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Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated

2–1
2.96 – 2.67 xG
Shots
20 – 16
On target
8 – 5
Shots in box
12 – 13
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.63
Goals − xG
-0.96 – -1.67

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Hoffenheim win
38.1%
model 38.4%
Draw
23.9%
model 21.8%
VfB Stuttgart win
38.1%
model 39.8%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (7,703 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 8.7%
  2. 1-2 8.0%
  3. 2-1 7.8%
  4. 2-2 7.2%
  5. 1-3 4.9%

Goals

Over 2.570.5% Under 2.529.5%
BTTS yes70.3% BTTS no29.7%
Hoffenheim 1+83.5% Hoffenheim 2+53.8%
VfB Stuttgart 1+84.1% VfB Stuttgart 2+54.9%

Expected goals 1.80 – 1.84. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
88/100
Data quality
85/100
Model agreement
95%
★ Best pick
VfB Stuttgart over 1.5 goals
Away goals O/U · usually 43%
53.0% fair odds 1.89
strong signal · 7117 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Over 0.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT · usually 77%
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 583 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • VfB Stuttgart carry the stronger rating, 1682 Elo against 1540.
  • Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
  • Away from home VfB Stuttgart average 1.99 xG a match.
  • Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Hoffenheim were missing 1.09 expected goal involvements a match against 0.72.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

VfB Stuttgart have an estimated 38.1% win probability, against 38.1% for Hoffenheim and 23.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.80 for Hoffenheim and 1.84 for VfB Stuttgart.

Why Hoffenheim

At home Hoffenheim average 1.97 xG a match. They have had 7 days' rest to VfB Stuttgart's 3.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.9%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.80 to 1.84. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why VfB Stuttgart can win

VfB Stuttgart carry the stronger rating, 1682 Elo against 1540. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home VfB Stuttgart average 1.99 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Hoffenheim were missing 1.09 expected goal involvements a match against 0.72.

Key players

Hoffenheim's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Tim Lemperle (0.40), Andrej Kramaric (0.39), Fisnik Asllani (0.36). VfB Stuttgart's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Deniz Undav (0.63), Dzenan Pejcinovic (0.41), Ermedin Demirovic (0.40).

Availability

2 of Hoffenheim's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Hoffenheim's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of VfB Stuttgart's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of VfB Stuttgart's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Hoffenheim: 59% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 14.5 faced, 0.32 xG a match from set pieces. VfB Stuttgart: 51% possession, 16.8 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.49 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-12 15:20 · team_stats 2026-09-12 06:04 · availability 2026-09-12 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·

VfB Stuttgart are the model's most likely outcome at 38.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 8.7%. Confidence 88/100, data quality 85/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

WDWLLLWLLW last 10 scored 17 from 20.0 xG conceded 22 from 16.2 xG

VfB Stuttgart are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DWDLWLLWLL last 10 scored 18 from 22.3 xG conceded 19 from 24.7 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
ai-blend 1.83–1.68 0% 0% 0% Home ✓
dc-xg 1.85–1.67 1-1 9% 68% 68% Home ✓
dc-xg-oos 1.79–1.63 1-1 10% 67% 67% Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim to win 47.1% 47.6% 41.6% 1.14× 2.10
VfB Stuttgart to win 31.6% 30.6% 33.7% 0.91× 3.27
Draw 21.3% 24.6% 24.8% 0.99× 4.07
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim & both teams score 30.3% 29.2% 22.2% 1.32× 3.42
VfB Stuttgart & both teams score 21.0% 21.8% 18.4% 1.19× 4.60
Draw & both teams score 18.8% 18.0% 19.1% 0.94× 5.55
Hoffenheim & not both score 16.8% 18.0% 19.6% 0.92× 5.55
VfB Stuttgart & not both score 10.6% 13.2% 15.5% 0.85× 7.55
Draw & not both score 2.5% 4.9% 5.9% 0.84× 20.39
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim & over 1.5 41.9% 40.0% 35.4% 1.13× 2.50
Hoffenheim & over 2.5 36.7% 34.7% 29.4% 1.18× 2.89
VfB Stuttgart & over 1.5 27.4% 25.9% 27.8% 0.93× 3.85
Hoffenheim & over 3.5 24.5% 21.6% 20.3% 1.07× 4.63
VfB Stuttgart & over 2.5 24.0% 21.6% 23.6% 0.92× 4.63
Hoffenheim & under 3.5 22.6% 21.6% 21.5% 1.00× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 18.8% 18.0% 19.1% 0.94× 5.57
VfB Stuttgart & under 3.5 16.4% 18.0% 19.8% 0.91× 5.57
VfB Stuttgart & over 3.5 15.1% 18.0% 14.1% 1.28× 5.57
Hoffenheim & under 2.5 10.4% 12.9% 12.3% 1.04× 7.78
Draw & over 2.5 10.3% 12.9% 9.5% 1.35× 7.78
Draw & under 2.5 11.0% 12.9% 15.5% 0.83× 7.78
Draw & over 3.5 10.3% 12.9% 9.5% 1.35× 7.78
Draw & under 3.5 11.0% 12.9% 15.5% 0.83× 7.78
VfB Stuttgart & under 2.5 7.6% 8.0% 10.3% 0.77× 12.57
Hoffenheim & under 1.5 5.2% 8.0% 6.3% 1.26× 12.57
VfB Stuttgart & under 1.5 4.2% 4.9% 6.0% 0.81× 20.58
Draw & under 1.5 2.5% 4.9% 5.9% 0.83× 20.59
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim (1UP) 66.0% 69.8% 59.6% 1.17× 1.43
VfB Stuttgart (1UP) 53.4% 52.8% 52.9% 1.00× 1.89
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim (2UP) 47.1% 49.9% 45.0% 1.11× 2.01
VfB Stuttgart (2UP) 31.6% 30.8% 36.6% 0.84× 3.25
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfB Stuttgart to win 2nd half 34.3% 34.5% 29.6% 1.16× 2.90
Hoffenheim to win 2nd half 34.1% 34.5% 37.1% 0.93× 2.90
2nd half drawn 31.6% 34.5% 33.4% 1.03× 2.90
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfB Stuttgart under 1.5 in 2nd half 74.9% 75.4% 79.2% 0.95× 1.33
VfB Stuttgart over 0.5 in 2nd half 61.8% 59.0% 56.6% 1.04× 1.70
VfB Stuttgart under 0.5 in 2nd half 38.2% 41.0% 43.4% 0.94× 2.44
VfB Stuttgart over 1.5 in 2nd half 25.1% 24.6% 20.8% 1.18× 4.07
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim under 1.5 in 2nd half 75.1% 75.6% 74.8% 1.01× 1.32
Hoffenheim over 0.5 in 2nd half 61.6% 62.5% 62.1% 1.01× 1.60
Hoffenheim under 0.5 in 2nd half 38.4% 37.5% 37.9% 0.99× 2.67
Hoffenheim over 1.5 in 2nd half 24.9% 24.4% 25.2% 0.97× 4.10
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfB Stuttgart (+2.5) 87.1% 88.3% 88.3% 1.00× 1.13
VfB Stuttgart (+1.5) 73.0% 73.7% 75.3% 0.98× 1.36
Hoffenheim (+0.5) 68.4% 68.7% 66.3% 1.04× 1.46
VfB Stuttgart (+0.5) 52.9% 52.1% 58.4% 0.89× 1.92
Hoffenheim (-0.5) 47.1% 47.9% 41.6% 1.15× 2.09
VfB Stuttgart (-0.5) 31.6% 31.3% 33.7% 0.93× 3.20
Hoffenheim (-1.5) 27.0% 26.3% 24.7% 1.07× 3.80
Hoffenheim (-2.5) 12.9% 11.7% 11.7% 1.00× 8.58
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfB Stuttgart to concede 86.9% 86.2% 78.8% 1.09× 1.16
VfB Stuttgart clean sheet 13.1% 13.8% 21.2% 0.65× 7.27
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfB Stuttgart to concede in 1st half 65.8% 69.1% 51.8% 1.33× 1.45
VfB Stuttgart clean sheet in 1st half 34.2% 30.9% 48.2% 0.64× 3.24
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfB Stuttgart to concede in 2nd half 61.6% 60.2% 62.1% 0.97× 1.66
VfB Stuttgart clean sheet in 2nd half 38.4% 39.8% 37.9% 1.05× 2.51
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfB Stuttgart under 3.5 goals 91.6% 92.2% 92.6% 1.00× 1.09
VfB Stuttgart over 0.5 goals 80.6% 81.2% 74.7% 1.09× 1.23
VfB Stuttgart under 2.5 goals 77.3% 76.1% 79.0% 0.96× 1.31
VfB Stuttgart under 1.5 goals 51.2% 53.5% 57.1% 0.94× 1.87
VfB Stuttgart over 1.5 goals 48.8% 46.5% 42.9% 1.08× 2.15
VfB Stuttgart over 2.5 goals 22.7% 23.9% 21.0% 1.13× 4.19
VfB Stuttgart under 0.5 goals 19.4% 18.8% 25.3% 0.74× 5.33
VfB Stuttgart over 3.5 goals 8.4% 7.8% 7.4% 1.05× 12.81
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfB Stuttgart under 1.5 in 1st half 85.2% 88.9% 85.7% 1.04× 1.13
VfB Stuttgart under 0.5 in 1st half 50.8% 55.6% 54.4% 1.02× 1.80
VfB Stuttgart over 0.5 in 1st half 49.2% 44.4% 45.6% 0.97× 2.25
VfB Stuttgart over 1.5 in 1st half 14.8% 11.1% 14.3% 0.78× 8.97
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfB Stuttgart scores more in 2nd half 41.0% 43.8% 36.9% 1.19× 2.29
VfB Stuttgart scores equally in both 34.3% 34.2% 38.8% 0.88× 2.93
VfB Stuttgart scores more in 1st half 24.8% 22.5% 24.4% 0.92× 4.45
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim (away no bet) 68.8% 66.6% 62.6% 1.06× 1.50
Draw (away no bet) 31.2% 33.4% 37.4% 0.89× 2.99
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfB Stuttgart even goals 51.9% 52.8% 53.2% 0.99× 1.90
VfB Stuttgart odd goals 48.1% 47.2% 46.8% 1.01× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 70.1% 76.8% 75.8% 1.01× 1.30
Both halves over 1.5 goals 29.9% 23.2% 24.2% 0.96× 4.32
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 79.5% 72.8% 72.3% 1.01× 1.37
Both halves under 1.5 goals 20.5% 27.2% 27.7% 0.98× 3.68
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 70.9% 71.8% 66.9% 1.07× 1.39
Hoffenheim to score 2+ in a row 48.3% 45.9% 42.3% 1.09× 2.18
VfB Stuttgart to score 2+ in a row 35.7% 36.4% 34.7% 1.05× 2.74
Either team to score 3+ in a row 30.9% 29.0% 29.5% 0.98× 3.45
Hoffenheim to score 3+ in a row 20.1% 19.4% 17.6% 1.10× 5.15
VfB Stuttgart to score 3+ in a row 11.7% 12.1% 12.8% 0.94× 8.25
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 8.5% 7.4% 9.8% 0.75× 13.53
2-1 8.6% 7.4% 6.8% 1.09× 13.53
1-2 7.0% 7.4% 6.8% 1.09× 13.53
2-2 7.1% 7.4% 6.3% 1.17× 13.53
Any other score 8.0% 7.4% 5.4% 1.37× 13.53
1-0 5.2% 7.4% 6.3% 1.17× 13.53
2-0 5.2% 7.4% 6.2% 1.20× 13.53
3-1 5.8% 7.4% 6.2% 1.20× 13.53
0-0 2.5% 1.7% 5.9% 0.30× 57.67
0-1 4.2% 1.7% 6.0% 0.29× 57.66
0-2 3.4% 1.7% 4.4% 0.39× 57.66
0-3 1.9% 1.7% 3.0% 0.58× 57.67
0-4 0.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.10× 57.68
1-3 3.8% 1.7% 4.6% 0.38× 57.66
1-4 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 57.67
2-3 3.9% 1.7% 2.7% 0.64× 57.66
2-4 1.6% 1.7% 1.1% 1.57× 57.67
3-0 3.6% 1.7% 2.7% 0.64× 57.66
3-2 4.8% 1.7% 3.5% 0.50× 57.66
3-3 2.6% 1.7% 3.0% 0.58× 57.67
3-4 1.1% 1.7% 1.4% 1.22× 57.67
4-0 1.8% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 57.67
4-1 3.0% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 57.66
4-2 2.4% 1.7% 1.1% 1.57× 57.67
4-3 1.3% 1.7% 0.9% 1.83× 57.67
4-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.5% 3.65× 57.68
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfB Stuttgart (2nd half DNB) 50.2% 52.9% 44.4% 1.19× 1.89
Hoffenheim (2nd half DNB) 49.8% 47.1% 55.6% 0.85× 2.12
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim leading at HT (DNB) 66.0% 73.2% 55.5% 1.32× 1.37
VfB Stuttgart leading at HT (DNB) 34.0% 26.8% 44.5% 0.60× 3.73
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim or VfB Stuttgart (12) 78.7% 75.4% 75.2% 1.00× 1.33
Hoffenheim or draw (1X) 68.4% 69.4% 66.3% 1.05× 1.44
VfB Stuttgart or draw (X2) 52.9% 52.4% 58.4% 0.90× 1.91
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim or draw at HT 77.1% 80.0% 70.7% 1.13× 1.25
Hoffenheim or VfB Stuttgart at HT 67.5% 66.3% 65.8% 1.01× 1.51
VfB Stuttgart or draw at HT 55.4% 56.9% 63.4% 0.90× 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim or draw (1UP) 68.4% 76.1% 73.5% 1.03× 1.32
VfB Stuttgart or draw (1UP) 53.4% 59.2% 65.1% 0.91× 1.69
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim or VfB Stuttgart in 2nd half 68.4% 65.5% 66.6% 0.98× 1.53
VfB Stuttgart or draw in 2nd half 65.9% 65.5% 62.9% 1.04× 1.53
Hoffenheim or draw in 2nd half 65.7% 65.5% 70.4% 0.93× 1.53
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 53.8% 50.0% 53.7% 0.93× 2.00
Neither half drawn 46.2% 50.0% 46.3% 1.08× 2.00
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim (DNB) 59.9% 58.4% 55.3% 1.06× 1.71
VfB Stuttgart (DNB) 40.1% 41.6% 44.7% 0.93× 2.40
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim to score first 53.9% 53.9% 50.7% 1.06× 1.86
VfB Stuttgart to score first 43.6% 41.9% 43.6% 0.96× 2.39
No goal scored 2.5% 4.2% 5.9% 0.72× 23.54
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 70.0% 62.7% 59.3% 1.06× 1.59
Not both teams to score 30.0% 37.3% 40.7% 0.92× 2.68
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 61.5% 50.1% 49.7% 1.01× 2.00
Not both score & under 2.5 20.6% 28.4% 28.2% 1.01× 3.53
Not both score & over 2.5 9.4% 8.4% 12.7% 0.66× 11.93
Both score & under 2.5 8.5% 8.4% 9.8% 0.85× 11.94
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 70.6% 79.9% 79.7% 1.00× 1.25
Both teams to score 2+ 29.4% 20.1% 20.3% 0.99× 4.97
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 61.9% 65.9% 65.6% 1.00× 1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half 38.1% 34.1% 34.4% 0.99× 2.93
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 41.9% 49.9% 51.7% 0.97× 2.00
Both score 2nd half only 25.8% 26.6% 27.7% 0.96× 3.77
Both score 1st half only 20.0% 20.8% 14.1% 1.47× 4.82
Both score in both halves 12.3% 10.7% 6.8% 1.57× 9.33
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 67.7% 69.9% 79.2% 0.88× 1.43
Both teams to score by HT 32.3% 30.1% 20.8% 1.45× 3.33
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 70.5% 72.5% 66.9% 1.08× 1.38
A half without a goal 29.5% 27.5% 33.1% 0.83× 3.63
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
4-6 goals 42.1% 41.9% 39.9% 1.05× 2.39
2-3 goals 38.1% 35.0% 38.8% 0.90× 2.86
0-1 goals 11.9% 17.1% 17.9% 0.96× 5.84
7+ goals 7.9% 7.6% 3.8% 2.01× 13.10
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfB Stuttgart to score exactly 1 31.8% 33.7% 32.0% 1.05× 2.97
VfB Stuttgart to score exactly 2 26.1% 27.6% 22.0% 1.25× 3.62
VfB Stuttgart to score 3+ 22.7% 22.5% 21.0% 1.07× 4.45
VfB Stuttgart to score exactly 0 19.4% 19.5% 25.3% 0.77× 5.12
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim to score 3+ 33.1% 32.6% 27.4% 1.19× 3.06
Hoffenheim to score exactly 2 27.1% 26.2% 22.6% 1.16× 3.82
Hoffenheim to score exactly 1 26.7% 26.2% 29.1% 0.90× 3.82
Hoffenheim to score exactly 0 13.1% 14.3% 21.2% 0.67× 6.99
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim leading at HT 44.6% 43.1% 36.6% 1.18× 2.32
Draw at HT 32.5% 33.7% 34.2% 0.98× 2.97
VfB Stuttgart leading at HT 22.9% 20.0% 29.3% 0.68× 4.99
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim -1: 2 52.9% 51.9% — — 1.93
Hoffenheim -1: 1 27.0% 26.6% — — 3.76
Hoffenheim -1: X 20.1% 23.6% — — 4.23
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfB Stuttgart (0:1) 52.9% 51.3% 58.4% 0.88× 1.95
Hoffenheim (0:1) 27.0% 27.1% 24.7% 1.10× 3.69
Draw (0:1) 20.1% 24.4% 17.1% 1.43× 4.10
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfB Stuttgart (0:2) 73.0% 75.9% 75.3% 1.01× 1.32
Draw (0:2) 14.1% 10.8% 13.1% 0.83× 9.22
Hoffenheim (0:2) 12.9% 10.8% 11.7% 0.93× 9.22
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfB Stuttgart (0:3) 87.1% 90.5% 88.3% 1.02× 1.11
Draw (0:3) 7.7% 5.9% 5.1% 1.17× 16.92
Hoffenheim (0:3) 5.2% 5.9% 6.8% 0.87× 16.96
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfB Stuttgart (0:4) 94.8% 94.5% 93.2% 1.01× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 3.4% 1.2% 5.2% 0.24× 81.48
Hoffenheim (0:4) 1.8% 1.2% 1.7% 0.70× 81.64
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim (1:0) 68.4% 69.5% 66.3% 1.05× 1.44
Draw (1:0) 16.3% 17.1% 16.5% 1.04× 5.86
VfB Stuttgart (1:0) 15.3% 17.1% 17.4% 0.98× 5.86
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim (2:0) 84.7% 84.6% 82.6% 1.02× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 9.2% 6.6% 10.0% 0.66× 15.24
VfB Stuttgart (2:0) 6.1% 6.5% 7.6% 0.86× 15.28
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 42.6% 48.3% 46.9% 1.03× 2.07
1st half highest scoring 35.7% 35.7% 26.3% 1.36× 2.80
Halves equal 21.6% 24.1% 26.9% 0.89× 4.16
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim to concede 80.6% 80.8% 74.7% 1.08× 1.24
Hoffenheim clean sheet 19.4% 19.2% 25.3% 0.76× 5.21
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim clean sheet in 1st half 50.8% 55.6% 54.4% 1.02× 1.80
Hoffenheim to concede in 1st half 49.2% 44.4% 45.6% 0.97× 2.25
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim to concede in 2nd half 61.8% 58.8% 56.6% 1.04× 1.70
Hoffenheim clean sheet in 2nd half 38.2% 41.2% 43.4% 0.95× 2.43
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim over 0.5 goals 86.9% 87.2% 78.8% 1.11× 1.15
Hoffenheim under 3.5 goals 85.2% 87.2% 88.6% 0.98× 1.15
Hoffenheim under 2.5 goals 66.9% 67.9% 72.6% 0.93× 1.47
Hoffenheim over 1.5 goals 60.2% 63.3% 49.8% 1.27× 1.58
Hoffenheim under 1.5 goals 39.8% 36.7% 50.2% 0.73× 2.72
Hoffenheim over 2.5 goals 33.1% 32.1% 27.4% 1.17× 3.11
Hoffenheim over 3.5 goals 14.8% 12.8% 11.4% 1.12× 7.81
Hoffenheim under 0.5 goals 13.1% 12.8% 21.2% 0.60× 7.82
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim under 1.5 in 1st half 70.9% 79.7% 80.8% 0.99× 1.26
Hoffenheim over 0.5 in 1st half 65.8% 67.9% 51.8% 1.31× 1.47
Hoffenheim under 0.5 in 1st half 34.2% 32.1% 48.2% 0.67× 3.11
Hoffenheim over 1.5 in 1st half 29.1% 20.3% 19.2% 1.06× 4.92
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim scores more in 1st half 37.7% 37.7% 25.7% 1.47× 2.66
Hoffenheim scores more in 2nd half 31.8% 32.8% 37.7% 0.87× 3.05
Hoffenheim scores equally in both 30.5% 32.8% 36.8% 0.89× 3.05
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfB Stuttgart (home no bet) 59.7% 56.1% 57.6% 0.97× 1.78
Draw (home no bet) 40.3% 43.9% 42.4% 1.03× 2.28
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim even goals 50.9% 50.4% 52.5% 0.96× 1.98
Hoffenheim odd goals 49.1% 49.6% 47.5% 1.05× 2.02
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 1-0 18.7% 18.7% 19.3% 0.97× 5.36
HT 0-0 17.4% 18.6% 23.3% 0.80× 5.36
HT 1-1 12.6% 10.9% 9.8% 1.11× 9.15
Any other HT score 12.2% 10.9% 6.7% 1.64× 9.15
HT 0-1 11.8% 10.9% 16.5% 0.66× 9.16
HT 2-0 10.0% 7.2% 9.5% 0.75× 13.98
HT 2-1 6.8% 7.1% 4.3% 1.67× 14.03
HT 1-2 4.3% 2.3% 3.5% 0.66× 43.39
HT 0-2 4.0% 2.3% 7.1% 0.32× 43.41
HT 2-2 2.3% 2.3% 1.3% 1.81× 43.54
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim at HT / Hoffenheim at FT 33.8% 32.9% 28.1% 1.17× 3.04
VfB Stuttgart at HT / VfB Stuttgart at FT 16.6% 16.8% 20.3% 0.83× 5.97
Draw at HT / VfB Stuttgart at FT 11.2% 12.7% 10.0% 1.27× 7.90
Draw at HT / Hoffenheim at FT 11.1% 12.7% 10.6% 1.19× 7.91
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 10.3% 12.6% 13.9% 0.91× 7.91
Hoffenheim at HT / Draw at FT 7.0% 6.0% 5.1% 1.18× 16.68
VfB Stuttgart at HT / Draw at FT 4.1% 3.5% 6.0% 0.58× 28.76
Hoffenheim at HT / VfB Stuttgart at FT 3.8% 3.5% 3.8% 0.91× 28.77
VfB Stuttgart at HT / Hoffenheim at FT 2.3% 3.5% 3.3% 1.04× 28.83
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim to score last 53.9% 52.1% 49.8% 1.05× 1.92
VfB Stuttgart to score last 43.6% 40.1% 44.5% 0.90× 2.49
No goal scored 2.5% 4.2% 5.9% 0.72× 23.54
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 97.5% 95.7% 94.1% 1.02× 1.05
Hoffenheim to lead by 1 at any time 66.0% 69.4% 59.6% 1.16× 1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 59.3% 55.1% 55.9% 0.99× 1.81
VfB Stuttgart to lead by 1 at any time 53.4% 50.8% 52.9% 0.96× 1.97
Hoffenheim to lead by 2 at any time 36.3% 34.8% 33.1% 1.05× 2.87
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 25.5% 25.4% 25.7% 0.99× 3.93
VfB Stuttgart to lead by 2 at any time 23.7% 19.6% 23.6% 0.83× 5.10
Hoffenheim to lead by 3 at any time 16.7% 14.9% 15.5% 0.96× 6.73
VfB Stuttgart to lead by 3 at any time 8.8% 6.7% 10.3% 0.65× 15.03
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 80.9% 83.3% 83.2% 1.00× 1.20
2-6 goals 80.2% 83.3% 78.5% 1.06× 1.20
2-5 goals 71.6% 72.3% 71.2% 1.02× 1.38
1-4 goals 66.8% 68.8% 72.3% 0.95× 1.45
3-6 goals 63.0% 63.2% 58.5% 1.08× 1.58
2-4 goals 57.4% 59.3% 60.3% 0.98× 1.69
3-5 goals 54.4% 53.4% 51.3% 1.04× 1.87
1-3 goals 47.5% 48.5% 50.8% 0.95× 2.06
4-6 goals 42.1% 43.6% 39.9% 1.09× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.3% 43.6% 40.3% 1.08× 2.30
2-3 goals 38.1% 39.3% 38.8% 1.01× 2.55
4-5 goals 33.4% 35.3% 32.6% 1.08× 2.83
1-2 goals 26.5% 30.6% 32.1% 0.95× 3.27
5-6 goals 22.8% 24.8% 18.4% 1.35× 4.04
7+ goals 7.9% 9.0% 3.8% 2.36× 11.15
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim never behind 44.1% 48.3% 47.1% 1.03× 2.07
VfB Stuttgart never behind 31.4% 35.5% 40.4% 0.88× 2.82
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 50.0% 51.0% 44.8% 1.14× 1.96
Even number of goals 50.0% 49.0% 55.2% 0.89× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 51.5% 51.6% 52.6% 0.98× 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 48.5% 48.4% 47.4% 1.02× 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.1% 52.0% 52.9% 0.98× 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.9% 48.0% 47.1% 1.02× 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 97.5% 95.4% 94.1% 1.01× 1.05
Over 1.5 goals 88.1% 87.5% 82.1% 1.06× 1.14
Under 5.5 goals 83.4% 82.2% 88.9% 0.92× 1.22
Over 2.5 goals 70.9% 72.4% 62.2% 1.16× 1.38
Under 4.5 goals 69.3% 66.0% 78.0% 0.85× 1.52
Under 3.5 goals 50.0% 53.0% 56.5% 0.94× 1.89
Over 3.5 goals 50.0% 47.0% 43.5% 1.08× 2.13
Over 4.5 goals 30.7% 34.0% 22.0% 1.55× 2.94
Under 2.5 goals 29.1% 27.6% 37.8% 0.73× 3.62
Over 5.5 goals 16.6% 17.8% 11.1% 1.61× 5.61
Under 1.5 goals 11.9% 12.5% 17.9% 0.70× 7.97
Under 0.5 goals 2.5% 4.6% 5.9% 0.78× 21.77
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 91.4% 92.4% 95.9% 0.96× 1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 85.6% 86.6% 77.7% 1.12× 1.16
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 80.7% 80.5% 87.6% 0.92× 1.24
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 63.2% 61.6% 53.5% 1.15× 1.62
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 62.0% 61.6% 72.0% 0.86× 1.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 38.0% 38.4% 28.0% 1.37× 2.61
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 36.8% 38.4% 46.5% 0.83× 2.61
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 19.3% 19.5% 12.4% 1.57× 5.12
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 14.4% 13.4% 22.3% 0.60× 7.47
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 8.6% 7.6% 4.1% 1.86× 13.14
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half 82.6% 86.3% 76.7% 1.12× 1.16
Under 2.5 in 1st half 74.4% 71.3% 84.8% 0.84× 1.40
Over 1.5 in 1st half 52.2% 56.5% 41.2% 1.37× 1.77
Under 1.5 in 1st half 47.8% 43.5% 58.8% 0.74× 2.30
Over 2.5 in 1st half 25.6% 28.7% 15.2% 1.89× 3.48
Under 0.5 in 1st half 17.4% 13.7% 23.3% 0.59× 7.28
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 85.4% 85.3% 84.3% 1.01× 1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 69.8% 67.7% 73.4% 0.92× 1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 57.2% 54.7% 55.3% 0.99× 1.83
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 42.8% 45.3% 44.7% 1.01× 2.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 30.2% 32.3% 26.6% 1.21× 3.09
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 14.6% 14.7% 15.7% 0.94× 6.80
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfB Stuttgart not to score in both halves 69.6% 70.6% 72.4% 0.98× 1.42
Hoffenheim not to score in both halves 59.5% 57.8% 64.8% 0.89× 1.73
Hoffenheim to score in both halves 40.5% 42.2% 35.2% 1.20× 2.37
VfB Stuttgart to score in both halves 30.4% 29.4% 27.6% 1.07× 3.40
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 70.0% 66.1% 59.3% 1.11× 1.51
Only Hoffenheim scores 16.8% 16.0% 19.6% 0.82× 6.25
Only VfB Stuttgart scores 10.6% 11.1% 15.5% 0.71× 9.02
Neither team scores 2.5% 4.6% 5.9% 0.79× 21.66
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 21.0% 22.4% 18.8% 1.19× 4.46
Exactly 4 goals 19.3% 17.6% 21.7% 0.81× 5.70
Exactly 2 goals 17.2% 17.5% 20.1% 0.87× 5.70
6 or more goals 16.6% 17.5% 11.1% 1.58× 5.70
Exactly 5 goals 14.1% 12.1% 11.1% 1.09× 8.30
Exactly 1 goals 9.3% 7.8% 12.2% 0.64× 12.85
Exactly 0 goals 2.5% 4.5% 5.9% 0.77× 22.25
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 30.4% 35.8% 35.7% 1.00× 2.79
2 goals in 1st half 26.6% 28.5% 26.1% 1.09× 3.51
3+ goals in 1st half 25.6% 28.5% 15.2% 1.87× 3.51
No goals in 1st half 17.4% 15.2% 23.3% 0.65× 6.56
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 57.2% 53.4% 55.3% 0.96× 1.87
1 goal in 2nd half 28.1% 29.8% 29.2% 1.02× 3.36
No goals in 2nd half 14.6% 14.6% 15.7% 0.93× 6.87
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfB Stuttgart not to win both halves 92.1% 94.0% 90.5% 1.04× 1.06
Hoffenheim not to win both halves 84.8% 84.3% 84.2% 1.00× 1.19
Hoffenheim to win both halves 15.2% 15.7% 15.8% 0.99× 6.39
VfB Stuttgart to win both halves 7.9% 6.0% 9.5% 0.64× 16.56
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hoffenheim to win either half 63.4% 65.1% 57.8% 1.12× 1.54
VfB Stuttgart to win neither half 50.6% 54.8% 50.6% 1.08× 1.83
VfB Stuttgart to win either half 49.4% 45.2% 49.4% 0.91× 2.21
Hoffenheim to win neither half 36.6% 34.9% 42.2% 0.83× 2.86
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfB Stuttgart not to win to nil 89.4% 87.9% 84.5% 1.04× 1.14
Hoffenheim not to win to nil 83.2% 83.2% 80.4% 1.03× 1.20
Hoffenheim to win to nil 16.8% 16.8% 19.6% 0.86× 5.94
VfB Stuttgart to win to nil 10.6% 12.1% 15.5% 0.78× 8.30
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 21.3% 24.2% 24.8% 0.97× 4.14
Hoffenheim by 1 20.1% 24.2% 17.1% 1.41× 4.14
VfB Stuttgart by 1 16.3% 16.9% 16.5% 1.03× 5.92
Hoffenheim by 2 14.1% 11.7% 13.1% 0.89× 8.53
Hoffenheim by 3+ 12.9% 11.7% 11.7% 1.00× 8.53
VfB Stuttgart by 2 9.2% 7.3% 10.0% 0.73× 13.76
VfB Stuttgart by 3+ 6.1% 7.3% 7.6% 0.96× 13.77
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.81.72.53.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Adam Hlozek 12' — goalMaximilian Mittelstädt 47' — goalAdam Hlozek 66' — goal
Hoffenheim 2.96 xGVfB Stuttgart 2.67 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Adam Hlozek 3' — Missed Shot (0.36 xG, Open Play)Ermedin Demirovic 7' — Saved Shot (0.47 xG, Open Play)Mats Rots 10' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Adam Hlozek 12' — Goal (0.32 xG, Open Play)Grischa Prömel 17' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Ermedin Demirovic 20' — Saved Shot (0.32 xG, Open Play)Ermedin Demirovic 22' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Adam Hlozek 37' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Adam Hlozek 38' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Tim Lemperle 39' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Grischa Prömel 41' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Wouter Burger 43' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Maximilian Mittelstädt 47' — Goal (0.38 xG, Open Play)Ermedin Demirovic 51' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Finn Jeltsch 51' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Tim Lemperle 56' — Saved Shot (0.21 xG, Open Play)Wouter Burger 56' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Mats Rots 58' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Dzenan Pejcinovic 61' — Saved Shot (0.58 xG, Open Play)Adam Hlozek 63' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Ozan Kabak 65' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Adam Hlozek 66' — Goal (0.37 xG, Open Play)Tim Lemperle 70' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Adam Hlozek 73' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Patrick Wimmer 73' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Patrick Wimmer 76' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Finn Jeltsch 77' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Finn Jeltsch 81' — Missed Shot (0.31 xG, From Corner)Adam Daghim 85' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Julian Chabot 85' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Bilal El Khannouss 88' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Finn Jeltsch 88' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Fisnik Asllani 90' — Saved Shot (0.46 xG, Open Play)Patrick Wimmer 93' — Saved Shot (0.44 xG, Open Play)Grischa Prömel 94' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Julian Chabot 94' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)
Hoffenheim attacking right VfB Stuttgart attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Hoffenheim Adam Hlozek 0.36 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Adam Daghim
7' VfB Stuttgart Ermedin Demirovic 0.47 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
10' Hoffenheim Mats Rots 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Tim Lemperle
12' Hoffenheim Adam Hlozek 0.32 Open Play Right Foot Goal Bambasé Conté
17' VfB Stuttgart Grischa Prömel 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Dzenan Pejcinovic
20' VfB Stuttgart Ermedin Demirovic 0.32 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Maximilian Mittelstädt
22' VfB Stuttgart Ermedin Demirovic 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Joshua Vagnoman
37' Hoffenheim Adam Hlozek 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Adam Daghim
38' Hoffenheim Adam Hlozek 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
39' Hoffenheim Tim Lemperle 0.14 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Mats Rots
41' VfB Stuttgart Grischa Prömel 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Chris Führich
43' Hoffenheim Wouter Burger 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Mats Rots
47' VfB Stuttgart Maximilian Mittelstädt 0.38 Open Play Left Foot Goal —
51' VfB Stuttgart Ermedin Demirovic 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Finn Jeltsch
51' VfB Stuttgart Finn Jeltsch 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
56' Hoffenheim Tim Lemperle 0.21 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Adam Daghim
56' Hoffenheim Wouter Burger 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Patrick Wimmer
58' Hoffenheim Mats Rots 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
61' VfB Stuttgart Dzenan Pejcinovic 0.58 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Chris Führich
63' Hoffenheim Adam Hlozek 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Tim Lemperle
65' Hoffenheim Ozan Kabak 0.06 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Mats Rots
66' Hoffenheim Adam Hlozek 0.37 Open Play Left Foot Goal Adam Daghim
70' Hoffenheim Tim Lemperle 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
73' Hoffenheim Adam Hlozek 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Tim Lemperle
73' Hoffenheim Patrick Wimmer 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
76' Hoffenheim Patrick Wimmer 0.02 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot —
77' VfB Stuttgart Finn Jeltsch 0.04 From Corner — Missed Shot Maximilian Mittelstädt
81' VfB Stuttgart Finn Jeltsch 0.31 From Corner — Missed Shot Maximilian Mittelstädt
85' Hoffenheim Adam Daghim 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Fisnik Asllani
85' VfB Stuttgart Julian Chabot 0.07 From Corner — Blocked Shot Bilal El Khannouss
88' VfB Stuttgart Bilal El Khannouss 0.03 From Corner — Blocked Shot Finn Jeltsch
88' VfB Stuttgart Finn Jeltsch 0.08 From Corner — Missed Shot Maximilian Mittelstädt
90' Hoffenheim Fisnik Asllani 0.46 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Patrick Wimmer
93' Hoffenheim Patrick Wimmer 0.44 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Fisnik Asllani
94' VfB Stuttgart Grischa Prömel 0.06 From Corner — Blocked Shot Maximilian Mittelstädt
94' VfB Stuttgart Julian Chabot 0.05 From Corner — Missed Shot Maximilian Mittelstädt

Players

VfB Stuttgart

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Dzenan Pejcinovic FW 90 0 0 1 1 0.58 0.03 0.64
Finn Jeltsch DC 90 0 0 4 2 0.43 0.13 0.27
Maximilian Mittelstädt DML 90 1 0 1 6 0.38 0.85 0.88
Julian Chabot DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.12 0.00 0.16
Grischa Prömel MC 90 0 0 3 0 0.11 0.00 0.50
Fabian Bredlow GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Joshua Vagnoman DMR 86 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.12 0.54
Ramon Hendriks DC 86 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.16
Ermedin Demirovic AMC 70 0 0 4 0 1.01 0.00 1.03
Chris Führich AMC 70 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.60 0.76
Yanik Spalt Sub 56 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Angelo Stiller MC 34 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Bilal El Khannouss Sub 20 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.07 0.00
Deniz Undav Sub 20 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Leo Sauer Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jamie Leweling Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Hoffenheim

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Wouter Burger DMC 90 0 0 2 0 0.12 0.00 0.56
Ozan Kabak DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.46
Adam Daghim AML 90 0 1 1 4 0.06 1.04 1.70
Albian Hajdari DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.03
Leon Avdullahu DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.33
Oliver Baumann GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Tim Lemperle FW 88 0 0 3 3 0.37 0.15 0.62
Adam Hlozek AMC 87 2 0 7 0 1.36 0.00 1.50
Mats Rots DL 74 0 0 2 3 0.04 0.26 0.30
Vladimir Coufal DR 74 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.18
Bambasé Conté AMR 60 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.32 0.34
Patrick Wimmer Sub 30 0 0 3 2 0.50 0.52 1.00
Valentin Gendrey Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Koki Machida Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andrej Kramaric Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.90
Fisnik Asllani Sub 2 0 0 1 2 0.46 0.51 0.96
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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