Hull v Everton — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 11 October 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.3%
- 1-0 9.9%
- 2-1 8.7%
- 0-1 8.7%
- 1-2 7.7%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 49.9% | Under 2.5 | 50.1% |
| BTTS yes | 54.1% | BTTS no | 45.9% |
| Hull 1+ | 75.9% | Hull 2+ | 41.5% |
| Everton 1+ | 71.3% | Everton 2+ | 35.4% |
Expected goals 1.42 – 1.25. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Form is good: 2.33 points a match from the last five.
- At home Hull average 1.16 xG a match.
- Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Everton were missing 0.84 expected goal involvements a match against 0.20.
Risk factors
- Hull have only 3 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Hull have an estimated 41.1% win probability, against 33.1% for Everton and 25.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.42 for Hull and 1.25 for Everton.
Why Hull
Form is good: 2.33 points a match from the last five. At home Hull average 1.16 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Everton were missing 0.84 expected goal involvements a match against 0.20.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 25.9%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.42 to 1.25. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Everton can win
Everton carry the stronger rating, 1593 Elo against 1549. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.
Key players
Hull's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Oliver McBurnie (0.41), Regan Slater (0.18), Mohamed Belloumi (0.16). Everton's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Thierno Barry (0.32), Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (0.32), Iliman Ndiaye (0.29).
Availability
1 of Everton's top three contributors did not start their last match.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Hull: 29% possession, 8.3 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.66 xG a match from set pieces. Everton: 48% possession, 17.4 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.25 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·
Hull are the model's most likely outcome at 41.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.3%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 70/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Everton have scored 15 from 13.7 expected and conceded 18 from 18.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.42–1.25 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-goals | 1.35–0.57 | 1-0 19% | 30% | 33% | |
| dc-xg | 1.15–1.17 | 1-1 13% | 41% | 47% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.