Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 2 May 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 14
On target
9 – 5
Shots in box
13 – 10
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.21 – 0.25
Goals − xG
+0.28 – +0.95
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hoffenheim win
44.1%
Draw
22.3%
VfB Stuttgart win
33.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDWWDWLLL last 10
scored 15
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 19.0 xG
VfB Stuttgart have scored 25 from 23.3 expected and conceded 21 from 22.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLDDWDLW last 10
scored 25
from 23.3 xG
conceded 21
from 22.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.84–1.59 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.92–1.69 | 1-1 9% | 70% | 70% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hoffenheim 2.72 xGVfB Stuttgart 2.05 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hoffenheim attacking right
VfB Stuttgart attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Leon Avdullahu |
| 7' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Fisnik Asllani |
| 8' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 14' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 19' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ramon Hendriks |
| 22' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Fisnik Asllani |
| 22' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 24' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jamie Leweling |
| 32' |
Hoffenheim |
Ozan Kabak | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Leon Avdullahu |
| 38' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bernardo |
| 38' |
Hoffenheim |
Bernardo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Hoffenheim |
Tim Lemperle | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 41' |
Hoffenheim |
Wouter Burger | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 44' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 48' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bazoumana Touré |
| 51' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 53' |
Hoffenheim |
Tim Lemperle | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Bazoumana Touré |
| 56' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 57' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Chris Führich |
| 60' |
Hoffenheim |
Vladimir Coufal | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 61' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tim Lemperle |
| 61' |
Hoffenheim |
Leon Avdullahu | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 63' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jamie Leweling |
| 71' |
Hoffenheim |
Albian Hajdari | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 74' |
Hoffenheim |
Tim Lemperle | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 74' |
Hoffenheim |
Wouter Burger | 0.54 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 76' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 77' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Angelo Stiller | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lorenz Assignon |
| 78' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Leon Avdullahu |
| 87' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Andrej Kramaric |
| 91' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ermedin Demirovic |
| 92' |
Hoffenheim |
Max Moerstedt | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bazoumana Touré |
| 93' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.22 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Chris Führich |
| 94' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Angelo Stiller | 0.46 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 94' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.64 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
Players
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angelo Stiller DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.04 | 0.58 |
| Chris Führich AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.25 | 0.56 |
| Deniz Undav FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.51 | 0.95 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ramon Hendriks DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.67 |
| Luca Jaquez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Jamie Leweling AMR | 89 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| Bilal El Khannouss AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| Atakan Karazor DMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Joshua Vagnoman DR | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Ermedin Demirovic Sub | 32 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.06 | 0.40 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.51 |
| Lorenz Assignon Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.47 |
| Tiago Tomás Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrej Kramaric AMR | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.88 | 0.14 | 1.41 |
| Wouter Burger DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.59 | 0.21 | 1.36 |
| Bazoumana Touré AML | 90 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0.30 | 0.80 | 1.21 |
| Fisnik Asllani AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.43 | 1.23 |
| Ozan Kabak DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Albian Hajdari DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.94 |
| Vladimir Coufal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| Bernardo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.64 |
| Leon Avdullahu DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.19 | 0.66 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Tim Lemperle FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.49 | 0.05 | 0.60 |
| Max Moerstedt Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Muhammed Damar Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Akpoguma Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexander Prass Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |