Holstein Kiel v Arminia Bielefeld — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 November 2026 · GER-2. Bundesliga · 2627

GER-2. Bundesliga results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Holstein Kiel

20:00 UTC

Arminia Bielefeld

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 23 Oct, 10:58 · 369h before kick-off

Holstein Kiel win

39.9%

model 39.8%

Draw

28.9%

model 25.7%

Arminia Bielefeld win

31.2%

model 34.5%

402931

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.0%
2-1 8.7%
1-2 8.0%
1-0 7.9%
0-1 7.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	55.2%	Under 2.5	44.8%
BTTS yes	58.8%	BTTS no	41.2%
Holstein Kiel 1+	77.8%	Holstein Kiel 2+	44.4%
Arminia Bielefeld 1+	75.0%	Arminia Bielefeld 2+	40.3%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.39. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

22/100

Data quality

55/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

1-3 goals

Multi goal · usually 59%

62.1% fair odds 1.61

moderate signal · 3852 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Arminia Bielefeld (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 78%

83.5% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Holstein Kiel.

Risk factors

Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
The model's measured edge in this competition is 0.0032 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Holstein Kiel have an estimated 39.9% win probability, against 31.2% for Arminia Bielefeld and 28.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.50 for Holstein Kiel and 1.39 for Arminia Bielefeld.

Why Holstein Kiel

Nothing in the data singles out Holstein Kiel.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.9%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.50 to 1.39. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Arminia Bielefeld can win

Nothing in the data singles out Arminia Bielefeld.

Key players

Holstein Kiel's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Steven Skrzybski (0.28), Phil Harres (0.26), Shuto Machino (0.22).

Availability

1 of Holstein Kiel's top three contributors did not start their last match. Holstein Kiel had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.05 expected goal involvements a match. Reported unavailable for Holstein Kiel: Carl Johansson (suspended). No lineup on record for Arminia Bielefeld, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Holstein Kiel: 59% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.31 xG a match from set pieces. Arminia Bielefeld: 48% possession, 18.4 shots a match, 13.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-23 14:52 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-23 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Holstein Kiel are the model's most likely outcome at 39.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.0%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Holstein Kiel have scored 14 from 13.7 expected and conceded 21 from 20.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

DLLDLDWWLL last 10 scored 14 from 13.7 xG conceded 21 from 20.2 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	402634	1.51–1.39	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	392636	1.47–1.41	1-1 12%	55%	59%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel to win	38.6%	36.4%	43.2%	0.84×	2.75
Arminia Bielefeld to win	35.7%	36.3%	31.0%	1.17×	2.75
Draw	25.8%	27.9%	26.0%	1.07×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel & both teams score	20.2%	21.8%	22.3%	0.98×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.7%	18.0%	19.8%	0.91×	5.56
Arminia Bielefeld & both teams score	18.8%	18.0%	18.0%	1.00×	5.57
Holstein Kiel & not both score	18.4%	18.0%	21.1%	0.85×	5.57
Arminia Bielefeld & not both score	16.8%	18.0%	13.2%	1.37×	5.57
Draw & not both score	6.1%	8.3%	6.3%	1.31×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel & over 1.5	30.8%	30.8%	34.5%	0.89×	3.25
Arminia Bielefeld & over 1.5	28.2%	26.1%	25.7%	1.01×	3.84
Holstein Kiel & under 3.5	25.4%	26.1%	28.0%	0.93×	3.84
Holstein Kiel & over 2.5	24.7%	21.6%	28.0%	0.77×	4.63
Arminia Bielefeld & under 3.5	23.8%	21.6%	20.9%	1.03×	4.63
Arminia Bielefeld & over 2.5	22.7%	21.6%	22.0%	0.98×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.7%	18.0%	19.8%	0.91×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	18.2%	18.0%	16.9%	1.07×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.2%	18.0%	16.9%	1.07×	5.56
Holstein Kiel & under 2.5	13.9%	12.8%	15.3%	0.84×	7.79
Holstein Kiel & over 3.5	13.1%	12.8%	15.3%	0.84×	7.79
Arminia Bielefeld & under 2.5	13.0%	12.8%	9.1%	1.41×	7.79
Arminia Bielefeld & over 3.5	11.9%	12.8%	10.2%	1.26×	7.79
Holstein Kiel & under 1.5	7.8%	7.9%	8.8%	0.90×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.6%	7.9%	9.3%	0.85×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.6%	7.9%	9.3%	0.85×	12.63
Arminia Bielefeld & under 1.5	7.4%	7.9%	5.4%	1.46×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.1%	7.9%	6.3%	1.25×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel (1UP)	56.2%	58.0%	—	—	1.73
Arminia Bielefeld (1UP)	53.7%	52.7%	—	—	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel (2UP)	38.6%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
Arminia Bielefeld (2UP)	35.7%	37.3%	—	—	2.68

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	34.6%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
Arminia Bielefeld to win 2nd half	32.9%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
Holstein Kiel to win 2nd half	32.6%	34.3%	—	—	2.91

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arminia Bielefeld under 1.5 in 2nd half	79.2%	79.1%	—	—	1.26
Arminia Bielefeld over 0.5 in 2nd half	57.1%	54.5%	—	—	1.83
Arminia Bielefeld under 0.5 in 2nd half	42.9%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
Arminia Bielefeld over 1.5 in 2nd half	20.8%	20.9%	—	—	4.80

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel under 1.5 in 2nd half	79.4%	75.6%	—	—	1.32
Holstein Kiel over 0.5 in 2nd half	56.8%	58.0%	—	—	1.73
Holstein Kiel under 0.5 in 2nd half	43.2%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
Holstein Kiel over 1.5 in 2nd half	20.6%	24.4%	—	—	4.10

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arminia Bielefeld (+2.5)	92.9%	92.1%	90.6%	1.02×	1.09
Arminia Bielefeld (+1.5)	81.3%	82.5%	77.7%	1.06×	1.21
Holstein Kiel (+0.5)	64.3%	63.0%	69.0%	0.91×	1.59
Arminia Bielefeld (+0.5)	61.4%	62.9%	56.8%	1.11×	1.59
Holstein Kiel (-0.5)	38.6%	37.1%	43.2%	0.86×	2.70
Arminia Bielefeld (-0.5)	35.7%	37.0%	31.0%	1.20×	2.70
Holstein Kiel (-1.5)	18.7%	17.5%	22.3%	0.78×	5.72
Holstein Kiel (-2.5)	7.1%	7.9%	9.4%	0.83×	12.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arminia Bielefeld to concede	77.1%	78.8%	80.7%	0.98×	1.27
Arminia Bielefeld clean sheet	22.9%	21.2%	19.4%	1.10×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arminia Bielefeld clean sheet in 1st half	53.1%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Arminia Bielefeld to concede in 1st half	46.9%	49.4%	—	—	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arminia Bielefeld to concede in 2nd half	56.8%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Arminia Bielefeld clean sheet in 2nd half	43.2%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arminia Bielefeld over 2.5 corners	87.7%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Arminia Bielefeld over 3.5 corners	76.3%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Arminia Bielefeld under 6.5 corners	64.4%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Arminia Bielefeld over 4.5 corners	62.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Arminia Bielefeld under 5.5 corners	51.5%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Arminia Bielefeld over 5.5 corners	48.5%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Arminia Bielefeld under 4.5 corners	37.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Arminia Bielefeld over 6.5 corners	35.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Arminia Bielefeld under 3.5 corners	23.7%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Arminia Bielefeld under 2.5 corners	12.3%	14.8%	—	—	6.78

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arminia Bielefeld under 3.5 goals	94.5%	92.4%	94.6%	0.98×	1.08
Arminia Bielefeld under 2.5 goals	83.1%	81.5%	83.7%	0.97×	1.23
Arminia Bielefeld over 0.5 goals	75.6%	76.2%	72.8%	1.05×	1.31
Arminia Bielefeld under 1.5 goals	58.9%	59.4%	60.4%	0.98×	1.68
Arminia Bielefeld over 1.5 goals	41.1%	40.6%	39.6%	1.02×	2.47
Arminia Bielefeld under 0.5 goals	24.4%	23.8%	27.2%	0.87×	4.21
Arminia Bielefeld over 2.5 goals	16.9%	18.5%	16.3%	1.14×	5.40
Arminia Bielefeld over 3.5 goals	5.5%	7.6%	5.4%	1.41×	13.08

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arminia Bielefeld under 1.5 in 1st half	89.0%	89.4%	—	—	1.12
Arminia Bielefeld under 0.5 in 1st half	56.9%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Arminia Bielefeld over 0.5 in 1st half	43.1%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Arminia Bielefeld over 1.5 in 1st half	11.0%	10.6%	—	—	9.42

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arminia Bielefeld scores more in 2nd half	39.6%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Arminia Bielefeld scores equally in both	37.5%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Arminia Bielefeld scores more in 1st half	22.8%	22.0%	—	—	4.55

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel (away no bet)	59.9%	57.4%	62.4%	0.92×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	40.1%	42.6%	37.6%	1.13×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arminia Bielefeld even goals	53.0%	52.6%	54.0%	0.97×	1.90
Arminia Bielefeld odd goals	47.0%	47.4%	46.0%	1.03×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	83.1%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	16.9%	17.2%	—	—	5.80

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	67.2%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	32.8%	31.6%	—	—	3.17

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	58.3%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Holstein Kiel to score 2+ in a row	34.0%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Arminia Bielefeld to score 2+ in a row	31.7%	29.2%	—	—	3.43
Either team to score 3+ in a row	20.9%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Holstein Kiel to score 3+ in a row	11.3%	12.0%	—	—	8.33
Arminia Bielefeld to score 3+ in a row	10.0%	12.0%	—	—	8.35

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arminia Bielefeld corners (+3.5)	87.5%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Arminia Bielefeld corners (+2.5)	81.3%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Holstein Kiel corners (+3.5)	75.7%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Arminia Bielefeld corners (+1.5)	73.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Holstein Kiel corners (+2.5)	66.9%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Holstein Kiel corners (+1.5)	57.0%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Arminia Bielefeld corners (-1.5)	43.0%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Arminia Bielefeld corners (-2.5)	33.1%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Holstein Kiel corners (-1.5)	26.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Arminia Bielefeld corners (-3.5)	24.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Holstein Kiel corners (-2.5)	18.7%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Holstein Kiel corners (-3.5)	12.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	37.6%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
0-8 corners	32.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	30.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	77.3%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 12.5 corners	71.1%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 8.5 corners	67.9%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	62.4%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	57.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	52.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	47.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	42.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	37.6%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 8.5 corners	32.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 12.5 corners	28.9%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	22.7%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.1%	11.5%	10.7%	1.07×	8.72
2-1	8.6%	7.4%	9.0%	0.82×	13.50
0-1	7.4%	7.4%	5.4%	1.37×	13.50
1-0	7.8%	7.4%	8.8%	0.84×	13.50
1-2	8.2%	7.4%	9.0%	0.82×	13.50
0-0	6.1%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.51
0-2	5.6%	7.4%	3.9%	1.91×	13.51
2-0	6.1%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.51
2-2	6.0%	7.4%	7.3%	1.02×	13.51
0-3	2.6%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
0-4	0.9%	1.7%	1.1%	1.58×	58.31
1-3	3.8%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.30
1-4	1.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.85×	58.31
2-3	2.8%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.30
2-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.8%	2.22×	58.31
3-0	3.0%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.30
3-1	4.2%	1.7%	5.4%	0.32×	58.30
3-2	3.0%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
3-3	1.4%	1.7%	2.0%	0.85×	58.31
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.9%	1.85×	58.32
4-0	1.1%	1.7%	0.9%	1.85×	58.31
4-1	1.6%	1.7%	2.0%	0.85×	58.31
4-2	1.1%	1.7%	0.8%	2.22×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.6%	2.77×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.54×	58.32
Any other score	3.2%	1.7%	5.4%	0.32×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arminia Bielefeld (2nd half DNB)	50.2%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Holstein Kiel (2nd half DNB)	49.8%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel leading at HT (DNB)	53.9%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Arminia Bielefeld leading at HT (DNB)	46.1%	45.0%	—	—	2.22

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel or Arminia Bielefeld (12)	74.2%	72.1%	74.0%	0.97×	1.39
Holstein Kiel or draw (1X)	64.3%	63.7%	69.0%	0.92×	1.57
Arminia Bielefeld or draw (X2)	61.4%	63.6%	56.8%	1.12×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel or draw at HT	73.3%	75.1%	—	—	1.33
Arminia Bielefeld or draw at HT	68.8%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Holstein Kiel or Arminia Bielefeld at HT	57.9%	57.1%	—	—	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel or draw (1UP)	64.3%	71.7%	—	—	1.39
Arminia Bielefeld or draw (1UP)	61.4%	71.6%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arminia Bielefeld or draw in 2nd half	67.4%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Holstein Kiel or draw in 2nd half	67.1%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Holstein Kiel or Arminia Bielefeld in 2nd half	65.4%	65.6%	—	—	1.52

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.6%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	38.4%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel (DNB)	52.0%	50.9%	58.2%	0.87×	1.96
Arminia Bielefeld (DNB)	48.0%	49.1%	41.8%	1.18×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel to score first	48.0%	46.0%	—	—	2.17
Arminia Bielefeld to score first	45.9%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
No goal scored	6.1%	7.4%	—	—	13.49

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.7%	55.0%	59.8%	0.92×	1.82
Not both teams to score	41.3%	45.0%	40.2%	1.12×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	46.6%	44.3%	49.2%	0.90×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	32.9%	34.5%	30.5%	1.13×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	12.1%	12.4%	10.7%	1.16×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.4%	8.3%	9.9%	0.84×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	82.2%	82.6%	80.5%	1.03×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	17.8%	17.4%	19.5%	0.89×	5.74

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	67.4%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	32.6%	32.7%	—	—	3.06

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	53.7%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Both score 2nd half only	26.0%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Both score 1st half only	13.7%	10.7%	—	—	9.34
Both score in both halves	6.6%	6.8%	—	—	14.74

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.7%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	20.3%	18.7%	—	—	5.34

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	57.1%	57.3%	—	—	1.74
A half without a goal	42.9%	42.7%	—	—	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.1%	47.2%	45.4%	1.04×	2.12
4-6 goals	29.9%	26.6%	30.5%	0.87×	3.76
0-1 goals	21.3%	22.9%	20.3%	1.13×	4.37
7+ goals	2.8%	1.8%	4.2%	0.44×	54.22

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arminia Bielefeld to score exactly 1	34.4%	33.8%	33.3%	1.02×	2.95
Arminia Bielefeld to score exactly 0	24.4%	22.3%	27.2%	0.82×	4.48
Arminia Bielefeld to score exactly 2	24.3%	22.3%	23.5%	0.95×	4.48
Arminia Bielefeld to score 3+	16.9%	19.6%	16.3%	1.20×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel to score exactly 1	33.8%	32.6%	31.7%	1.03×	3.07
Holstein Kiel to score exactly 2	24.9%	23.3%	26.6%	0.88×	4.29
Holstein Kiel to score exactly 0	22.9%	23.3%	19.4%	1.21×	4.29
Holstein Kiel to score 3+	18.5%	18.8%	22.6%	0.83×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.1%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Holstein Kiel leading at HT	31.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Arminia Bielefeld leading at HT	26.7%	24.9%	—	—	4.02

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel -1: 2	61.4%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Holstein Kiel -1: X	19.9%	17.5%	—	—	5.70
Holstein Kiel -1: 1	18.7%	17.5%	—	—	5.70

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arminia Bielefeld (0:1)	61.4%	61.3%	56.8%	1.08×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	19.9%	17.8%	21.1%	0.85×	5.61
Holstein Kiel (0:1)	18.7%	17.8%	22.3%	0.80×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arminia Bielefeld (0:2)	81.3%	82.9%	77.7%	1.07×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.5%	11.0%	13.0%	0.85×	9.10
Holstein Kiel (0:2)	7.1%	7.7%	9.4%	0.81×	13.04

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arminia Bielefeld (0:3)	92.9%	92.7%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.9%	2.4%	6.0%	0.39×	41.98
Holstein Kiel (0:3)	2.2%	2.4%	3.6%	0.67×	42.09

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arminia Bielefeld (0:4)	97.8%	98.1%	96.4%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.6%	1.2%	2.0%	0.61×	81.92
Holstein Kiel (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	1.7%	0.72×	82.04

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel (1:0)	64.3%	65.4%	69.0%	0.95×	1.53
Draw (1:0)	19.0%	17.1%	18.0%	0.95×	5.85
Arminia Bielefeld (1:0)	16.7%	17.1%	13.2%	1.30×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel (2:0)	83.3%	84.6%	86.8%	0.97×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	10.6%	10.3%	7.1%	1.44×	9.73
Arminia Bielefeld (2:0)	6.1%	6.4%	6.2%	1.03×	15.70

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.4%	48.8%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	26.8%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	24.7%	24.4%	—	—	4.10

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel to concede	75.6%	76.0%	72.8%	1.05×	1.32
Holstein Kiel clean sheet	24.4%	24.0%	27.2%	0.88×	4.17

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel clean sheet in 1st half	56.9%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Holstein Kiel to concede in 1st half	43.1%	38.1%	—	—	2.63

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel to concede in 2nd half	57.1%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Holstein Kiel clean sheet in 2nd half	42.9%	45.2%	—	—	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel over 2.5 corners	81.1%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Holstein Kiel under 6.5 corners	76.0%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Holstein Kiel over 3.5 corners	66.3%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Holstein Kiel under 5.5 corners	64.2%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Holstein Kiel over 4.5 corners	50.4%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Holstein Kiel under 4.5 corners	49.6%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Holstein Kiel over 5.5 corners	35.8%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Holstein Kiel under 3.5 corners	33.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Holstein Kiel over 6.5 corners	24.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Holstein Kiel under 2.5 corners	18.9%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel under 3.5 goals	93.8%	92.2%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
Holstein Kiel under 2.5 goals	81.5%	82.2%	77.4%	1.06×	1.22
Holstein Kiel over 0.5 goals	77.1%	77.7%	80.7%	0.96×	1.29
Holstein Kiel under 1.5 goals	56.7%	58.6%	50.9%	1.15×	1.71
Holstein Kiel over 1.5 goals	43.3%	41.4%	49.1%	0.84×	2.42
Holstein Kiel under 0.5 goals	22.9%	22.3%	19.4%	1.15×	4.49
Holstein Kiel over 2.5 goals	18.5%	17.8%	22.6%	0.79×	5.62
Holstein Kiel over 3.5 goals	6.2%	7.8%	7.6%	1.02×	12.90

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel under 1.5 in 1st half	86.7%	90.2%	—	—	1.11
Holstein Kiel under 0.5 in 1st half	53.1%	50.4%	—	—	1.99
Holstein Kiel over 0.5 in 1st half	46.9%	49.6%	—	—	2.02
Holstein Kiel over 1.5 in 1st half	13.3%	9.8%	—	—	10.17

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel scores more in 2nd half	37.7%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Holstein Kiel scores equally in both	36.8%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Holstein Kiel scores more in 1st half	25.5%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arminia Bielefeld (home no bet)	58.0%	56.4%	54.3%	1.04×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	42.0%	43.6%	45.7%	0.95×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel even goals	52.6%	50.7%	50.9%	1.00×	1.97
Holstein Kiel odd goals	47.4%	49.3%	49.1%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.3%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
HT 1-0	19.1%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 0-1	16.9%	18.6%	—	—	5.39
HT 1-1	10.9%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
HT 2-0	6.1%	6.9%	—	—	14.51
HT 0-2	4.8%	2.4%	—	—	41.97
Any other HT score	4.6%	2.4%	—	—	41.98
HT 2-1	3.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.06
HT 1-2	3.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.08
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.22

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel at HT / Holstein Kiel at FT	22.7%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Arminia Bielefeld at HT / Arminia Bielefeld at FT	19.3%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.1%	16.7%	—	—	5.99
Draw at HT / Arminia Bielefeld at FT	13.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Holstein Kiel at FT	13.5%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Holstein Kiel at HT / Draw at FT	5.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.67
Arminia Bielefeld at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.58
Holstein Kiel at HT / Arminia Bielefeld at FT	2.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.67
Arminia Bielefeld at HT / Holstein Kiel at FT	2.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.68

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel to score last	48.0%	46.5%	—	—	2.15
Arminia Bielefeld to score last	45.9%	46.4%	—	—	2.15
No goal scored	6.1%	7.4%	—	—	13.49

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.9%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Holstein Kiel to lead by 1 at any time	56.2%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Arminia Bielefeld to lead by 1 at any time	53.7%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	48.3%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
Holstein Kiel to lead by 2 at any time	25.4%	25.5%	—	—	3.93
Arminia Bielefeld to lead by 2 at any time	23.2%	19.7%	—	—	5.08
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.3%	14.9%	—	—	6.69
Holstein Kiel to lead by 3 at any time	9.2%	6.7%	—	—	14.83
Arminia Bielefeld to lead by 3 at any time	8.1%	6.7%	—	—	14.88

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arminia Bielefeld most corners	53.6%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Holstein Kiel most corners	36.0%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	10.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.7%	87.4%	84.7%	1.03×	1.14
1-4 goals	77.4%	78.7%	75.7%	1.04×	1.27
2-6 goals	75.9%	78.7%	75.7%	1.04×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.5%	72.4%	70.7%	1.02×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.2%	63.3%	61.8%	1.03×	1.58
1-3 goals	61.3%	63.3%	59.3%	1.07×	1.58
3-6 goals	52.2%	53.2%	55.0%	0.97×	1.88
3-5 goals	47.8%	48.5%	50.0%	0.97×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.1%	48.5%	45.4%	1.07×	2.06
1-2 goals	38.9%	39.2%	34.8%	1.13×	2.55
3-4 goals	38.5%	39.2%	41.0%	0.96×	2.55
4-6 goals	29.9%	30.2%	30.5%	0.99×	3.31
4-5 goals	25.4%	30.2%	25.5%	1.18×	3.31
5-6 goals	13.8%	14.8%	14.1%	1.05×	6.75
7+ goals	2.8%	2.6%	4.2%	0.61×	39.10

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel never behind	40.2%	48.4%	—	—	2.07
Arminia Bielefeld never behind	37.7%	44.0%	—	—	2.27

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.9%	50.9%	50.6%	1.01×	1.96
Even number of goals	51.1%	49.1%	49.4%	0.99×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.7%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.3%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.0%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.0%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	93.9%	92.3%	93.7%	0.99×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	92.7%	92.3%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	83.5%	82.3%	81.9%	1.01×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	78.7%	77.3%	79.7%	0.97×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	67.3%	66.3%	65.5%	1.01×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	55.0%	58.6%	59.0%	0.99×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	45.0%	41.4%	41.0%	1.01×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	32.7%	33.7%	34.5%	0.98×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	21.3%	22.7%	20.3%	1.12×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	16.5%	17.7%	18.1%	0.98×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	7.3%	7.7%	9.1%	0.85×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	6.1%	7.7%	6.3%	1.22×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.1%	97.2%	95.6%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.0%	92.4%	90.0%	1.03×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	80.3%	81.1%	78.3%	1.03×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	72.1%	72.4%	74.4%	0.97×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	57.9%	55.8%	54.3%	1.03×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	42.1%	44.2%	45.7%	0.97×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	27.9%	27.6%	25.6%	1.08×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	19.7%	18.9%	21.7%	0.87×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.0%	7.6%	10.0%	0.76×	13.15
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.9%	2.8%	4.4%	0.64×	35.57

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.0%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.7%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	66.3%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	33.7%	31.6%	—	—	3.17
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.3%	31.5%	—	—	3.18
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.0%	10.8%	—	—	9.26

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.3%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	76.1%	79.3%	—	—	1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	50.4%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	49.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	23.9%	20.7%	—	—	4.84
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.7%	16.8%	—	—	5.94

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arminia Bielefeld not to score in both halves	75.4%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Holstein Kiel not to score in both halves	73.3%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Holstein Kiel to score in both halves	26.7%	26.1%	—	—	3.84
Arminia Bielefeld to score in both halves	24.6%	21.7%	—	—	4.62

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	58.7%	58.7%	59.8%	0.98×	1.71
Only Holstein Kiel scores	18.4%	16.0%	21.1%	0.76×	6.24
Only Arminia Bielefeld scores	16.8%	16.0%	13.2%	1.22×	6.24
Neither team scores	6.1%	7.1%	6.3%	1.12×	14.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.7%	22.6%	20.9%	1.08×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	24.6%	0.92×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	16.1%	17.5%	16.6%	1.05×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	15.2%	17.5%	14.1%	1.24×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	9.3%	7.6%	9.1%	0.83×	13.13
6 or more goals	7.3%	7.6%	9.1%	0.83×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	6.1%	7.6%	6.3%	1.20×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.0%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	30.3%	35.8%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	21.7%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	12.0%	10.7%	—	—	9.34

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	50.4%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	30.9%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	18.7%	16.5%	—	—	6.06

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arminia Bielefeld not to win both halves	91.2%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Holstein Kiel not to win both halves	89.8%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Holstein Kiel to win both halves	10.2%	12.0%	—	—	8.31
Arminia Bielefeld to win both halves	8.8%	5.9%	—	—	16.88

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel to win either half	53.5%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Arminia Bielefeld to win either half	50.7%	54.2%	—	—	1.84
Arminia Bielefeld to win neither half	49.3%	45.8%	—	—	2.19
Holstein Kiel to win neither half	46.5%	45.7%	—	—	2.19

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arminia Bielefeld not to win to nil	83.2%	83.1%	86.8%	0.96×	1.20
Holstein Kiel not to win to nil	81.6%	83.1%	78.9%	1.05×	1.20
Holstein Kiel to win to nil	18.4%	16.9%	21.1%	0.80×	5.92
Arminia Bielefeld to win to nil	16.8%	16.9%	13.2%	1.28×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.8%	27.9%	26.0%	1.07×	3.59
Holstein Kiel by 1	19.9%	17.1%	21.1%	0.81×	5.86
Arminia Bielefeld by 1	19.0%	17.1%	18.0%	0.95×	5.86
Holstein Kiel by 2	11.5%	11.8%	13.0%	0.90×	8.51
Arminia Bielefeld by 2	10.6%	11.8%	7.1%	1.65×	8.51
Holstein Kiel by 3+	7.1%	7.2%	9.4%	0.76×	13.91
Arminia Bielefeld by 3+	6.1%	7.2%	6.2%	1.16×	13.91