Hull v Tottenham Hotspur — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 12 December 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.8%
- 1-0 10.7%
- 0-1 9.9%
- 0-0 8.3%
- 2-1 8.3%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 45.4% | Under 2.5 | 54.6% |
| BTTS yes | 50.6% | BTTS no | 49.4% |
| Hull 1+ | 72.5% | Hull 2+ | 37.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur 1+ | 69.9% | Tottenham Hotspur 2+ | 33.7% |
Expected goals 1.29 – 1.20. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Hull have created 1.06 xG a match over their last five while Tottenham Hotspur have allowed 1.44.
- At home Hull average 1.28 xG a match.
- Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Tottenham Hotspur were missing 0.91 expected goal involvements a match against 0.33.
Risk factors
- Hull have only 7 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Hull have an estimated 38.7% win probability, against 34.3% for Tottenham Hotspur and 27.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.29 for Hull and 1.20 for Tottenham Hotspur.
Why Hull
Hull have created 1.06 xG a match over their last five while Tottenham Hotspur have allowed 1.44. At home Hull average 1.28 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Tottenham Hotspur were missing 0.91 expected goal involvements a match against 0.33.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 27.0%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.29 to 1.20. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Tottenham Hotspur can win
Tottenham Hotspur have created 1.39 xG a match over their last five while Hull have allowed 1.75. Away from home Tottenham Hotspur average 1.51 xG a match.
Key players
Hull's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Oliver McBurnie (0.35), Mohamed Belloumi (0.20), Sorba Thomas (0.19). Tottenham Hotspur's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Richarlison (0.37), Dominic Solanke (0.31), Sávio (0.31).
Availability
2 of Tottenham Hotspur's top three contributors did not start their last match. 45% of Tottenham Hotspur's last eleven are new to the club this window.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Hull: 32% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.18 xG a match from set pieces. Tottenham Hotspur: 60% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.42 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-23 14:52 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-23 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Hull are the model's most likely outcome at 38.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.8%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 70/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hull are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.29–1.20 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-goals | 1.74–0.50 | 1-0 18% | 39% | 33% | |
| dc-xg | 1.23–1.36 | 1-1 13% | 48% | 53% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.