Independiente del Valle v Flamengo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 11 September 2026 · SAM-Libertadores · 2627

SAM-Libertadores results-only Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

Independiente del Valle

00:30 UTC

Flamengo

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 65h before kick-off

Independiente del Valle win

27.9%

model 28.7%

Draw

22.4%

model 24.8%

Flamengo win

49.7%

model 46.5%

282250

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (476 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.8%
0-1 10.6%
1-2 9.3%
0-2 8.0%
1-0 8.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	50.6%	Under 2.5	49.4%
BTTS yes	53.6%	BTTS no	46.4%
Independiente del Valle 1+	68.5%	Independiente del Valle 2+	32.1%
Flamengo 1+	78.6%	Flamengo 2+	45.7%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.54. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

33/100

Data quality

55/100

Model agreement

88%

★ Best pick

Flamengo (DNB)

Draw no bet · usually 36%

62.3% fair odds 1.61

strong signal · 300 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1245 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.88).
Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Flamengo have an estimated 49.7% win probability, against 27.9% for Independiente del Valle and 22.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.16 for Independiente del Valle and 1.54 for Flamengo.

Why Independiente del Valle

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.4%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Flamengo can win

Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Independiente del Valle, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Flamengo, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Independiente del Valle: 46% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 14.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Flamengo: 56% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 15.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Independiente del Valle's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Flamengo are the model's most likely outcome at 49.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.8%. Confidence 33/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	292547	1.16–1.54	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	182458	0.79–1.65	0-1 15%	44%	44%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo to win	46.5%	49.1%	27.2%	1.81×	2.04
Independiente del Valle to win	28.7%	27.6%	48.0%	0.58×	3.62
Draw	24.8%	22.2%	25.2%	0.88×	4.51

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo & not both score	25.0%	26.3%	18.1%	1.45×	3.81
Flamengo & both teams score	21.5%	22.6%	9.4%	2.40×	4.43
Draw & both teams score	18.3%	17.8%	16.1%	1.10×	5.63
Independiente del Valle & not both score	14.9%	12.2%	31.9%	0.38×	8.21
Independiente del Valle & both teams score	13.8%	12.2%	16.4%	0.74×	8.21
Draw & not both score	6.5%	7.3%	9.4%	0.78×	13.69

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo & over 1.5	35.9%	37.5%	16.8%	2.23×	2.67
Flamengo & under 3.5	32.0%	33.1%	22.5%	1.47×	3.02
Flamengo & over 2.5	27.9%	25.5%	12.8%	2.00×	3.92
Independiente del Valle & under 3.5	21.1%	21.5%	35.9%	0.60×	4.65
Independiente del Valle & over 1.5	20.7%	21.5%	32.9%	0.65×	4.65
Flamengo & under 2.5	18.6%	17.6%	14.8%	1.19×	5.69
Draw & over 1.5	18.3%	17.6%	16.1%	1.09×	5.69
Draw & under 2.5	18.3%	17.6%	22.8%	0.77×	5.69
Draw & under 3.5	18.3%	17.6%	22.8%	0.77×	5.69
Independiente del Valle & over 2.5	16.2%	17.6%	24.2%	0.73×	5.70
Flamengo & over 3.5	14.5%	12.7%	5.0%	2.53×	7.86
Independiente del Valle & under 2.5	12.5%	12.7%	24.2%	0.53×	7.86
Flamengo & under 1.5	10.6%	12.7%	10.7%	1.18×	7.87
Independiente del Valle & under 1.5	8.0%	7.5%	15.4%	0.48×	13.41
Independiente del Valle & over 3.5	7.5%	7.5%	12.4%	0.60×	13.41
Draw & under 1.5	6.5%	7.5%	9.4%	0.79×	13.41
Draw & over 2.5	6.5%	7.5%	2.7%	2.78×	13.41
Draw & over 3.5	6.5%	7.5%	2.7%	2.78×	13.41

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (1UP)	61.6%	63.9%	—	—	1.57
Independiente del Valle (1UP)	46.1%	44.4%	—	—	2.25

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (2UP)	46.5%	49.5%	—	—	2.02
Independiente del Valle (2UP)	28.7%	30.7%	—	—	3.25

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo to win 2nd half	40.2%	39.4%	—	—	2.54
2nd half drawn	34.9%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
Independiente del Valle to win 2nd half	24.9%	22.4%	—	—	4.46

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (+2.5)	96.5%	97.1%	90.3%	1.08×	1.03
Flamengo (+1.5)	88.6%	89.0%	77.2%	1.15×	1.12
Flamengo (+0.5)	71.3%	73.0%	52.0%	1.40×	1.37
Independiente del Valle (+0.5)	53.5%	51.6%	72.8%	0.71×	1.94
Flamengo (-0.5)	46.5%	48.4%	27.2%	1.78×	2.07
Independiente del Valle (-0.5)	28.7%	27.0%	48.0%	0.56×	3.71
Independiente del Valle (-1.5)	11.4%	11.0%	22.8%	0.48×	9.11
Independiente del Valle (-2.5)	3.5%	2.9%	9.7%	0.29×	34.98

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo to concede	68.5%	71.3%	72.8%	0.98×	1.40
Flamengo clean sheet	31.5%	28.7%	27.2%	1.06×	3.49

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo clean sheet in 1st half	60.9%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Flamengo to concede in 1st half	39.1%	39.5%	—	—	2.53

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo under 6.5 corners	94.4%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Flamengo under 5.5 corners	89.2%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Flamengo under 4.5 corners	80.4%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Flamengo under 3.5 corners	66.6%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Flamengo over 2.5 corners	52.1%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Flamengo under 2.5 corners	47.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Flamengo over 3.5 corners	33.4%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Flamengo over 4.5 corners	19.6%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
Flamengo over 5.5 corners	10.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.76
Flamengo over 6.5 corners	5.6%	10.0%	—	—	10.01

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo under 3.5 goals	92.9%	92.7%	97.7%	0.95×	1.08
Flamengo under 2.5 goals	79.8%	75.4%	92.3%	0.82×	1.33
Flamengo over 0.5 goals	78.6%	75.3%	59.1%	1.28×	1.33
Flamengo under 1.5 goals	54.3%	52.0%	76.8%	0.68×	1.92
Flamengo over 1.5 goals	45.7%	48.0%	23.2%	2.07×	2.09
Flamengo under 0.5 goals	21.4%	24.7%	40.9%	0.60×	4.05
Flamengo over 2.5 goals	20.2%	24.6%	7.7%	3.19×	4.06
Flamengo over 3.5 goals	7.1%	7.3%	2.3%	3.13×	13.61

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo under 1.5 in 1st half	87.2%	87.6%	—	—	1.14
Flamengo under 0.5 in 1st half	53.9%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Flamengo over 0.5 in 1st half	46.1%	49.0%	—	—	2.04
Flamengo over 1.5 in 1st half	12.8%	12.4%	—	—	8.05

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle (away no bet)	53.6%	51.5%	65.6%	0.79×	1.94
Draw (away no bet)	46.4%	48.5%	34.4%	1.41×	2.06

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo even goals	52.3%	52.4%	58.4%	0.90×	1.91
Flamengo odd goals	47.7%	47.6%	41.6%	1.14×	2.10

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.6%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.4%	13.7%	—	—	7.32

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	63.1%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
Both halves under 1.5 goals	36.9%	33.7%	—	—	2.97

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	55.3%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
Flamengo to score 2+ in a row	37.5%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Independiente del Valle to score 2+ in a row	23.8%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Either team to score 3+ in a row	19.5%	17.9%	—	—	5.60
Flamengo to score 3+ in a row	13.5%	12.2%	—	—	8.19
Independiente del Valle to score 3+ in a row	6.2%	7.3%	—	—	13.69

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle corners (+3.5)	96.9%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Independiente del Valle corners (+2.5)	94.2%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Independiente del Valle corners (+1.5)	90.0%	89.5%	—	—	1.12
Independiente del Valle corners (-1.5)	65.8%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Flamengo corners (+3.5)	55.5%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Independiente del Valle corners (-2.5)	55.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Flamengo corners (+2.5)	44.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Independiente del Valle corners (-3.5)	44.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Flamengo corners (+1.5)	34.2%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Flamengo corners (-1.5)	10.0%	10.5%	—	—	9.56
Flamengo corners (-2.5)	5.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.57
Flamengo corners (-3.5)	3.1%	4.2%	—	—	23.65

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	48.5%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
9-11 corners	26.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	24.6%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	81.8%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	75.4%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	67.6%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	62.0%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	58.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	51.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	48.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	41.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	38.0%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	32.4%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	24.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 12.5 corners	18.2%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.8%	11.6%	13.8%	0.84×	8.63
0-1	10.6%	11.6%	10.7%	1.08×	8.64
1-2	9.3%	7.3%	6.0%	1.21×	13.74
0-2	8.0%	7.3%	4.4%	1.67×	13.74
1-0	8.0%	7.3%	15.4%	0.47×	13.74
2-1	6.9%	7.3%	7.7%	0.94×	13.75
0-0	6.5%	7.3%	9.4%	0.77×	13.75
2-2	5.3%	7.3%	2.0%	3.61×	13.75
0-3	4.1%	1.8%	2.3%	0.77×	55.41
1-3	4.8%	1.8%	1.0%	1.79×	55.39
2-0	4.5%	1.8%	9.1%	0.20×	55.40
2-3	2.8%	1.8%	2.3%	0.77×	55.44
3-1	2.7%	1.8%	3.7%	0.49×	55.44
Any other score	2.7%	1.8%	1.0%	1.79×	55.44
0-4	1.6%	1.8%	1.7%	1.07×	55.47
1-4	1.8%	1.8%	0.3%	5.37×	55.46
3-0	1.7%	1.8%	4.7%	0.38×	55.47
3-2	2.1%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.46
2-4	1.1%	1.8%	0.7%	2.69×	55.48
3-3	1.1%	1.8%	1.0%	1.79×	55.48
3-4	0.4%	1.8%	0.7%	2.68×	55.50
4-0	0.5%	1.8%	3.4%	0.54×	55.50
4-1	0.8%	1.8%	1.7%	1.07×	55.49
4-2	0.6%	1.8%	1.3%	1.34×	55.49
4-3	0.3%	1.8%	0.3%	5.37×	55.50
4-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.3%	5.37×	55.51

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo leading at HT (DNB)	57.0%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Independiente del Valle leading at HT (DNB)	43.0%	43.3%	—	—	2.31

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle or Flamengo (12)	75.2%	77.8%	74.8%	1.04×	1.29
Flamengo or draw (X2)	71.3%	72.4%	52.0%	1.39×	1.38
Independiente del Valle or draw (1X)	53.5%	50.9%	72.8%	0.70×	1.97

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo or draw at HT	75.7%	78.7%	—	—	1.27
Independiente del Valle or draw at HT	67.9%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
Independiente del Valle or Flamengo at HT	56.4%	58.2%	—	—	1.72

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo or draw (1UP)	71.3%	77.3%	—	—	1.29
Independiente del Valle or draw (1UP)	53.5%	58.8%	—	—	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo or draw in 2nd half	75.1%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Independiente del Valle or Flamengo in 2nd half	65.1%	66.2%	—	—	1.51
Independiente del Valle or draw in 2nd half	59.8%	60.6%	—	—	1.65

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.5%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Neither half drawn	36.5%	40.6%	—	—	2.47

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (DNB)	61.8%	62.3%	36.2%	1.72×	1.61
Independiente del Valle (DNB)	38.2%	37.7%	63.8%	0.59×	2.65

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo to score first	53.5%	53.7%	—	—	1.86
Independiente del Valle to score first	40.0%	41.3%	—	—	2.42
No goal scored	6.5%	6.2%	—	—	16.05

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.6%	52.9%	41.3%	1.28×	1.89
Not both teams to score	46.4%	47.1%	58.7%	0.80×	2.12

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	41.9%	42.3%	27.9%	1.52×	2.37
Not both score & under 2.5	37.6%	37.4%	47.7%	0.79×	2.67
Both score & under 2.5	11.8%	11.7%	13.8%	0.85×	8.53
Not both score & over 2.5	8.7%	8.7%	11.4%	0.77×	11.45

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.3%	85.5%	90.6%	0.94×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.7%	14.5%	9.4%	1.55×	6.89

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.0%	70.4%	—	—	1.42
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.0%	29.6%	—	—	3.38

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	58.2%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Both score 2nd half only	23.8%	24.4%	—	—	4.09
Both score 1st half only	12.7%	11.6%	—	—	8.64
Both score in both halves	5.3%	6.4%	—	—	15.55

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.0%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	18.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.94

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	53.3%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
A half without a goal	46.7%	45.3%	—	—	2.21

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.3%	45.9%	46.0%	1.00×	2.18
4-6 goals	26.5%	27.7%	18.8%	1.47×	3.62
0-1 goals	25.1%	27.6%	34.9%	0.79×	3.62
7+ goals	2.0%	1.9%	1.0%	1.93×	51.50

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo to score exactly 1	33.0%	33.2%	36.2%	0.92×	3.01
Flamengo to score exactly 2	25.5%	27.0%	15.8%	1.71×	3.70
Flamengo to score exactly 0	21.4%	23.9%	40.9%	0.59×	4.18
Flamengo to score 3+	20.2%	23.9%	7.7%	3.10×	4.18

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle to score exactly 1	36.4%	36.0%	35.2%	1.02×	2.78
Independiente del Valle to score exactly 0	31.5%	30.5%	27.2%	1.12×	3.28
Independiente del Valle to score exactly 2	21.0%	22.9%	20.5%	1.12×	4.36
Independiente del Valle to score 3+	11.1%	13.4%	17.8%	0.75×	7.46

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.6%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
Flamengo leading at HT	32.1%	33.7%	—	—	2.96
Independiente del Valle leading at HT	24.3%	21.4%	—	—	4.68

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo -1: 1	53.5%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Flamengo -1: 2	23.4%	24.0%	—	—	4.18
Flamengo -1: X	23.1%	24.0%	—	—	4.18

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (0:1)	71.3%	68.5%	52.0%	1.32×	1.46
Draw (0:1)	17.3%	18.3%	25.5%	0.72×	5.47
Independiente del Valle (0:1)	11.4%	10.6%	22.8%	0.46×	9.44

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (0:2)	88.6%	89.8%	77.2%	1.16×	1.11
Draw (0:2)	7.8%	7.2%	13.4%	0.54×	13.91
Independiente del Valle (0:2)	3.5%	3.0%	9.7%	0.31×	33.04

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (0:3)	96.5%	97.1%	90.3%	1.08×	1.03
Draw (0:3)	2.7%	2.3%	6.0%	0.38×	43.01
Independiente del Valle (0:3)	0.9%	2.3%	4.0%	0.57×	43.40

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (0:4)	99.1%	98.1%	96.0%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	3.7%	0.33×	80.99
Independiente del Valle (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	0.7%	1.83×	81.26

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle (1:0)	53.5%	48.9%	72.8%	0.67×	2.05
Flamengo (1:0)	23.4%	23.0%	8.7%	2.63×	4.36
Draw (1:0)	23.1%	23.0%	18.8%	1.22×	4.36

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle (2:0)	76.6%	77.6%	91.3%	0.85×	1.29
Draw (2:0)	14.0%	12.2%	5.4%	2.27×	8.22
Flamengo (2:0)	9.4%	6.7%	3.7%	1.80×	15.04

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.4%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	26.9%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
Halves equal	24.7%	23.2%	—	—	4.30

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle to concede	78.6%	77.4%	59.1%	1.31×	1.29
Independiente del Valle clean sheet	21.4%	22.6%	40.9%	0.55×	4.42

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle clean sheet in 1st half	53.9%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Independiente del Valle to concede in 1st half	46.1%	49.0%	—	—	2.04

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle over 2.5 corners	87.5%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Independiente del Valle over 3.5 corners	77.1%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Independiente del Valle over 4.5 corners	64.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Independiente del Valle under 6.5 corners	59.4%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Independiente del Valle over 5.5 corners	52.4%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Independiente del Valle under 5.5 corners	47.6%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Independiente del Valle over 6.5 corners	40.6%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Independiente del Valle under 4.5 corners	35.1%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Independiente del Valle under 3.5 corners	22.9%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Independiente del Valle under 2.5 corners	12.5%	13.7%	—	—	7.30

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle under 3.5 goals	97.0%	97.7%	93.6%	1.04×	1.02
Independiente del Valle under 2.5 goals	88.9%	87.8%	82.2%	1.07×	1.14
Independiente del Valle over 0.5 goals	68.5%	68.8%	72.8%	0.95×	1.45
Independiente del Valle under 1.5 goals	67.9%	68.8%	62.1%	1.11×	1.45
Independiente del Valle over 1.5 goals	32.1%	31.2%	37.9%	0.82×	3.20
Independiente del Valle under 0.5 goals	31.5%	31.2%	27.2%	1.15×	3.21
Independiente del Valle over 2.5 goals	11.1%	12.2%	17.8%	0.68×	8.23
Independiente del Valle over 3.5 goals	3.0%	2.3%	6.4%	0.35×	44.21

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle under 1.5 in 1st half	91.1%	93.1%	—	—	1.08
Independiente del Valle under 0.5 in 1st half	60.9%	60.3%	—	—	1.66
Independiente del Valle over 0.5 in 1st half	39.1%	39.7%	—	—	2.52
Independiente del Valle over 1.5 in 1st half	8.9%	6.9%	—	—	14.40

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (home no bet)	65.2%	68.0%	51.9%	1.31×	1.47
Draw (home no bet)	34.8%	32.0%	48.1%	0.67×	3.13

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle even goals	55.0%	50.3%	53.4%	0.94×	1.99
Independiente del Valle odd goals	45.0%	49.7%	46.6%	1.07×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.8%	30.5%	—	—	3.28
HT 0-1	20.3%	22.6%	—	—	4.43
HT 1-0	16.3%	18.9%	—	—	5.30
HT 1-1	10.0%	11.2%	—	—	8.96
HT 0-2	6.3%	7.7%	—	—	13.02
HT 2-0	4.0%	2.5%	—	—	39.77
Any other HT score	3.9%	2.5%	—	—	39.78
HT 1-2	3.1%	2.5%	—	—	39.82
HT 2-1	2.5%	2.5%	—	—	39.86
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.5%	—	—	39.96

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo at HT / Flamengo at FT	25.9%	27.0%	—	—	3.70
Draw at HT / Flamengo at FT	17.7%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Independiente del Valle at HT / Independiente del Valle at FT	16.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.0%	12.0%	—	—	8.34
Draw at HT / Independiente del Valle at FT	11.0%	12.0%	—	—	8.37
Independiente del Valle at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.6%	—	—	15.27
Flamengo at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.4%	—	—	29.32
Independiente del Valle at HT / Flamengo at FT	3.0%	3.4%	—	—	29.39
Flamengo at HT / Independiente del Valle at FT	1.7%	3.4%	—	—	29.44

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo to score last	53.5%	53.7%	—	—	1.86
Independiente del Valle to score last	40.0%	40.2%	—	—	2.49
No goal scored	6.5%	6.2%	—	—	16.05

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.5%	93.7%	—	—	1.07
Flamengo to lead by 1 at any time	61.6%	64.3%	—	—	1.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	46.2%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
Independiente del Valle to lead by 1 at any time	46.1%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
Flamengo to lead by 2 at any time	29.8%	26.1%	—	—	3.84
Independiente del Valle to lead by 2 at any time	16.7%	17.6%	—	—	5.67
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.4%	17.6%	—	—	5.67
Flamengo to lead by 3 at any time	11.6%	11.3%	—	—	8.84
Independiente del Valle to lead by 3 at any time	4.8%	2.7%	—	—	37.68

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle most corners	75.7%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Flamengo most corners	16.1%	19.0%	—	—	5.25
Corners level	8.2%	8.4%	—	—	11.90

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.8%	87.9%	87.6%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.8%	78.9%	81.5%	0.97×	1.27
2-6 goals	72.8%	73.6%	64.4%	1.14×	1.36
2-5 goals	69.2%	68.4%	62.1%	1.10×	1.46
1-3 goals	64.9%	62.3%	71.5%	0.87×	1.61
2-4 goals	61.2%	62.3%	56.0%	1.11×	1.61
3-6 goals	48.6%	48.0%	38.3%	1.26×	2.08
2-3 goals	46.3%	48.0%	46.0%	1.04×	2.08
3-5 goals	44.9%	43.6%	35.9%	1.22×	2.29
1-2 goals	42.9%	43.6%	52.0%	0.84×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.9%	38.8%	29.9%	1.30×	2.58
4-6 goals	26.5%	30.4%	18.8%	1.62×	3.29
4-5 goals	22.9%	24.7%	16.4%	1.50×	4.04
5-6 goals	11.6%	13.4%	8.7%	1.54×	7.44
7+ goals	2.0%	2.0%	1.0%	2.01×	49.50

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo never behind	47.4%	53.7%	—	—	1.86
Independiente del Valle never behind	31.9%	36.1%	—	—	2.77

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.8%	50.1%	48.3%	1.04×	1.99
Odd number of goals	50.2%	49.9%	51.7%	0.96×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.3%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Odd goals in 1st half	44.7%	44.7%	—	—	2.24

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.9%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.1%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.3%	93.0%	96.6%	0.96×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.5%	93.0%	90.6%	1.03×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.3%	88.7%	90.6%	0.98×	1.13
Over 1.5 goals	74.9%	72.5%	65.1%	1.11×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	71.4%	72.4%	80.5%	0.90×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	50.6%	53.5%	38.9%	1.37×	1.87
Under 2.5 goals	49.4%	46.5%	61.1%	0.76×	2.15
Over 3.5 goals	28.6%	27.6%	19.5%	1.42×	3.62
Under 1.5 goals	25.1%	27.5%	34.9%	0.79×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	13.7%	11.3%	9.4%	1.20×	8.88
Under 0.5 goals	6.5%	7.0%	9.4%	0.75×	14.20
Over 5.5 goals	5.7%	7.0%	3.4%	2.10×	14.22

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.9%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.8%	92.8%	96.4%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	83.9%	80.8%	89.6%	0.90×	1.24
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	66.8%	68.0%	52.7%	1.29×	1.47
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	63.4%	62.4%	75.8%	0.82×	1.60
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	36.6%	37.6%	24.2%	1.56×	2.66
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	33.2%	32.0%	47.3%	0.68×	3.13
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	16.1%	19.2%	10.4%	1.84×	5.20
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.2%	7.2%	3.6%	2.03×	13.80
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.1%	2.8%	1.0%	2.69×	36.13

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.8%	88.2%	—	—	1.13
Under 1.5 in 1st half	69.4%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.2%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.8%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half	30.6%	31.4%	—	—	3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.2%	11.8%	—	—	8.44

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.6%	80.3%	—	—	1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	78.7%	80.3%	—	—	1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	46.9%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	53.1%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	21.3%	19.7%	—	—	5.07
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.4%	19.7%	—	—	5.08

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle not to score in both halves	81.1%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Flamengo not to score in both halves	72.2%	70.4%	—	—	1.42
Flamengo to score in both halves	27.8%	29.6%	—	—	3.38
Independiente del Valle to score in both halves	18.9%	18.5%	—	—	5.39

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	53.6%	54.8%	41.3%	1.33×	1.83
Only Flamengo scores	25.0%	25.6%	18.1%	1.41×	3.91
Only Independiente del Valle scores	14.9%	10.9%	31.9%	0.34×	9.20
Neither team scores	6.5%	6.6%	9.4%	0.71×	15.06

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.3%	21.6%	26.5%	0.81×	4.64
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	21.5%	19.8%	1.09×	4.64
Exactly 1 goals	18.6%	18.6%	25.8%	0.72×	5.38
Exactly 4 goals	14.9%	12.4%	10.4%	1.19×	8.07
Exactly 5 goals	8.0%	7.6%	6.4%	1.19×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	6.5%	7.6%	9.4%	0.81×	13.15
6 or more goals	5.7%	7.6%	3.4%	2.26×	13.16

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	46.9%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
1 goal in 2nd half	32.6%	33.2%	—	—	3.02
No goals in 2nd half	20.4%	18.4%	—	—	5.43

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle not to win both halves	94.0%	93.4%	—	—	1.07
Flamengo not to win both halves	87.1%	87.5%	—	—	1.14
Flamengo to win both halves	12.9%	12.5%	—	—	8.02
Independiente del Valle to win both halves	6.0%	6.6%	—	—	15.18

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo to win either half	59.5%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
Independiente del Valle to win neither half	56.9%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Independiente del Valle to win either half	43.1%	40.6%	—	—	2.47
Flamengo to win neither half	40.5%	40.5%	—	—	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle not to win to nil	85.1%	88.2%	68.1%	1.29×	1.13
Flamengo not to win to nil	75.0%	74.4%	81.9%	0.91×	1.34
Flamengo to win to nil	25.0%	25.6%	18.1%	1.41×	3.91
Independiente del Valle to win to nil	14.9%	11.8%	31.9%	0.37×	8.47

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.8%	23.8%	25.2%	0.94×	4.21
Flamengo by 1	23.1%	23.7%	18.8%	1.26×	4.21
Independiente del Valle by 1	17.3%	17.0%	25.5%	0.67×	5.89
Flamengo by 2	14.0%	11.9%	5.4%	2.21×	8.42
Flamengo by 3+	9.4%	7.1%	3.7%	1.93×	14.06
Independiente del Valle by 2	7.8%	7.1%	13.4%	0.53×	14.09
Independiente del Valle by 3+	3.5%	2.8%	9.7%	0.29×	35.27