Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 12 September 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (7,703 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 8.7%
- 1-2 8.0%
- 2-1 7.8%
- 2-2 7.2%
- 1-3 4.9%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 70.5% | Under 2.5 | 29.5% |
| BTTS yes | 70.3% | BTTS no | 29.7% |
| Hoffenheim 1+ | 83.5% | Hoffenheim 2+ | 53.8% |
| VfB Stuttgart 1+ | 84.1% | VfB Stuttgart 2+ | 54.9% |
Expected goals 1.80 – 1.84. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- VfB Stuttgart carry the stronger rating, 1682 Elo against 1540.
- Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
- Away from home VfB Stuttgart average 1.99 xG a match.
- Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Hoffenheim were missing 1.09 expected goal involvements a match against 0.72.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
VfB Stuttgart have an estimated 38.1% win probability, against 38.1% for Hoffenheim and 23.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.80 for Hoffenheim and 1.84 for VfB Stuttgart.
Why Hoffenheim
At home Hoffenheim average 1.97 xG a match. They have had 7 days' rest to VfB Stuttgart's 3.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 23.9%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.80 to 1.84. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why VfB Stuttgart can win
VfB Stuttgart carry the stronger rating, 1682 Elo against 1540. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home VfB Stuttgart average 1.99 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Hoffenheim were missing 1.09 expected goal involvements a match against 0.72.
Key players
Hoffenheim's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Tim Lemperle (0.40), Andrej Kramaric (0.39), Fisnik Asllani (0.36). VfB Stuttgart's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Deniz Undav (0.63), Dzenan Pejcinovic (0.41), Ermedin Demirovic (0.40).
Availability
2 of Hoffenheim's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Hoffenheim's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of VfB Stuttgart's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of VfB Stuttgart's last eleven are new to the club this window.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Hoffenheim: 59% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 14.5 faced, 0.32 xG a match from set pieces. VfB Stuttgart: 51% possession, 16.8 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.49 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-12 15:20 · team_stats 2026-09-12 06:04 · availability 2026-09-12 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·
VfB Stuttgart are the model's most likely outcome at 38.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 8.7%. Confidence 88/100, data quality 85/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
VfB Stuttgart are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.83–1.68 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg | 1.85–1.67 | 1-1 9% | 68% | 68% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.79–1.63 | 1-1 10% | 67% | 67% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim to win | 47.1% | 47.6% | 41.6% | 1.14× | 2.10 |
| VfB Stuttgart to win | 31.6% | 30.6% | 33.7% | 0.91× | 3.27 |
| Draw | 21.3% | 24.6% | 24.8% | 0.99× | 4.07 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim & both teams score | 30.3% | 29.2% | 22.2% | 1.32× | 3.42 |
| VfB Stuttgart & both teams score | 21.0% | 21.8% | 18.4% | 1.19× | 4.60 |
| Draw & both teams score | 18.8% | 18.0% | 19.1% | 0.94× | 5.55 |
| Hoffenheim & not both score | 16.8% | 18.0% | 19.6% | 0.92× | 5.55 |
| VfB Stuttgart & not both score | 10.6% | 13.2% | 15.5% | 0.85× | 7.55 |
| Draw & not both score | 2.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 0.84× | 20.39 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim & over 1.5 | 41.9% | 40.0% | 35.4% | 1.13× | 2.50 |
| Hoffenheim & over 2.5 | 36.7% | 34.7% | 29.4% | 1.18× | 2.89 |
| VfB Stuttgart & over 1.5 | 27.4% | 25.9% | 27.8% | 0.93× | 3.85 |
| Hoffenheim & over 3.5 | 24.5% | 21.6% | 20.3% | 1.07× | 4.63 |
| VfB Stuttgart & over 2.5 | 24.0% | 21.6% | 23.6% | 0.92× | 4.63 |
| Hoffenheim & under 3.5 | 22.6% | 21.6% | 21.5% | 1.00× | 4.63 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 18.8% | 18.0% | 19.1% | 0.94× | 5.57 |
| VfB Stuttgart & under 3.5 | 16.4% | 18.0% | 19.8% | 0.91× | 5.57 |
| VfB Stuttgart & over 3.5 | 15.1% | 18.0% | 14.1% | 1.28× | 5.57 |
| Hoffenheim & under 2.5 | 10.4% | 12.9% | 12.3% | 1.04× | 7.78 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 10.3% | 12.9% | 9.5% | 1.35× | 7.78 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 11.0% | 12.9% | 15.5% | 0.83× | 7.78 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 10.3% | 12.9% | 9.5% | 1.35× | 7.78 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 11.0% | 12.9% | 15.5% | 0.83× | 7.78 |
| VfB Stuttgart & under 2.5 | 7.6% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 0.77× | 12.57 |
| Hoffenheim & under 1.5 | 5.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 1.26× | 12.57 |
| VfB Stuttgart & under 1.5 | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 0.81× | 20.58 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 2.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 0.83× | 20.59 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim (1UP) | 66.0% | 69.8% | 59.6% | 1.17× | 1.43 |
| VfB Stuttgart (1UP) | 53.4% | 52.8% | 52.9% | 1.00× | 1.89 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim (2UP) | 47.1% | 49.9% | 45.0% | 1.11× | 2.01 |
| VfB Stuttgart (2UP) | 31.6% | 30.8% | 36.6% | 0.84× | 3.25 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart to win 2nd half | 34.3% | 34.5% | 29.6% | 1.16× | 2.90 |
| Hoffenheim to win 2nd half | 34.1% | 34.5% | 37.1% | 0.93× | 2.90 |
| 2nd half drawn | 31.6% | 34.5% | 33.4% | 1.03× | 2.90 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart under 1.5 in 2nd half | 74.9% | 75.4% | 79.2% | 0.95× | 1.33 |
| VfB Stuttgart over 0.5 in 2nd half | 61.8% | 59.0% | 56.6% | 1.04× | 1.70 |
| VfB Stuttgart under 0.5 in 2nd half | 38.2% | 41.0% | 43.4% | 0.94× | 2.44 |
| VfB Stuttgart over 1.5 in 2nd half | 25.1% | 24.6% | 20.8% | 1.18× | 4.07 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim under 1.5 in 2nd half | 75.1% | 75.6% | 74.8% | 1.01× | 1.32 |
| Hoffenheim over 0.5 in 2nd half | 61.6% | 62.5% | 62.1% | 1.01× | 1.60 |
| Hoffenheim under 0.5 in 2nd half | 38.4% | 37.5% | 37.9% | 0.99× | 2.67 |
| Hoffenheim over 1.5 in 2nd half | 24.9% | 24.4% | 25.2% | 0.97× | 4.10 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart (+2.5) | 87.1% | 88.3% | 88.3% | 1.00× | 1.13 |
| VfB Stuttgart (+1.5) | 73.0% | 73.7% | 75.3% | 0.98× | 1.36 |
| Hoffenheim (+0.5) | 68.4% | 68.7% | 66.3% | 1.04× | 1.46 |
| VfB Stuttgart (+0.5) | 52.9% | 52.1% | 58.4% | 0.89× | 1.92 |
| Hoffenheim (-0.5) | 47.1% | 47.9% | 41.6% | 1.15× | 2.09 |
| VfB Stuttgart (-0.5) | 31.6% | 31.3% | 33.7% | 0.93× | 3.20 |
| Hoffenheim (-1.5) | 27.0% | 26.3% | 24.7% | 1.07× | 3.80 |
| Hoffenheim (-2.5) | 12.9% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 1.00× | 8.58 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart to concede | 86.9% | 86.2% | 78.8% | 1.09× | 1.16 |
| VfB Stuttgart clean sheet | 13.1% | 13.8% | 21.2% | 0.65× | 7.27 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart to concede in 1st half | 65.8% | 69.1% | 51.8% | 1.33× | 1.45 |
| VfB Stuttgart clean sheet in 1st half | 34.2% | 30.9% | 48.2% | 0.64× | 3.24 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart to concede in 2nd half | 61.6% | 60.2% | 62.1% | 0.97× | 1.66 |
| VfB Stuttgart clean sheet in 2nd half | 38.4% | 39.8% | 37.9% | 1.05× | 2.51 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart under 3.5 goals | 91.6% | 92.2% | 92.6% | 1.00× | 1.09 |
| VfB Stuttgart over 0.5 goals | 80.6% | 81.2% | 74.7% | 1.09× | 1.23 |
| VfB Stuttgart under 2.5 goals | 77.3% | 76.1% | 79.0% | 0.96× | 1.31 |
| VfB Stuttgart under 1.5 goals | 51.2% | 53.5% | 57.1% | 0.94× | 1.87 |
| VfB Stuttgart over 1.5 goals | 48.8% | 46.5% | 42.9% | 1.08× | 2.15 |
| VfB Stuttgart over 2.5 goals | 22.7% | 23.9% | 21.0% | 1.13× | 4.19 |
| VfB Stuttgart under 0.5 goals | 19.4% | 18.8% | 25.3% | 0.74× | 5.33 |
| VfB Stuttgart over 3.5 goals | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 1.05× | 12.81 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart under 1.5 in 1st half | 85.2% | 88.9% | 85.7% | 1.04× | 1.13 |
| VfB Stuttgart under 0.5 in 1st half | 50.8% | 55.6% | 54.4% | 1.02× | 1.80 |
| VfB Stuttgart over 0.5 in 1st half | 49.2% | 44.4% | 45.6% | 0.97× | 2.25 |
| VfB Stuttgart over 1.5 in 1st half | 14.8% | 11.1% | 14.3% | 0.78× | 8.97 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart scores more in 2nd half | 41.0% | 43.8% | 36.9% | 1.19× | 2.29 |
| VfB Stuttgart scores equally in both | 34.3% | 34.2% | 38.8% | 0.88× | 2.93 |
| VfB Stuttgart scores more in 1st half | 24.8% | 22.5% | 24.4% | 0.92× | 4.45 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim (away no bet) | 68.8% | 66.6% | 62.6% | 1.06× | 1.50 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 31.2% | 33.4% | 37.4% | 0.89× | 2.99 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart even goals | 51.9% | 52.8% | 53.2% | 0.99× | 1.90 |
| VfB Stuttgart odd goals | 48.1% | 47.2% | 46.8% | 1.01× | 2.12 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 70.1% | 76.8% | 75.8% | 1.01× | 1.30 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 29.9% | 23.2% | 24.2% | 0.96× | 4.32 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 79.5% | 72.8% | 72.3% | 1.01× | 1.37 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 20.5% | 27.2% | 27.7% | 0.98× | 3.68 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 70.9% | 71.8% | 66.9% | 1.07× | 1.39 |
| Hoffenheim to score 2+ in a row | 48.3% | 45.9% | 42.3% | 1.09× | 2.18 |
| VfB Stuttgart to score 2+ in a row | 35.7% | 36.4% | 34.7% | 1.05× | 2.74 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 30.9% | 29.0% | 29.5% | 0.98× | 3.45 |
| Hoffenheim to score 3+ in a row | 20.1% | 19.4% | 17.6% | 1.10× | 5.15 |
| VfB Stuttgart to score 3+ in a row | 11.7% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 0.94× | 8.25 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 8.5% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 0.75× | 13.53 |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 1.09× | 13.53 |
| 1-2 | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 1.09× | 13.53 |
| 2-2 | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 1.17× | 13.53 |
| Any other score | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 1.37× | 13.53 |
| 1-0 | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 1.17× | 13.53 |
| 2-0 | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 1.20× | 13.53 |
| 3-1 | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 1.20× | 13.53 |
| 0-0 | 2.5% | 1.7% | 5.9% | 0.30× | 57.67 |
| 0-1 | 4.2% | 1.7% | 6.0% | 0.29× | 57.66 |
| 0-2 | 3.4% | 1.7% | 4.4% | 0.39× | 57.66 |
| 0-3 | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 0.58× | 57.67 |
| 0-4 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.10× | 57.68 |
| 1-3 | 3.8% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 0.38× | 57.66 |
| 1-4 | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.00× | 57.67 |
| 2-3 | 3.9% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 0.64× | 57.66 |
| 2-4 | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.57× | 57.67 |
| 3-0 | 3.6% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 0.64× | 57.66 |
| 3-2 | 4.8% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 0.50× | 57.66 |
| 3-3 | 2.6% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 0.58× | 57.67 |
| 3-4 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.22× | 57.67 |
| 4-0 | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 0.48× | 57.67 |
| 4-1 | 3.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 0.78× | 57.66 |
| 4-2 | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.57× | 57.67 |
| 4-3 | 1.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.83× | 57.67 |
| 4-4 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.65× | 57.68 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart (2nd half DNB) | 50.2% | 52.9% | 44.4% | 1.19× | 1.89 |
| Hoffenheim (2nd half DNB) | 49.8% | 47.1% | 55.6% | 0.85× | 2.12 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim leading at HT (DNB) | 66.0% | 73.2% | 55.5% | 1.32× | 1.37 |
| VfB Stuttgart leading at HT (DNB) | 34.0% | 26.8% | 44.5% | 0.60× | 3.73 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim or VfB Stuttgart (12) | 78.7% | 75.4% | 75.2% | 1.00× | 1.33 |
| Hoffenheim or draw (1X) | 68.4% | 69.4% | 66.3% | 1.05× | 1.44 |
| VfB Stuttgart or draw (X2) | 52.9% | 52.4% | 58.4% | 0.90× | 1.91 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim or draw at HT | 77.1% | 80.0% | 70.7% | 1.13× | 1.25 |
| Hoffenheim or VfB Stuttgart at HT | 67.5% | 66.3% | 65.8% | 1.01× | 1.51 |
| VfB Stuttgart or draw at HT | 55.4% | 56.9% | 63.4% | 0.90× | 1.76 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim or draw (1UP) | 68.4% | 76.1% | 73.5% | 1.03× | 1.32 |
| VfB Stuttgart or draw (1UP) | 53.4% | 59.2% | 65.1% | 0.91× | 1.69 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim or VfB Stuttgart in 2nd half | 68.4% | 65.5% | 66.6% | 0.98× | 1.53 |
| VfB Stuttgart or draw in 2nd half | 65.9% | 65.5% | 62.9% | 1.04× | 1.53 |
| Hoffenheim or draw in 2nd half | 65.7% | 65.5% | 70.4% | 0.93× | 1.53 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 53.8% | 50.0% | 53.7% | 0.93× | 2.00 |
| Neither half drawn | 46.2% | 50.0% | 46.3% | 1.08× | 2.00 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim (DNB) | 59.9% | 58.4% | 55.3% | 1.06× | 1.71 |
| VfB Stuttgart (DNB) | 40.1% | 41.6% | 44.7% | 0.93× | 2.40 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim to score first | 53.9% | 53.9% | 50.7% | 1.06× | 1.86 |
| VfB Stuttgart to score first | 43.6% | 41.9% | 43.6% | 0.96× | 2.39 |
| No goal scored | 2.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 0.72× | 23.54 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 70.0% | 62.7% | 59.3% | 1.06× | 1.59 |
| Not both teams to score | 30.0% | 37.3% | 40.7% | 0.92× | 2.68 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 61.5% | 50.1% | 49.7% | 1.01× | 2.00 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 20.6% | 28.4% | 28.2% | 1.01× | 3.53 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 9.4% | 8.4% | 12.7% | 0.66× | 11.93 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 0.85× | 11.94 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 70.6% | 79.9% | 79.7% | 1.00× | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 29.4% | 20.1% | 20.3% | 0.99× | 4.97 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 61.9% | 65.9% | 65.6% | 1.00× | 1.52 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 38.1% | 34.1% | 34.4% | 0.99× | 2.93 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 41.9% | 49.9% | 51.7% | 0.97× | 2.00 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 25.8% | 26.6% | 27.7% | 0.96× | 3.77 |
| Both score 1st half only | 20.0% | 20.8% | 14.1% | 1.47× | 4.82 |
| Both score in both halves | 12.3% | 10.7% | 6.8% | 1.57× | 9.33 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 67.7% | 69.9% | 79.2% | 0.88× | 1.43 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 32.3% | 30.1% | 20.8% | 1.45× | 3.33 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 70.5% | 72.5% | 66.9% | 1.08× | 1.38 |
| A half without a goal | 29.5% | 27.5% | 33.1% | 0.83× | 3.63 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-6 goals | 42.1% | 41.9% | 39.9% | 1.05× | 2.39 |
| 2-3 goals | 38.1% | 35.0% | 38.8% | 0.90× | 2.86 |
| 0-1 goals | 11.9% | 17.1% | 17.9% | 0.96× | 5.84 |
| 7+ goals | 7.9% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 2.01× | 13.10 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart to score exactly 1 | 31.8% | 33.7% | 32.0% | 1.05× | 2.97 |
| VfB Stuttgart to score exactly 2 | 26.1% | 27.6% | 22.0% | 1.25× | 3.62 |
| VfB Stuttgart to score 3+ | 22.7% | 22.5% | 21.0% | 1.07× | 4.45 |
| VfB Stuttgart to score exactly 0 | 19.4% | 19.5% | 25.3% | 0.77× | 5.12 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim to score 3+ | 33.1% | 32.6% | 27.4% | 1.19× | 3.06 |
| Hoffenheim to score exactly 2 | 27.1% | 26.2% | 22.6% | 1.16× | 3.82 |
| Hoffenheim to score exactly 1 | 26.7% | 26.2% | 29.1% | 0.90× | 3.82 |
| Hoffenheim to score exactly 0 | 13.1% | 14.3% | 21.2% | 0.67× | 6.99 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim leading at HT | 44.6% | 43.1% | 36.6% | 1.18× | 2.32 |
| Draw at HT | 32.5% | 33.7% | 34.2% | 0.98× | 2.97 |
| VfB Stuttgart leading at HT | 22.9% | 20.0% | 29.3% | 0.68× | 4.99 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim -1: 2 | 52.9% | 51.9% | — | — | 1.93 |
| Hoffenheim -1: 1 | 27.0% | 26.6% | — | — | 3.76 |
| Hoffenheim -1: X | 20.1% | 23.6% | — | — | 4.23 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart (0:1) | 52.9% | 51.3% | 58.4% | 0.88× | 1.95 |
| Hoffenheim (0:1) | 27.0% | 27.1% | 24.7% | 1.10× | 3.69 |
| Draw (0:1) | 20.1% | 24.4% | 17.1% | 1.43× | 4.10 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart (0:2) | 73.0% | 75.9% | 75.3% | 1.01× | 1.32 |
| Draw (0:2) | 14.1% | 10.8% | 13.1% | 0.83× | 9.22 |
| Hoffenheim (0:2) | 12.9% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 0.93× | 9.22 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart (0:3) | 87.1% | 90.5% | 88.3% | 1.02× | 1.11 |
| Draw (0:3) | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 1.17× | 16.92 |
| Hoffenheim (0:3) | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 0.87× | 16.96 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart (0:4) | 94.8% | 94.5% | 93.2% | 1.01× | 1.06 |
| Draw (0:4) | 3.4% | 1.2% | 5.2% | 0.24× | 81.48 |
| Hoffenheim (0:4) | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 0.70× | 81.64 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim (1:0) | 68.4% | 69.5% | 66.3% | 1.05× | 1.44 |
| Draw (1:0) | 16.3% | 17.1% | 16.5% | 1.04× | 5.86 |
| VfB Stuttgart (1:0) | 15.3% | 17.1% | 17.4% | 0.98× | 5.86 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim (2:0) | 84.7% | 84.6% | 82.6% | 1.02× | 1.18 |
| Draw (2:0) | 9.2% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 0.66× | 15.24 |
| VfB Stuttgart (2:0) | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 0.86× | 15.28 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 42.6% | 48.3% | 46.9% | 1.03× | 2.07 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 35.7% | 35.7% | 26.3% | 1.36× | 2.80 |
| Halves equal | 21.6% | 24.1% | 26.9% | 0.89× | 4.16 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim to concede | 80.6% | 80.8% | 74.7% | 1.08× | 1.24 |
| Hoffenheim clean sheet | 19.4% | 19.2% | 25.3% | 0.76× | 5.21 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim clean sheet in 1st half | 50.8% | 55.6% | 54.4% | 1.02× | 1.80 |
| Hoffenheim to concede in 1st half | 49.2% | 44.4% | 45.6% | 0.97× | 2.25 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim to concede in 2nd half | 61.8% | 58.8% | 56.6% | 1.04× | 1.70 |
| Hoffenheim clean sheet in 2nd half | 38.2% | 41.2% | 43.4% | 0.95× | 2.43 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim over 0.5 goals | 86.9% | 87.2% | 78.8% | 1.11× | 1.15 |
| Hoffenheim under 3.5 goals | 85.2% | 87.2% | 88.6% | 0.98× | 1.15 |
| Hoffenheim under 2.5 goals | 66.9% | 67.9% | 72.6% | 0.93× | 1.47 |
| Hoffenheim over 1.5 goals | 60.2% | 63.3% | 49.8% | 1.27× | 1.58 |
| Hoffenheim under 1.5 goals | 39.8% | 36.7% | 50.2% | 0.73× | 2.72 |
| Hoffenheim over 2.5 goals | 33.1% | 32.1% | 27.4% | 1.17× | 3.11 |
| Hoffenheim over 3.5 goals | 14.8% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 1.12× | 7.81 |
| Hoffenheim under 0.5 goals | 13.1% | 12.8% | 21.2% | 0.60× | 7.82 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim under 1.5 in 1st half | 70.9% | 79.7% | 80.8% | 0.99× | 1.26 |
| Hoffenheim over 0.5 in 1st half | 65.8% | 67.9% | 51.8% | 1.31× | 1.47 |
| Hoffenheim under 0.5 in 1st half | 34.2% | 32.1% | 48.2% | 0.67× | 3.11 |
| Hoffenheim over 1.5 in 1st half | 29.1% | 20.3% | 19.2% | 1.06× | 4.92 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim scores more in 1st half | 37.7% | 37.7% | 25.7% | 1.47× | 2.66 |
| Hoffenheim scores more in 2nd half | 31.8% | 32.8% | 37.7% | 0.87× | 3.05 |
| Hoffenheim scores equally in both | 30.5% | 32.8% | 36.8% | 0.89× | 3.05 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart (home no bet) | 59.7% | 56.1% | 57.6% | 0.97× | 1.78 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 40.3% | 43.9% | 42.4% | 1.03× | 2.28 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim even goals | 50.9% | 50.4% | 52.5% | 0.96× | 1.98 |
| Hoffenheim odd goals | 49.1% | 49.6% | 47.5% | 1.05× | 2.02 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 1-0 | 18.7% | 18.7% | 19.3% | 0.97× | 5.36 |
| HT 0-0 | 17.4% | 18.6% | 23.3% | 0.80× | 5.36 |
| HT 1-1 | 12.6% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 1.11× | 9.15 |
| Any other HT score | 12.2% | 10.9% | 6.7% | 1.64× | 9.15 |
| HT 0-1 | 11.8% | 10.9% | 16.5% | 0.66× | 9.16 |
| HT 2-0 | 10.0% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 0.75× | 13.98 |
| HT 2-1 | 6.8% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 1.67× | 14.03 |
| HT 1-2 | 4.3% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 0.66× | 43.39 |
| HT 0-2 | 4.0% | 2.3% | 7.1% | 0.32× | 43.41 |
| HT 2-2 | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.81× | 43.54 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim at HT / Hoffenheim at FT | 33.8% | 32.9% | 28.1% | 1.17× | 3.04 |
| VfB Stuttgart at HT / VfB Stuttgart at FT | 16.6% | 16.8% | 20.3% | 0.83× | 5.97 |
| Draw at HT / VfB Stuttgart at FT | 11.2% | 12.7% | 10.0% | 1.27× | 7.90 |
| Draw at HT / Hoffenheim at FT | 11.1% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 1.19× | 7.91 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 10.3% | 12.6% | 13.9% | 0.91× | 7.91 |
| Hoffenheim at HT / Draw at FT | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 1.18× | 16.68 |
| VfB Stuttgart at HT / Draw at FT | 4.1% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 0.58× | 28.76 |
| Hoffenheim at HT / VfB Stuttgart at FT | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 0.91× | 28.77 |
| VfB Stuttgart at HT / Hoffenheim at FT | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.04× | 28.83 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim to score last | 53.9% | 52.1% | 49.8% | 1.05× | 1.92 |
| VfB Stuttgart to score last | 43.6% | 40.1% | 44.5% | 0.90× | 2.49 |
| No goal scored | 2.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 0.72× | 23.54 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 97.5% | 95.7% | 94.1% | 1.02× | 1.05 |
| Hoffenheim to lead by 1 at any time | 66.0% | 69.4% | 59.6% | 1.16× | 1.44 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 59.3% | 55.1% | 55.9% | 0.99× | 1.81 |
| VfB Stuttgart to lead by 1 at any time | 53.4% | 50.8% | 52.9% | 0.96× | 1.97 |
| Hoffenheim to lead by 2 at any time | 36.3% | 34.8% | 33.1% | 1.05× | 2.87 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 25.5% | 25.4% | 25.7% | 0.99× | 3.93 |
| VfB Stuttgart to lead by 2 at any time | 23.7% | 19.6% | 23.6% | 0.83× | 5.10 |
| Hoffenheim to lead by 3 at any time | 16.7% | 14.9% | 15.5% | 0.96× | 6.73 |
| VfB Stuttgart to lead by 3 at any time | 8.8% | 6.7% | 10.3% | 0.65× | 15.03 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 80.9% | 83.3% | 83.2% | 1.00× | 1.20 |
| 2-6 goals | 80.2% | 83.3% | 78.5% | 1.06× | 1.20 |
| 2-5 goals | 71.6% | 72.3% | 71.2% | 1.02× | 1.38 |
| 1-4 goals | 66.8% | 68.8% | 72.3% | 0.95× | 1.45 |
| 3-6 goals | 63.0% | 63.2% | 58.5% | 1.08× | 1.58 |
| 2-4 goals | 57.4% | 59.3% | 60.3% | 0.98× | 1.69 |
| 3-5 goals | 54.4% | 53.4% | 51.3% | 1.04× | 1.87 |
| 1-3 goals | 47.5% | 48.5% | 50.8% | 0.95× | 2.06 |
| 4-6 goals | 42.1% | 43.6% | 39.9% | 1.09× | 2.29 |
| 3-4 goals | 40.3% | 43.6% | 40.3% | 1.08× | 2.30 |
| 2-3 goals | 38.1% | 39.3% | 38.8% | 1.01× | 2.55 |
| 4-5 goals | 33.4% | 35.3% | 32.6% | 1.08× | 2.83 |
| 1-2 goals | 26.5% | 30.6% | 32.1% | 0.95× | 3.27 |
| 5-6 goals | 22.8% | 24.8% | 18.4% | 1.35× | 4.04 |
| 7+ goals | 7.9% | 9.0% | 3.8% | 2.36× | 11.15 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim never behind | 44.1% | 48.3% | 47.1% | 1.03× | 2.07 |
| VfB Stuttgart never behind | 31.4% | 35.5% | 40.4% | 0.88× | 2.82 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 50.0% | 51.0% | 44.8% | 1.14× | 1.96 |
| Even number of goals | 50.0% | 49.0% | 55.2% | 0.89× | 2.04 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 51.5% | 51.6% | 52.6% | 0.98× | 1.94 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 48.5% | 48.4% | 47.4% | 1.02× | 2.07 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 51.1% | 52.0% | 52.9% | 0.98× | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 48.9% | 48.0% | 47.1% | 1.02× | 2.08 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 97.5% | 95.4% | 94.1% | 1.01× | 1.05 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.1% | 87.5% | 82.1% | 1.06× | 1.14 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 83.4% | 82.2% | 88.9% | 0.92× | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.9% | 72.4% | 62.2% | 1.16× | 1.38 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 69.3% | 66.0% | 78.0% | 0.85× | 1.52 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 50.0% | 53.0% | 56.5% | 0.94× | 1.89 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50.0% | 47.0% | 43.5% | 1.08× | 2.13 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 30.7% | 34.0% | 22.0% | 1.55× | 2.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.1% | 27.6% | 37.8% | 0.73× | 3.62 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 16.6% | 17.8% | 11.1% | 1.61× | 5.61 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 11.9% | 12.5% | 17.9% | 0.70× | 7.97 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 2.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 0.78× | 21.77 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 91.4% | 92.4% | 95.9% | 0.96× | 1.08 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 85.6% | 86.6% | 77.7% | 1.12× | 1.16 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 80.7% | 80.5% | 87.6% | 0.92× | 1.24 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 63.2% | 61.6% | 53.5% | 1.15× | 1.62 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 62.0% | 61.6% | 72.0% | 0.86× | 1.62 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 38.0% | 38.4% | 28.0% | 1.37× | 2.61 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 36.8% | 38.4% | 46.5% | 0.83× | 2.61 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 19.3% | 19.5% | 12.4% | 1.57× | 5.12 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 14.4% | 13.4% | 22.3% | 0.60× | 7.47 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 8.6% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 1.86× | 13.14 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 82.6% | 86.3% | 76.7% | 1.12× | 1.16 |
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 74.4% | 71.3% | 84.8% | 0.84× | 1.40 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 52.2% | 56.5% | 41.2% | 1.37× | 1.77 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 47.8% | 43.5% | 58.8% | 0.74× | 2.30 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 25.6% | 28.7% | 15.2% | 1.89× | 3.48 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 17.4% | 13.7% | 23.3% | 0.59× | 7.28 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 85.4% | 85.3% | 84.3% | 1.01× | 1.17 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 69.8% | 67.7% | 73.4% | 0.92× | 1.48 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 57.2% | 54.7% | 55.3% | 0.99× | 1.83 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 42.8% | 45.3% | 44.7% | 1.01× | 2.21 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 30.2% | 32.3% | 26.6% | 1.21× | 3.09 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 14.6% | 14.7% | 15.7% | 0.94× | 6.80 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart not to score in both halves | 69.6% | 70.6% | 72.4% | 0.98× | 1.42 |
| Hoffenheim not to score in both halves | 59.5% | 57.8% | 64.8% | 0.89× | 1.73 |
| Hoffenheim to score in both halves | 40.5% | 42.2% | 35.2% | 1.20× | 2.37 |
| VfB Stuttgart to score in both halves | 30.4% | 29.4% | 27.6% | 1.07× | 3.40 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 70.0% | 66.1% | 59.3% | 1.11× | 1.51 |
| Only Hoffenheim scores | 16.8% | 16.0% | 19.6% | 0.82× | 6.25 |
| Only VfB Stuttgart scores | 10.6% | 11.1% | 15.5% | 0.71× | 9.02 |
| Neither team scores | 2.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 0.79× | 21.66 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3 goals | 21.0% | 22.4% | 18.8% | 1.19× | 4.46 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 19.3% | 17.6% | 21.7% | 0.81× | 5.70 |
| Exactly 2 goals | 17.2% | 17.5% | 20.1% | 0.87× | 5.70 |
| 6 or more goals | 16.6% | 17.5% | 11.1% | 1.58× | 5.70 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 14.1% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 1.09× | 8.30 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 9.3% | 7.8% | 12.2% | 0.64× | 12.85 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 2.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 0.77× | 22.25 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 1st half | 30.4% | 35.8% | 35.7% | 1.00× | 2.79 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 26.6% | 28.5% | 26.1% | 1.09× | 3.51 |
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 25.6% | 28.5% | 15.2% | 1.87× | 3.51 |
| No goals in 1st half | 17.4% | 15.2% | 23.3% | 0.65× | 6.56 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 57.2% | 53.4% | 55.3% | 0.96× | 1.87 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 28.1% | 29.8% | 29.2% | 1.02× | 3.36 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 14.6% | 14.6% | 15.7% | 0.93× | 6.87 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart not to win both halves | 92.1% | 94.0% | 90.5% | 1.04× | 1.06 |
| Hoffenheim not to win both halves | 84.8% | 84.3% | 84.2% | 1.00× | 1.19 |
| Hoffenheim to win both halves | 15.2% | 15.7% | 15.8% | 0.99× | 6.39 |
| VfB Stuttgart to win both halves | 7.9% | 6.0% | 9.5% | 0.64× | 16.56 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim to win either half | 63.4% | 65.1% | 57.8% | 1.12× | 1.54 |
| VfB Stuttgart to win neither half | 50.6% | 54.8% | 50.6% | 1.08× | 1.83 |
| VfB Stuttgart to win either half | 49.4% | 45.2% | 49.4% | 0.91× | 2.21 |
| Hoffenheim to win neither half | 36.6% | 34.9% | 42.2% | 0.83× | 2.86 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart not to win to nil | 89.4% | 87.9% | 84.5% | 1.04× | 1.14 |
| Hoffenheim not to win to nil | 83.2% | 83.2% | 80.4% | 1.03× | 1.20 |
| Hoffenheim to win to nil | 16.8% | 16.8% | 19.6% | 0.86× | 5.94 |
| VfB Stuttgart to win to nil | 10.6% | 12.1% | 15.5% | 0.78× | 8.30 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 21.3% | 24.2% | 24.8% | 0.97× | 4.14 |
| Hoffenheim by 1 | 20.1% | 24.2% | 17.1% | 1.41× | 4.14 |
| VfB Stuttgart by 1 | 16.3% | 16.9% | 16.5% | 1.03× | 5.92 |
| Hoffenheim by 2 | 14.1% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 0.89× | 8.53 |
| Hoffenheim by 3+ | 12.9% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 1.00× | 8.53 |
| VfB Stuttgart by 2 | 9.2% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 0.73× | 13.76 |
| VfB Stuttgart by 3+ | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 0.96× | 13.77 |
Reading the xG timeline
Expected goals by minute
Reading the shot map
Shot map
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
|
Adam Hlozek | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Daghim |
| 7' |
|
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 10' |
|
Mats Rots | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tim Lemperle |
| 12' |
|
Adam Hlozek | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bambasé Conté |
| 17' |
|
Grischa Prömel | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dzenan Pejcinovic |
| 20' |
|
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 22' |
|
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joshua Vagnoman |
| 37' |
|
Adam Hlozek | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Daghim |
| 38' |
|
Adam Hlozek | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 39' |
|
Tim Lemperle | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mats Rots |
| 41' |
|
Grischa Prömel | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Chris Führich |
| 43' |
|
Wouter Burger | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mats Rots |
| 47' |
|
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 51' |
|
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Finn Jeltsch |
| 51' |
|
Finn Jeltsch | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
|
Tim Lemperle | 0.21 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adam Daghim |
| 56' |
|
Wouter Burger | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Patrick Wimmer |
| 58' |
|
Mats Rots | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
|
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.58 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Chris Führich |
| 63' |
|
Adam Hlozek | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tim Lemperle |
| 65' |
|
Ozan Kabak | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mats Rots |
| 66' |
|
Adam Hlozek | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Adam Daghim |
| 70' |
|
Tim Lemperle | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 73' |
|
Adam Hlozek | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tim Lemperle |
| 73' |
|
Patrick Wimmer | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
|
Patrick Wimmer | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
|
Finn Jeltsch | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 81' |
|
Finn Jeltsch | 0.31 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 85' |
|
Adam Daghim | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Fisnik Asllani |
| 85' |
|
Julian Chabot | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 88' |
|
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Finn Jeltsch |
| 88' |
|
Finn Jeltsch | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 90' |
|
Fisnik Asllani | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Patrick Wimmer |
| 93' |
|
Patrick Wimmer | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fisnik Asllani |
| 94' |
|
Grischa Prömel | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 94' |
|
Julian Chabot | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
Players
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dzenan Pejcinovic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.03 | 0.64 |
| Finn Jeltsch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.13 | 0.27 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.38 | 0.85 | 0.88 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Grischa Prömel MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Fabian Bredlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Joshua Vagnoman DMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.54 |
| Ramon Hendriks DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Ermedin Demirovic AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.01 | 0.00 | 1.03 |
| Chris Führich AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 0.76 |
| Yanik Spalt Sub | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Angelo Stiller MC | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Bilal El Khannouss Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| Deniz Undav Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leo Sauer Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jamie Leweling Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wouter Burger DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Ozan Kabak DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Adam Daghim AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.06 | 1.04 | 1.70 |
| Albian Hajdari DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.03 |
| Leon Avdullahu DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Tim Lemperle FW | 88 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.37 | 0.15 | 0.62 |
| Adam Hlozek AMC | 87 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1.36 | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Mats Rots DL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| Vladimir Coufal DR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Bambasé Conté AMR | 60 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| Patrick Wimmer Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.52 | 1.00 |
| Valentin Gendrey Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Koki Machida Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrej Kramaric Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Fisnik Asllani Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 0.96 |