target
2 – 7
Shots in box
6 – 12
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.26
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.29 – -2.70
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hoffenheim win
34.7%
Draw
28.5%
VfB Stuttgart win
36.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDWWDWLLL last 10
scored 15
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 19.0 xG
VfB Stuttgart have scored 25 from 23.3 expected and conceded 21 from 22.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLDDWDLW last 10
scored 25
from 23.3 xG
conceded 21
from 22.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.50–1.55 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hoffenheim 0.71 xGVfB Stuttgart 3.70 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hoffenheim attacking right
VfB Stuttgart attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Nick Woltemade | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 13' |
 Hoffenheim |
Marius Bülter | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrej Kramaric |
| 29' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Angelo Stiller | 0.24 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 29' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Atakan Karazor | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 29' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Nick Woltemade | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jamie Leweling |
| 41' |
Hoffenheim |
Marius Bülter | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gift Orban |
| 45' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tom Bischof |
| 51' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leonidas Stergiou |
| 58' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Angelo Stiller | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 64' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Finn Becker |
| 65' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Atakan Karazor |
| 69' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Nick Woltemade | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 70' |
Hoffenheim |
Marius Bülter | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Anton Stach |
| 71' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nick Woltemade |
| 71' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Nick Woltemade | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 73' |
Hoffenheim |
Gift Orban | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Andrej Kramaric |
| 78' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 78' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nick Woltemade |
| 86' |
Hoffenheim |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Angelo Stiller | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nick Woltemade |
| 92' |
Hoffenheim |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bazoumana Touré |
| 93' |
Hoffenheim |
Stanley N'Soki | 0.05 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Anton Stach |
Players
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Woltemade FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1.80 | 0.87 | 2.73 |
| Angelo Stiller DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.72 | 0.38 | 2.57 |
| Chris Führich AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 1.84 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.93 | 2.02 |
| Leonidas Stergiou DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.54 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.46 |
| Finn Jeltsch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.97 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Deniz Undav FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.84 | 0.60 | 1.86 |
| Atakan Karazor DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 1.69 |
| Jamie Leweling AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.49 | 1.32 |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ermedin Demirovic Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Enzo Millot Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanley N'Soki DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Andrej Kramaric FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| Kevin Akpoguma DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Finn Becker MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Anton Stach MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| Tom Bischof MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| Arthur Chaves DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Philipp GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Gift Orban FW | 85 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.01 | 0.48 |
| Marius Bülter DL | 78 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Alexander Prass DR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Haris Tabakovic Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| David Jurásek Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Bazoumana Touré Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |