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Huracán v Tigre — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 1 November 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Huracán win
39.8%
model 38.4%
Draw
31.2%
model 34.4%
Tigre win
28.9%
model 27.3%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 0-0 17.9%
  2. 1-0 16.3%
  3. 1-1 13.7%
  4. 0-1 12.9%
  5. 2-0 8.3%

Goals

Over 2.525.7% Under 2.574.3%
BTTS yes34.2% BTTS no65.8%
Huracán 1+62.3% Huracán 2+25.5%
Tigre 1+54.0% Tigre 2+18.3%

Expected goals 0.98 – 0.78. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
23/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
95%
★ Best pick
1-2 goals
Multi goal · usually 51%
58.5% fair odds 1.71
moderate signal · 2005 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Huracán not to score in both halves
Score both halves
84.3% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 829 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Huracán.

Risk factors

  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0026 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Huracán have an estimated 39.8% win probability, against 31.2% for the draw and 28.9% for Tigre. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.98 for Huracán and 0.78 for Tigre.

Why Huracán

Nothing in the data singles out Huracán.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 31.2%. A combined 1.75 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 0.98 to 0.78. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why Tigre can win

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Huracán, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Tigre, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Huracán: 63% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Tigre: 45% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Huracán are the model's most likely outcome at 39.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-0 at 17.9%. Confidence 23/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 0.98–0.78 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 0.79–0.71 0-0 23% 19% 28%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 37.8% 36.3% 30.7% 1.19× 2.75
Huracán to win 33.2% 30.4% 41.8% 0.73× 3.29
Tigre to win 28.9% 27.9% 27.6% 1.01× 3.58
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán & not both score 26.1% 25.2% 27.7% 0.91× 3.97
Draw & not both score 22.9% 21.8% 14.8% 1.47× 4.59
Tigre & not both score 22.7% 21.8% 17.1% 1.27× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 14.9% 13.3% 16.0% 0.83× 7.54
Huracán & both teams score 7.1% 8.3% 14.3% 0.58× 12.00
Tigre & both teams score 6.3% 8.3% 10.6% 0.79× 12.01
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw & under 2.5 36.0% 34.9% 28.2% 1.24× 2.87
Draw & under 3.5 36.0% 34.9% 28.2% 1.24× 2.87
Huracán & under 3.5 30.6% 30.7% 34.8% 0.88× 3.25
Tigre & under 3.5 26.9% 26.1% 23.5% 1.11× 3.84
Huracán & under 2.5 23.9% 21.6% 23.6% 0.92× 4.63
Draw & under 1.5 22.9% 21.6% 14.8% 1.46× 4.63
Tigre & under 2.5 21.0% 21.6% 14.6% 1.48× 4.63
Huracán & under 1.5 17.0% 18.0% 14.1% 1.27× 5.56
Huracán & over 1.5 16.2% 18.0% 27.8% 0.65× 5.56
Tigre & under 1.5 15.4% 18.0% 10.3% 1.75× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 14.9% 12.8% 16.0% 0.80× 7.79
Tigre & over 1.5 13.6% 12.8% 17.4% 0.74× 7.79
Huracán & over 2.5 9.3% 7.9% 18.4% 0.43× 12.63
Tigre & over 2.5 7.9% 7.9% 13.1% 0.60× 12.63
Huracán & over 3.5 2.6% 4.8% 7.2% 0.67× 20.83
Draw & over 2.5 1.9% 4.8% 2.6% 1.83× 20.83
Draw & over 3.5 1.9% 4.8% 2.6% 1.83× 20.83
Tigre & over 3.5 2.1% 4.8% 4.2% 1.14× 20.83
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán (1UP) 43.1% 38.7% — — 2.59
Tigre (1UP) 39.0% 34.3% — — 2.92
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán (2UP) 33.2% 30.3% — — 3.30
Tigre (2UP) 28.9% 25.3% — — 3.95
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 50.4% 51.7% — — 1.93
Huracán to win 2nd half 25.5% 26.0% — — 3.84
Tigre to win 2nd half 24.1% 24.4% — — 4.10
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre under 1.5 in 2nd half 93.1% 91.8% — — 1.09
Tigre under 0.5 in 2nd half 65.2% 69.4% — — 1.44
Tigre over 0.5 in 2nd half 34.8% 30.6% — — 3.27
Tigre over 1.5 in 2nd half 6.9% 8.2% — — 12.26
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán under 1.5 in 2nd half 92.5% 94.3% — — 1.06
Huracán under 0.5 in 2nd half 63.9% 63.2% — — 1.58
Huracán over 0.5 in 2nd half 36.1% 36.8% — — 2.72
Huracán over 1.5 in 2nd half 7.5% 5.7% — — 17.44
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre (+2.5) 97.5% 96.3% 95.0% 1.01× 1.04
Tigre (+1.5) 89.2% 88.5% 82.3% 1.07× 1.13
Huracán (+0.5) 71.1% 73.6% 72.4% 1.02× 1.36
Tigre (+0.5) 66.8% 68.7% 58.2% 1.18× 1.46
Huracán (-0.5) 33.2% 31.3% 41.8% 0.75× 3.19
Tigre (-0.5) 28.9% 26.4% 27.6% 0.96× 3.80
Huracán (-1.5) 10.8% 11.5% 17.7% 0.65× 8.68
Huracán (-2.5) 2.5% 3.7% 5.0% 0.73× 27.17
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre to concede 54.4% 55.9% 68.2% 0.82× 1.79
Tigre clean sheet 45.6% 44.1% 31.8% 1.39× 2.27
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre clean sheet in 1st half 71.3% 75.6% — — 1.32
Tigre to concede in 1st half 28.7% 24.4% — — 4.09
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre clean sheet in 2nd half 63.9% 61.9% — — 1.62
Tigre to concede in 2nd half 36.1% 38.1% — — 2.62
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre under 6.5 corners 88.8% 85.2% — — 1.17
Tigre under 5.5 corners 80.3% 81.4% — — 1.23
Tigre over 2.5 corners 67.6% 67.6% — — 1.48
Tigre under 4.5 corners 67.7% 67.6% — — 1.48
Tigre under 3.5 corners 51.1% 53.1% — — 1.88
Tigre over 3.5 corners 48.9% 46.9% — — 2.13
Tigre under 2.5 corners 32.4% 32.4% — — 3.09
Tigre over 4.5 corners 32.3% 32.4% — — 3.09
Tigre over 5.5 corners 19.7% 18.6% — — 5.37
Tigre over 6.5 corners 11.2% 14.8% — — 6.78
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre under 3.5 goals 99.4% 97.5% 98.9% 0.99× 1.03
Tigre under 2.5 goals 96.4% 97.5% 93.4% 1.04× 1.03
Tigre under 1.5 goals 84.0% 81.5% 78.2% 1.04× 1.23
Tigre over 0.5 goals 51.0% 53.5% 57.6% 0.93× 1.87
Tigre under 0.5 goals 49.0% 46.5% 42.4% 1.10× 2.15
Tigre over 1.5 goals 16.0% 18.5% 21.8% 0.85× 5.41
Tigre over 2.5 goals 3.6% 2.5% 6.6% 0.38× 39.79
Tigre over 3.5 goals 0.6% 2.5% 1.1% 2.20× 39.94
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre under 1.5 in 1st half 96.6% 96.1% — — 1.04
Tigre under 0.5 in 1st half 75.2% 74.7% — — 1.34
Tigre over 0.5 in 1st half 24.8% 25.3% — — 3.95
Tigre over 1.5 in 1st half 3.4% 3.9% — — 25.91
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre scores equally in both 55.2% 52.4% — — 1.91
Tigre scores more in 2nd half 27.7% 26.5% — — 3.77
Tigre scores more in 1st half 17.1% 18.0% — — 5.56
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 53.3% 51.7% 42.3% 1.22× 1.93
Huracán (away no bet) 46.7% 48.3% 57.7% 0.84× 2.07
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre even goals 62.0% 59.1% 58.4% 1.01× 1.69
Tigre odd goals 38.0% 40.9% 41.6% 0.98× 2.45
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 97.2% 97.2% — — 1.03
Both halves over 1.5 goals 2.8% 2.8% — — 36.17
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 67.7% 67.9% — — 1.47
Not both halves under 1.5 32.3% 32.1% — — 3.11
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 27.9% 25.0% — — 4.01
Huracán to score 2+ in a row 15.7% 16.1% — — 6.21
Tigre to score 2+ in a row 13.3% 12.2% — — 8.21
Either team to score 3+ in a row 5.9% 5.5% — — 18.31
Huracán to score 3+ in a row 3.4% 2.6% — — 38.91
Tigre to score 3+ in a row 2.6% 2.5% — — 39.39
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán corners (+3.5) 91.9% 89.6% — — 1.12
Huracán corners (+2.5) 86.5% 84.5% — — 1.18
Huracán corners (+1.5) 78.9% 74.8% — — 1.34
Tigre corners (+3.5) 75.7% 74.8% — — 1.34
Tigre corners (+2.5) 65.8% 65.9% — — 1.52
Tigre corners (+1.5) 54.4% 52.4% — — 1.91
Huracán corners (-1.5) 45.6% 47.6% — — 2.10
Huracán corners (-2.5) 34.2% 34.1% — — 2.93
Huracán corners (-3.5) 24.3% 25.2% — — 3.97
Tigre corners (-1.5) 21.1% 25.2% — — 3.97
Tigre corners (-2.5) 13.5% 15.5% — — 6.45
Tigre corners (-3.5) 8.1% 10.4% — — 9.60
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 51.7% 45.3% — — 2.21
9-11 corners 28.6% 31.2% — — 3.21
12+ corners 19.7% 22.6% — — 4.43
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 86.4% 83.1% — — 1.20
Under 11.5 corners 80.3% 80.7% — — 1.24
Under 10.5 corners 72.4% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 9.5 corners 62.7% 63.3% — — 1.58
Over 7.5 corners 60.0% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 8.5 corners 51.7% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 8.5 corners 48.3% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 7.5 corners 40.0% 42.1% — — 2.37
Over 9.5 corners 37.3% 36.7% — — 2.72
Over 10.5 corners 27.6% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 11.5 corners 19.7% 19.3% — — 5.17
Over 12.5 corners 13.6% 16.9% — — 5.91
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-0 22.9% 20.2% 14.8% 1.36× 4.96
1-0 17.0% 13.8% 14.1% 0.98× 7.23
0-1 15.4% 13.8% 10.3% 1.35× 7.24
1-1 13.1% 11.5% 13.5% 0.85× 8.71
2-0 6.9% 7.4% 9.6% 0.77× 13.51
0-2 5.7% 7.4% 4.4% 1.66× 13.51
2-1 4.9% 1.7% 8.7% 0.20× 58.29
0-3 1.3% 1.7% 2.1% 0.84× 58.31
0-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.6% 3.01× 58.32
1-2 4.5% 1.7% 7.1% 0.24× 58.29
1-3 1.1% 1.7% 1.9% 0.88× 58.31
1-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 5.01× 58.32
2-2 1.8% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.31
2-3 0.4% 1.7% 1.5% 1.16× 58.32
2-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 15.04× 58.32
3-0 1.8% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.31
3-1 1.3% 1.7% 3.1% 0.56× 58.31
3-2 0.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.07× 58.32
3-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 5.01× 58.32
3-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 15.04× 58.32
4-0 0.4% 1.7% 1.1% 1.50× 58.32
4-1 0.3% 1.7% 0.8% 2.15× 58.32
4-2 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 5.01× 58.32
4-3 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 7.52× 58.32
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 7.52× 58.32
Any other score 0.2% 1.7% 0.9% 1.88× 58.32
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán (2nd half DNB) 51.4% 54.4% — — 1.84
Tigre (2nd half DNB) 48.6% 45.6% — — 2.19
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán leading at HT (DNB) 54.9% 56.4% — — 1.77
Tigre leading at HT (DNB) 45.1% 43.6% — — 2.29
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán or draw (1X) 71.1% 72.1% 72.4% 1.00× 1.39
Tigre or draw (X2) 66.8% 69.6% 58.2% 1.20× 1.44
Huracán or Tigre (12) 62.2% 63.7% 69.3% 0.92× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán or draw at HT 81.6% 84.0% — — 1.19
Tigre or draw at HT 77.5% 79.6% — — 1.26
Huracán or Tigre at HT 40.9% 42.4% — — 2.36
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán or draw (1UP) 71.1% 79.5% — — 1.26
Tigre or draw (1UP) 66.8% 76.4% — — 1.31
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán or draw in 2nd half 75.9% 75.6% — — 1.32
Tigre or draw in 2nd half 74.5% 74.0% — — 1.35
Huracán or Tigre in 2nd half 49.6% 48.3% — — 2.07
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 79.2% 79.7% — — 1.26
Neither half drawn 20.8% 20.3% — — 4.93
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán (DNB) 53.4% 50.9% 60.3% 0.85× 1.96
Tigre (DNB) 46.6% 49.1% 39.7% 1.24× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán to score first 40.4% 41.6% — — 2.41
Tigre to score first 36.7% 32.7% — — 3.06
No goal scored 22.9% 22.8% — — 4.38
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 71.7% 62.4% 59.4% 1.05× 1.60
Both teams to score 28.3% 37.6% 40.6% 0.93× 2.66
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 67.8% 57.2% 52.8% 1.08× 1.75
Both score & over 2.5 15.2% 21.5% 27.3% 0.79× 4.66
Both score & under 2.5 13.1% 12.4% 13.5% 0.92× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 3.9% 4.7% 6.7% 0.70× 21.32
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 97.0% 91.6% 94.1% 0.97× 1.09
Both teams to score 2+ 3.0% 8.4% 5.9% 1.41× 11.96
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 87.2% 87.6% — — 1.14
Both teams to score in 2nd half 12.8% 12.5% — — 8.03
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 80.9% 81.4% — — 1.23
Both score 2nd half only 11.9% 10.7% — — 9.33
Both score 1st half only 6.3% 6.8% — — 14.79
Both score in both halves 0.9% 4.8% — — 21.02
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 92.8% 93.0% — — 1.08
Both teams to score by HT 7.2% 7.0% — — 14.21
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 72.7% 75.0% — — 1.33
A goal in each half 27.3% 25.0% — — 4.01
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-1 goals 55.3% 47.9% 39.0% 1.23× 2.09
2-3 goals 38.2% 35.1% 47.3% 0.74× 2.85
4-6 goals 6.5% 7.6% 13.5% 0.57× 13.14
7+ goals 0.1% 1.8% 0.5% 4.02× 54.56
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre to score exactly 0 49.0% 43.0% 42.4% 1.01× 2.33
Tigre to score exactly 1 34.9% 33.8% 35.9% 0.94× 2.96
Tigre to score exactly 2 12.5% 12.9% 15.3% 0.84× 7.76
Tigre to score 3+ 3.6% 4.6% 6.6% 0.69× 21.83
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán to score exactly 0 45.6% 37.4% 31.8% 1.18× 2.67
Huracán to score exactly 1 35.8% 35.5% 36.5% 0.97× 2.81
Huracán to score exactly 2 14.1% 14.3% 21.8% 0.66× 6.99
Huracán to score 3+ 4.5% 6.2% 10.1% 0.61× 16.11
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 59.1% 57.6% — — 1.74
Huracán leading at HT 22.5% 20.4% — — 4.91
Tigre leading at HT 18.4% 16.0% — — 6.25
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán -1: 2 66.8% 67.9% — — 1.47
Huracán -1: X 22.4% 23.5% — — 4.25
Huracán -1: 1 10.8% 13.8% — — 7.22
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre (0:1) 66.8% 65.2% 58.2% 1.12× 1.53
Draw (0:1) 22.4% 24.2% 24.3% 1.00× 4.13
Huracán (0:1) 10.8% 13.7% 17.7% 0.77× 7.31
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre (0:2) 89.2% 87.1% 82.3% 1.06× 1.15
Draw (0:2) 8.3% 7.7% 12.8% 0.60× 13.05
Huracán (0:2) 2.5% 3.7% 5.0% 0.75× 26.75
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre (0:3) 97.5% 96.6% 95.0% 1.02× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 2.1% 2.4% 3.4% 0.70× 42.05
Huracán (0:3) 0.5% 2.4% 1.7% 1.39× 42.12
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre (0:4) 99.5% 98.1% 98.3% 1.00× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.4% 1.2% 1.3% 0.97× 81.93
Huracán (0:4) 0.1% 1.2% 0.6% 2.14× 81.96
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán (1:0) 71.1% 72.4% 72.4% 1.00× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 20.3% 21.7% 18.6% 1.17× 4.62
Tigre (1:0) 8.7% 6.9% 9.1% 0.76× 14.48
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán (2:0) 91.3% 94.0% 90.9% 1.03× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 6.8% 6.4% 6.3% 1.02× 15.66
Tigre (2:0) 1.9% 2.3% 3.0% 0.77× 43.81
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 38.8% 38.8% — — 2.58
Halves equal 37.1% 37.1% — — 2.69
1st half highest scoring 24.1% 24.5% — — 4.08
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán to concede 51.0% 53.1% 57.6% 0.92× 1.88
Huracán clean sheet 49.0% 46.9% 42.4% 1.11× 2.13
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán clean sheet in 1st half 75.2% 76.8% — — 1.30
Huracán to concede in 1st half 24.8% 23.2% — — 4.32
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán clean sheet in 2nd half 65.2% 66.5% — — 1.50
Huracán to concede in 2nd half 34.8% 33.5% — — 2.98
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán over 2.5 corners 81.8% 81.0% — — 1.24
Huracán under 6.5 corners 74.8% 71.9% — — 1.39
Huracán over 3.5 corners 67.4% 66.7% — — 1.50
Huracán under 5.5 corners 62.8% 62.3% — — 1.61
Huracán over 4.5 corners 51.7% 52.6% — — 1.90
Huracán under 4.5 corners 48.3% 47.4% — — 2.11
Huracán over 5.5 corners 37.2% 37.7% — — 2.65
Huracán under 3.5 corners 32.6% 33.3% — — 3.01
Huracán over 6.5 corners 25.2% 28.1% — — 3.56
Huracán under 2.5 corners 18.2% 19.0% — — 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán under 3.5 goals 99.1% 96.4% 97.1% 0.99× 1.04
Huracán under 2.5 goals 95.5% 96.4% 89.9% 1.07× 1.04
Huracán under 1.5 goals 81.4% 82.2% 68.2% 1.21× 1.22
Huracán over 0.5 goals 54.4% 53.2% 68.2% 0.78× 1.88
Huracán under 0.5 goals 45.6% 46.8% 31.8% 1.47× 2.14
Huracán over 1.5 goals 18.6% 17.8% 31.8% 0.56× 5.62
Huracán over 2.5 goals 4.5% 3.6% 10.1% 0.36× 27.49
Huracán over 3.5 goals 0.9% 3.6% 2.9% 1.27× 27.65
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán under 1.5 in 1st half 95.4% 96.6% — — 1.04
Huracán under 0.5 in 1st half 71.3% 79.1% — — 1.26
Huracán over 0.5 in 1st half 28.7% 20.9% — — 4.80
Huracán over 1.5 in 1st half 4.6% 3.4% — — 29.33
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán scores equally in both 52.7% 58.9% — — 1.70
Huracán scores more in 2nd half 27.6% 27.9% — — 3.59
Huracán scores more in 1st half 19.7% 15.7% — — 6.37
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 56.7% 56.4% 52.6% 1.07× 1.77
Tigre (home no bet) 43.3% 43.6% 47.4% 0.92× 2.29
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán even goals 60.4% 56.0% 55.6% 1.01× 1.79
Huracán odd goals 39.6% 44.0% 44.4% 0.99× 2.27
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 53.7% 52.4% — — 1.91
HT 1-0 18.0% 18.6% — — 5.38
HT 0-1 15.2% 18.5% — — 5.40
HT 1-1 5.3% 6.9% — — 14.58
HT 2-0 3.1% 2.4% — — 42.22
HT 0-2 2.2% 2.4% — — 42.28
HT 2-1 0.9% 2.4% — — 42.36
HT 1-2 0.7% 2.4% — — 42.37
Any other HT score 0.8% 2.4% — — 42.37
HT 2-2 0.1% 2.4% — — 42.41
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 30.3% 32.7% — — 3.06
Huracán at HT / Huracán at FT 17.6% 16.8% — — 5.96
Draw at HT / Huracán at FT 14.8% 12.7% — — 7.88
Tigre at HT / Tigre at FT 14.1% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / Tigre at FT 14.0% 12.7% — — 7.89
Huracán at HT / Draw at FT 4.0% 3.5% — — 28.89
Tigre at HT / Draw at FT 3.5% 3.5% — — 28.91
Huracán at HT / Tigre at FT 0.9% 3.4% — — 29.00
Tigre at HT / Huracán at FT 0.8% 3.4% — — 29.01
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán to score last 40.4% 39.9% — — 2.51
Tigre to score last 36.7% 38.6% — — 2.59
No goal scored 22.9% 25.7% — — 3.90
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 77.1% 78.0% — — 1.28
Huracán to lead by 1 at any time 43.1% 39.2% — — 2.55
Tigre to lead by 1 at any time 39.0% 34.9% — — 2.87
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 23.8% 19.6% — — 5.12
Huracán to lead by 2 at any time 13.1% 10.6% — — 9.42
Tigre to lead by 2 at any time 10.8% 10.6% — — 9.47
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 5.2% 6.6% — — 15.14
Huracán to lead by 3 at any time 3.0% 1.6% — — 62.38
Tigre to lead by 3 at any time 2.2% 1.6% — — 63.10
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán most corners 57.7% 55.6% — — 1.80
Tigre most corners 30.9% 34.4% — — 2.91
Corners level 11.4% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 76.7% 78.7% 84.3% 0.93× 1.27
1-4 goals 75.2% 78.7% 79.9% 0.98× 1.27
1-3 goals 70.6% 72.3% 71.5% 1.01× 1.38
1-2 goals 58.0% 59.1% 51.4% 1.15× 1.69
2-6 goals 44.7% 43.6% 60.7% 0.72× 2.29
2-5 goals 44.3% 43.6% 60.1% 0.73× 2.29
2-4 goals 42.9% 43.6% 55.8% 0.78× 2.29
2-3 goals 38.2% 39.2% 47.3% 0.83× 2.55
3-6 goals 19.0% 18.8% 33.5% 0.56× 5.31
3-5 goals 18.6% 18.8% 33.0% 0.57× 5.31
3-4 goals 17.2% 18.8% 28.6% 0.66× 5.31
4-6 goals 6.5% 8.9% 13.5% 0.66× 11.27
4-5 goals 6.1% 8.9% 12.9% 0.69× 11.27
5-6 goals 1.8% 2.6% 5.0% 0.51× 39.19
7+ goals 0.1% 2.5% 0.5% 5.58× 39.27
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huracán never behind 38.1% 44.2% — — 2.26
Tigre never behind 34.0% 36.4% — — 2.75
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 46.4% 50.9% 48.9% 1.04× 1.97
Even number of goals 53.6% 49.1% 51.1% 0.96× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 64.6% 61.8% — — 1.62
Odd goals in 1st half 35.4% 38.2% — — 2.62
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 59.1% 61.7% — — 1.62
Odd goals in 2nd half 40.9% 38.3% — — 2.61
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 99.6% 95.4% 99.0% 0.96× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 98.1% 95.4% 94.6% 1.01× 1.05
Under 3.5 goals 93.4% 92.3% 86.2% 1.07× 1.08
Under 2.5 goals 80.9% 82.3% 66.1% 1.24× 1.22
Over 0.5 goals 77.1% 77.3% 85.2% 0.91× 1.29
Under 1.5 goals 55.3% 58.6% 39.0% 1.50× 1.71
Over 1.5 goals 44.7% 41.4% 61.0% 0.68× 2.42
Under 0.5 goals 22.9% 22.7% 14.8% 1.53× 4.40
Over 2.5 goals 19.1% 17.7% 33.9% 0.52× 5.65
Over 3.5 goals 6.6% 7.7% 13.8% 0.56× 12.94
Over 4.5 goals 1.9% 4.6% 5.4% 0.85× 21.85
Over 5.5 goals 0.4% 4.6% 1.0% 4.46× 21.87
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.9% 97.2% 99.5% 0.98× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 99.6% 97.2% 98.9% 0.98× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 98.1% 97.2% 94.1% 1.03× 1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 92.5% 92.4% 82.7% 1.12× 1.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 74.3% 72.4% 53.5% 1.35× 1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 25.7% 27.6% 46.5% 0.59× 3.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 7.5% 7.6% 17.3% 0.44× 13.19
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 1.9% 2.8% 5.9% 0.48× 35.64
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 0.5% 2.8% 1.1% 2.61× 35.68
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.1% 2.8% 0.5% 6.11× 35.69
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 97.5% 97.9% — — 1.02
Under 1.5 in 1st half 86.9% 89.0% — — 1.12
Under 0.5 in 1st half 53.7% 53.4% — — 1.87
Over 0.5 in 1st half 46.3% 46.6% — — 2.15
Over 1.5 in 1st half 13.1% 11.0% — — 9.11
Over 2.5 in 1st half 2.5% 2.1% — — 48.10
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 94.1% 91.0% — — 1.10
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 77.9% 79.6% — — 1.26
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 58.2% 55.3% — — 1.81
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 41.8% 44.7% — — 2.24
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 22.1% 20.4% — — 4.90
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 5.9% 9.0% — — 11.09
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre not to score in both halves 91.4% 90.3% — — 1.11
Huracán not to score in both halves 89.6% 85.8% — — 1.17
Huracán to score in both halves 10.4% 14.2% — — 7.03
Tigre to score in both halves 8.6% 9.7% — — 10.33
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 28.3% 26.1% 40.6% 0.64× 3.83
Only Huracán scores 26.1% 26.1% 27.7% 0.94× 3.84
Neither team scores 22.9% 22.3% 14.8% 1.50× 4.49
Only Tigre scores 22.7% 22.3% 17.1% 1.30× 4.49
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 1 goals 32.4% 25.4% 24.3% 1.05× 3.93
Exactly 2 goals 25.7% 24.9% 27.3% 0.91× 4.02
Exactly 0 goals 22.9% 22.6% 14.8% 1.52× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 12.5% 12.1% 20.2% 0.60× 8.26
Exactly 4 goals 4.7% 4.5% 8.6% 0.52× 22.33
Exactly 5 goals 1.4% 4.5% 4.4% 1.00× 22.38
6 or more goals 0.4% 4.5% 1.0% 4.35× 22.39
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 53.7% 52.4% — — 1.91
1 goal in 1st half 33.2% 35.7% — — 2.80
2 goals in 1st half 10.5% 10.8% — — 9.26
3+ goals in 1st half 2.5% 2.1% — — 48.10
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 2nd half 41.8% 44.6% — — 2.24
1 goal in 2nd half 36.1% 39.7% — — 2.52
2+ goals in 2nd half 22.1% 22.9% — — 4.37
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre not to win both halves 95.5% 97.2% — — 1.03
Huracán not to win both halves 94.2% 94.2% — — 1.06
Huracán to win both halves 5.8% 5.8% — — 17.24
Tigre to win both halves 4.5% 2.8% — — 35.39
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre to win neither half 62.0% 65.0% — — 1.54
Huracán to win neither half 57.8% 59.0% — — 1.69
Huracán to win either half 42.2% 41.0% — — 2.44
Tigre to win either half 38.0% 35.0% — — 2.85
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre not to win to nil 77.3% 78.1% 82.9% 0.94× 1.28
Huracán not to win to nil 73.9% 75.3% 72.3% 1.04× 1.33
Huracán to win to nil 26.1% 24.7% 27.7% 0.89× 4.05
Tigre to win to nil 22.7% 21.9% 17.1% 1.28× 4.57
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 37.8% 34.8% 30.7% 1.13× 2.88
Huracán by 1 22.4% 24.1% 24.3% 0.99× 4.15
Tigre by 1 20.3% 24.1% 18.6% 1.30× 4.15
Huracán by 2 8.3% 7.2% 12.8% 0.56× 13.91
Tigre by 2 6.8% 7.2% 6.3% 1.15× 13.91
Huracán by 3+ 2.5% 2.7% 5.0% 0.54× 36.89
Tigre by 3+ 1.9% 2.7% 3.0% 0.91× 36.91
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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