Holstein Kiel v Bayer Leverkusen — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 22 February 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
4 – 18
On target
3 – 7
Shots in box
1 – 14
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.65
Goals − xG
-0.50 – -0.56
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Holstein Kiel win
16.3%
Draw
20.2%
Bayer Leverkusen win
63.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Holstein Kiel have scored 14 from 13.7 expected and conceded 21 from 20.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLDLDWWLL last 10
scored 14
from 13.7 xG
conceded 21
from 20.2 xG
Bayer Leverkusen are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWWLWWLDLW last 10
scored 25
from 28.0 xG
conceded 17
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.32–2.59 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Holstein Kiel 0.50 xGBayer Leverkusen 2.56 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Holstein Kiel attacking right
Bayer Leverkusen attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Bayer Leverkusen |
Jonathan Tah | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 5' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 5' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.26 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 8' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.69 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 21' |
 Holstein Kiel |
Magnus Knudsen | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Armin Gigovic |
| 24' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Amine Adli | 0.10 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 28' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Jeremie Frimpong | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 29' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Piero Hincapié | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 35' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Robert Andrich | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jeremie Frimpong |
| 36' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 44' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Amine Adli | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Florian Wirtz |
| 46' |
Holstein Kiel |
Magnus Knudsen | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Armin Gigovic |
| 48' |
Holstein Kiel |
Armin Gigovic | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | David Zec |
| 51' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Edmond Tapsoba | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Piero Hincapié |
| 52' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Edmond Tapsoba | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Patrik Schick |
| 59' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 61' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Jonathan Tah | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 75' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Florian Wirtz | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 81' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Florian Wirtz | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Emiliano Buendía |
| 83' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Victor Boniface | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Florian Wirtz |
| 92' |
Holstein Kiel |
Max Geschwill | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lewis Holtby |
Players
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florian Wirtz AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 1.03 |
| Edmond Tapsoba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jonathan Tah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Piero Hincapié DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Álex Grimaldo DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0.04 | 0.59 | 0.08 |
| Robert Andrich MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Granit Xhaka MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Matej Kovár GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patrik Schick AMC | 85 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1.10 | 0.04 | 0.79 |
| Jeremie Frimpong DMR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Amine Adli FW | 72 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Emiliano Buendía Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.58 |
| Victor Boniface Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Nordi Mukiele Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Holstein Kiel
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phil Harres FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Nicolai Remberg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Marko Ivezic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Marco Komenda DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Lasse Rosenboom DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Timon Weiner GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dominik Javorcek DML | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Armin Gigovic MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| Magnus Knudsen MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| David Zec DC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Shuto Machino FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Timo Becker Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jann-Fiete Arp Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lewis Holtby Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Andu Kelati Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Max Geschwill Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |