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Iberia 1999 v Dila Gori — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 17 September 2026 · GEO-Erovnuli Liga · 2627

GEO-Erovnuli Liga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Iberia 1999 win
39.1%
model 38.3%
Draw
28.2%
model 28.6%
Dila Gori win
32.7%
model 33.1%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (7,697 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 13.6%
  2. 1-0 9.1%
  3. 0-0 8.6%
  4. 2-1 8.5%
  5. 0-1 8.3%

Goals

Over 2.547.7% Under 2.552.3%
BTTS yes53.6% BTTS no46.4%
Iberia 1999 1+74.0% Iberia 1999 2+39.0%
Dila Gori 1+70.9% Dila Gori 2+35.0%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.24. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
27/100
Data quality
30/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Under 2.5 goals
Over/Under · usually 48%
51.8% fair odds 1.93
moderate signal · 12832 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Dila Gori (+1.5)
Asian handicap · usually 82%
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 13600 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 30/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • Iberia 1999 have only 1 matches on record.
  • Dila Gori have only 1 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Iberia 1999 have an estimated 39.1% win probability, against 32.7% for Dila Gori and 28.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.35 for Iberia 1999 and 1.24 for Dila Gori.

Why Iberia 1999

Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.2%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.35 to 1.24.

Why Dila Gori can win

Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Dila Gori average 1.35 xG a match.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Iberia 1999, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Dila Gori, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Iberia 1999: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Dila Gori: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Iberia 1999 are the model's most likely outcome at 39.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.6%. Confidence 27/100, data quality 30/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.35–1.24 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.20–1.13 1-1 14% 41% 49%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 to win 38.3% 37.7% 40.3% 0.93× 2.66
Dila Gori to win 33.1% 31.5% 34.3% 0.92× 3.17
Draw 28.6% 27.1% 25.7% 1.06× 3.69
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 & not both score 20.4% 21.7% 21.3% 1.02× 4.61
Draw & both teams score 20.0% 18.1% 18.0% 1.01× 5.52
Iberia 1999 & both teams score 17.9% 18.1% 19.3% 0.94× 5.52
Dila Gori & not both score 17.4% 18.1% 17.0% 1.07× 5.52
Dila Gori & both teams score 15.7% 18.1% 17.7% 1.03× 5.52
Draw & not both score 8.6% 7.6% 8.0% 0.96× 13.07
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 & over 1.5 29.2% 26.4% 31.3% 0.84× 3.79
Iberia 1999 & under 3.5 27.5% 26.4% 30.3% 0.87× 3.79
Dila Gori & over 1.5 24.8% 21.8% 25.0% 0.87× 4.58
Dila Gori & under 3.5 24.2% 21.8% 24.3% 0.90× 4.58
Iberia 1999 & over 2.5 22.4% 21.8% 25.0% 0.87× 4.58
Draw & under 2.5 22.3% 21.8% 19.3% 1.13× 4.58
Draw & under 3.5 22.3% 21.8% 19.3% 1.13× 4.58
Draw & over 1.5 20.0% 17.7% 18.0% 0.98× 5.64
Dila Gori & over 2.5 19.1% 17.7% 20.7% 0.86× 5.64
Iberia 1999 & under 2.5 16.0% 17.7% 15.7% 1.13× 5.64
Dila Gori & under 2.5 14.0% 12.4% 14.0% 0.89× 8.05
Iberia 1999 & over 3.5 10.8% 12.4% 10.3% 1.20× 8.06
Iberia 1999 & under 1.5 9.1% 7.6% 9.3% 0.81× 13.20
Draw & under 1.5 8.6% 7.6% 8.0% 0.95× 13.20
Draw & over 2.5 6.3% 7.6% 6.7% 1.14× 13.21
Draw & over 3.5 6.3% 7.6% 6.7% 1.14× 13.21
Dila Gori & under 1.5 8.3% 7.6% 9.7% 0.78× 13.20
Dila Gori & over 3.5 8.9% 7.6% 10.3% 0.73× 13.20
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 (1UP) 54.7% 54.4% 1.84
Dila Gori (1UP) 50.2% 54.1% 1.85
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 (2UP) 38.3% 38.2% 2.62
Dila Gori (2UP) 33.1% 35.6% 2.81
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 37.3% 36.5% 2.74
Iberia 1999 to win 2nd half 32.1% 32.8% 3.05
Dila Gori to win 2nd half 30.6% 32.8% 3.05
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dila Gori under 1.5 in 2nd half 83.0% 83.2% 1.20
Dila Gori over 0.5 in 2nd half 52.4% 50.1% 2.00
Dila Gori under 0.5 in 2nd half 47.6% 49.9% 2.00
Dila Gori over 1.5 in 2nd half 17.0% 16.8% 5.95
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 under 1.5 in 2nd half 82.0% 79.1% 1.27
Iberia 1999 over 0.5 in 2nd half 53.6% 54.2% 1.85
Iberia 1999 under 0.5 in 2nd half 46.4% 45.8% 2.18
Iberia 1999 over 1.5 in 2nd half 18.0% 20.9% 4.78
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dila Gori (+2.5) 93.5% 92.3% 91.0% 1.01× 1.08
Dila Gori (+1.5) 82.0% 83.2% 81.7% 1.02× 1.20
Iberia 1999 (+0.5) 66.9% 67.9% 65.7% 1.03× 1.47
Dila Gori (+0.5) 61.7% 62.7% 59.7% 1.05× 1.60
Iberia 1999 (-0.5) 38.3% 37.3% 40.3% 0.93× 2.68
Dila Gori (-0.5) 33.1% 32.1% 34.3% 0.94× 3.12
Iberia 1999 (-1.5) 18.0% 16.8% 18.3% 0.92× 5.95
Iberia 1999 (-2.5) 6.5% 7.7% 9.0% 0.86× 12.98
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dila Gori to concede 74.0% 75.6% 75.3% 1.00× 1.32
Dila Gori clean sheet 26.0% 24.4% 24.7% 0.99× 4.10
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dila Gori clean sheet in 1st half 56.0% 57.3% 1.75
Dila Gori to concede in 1st half 44.0% 42.7% 2.34
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dila Gori to concede in 2nd half 53.6% 54.6% 1.83
Dila Gori clean sheet in 2nd half 46.4% 45.4% 2.20
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dila Gori under 3.5 goals 96.3% 97.3% 94.7% 1.03× 1.03
Dila Gori under 2.5 goals 87.2% 87.1% 86.3% 1.01× 1.15
Dila Gori over 0.5 goals 71.0% 71.6% 71.0% 1.01× 1.40
Dila Gori under 1.5 goals 65.0% 63.6% 66.0% 0.96× 1.57
Dila Gori over 1.5 goals 35.0% 36.4% 34.0% 1.07× 2.75
Dila Gori under 0.5 goals 29.0% 28.4% 29.0% 0.98× 3.52
Dila Gori over 2.5 goals 12.8% 12.9% 13.7% 0.94× 7.76
Dila Gori over 3.5 goals 3.7% 2.7% 5.3% 0.51× 37.10
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dila Gori under 1.5 in 1st half 91.1% 93.8% 1.07
Dila Gori under 0.5 in 1st half 61.0% 62.3% 1.61
Dila Gori over 0.5 in 1st half 39.0% 37.7% 2.65
Dila Gori over 1.5 in 1st half 8.9% 6.2% 16.08
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dila Gori scores equally in both 40.7% 42.1% 2.38
Dila Gori scores more in 2nd half 37.4% 38.1% 2.63
Dila Gori scores more in 1st half 21.9% 23.5% 4.25
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 (away no bet) 57.3% 58.6% 61.1% 0.96× 1.71
Draw (away no bet) 42.7% 41.4% 38.9% 1.06× 2.42
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dila Gori even goals 54.2% 53.6% 54.3% 0.99× 1.87
Dila Gori odd goals 45.8% 46.4% 45.7% 1.02× 2.16
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 87.0% 86.8% 1.15
Both halves over 1.5 goals 13.0% 13.2% 7.59
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 61.3% 64.4% 1.55
Both halves under 1.5 goals 38.7% 35.6% 2.81
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 52.6% 51.4% 1.94
Iberia 1999 to score 2+ in a row 31.1% 32.0% 3.13
Dila Gori to score 2+ in a row 27.1% 26.7% 3.75
Either team to score 3+ in a row 17.4% 17.0% 5.88
Iberia 1999 to score 3+ in a row 9.8% 7.8% 12.87
Dila Gori to score 3+ in a row 7.8% 7.7% 12.93
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 13.6% 11.2% 11.7% 0.96× 8.91
0-0 8.6% 7.4% 8.0% 0.93× 13.45
0-1 8.3% 7.4% 9.7% 0.77× 13.45
0-2 5.8% 7.4% 4.7% 1.59× 13.45
1-0 9.1% 7.4% 9.3% 0.80× 13.45
1-2 7.8% 7.4% 9.0% 0.83× 13.45
2-0 6.9% 7.4% 6.7% 1.12× 13.45
2-1 8.5% 7.4% 11.3% 0.66× 13.45
2-2 5.2% 7.4% 6.0% 1.24× 13.45
0-3 2.4% 1.7% 2.0% 0.86× 58.34
0-4 0.7% 1.7% 1.3% 1.29× 58.35
1-3 3.2% 1.7% 3.0% 0.57× 58.34
1-4 1.0% 1.7% 2.3% 0.73× 58.35
2-3 2.2% 1.7% 2.7% 0.64× 58.34
2-4 0.7% 1.7% 1.3% 1.29× 58.35
3-0 3.1% 1.7% 4.0% 0.43× 58.34
3-1 3.8% 1.7% 3.0% 0.57× 58.34
3-2 2.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.03× 58.34
3-3 1.0% 1.7% 1.0% 1.71× 58.35
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.7% 2.57× 58.35
4-0 1.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.03× 58.35
4-1 1.3% 1.7% 2.0% 0.86× 58.34
4-2 0.8% 1.7% 0.3% 5.14× 58.35
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.71× 58.35
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 5.14× 58.35
Any other score 2.1% 1.7% 3.3% 0.51× 58.34
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 (2nd half DNB) 51.2% 51.2% 1.95
Dila Gori (2nd half DNB) 48.8% 48.8% 2.05
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 leading at HT (DNB) 55.1% 56.8% 1.76
Dila Gori leading at HT (DNB) 44.9% 43.2% 2.32
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 or Dila Gori (12) 71.4% 72.9% 74.3% 0.98× 1.37
Iberia 1999 or draw (1X) 66.9% 68.5% 65.7% 1.04× 1.46
Dila Gori or draw (X2) 61.7% 62.3% 59.7% 1.04× 1.60
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 or draw at HT 75.3% 76.7% 1.30
Dila Gori or draw at HT 69.7% 67.2% 1.49
Iberia 1999 or Dila Gori at HT 55.0% 54.0% 1.85
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 or draw (1UP) 66.9% 71.3% 1.40
Dila Gori or draw (1UP) 61.7% 70.1% 1.43
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 or draw in 2nd half 69.4% 67.2% 1.49
Dila Gori or draw in 2nd half 67.9% 67.2% 1.49
Iberia 1999 or Dila Gori in 2nd half 62.7% 63.5% 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 64.4% 60.5% 1.65
Neither half drawn 35.6% 39.5% 2.53
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 (DNB) 53.7% 51.7% 54.0% 0.96× 1.94
Dila Gori (DNB) 46.3% 48.3% 46.0% 1.05× 2.07
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 to score first 47.7% 46.1% 2.17
Dila Gori to score first 43.7% 43.8% 2.28
No goal scored 8.6% 6.4% 15.60
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 53.6% 51.6% 54.3% 0.95× 1.94
Not both teams to score 46.4% 48.4% 45.7% 1.06× 2.07
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 39.9% 38.0% 43.0% 0.88× 2.63
Not both score & under 2.5 38.6% 38.0% 37.0% 1.03× 2.63
Both score & under 2.5 13.6% 11.9% 11.7% 1.02× 8.41
Not both score & over 2.5 7.8% 8.4% 9.0% 0.94× 11.85
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 86.3% 85.7% 87.0% 0.99× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 13.7% 14.3% 13.0% 1.10× 7.00
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 71.6% 70.8% 1.41
Both teams to score in 2nd half 28.4% 29.2% 3.43
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 59.0% 58.0% 1.73
Both score 2nd half only 23.6% 23.4% 4.27
Both score 1st half only 12.5% 11.9% 8.42
Both score in both halves 4.8% 4.9% 20.49
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 82.7% 82.7% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 17.3% 17.3% 5.77
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 51.8% 52.5% 1.91
A half without a goal 48.2% 47.5% 2.10
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 48.0% 46.5% 47.3% 0.98× 2.15
0-1 goals 26.0% 27.0% 26.3% 1.03× 3.71
4-6 goals 24.4% 23.5% 23.7% 0.99× 4.25
7+ goals 1.7% 2.0% 3.3% 0.60× 49.76
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dila Gori to score exactly 1 35.9% 36.0% 37.3% 0.96× 2.78
Dila Gori to score exactly 0 29.0% 27.4% 29.0% 0.95× 3.65
Dila Gori to score exactly 2 22.2% 23.3% 20.7% 1.13× 4.30
Dila Gori to score 3+ 12.8% 13.0% 13.7% 0.95× 7.69
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 to score exactly 1 35.0% 36.6% 34.3% 1.07× 2.73
Iberia 1999 to score exactly 0 26.0% 26.4% 24.7% 1.07× 3.78
Iberia 1999 to score exactly 2 23.6% 22.9% 26.7% 0.86× 4.38
Iberia 1999 to score 3+ 15.4% 18.1% 15.0% 1.21× 5.51
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 45.0% 46.0% 2.17
Iberia 1999 leading at HT 30.3% 32.8% 3.05
Dila Gori leading at HT 24.7% 23.3% 4.30
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 -1: 2 61.7% 61.4% 1.63
Iberia 1999 -1: X 20.3% 23.3% 4.29
Iberia 1999 -1: 1 18.0% 17.8% 5.61
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dila Gori (0:1) 61.7% 60.1% 59.7% 1.01× 1.67
Draw (0:1) 20.3% 23.6% 22.3% 1.06× 4.24
Iberia 1999 (0:1) 18.0% 18.2% 18.3% 0.99× 5.49
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dila Gori (0:2) 82.0% 82.9% 81.7% 1.02× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 11.5% 11.4% 9.7% 1.17× 8.81
Iberia 1999 (0:2) 6.5% 7.7% 9.0% 0.86× 12.97
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dila Gori (0:3) 93.5% 92.6% 91.0% 1.02× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.6% 2.6% 5.7% 0.45× 39.14
Iberia 1999 (0:3) 1.9% 2.6% 3.7% 0.70× 39.18
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dila Gori (0:4) 98.1% 97.7% 96.3% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.4% 1.4% 2.3% 0.61× 70.72
Iberia 1999 (0:4) 0.5% 1.4% 1.7% 0.85× 70.76
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 (1:0) 66.9% 69.0% 65.7% 1.05× 1.45
Draw (1:0) 18.5% 17.3% 21.0% 0.83× 5.77
Dila Gori (1:0) 14.6% 12.6% 13.7% 0.92× 7.97
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 (2:0) 85.4% 88.0% 86.3% 1.02× 1.14
Draw (2:0) 9.7% 6.6% 8.3% 0.79× 15.10
Dila Gori (2:0) 4.9% 2.8% 5.7% 0.49× 35.87
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 46.4% 48.2% 2.07
Halves equal 27.3% 26.2% 3.82
1st half highest scoring 26.3% 26.2% 3.82
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 to concede 71.0% 72.0% 71.0% 1.01× 1.39
Iberia 1999 clean sheet 29.0% 28.0% 29.0% 0.97× 3.57
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 clean sheet in 1st half 61.0% 62.1% 1.61
Iberia 1999 to concede in 1st half 39.0% 37.9% 2.64
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 clean sheet in 2nd half 47.6% 50.4% 1.99
Iberia 1999 to concede in 2nd half 52.4% 49.6% 2.02
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 under 3.5 goals 95.2% 96.6% 93.7% 1.03× 1.04
Iberia 1999 under 2.5 goals 84.6% 82.3% 85.0% 0.97× 1.22
Iberia 1999 over 0.5 goals 74.0% 73.1% 75.3% 0.97× 1.37
Iberia 1999 under 1.5 goals 61.0% 62.4% 58.7% 1.06× 1.60
Iberia 1999 over 1.5 goals 39.0% 37.6% 41.3% 0.91× 2.66
Iberia 1999 under 0.5 goals 26.0% 26.9% 24.7% 1.09× 3.71
Iberia 1999 over 2.5 goals 15.4% 17.7% 15.0% 1.18× 5.66
Iberia 1999 over 3.5 goals 4.8% 3.4% 6.3% 0.54× 29.37
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 under 1.5 in 1st half 88.5% 87.7% 1.14
Iberia 1999 under 0.5 in 1st half 56.0% 57.4% 1.74
Iberia 1999 over 0.5 in 1st half 44.0% 42.6% 2.35
Iberia 1999 over 1.5 in 1st half 11.5% 12.3% 8.15
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 scores equally in both 38.9% 37.2% 2.69
Iberia 1999 scores more in 2nd half 36.3% 37.1% 2.69
Iberia 1999 scores more in 1st half 24.8% 23.2% 4.31
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dila Gori (home no bet) 53.7% 52.0% 57.2% 0.91× 1.92
Draw (home no bet) 46.3% 48.0% 42.8% 1.12× 2.08
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 even goals 53.4% 50.9% 55.7% 0.91× 1.96
Iberia 1999 odd goals 46.6% 49.1% 44.3% 1.11× 2.04
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 34.3% 32.2% 3.10
HT 1-0 19.6% 19.9% 5.02
HT 0-1 16.7% 19.9% 5.03
HT 1-1 10.0% 8.0% 12.52
HT 2-0 5.7% 8.0% 12.56
HT 0-2 4.2% 2.5% 40.39
Any other HT score 3.5% 2.5% 40.42
HT 2-1 2.8% 2.5% 40.45
HT 1-2 2.4% 2.5% 40.47
HT 2-2 0.7% 2.5% 40.55
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 at HT / Iberia 1999 at FT 22.3% 20.9% 4.78
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 18.0% 17.3% 5.78
Dila Gori at HT / Dila Gori at FT 17.6% 17.3% 5.78
Draw at HT / Iberia 1999 at FT 13.9% 12.0% 8.32
Draw at HT / Dila Gori at FT 13.2% 12.0% 8.32
Iberia 1999 at HT / Draw at FT 5.7% 6.5% 15.50
Dila Gori at HT / Draw at FT 5.0% 3.6% 27.50
Iberia 1999 at HT / Dila Gori at FT 2.3% 3.6% 27.57
Dila Gori at HT / Iberia 1999 at FT 2.1% 3.6% 27.58
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 to score last 47.7% 46.2% 2.16
Dila Gori to score last 43.7% 43.5% 2.30
No goal scored 8.6% 6.4% 15.60
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 91.4% 93.6% 1.07
Iberia 1999 to lead by 1 at any time 54.7% 51.8% 1.93
Dila Gori to lead by 1 at any time 50.2% 51.7% 1.93
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 43.7% 41.8% 2.39
Iberia 1999 to lead by 2 at any time 23.8% 21.4% 4.67
Dila Gori to lead by 2 at any time 20.0% 21.3% 4.69
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 14.5% 11.1% 9.04
Iberia 1999 to lead by 3 at any time 8.2% 7.4% 13.46
Dila Gori to lead by 3 at any time 6.3% 7.4% 13.51
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.6% 87.1% 86.7% 1.00× 1.15
1-4 goals 79.4% 77.9% 79.0% 0.99× 1.28
2-6 goals 72.4% 72.2% 70.7% 1.02× 1.39
2-5 goals 69.2% 68.2% 68.3% 1.00× 1.47
1-3 goals 65.3% 68.2% 65.7% 1.04× 1.47
2-4 goals 62.0% 62.7% 60.7% 1.03× 1.60
2-3 goals 48.0% 47.4% 47.3% 1.00× 2.11
3-6 goals 46.1% 47.4% 48.7% 0.97× 2.11
1-2 goals 43.6% 43.6% 40.7% 1.07× 2.30
3-5 goals 43.0% 43.6% 46.3% 0.94× 2.30
3-4 goals 35.7% 39.0% 38.7% 1.01× 2.56
4-6 goals 24.4% 23.7% 23.7% 1.00× 4.22
4-5 goals 21.3% 23.7% 21.3% 1.11× 4.22
5-6 goals 10.4% 13.5% 10.3% 1.30× 7.42
7+ goals 1.7% 2.3% 3.3% 0.68× 44.26
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dila Gori never behind 36.6% 47.3% 2.12
Iberia 1999 never behind 41.2% 47.1% 2.13
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 52.4% 50.1% 46.3% 1.08× 2.00
Odd number of goals 47.6% 49.9% 53.7% 0.93× 2.00
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 56.2% 55.1% 1.82
Odd goals in 1st half 43.8% 44.9% 2.23
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 53.2% 51.6% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.8% 48.4% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 95.2% 96.0% 94.3% 1.02× 1.04
Over 0.5 goals 91.4% 92.3% 92.0% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 88.0% 87.8% 86.7% 1.01× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 74.0% 72.4% 73.7% 0.98× 1.38
Under 3.5 goals 74.0% 72.4% 73.3% 0.99× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 52.3% 51.8% 48.3% 1.07× 1.93
Over 2.5 goals 47.8% 48.2% 51.7% 0.93× 2.08
Under 1.5 goals 26.0% 27.6% 26.3% 1.05× 3.62
Over 3.5 goals 26.0% 27.6% 26.7% 1.04× 3.62
Over 4.5 goals 12.0% 12.2% 13.3% 0.91× 8.21
Under 0.5 goals 8.6% 7.7% 8.0% 0.97× 12.91
Over 5.5 goals 4.8% 4.0% 5.7% 0.70× 25.18
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.3% 97.3% 96.6% 1.01× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 94.8% 92.0% 93.9% 0.98× 1.09
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 86.0% 86.6% 84.6% 1.02× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 66.7% 67.1% 64.4% 1.04× 1.49
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 64.8% 62.3% 66.2% 0.94× 1.60
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 35.2% 37.7% 33.8% 1.12× 2.65
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 33.3% 32.9% 35.6% 0.93× 3.04
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 14.0% 13.4% 15.4% 0.87× 7.48
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 5.2% 8.0% 6.1% 1.30× 12.52
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.7% 2.7% 3.4% 0.80× 36.71
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 90.6% 91.8% 1.09
Under 1.5 in 1st half 70.7% 73.8% 1.36
Over 0.5 in 1st half 65.7% 67.0% 1.49
Under 0.5 in 1st half 34.3% 33.0% 3.03
Over 1.5 in 1st half 29.3% 26.2% 3.81
Over 2.5 in 1st half 9.4% 8.2% 12.21
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 80.6% 82.5% 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 77.5% 80.0% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 55.1% 56.9% 1.76
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 44.9% 43.1% 2.32
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 22.5% 20.0% 5.00
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 19.4% 17.5% 5.71
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dila Gori not to score in both halves 79.6% 75.9% 1.32
Iberia 1999 not to score in both halves 76.4% 75.8% 1.32
Iberia 1999 to score in both halves 23.6% 24.2% 4.13
Dila Gori to score in both halves 20.4% 24.1% 4.14
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 53.6% 54.2% 54.3% 1.00× 1.84
Only Iberia 1999 scores 20.4% 21.5% 21.3% 1.01× 4.64
Only Dila Gori scores 17.4% 16.9% 17.0% 0.99× 5.93
Neither team scores 8.6% 7.1% 8.0% 0.89× 14.09
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 26.3% 25.0% 22.3% 1.12× 4.00
Exactly 3 goals 21.7% 22.3% 25.3% 0.88× 4.49
Exactly 1 goals 17.4% 17.6% 18.7% 0.94× 5.68
Exactly 4 goals 14.0% 12.3% 13.7% 0.90× 8.14
Exactly 0 goals 8.6% 7.8% 8.0% 0.97× 12.88
Exactly 5 goals 7.2% 7.8% 8.0% 0.97× 12.88
6 or more goals 4.8% 4.0% 5.7% 0.71× 24.72
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.3% 36.9% 2.71
No goals in 1st half 34.3% 34.4% 2.91
2 goals in 1st half 19.9% 18.9% 5.30
3+ goals in 1st half 9.4% 8.2% 12.21
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 44.9% 43.2% 2.31
1 goal in 2nd half 32.6% 34.3% 2.91
No goals in 2nd half 22.5% 20.6% 4.86
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dila Gori not to win both halves 92.3% 92.6% 1.08
Iberia 1999 not to win both halves 90.1% 92.6% 1.08
Iberia 1999 to win both halves 9.9% 7.4% 13.44
Dila Gori to win both halves 7.7% 7.4% 13.52
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iberia 1999 to win either half 52.5% 53.0% 1.89
Dila Gori to win neither half 52.4% 53.0% 1.89
Dila Gori to win either half 47.6% 47.0% 2.13
Iberia 1999 to win neither half 47.5% 47.0% 2.13
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dila Gori not to win to nil 82.6% 82.9% 83.0% 1.00× 1.21
Iberia 1999 not to win to nil 79.6% 78.4% 78.7% 1.00× 1.28
Iberia 1999 to win to nil 20.4% 21.6% 21.3% 1.01× 4.63
Dila Gori to win to nil 17.4% 17.1% 17.0% 1.00× 5.86
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 28.6% 27.3% 25.7% 1.06× 3.66
Iberia 1999 by 1 20.3% 23.4% 22.3% 1.05× 4.27
Dila Gori by 1 18.5% 17.2% 21.0% 0.82× 5.80
Iberia 1999 by 2 11.5% 11.8% 9.7% 1.22× 8.45
Dila Gori by 2 9.7% 7.3% 8.3% 0.87× 13.76
Iberia 1999 by 3+ 6.5% 7.3% 9.0% 0.81× 13.77
Dila Gori by 3+ 4.9% 3.0% 5.7% 0.53× 33.43
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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