Independiente del Valle v Macará — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · ECU-LigaPro · 2627

ECU-LigaPro results-only Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

Independiente del Valle

23:00 UTC

Macará

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 1h before kick-off

Independiente del Valle win

61.7%

model 60.8%

Draw

19.2%

model 19.3%

Macará win

19.2%

model 19.9%

621919

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (1,523 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 9.7%
1-1 8.5%
2-0 8.2%
1-0 7.8%
3-1 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	65.7%	Under 2.5	34.3%
BTTS yes	61.4%	BTTS no	38.6%
Independiente del Valle 1+	89.0%	Independiente del Valle 2+	64.6%
Macará 1+	69.3%	Macará 2+	33.1%

Expected goals 2.20 – 1.18. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

78/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Over 3 (void on exactly 3)

Over/Under (whole line) · usually 29%

55.3% fair odds 1.81

strong signal · 677 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both teams to score 2+

GG/NG 2+ · usually 90%

83.9% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 222 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Independiente del Valle carry the stronger rating, 1813 Elo against 1647.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

Independiente del Valle have played 7 matches in the last 30 days.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Independiente del Valle have an estimated 61.7% win probability, against 19.2% for Macará and 19.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.20 for Independiente del Valle and 1.18 for Macará.

Why Independiente del Valle

Independiente del Valle carry the stronger rating, 1813 Elo against 1647. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 19.2%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Macará can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Independiente del Valle, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Macará, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Independiente del Valle: 46% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 14.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Macará: 45% possession, 15.2 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Independiente del Valle's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Independiente del Valle are the model's most likely outcome at 61.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.7%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	611919	2.20–1.15	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	641818	2.35–1.16	2-1 10%	68%	62%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle to win	64.1%	58.2%	44.2%	1.32×	1.72
Draw	18.1%	19.3%	26.4%	0.73×	5.17
Macará to win	17.8%	19.3%	29.6%	0.65×	5.17

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle & both teams score	35.9%	33.1%	19.0%	1.75×	3.02
Independiente del Valle & not both score	28.2%	25.2%	25.5%	0.99×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	15.4%	17.9%	18.6%	0.96×	5.58
Macará & both teams score	11.1%	13.2%	11.7%	1.13×	7.55
Macará & not both score	6.7%	8.4%	18.0%	0.46×	11.94
Draw & not both score	2.6%	4.9%	8.0%	0.61×	20.61

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle & over 1.5	57.0%	54.9%	32.2%	1.71×	1.82
Independiente del Valle & over 2.5	48.9%	45.2%	24.5%	1.84×	2.21
Independiente del Valle & over 3.5	33.0%	30.9%	11.2%	2.77×	3.24
Independiente del Valle & under 3.5	31.2%	30.9%	33.3%	0.93×	3.24
Draw & over 1.5	15.4%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Independiente del Valle & under 2.5	15.2%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Macará & over 1.5	14.1%	12.9%	19.1%	0.67×	7.77
Macará & over 2.5	12.1%	12.9%	14.7%	0.88×	7.77
Draw & under 2.5	10.4%	12.9%	22.1%	0.58×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	10.4%	12.9%	22.1%	0.58×	7.77
Macará & under 3.5	11.2%	12.9%	22.3%	0.58×	7.77
Draw & over 2.5	7.7%	7.9%	4.5%	1.77×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	7.7%	7.9%	4.5%	1.77×	12.70
Independiente del Valle & under 1.5	7.1%	7.9%	12.3%	0.64×	12.70
Macará & over 3.5	6.6%	7.9%	7.4%	1.06×	12.70
Macará & under 2.5	5.7%	7.9%	15.1%	0.52×	12.70
Macará & under 1.5	3.7%	4.8%	10.6%	0.45×	20.94
Draw & under 1.5	2.6%	4.8%	8.0%	0.60×	20.95

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle (1UP)	77.4%	78.8%	—	—	1.27
Macará (1UP)	38.5%	34.5%	—	—	2.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle (2UP)	64.1%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Macará (2UP)	17.8%	17.5%	—	—	5.73

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle to win 2nd half	52.3%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
2nd half drawn	28.0%	26.4%	—	—	3.79
Macará to win 2nd half	19.6%	19.2%	—	—	5.21

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle (+0.5)	82.2%	82.4%	70.4%	1.17×	1.21
Macará (+2.5)	76.9%	78.4%	92.2%	0.85×	1.28
Independiente del Valle (-0.5)	64.1%	62.9%	44.2%	1.42×	1.59
Macará (+1.5)	58.1%	57.0%	80.5%	0.71×	1.75
Independiente del Valle (-1.5)	41.9%	43.0%	19.5%	2.20×	2.33
Macará (+0.5)	35.9%	37.1%	55.8%	0.67×	2.70
Independiente del Valle (-2.5)	23.1%	21.6%	7.8%	2.76×	4.64
Macará (-0.5)	17.8%	17.6%	29.6%	0.60×	5.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará to concede	90.6%	91.7%	74.2%	1.24×	1.09
Macará clean sheet	9.4%	8.3%	25.8%	0.32×	12.06

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará to concede in 1st half	63.9%	64.9%	—	—	1.54
Macará clean sheet in 1st half	36.1%	35.1%	—	—	2.85

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará under 6.5 corners	96.0%	91.8%	—	—	1.09
Macará under 5.5 corners	91.3%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Macará under 4.5 corners	82.6%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Macará under 3.5 corners	68.4%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Macará over 2.5 corners	51.5%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Macará under 2.5 corners	48.5%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Macará over 3.5 corners	31.6%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
Macará over 4.5 corners	17.4%	19.1%	—	—	5.25
Macará over 5.5 corners	8.7%	10.8%	—	—	9.27
Macará over 6.5 corners	4.0%	8.2%	—	—	12.21

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará under 3.5 goals	96.8%	97.5%	96.8%	1.01×	1.03
Macará under 2.5 goals	88.5%	87.9%	89.8%	0.98×	1.14
Macará over 0.5 goals	69.1%	68.0%	66.7%	1.02×	1.47
Macará under 1.5 goals	67.1%	67.9%	73.8%	0.92×	1.47
Macará over 1.5 goals	32.9%	32.1%	26.2%	1.22×	3.12
Macará under 0.5 goals	30.9%	32.0%	33.3%	0.96×	3.12
Macará over 2.5 goals	11.5%	12.1%	10.2%	1.18×	8.26
Macará over 3.5 goals	3.2%	2.5%	3.2%	0.78×	40.71

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará under 1.5 in 1st half	91.9%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Macará under 0.5 in 1st half	62.5%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
Macará over 0.5 in 1st half	37.5%	35.9%	—	—	2.79
Macará over 1.5 in 1st half	8.1%	5.8%	—	—	17.11

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle (away no bet)	78.0%	73.7%	62.6%	1.18×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	22.0%	26.3%	37.4%	0.70×	3.80

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará even goals	54.8%	52.8%	51.7%	1.02×	1.89
Macará odd goals	45.2%	47.2%	48.3%	0.98×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	73.3%	77.2%	—	—	1.30
Both halves over 1.5 goals	26.7%	22.8%	—	—	4.39

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	77.9%	72.7%	—	—	1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals	22.1%	27.3%	—	—	3.66

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	71.3%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Independiente del Valle to score 2+ in a row	59.6%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Either team to score 3+ in a row	34.6%	29.2%	—	—	3.43
Independiente del Valle to score 3+ in a row	30.2%	29.0%	—	—	3.45
Macará to score 2+ in a row	21.4%	19.5%	—	—	5.14
Macará to score 3+ in a row	5.0%	2.7%	—	—	37.60

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle corners (+3.5)	98.1%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Independiente del Valle corners (+2.5)	96.2%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Independiente del Valle corners (+1.5)	92.8%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
Independiente del Valle corners (-1.5)	70.1%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Independiente del Valle corners (-2.5)	59.0%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Macará corners (+3.5)	52.5%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Independiente del Valle corners (-3.5)	47.5%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
Macará corners (+2.5)	41.0%	43.2%	—	—	2.32
Macará corners (+1.5)	29.9%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Macará corners (-1.5)	7.2%	11.3%	—	—	8.82
Macará corners (-2.5)	3.8%	6.0%	—	—	16.57
Macará corners (-3.5)	1.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.68

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	46.6%	40.6%	—	—	2.46
9-11 corners	29.5%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
12+ corners	23.8%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	83.1%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 11.5 corners	76.2%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	67.7%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Over 7.5 corners	64.7%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Under 9.5 corners	57.7%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	53.4%	52.2%	—	—	1.91
Under 8.5 corners	46.6%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Over 9.5 corners	42.3%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	35.3%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Over 10.5 corners	32.3%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Over 11.5 corners	23.8%	23.4%	—	—	4.28
Over 12.5 corners	16.9%	20.2%	—	—	4.96

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-1	9.5%	7.4%	10.4%	0.71×	13.48
Any other score	9.8%	7.4%	2.4%	3.07×	13.48
1-0	7.1%	7.4%	12.3%	0.60×	13.48
1-1	7.8%	7.4%	14.3%	0.52×	13.48
2-0	8.1%	7.4%	7.8%	0.95×	13.48
3-1	7.5%	7.4%	4.1%	1.81×	13.48
2-2	5.6%	7.4%	3.9%	1.90×	13.48
3-0	6.4%	7.4%	3.3%	2.22×	13.48
1-2	4.7%	1.7%	5.8%	0.30×	58.46
0-0	2.6%	1.7%	8.0%	0.21×	58.47
0-1	3.7%	1.7%	10.6%	0.16×	58.47
0-2	2.0%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.48
0-3	0.8%	1.7%	1.9%	0.92×	58.49
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.49
1-3	1.9%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	58.48
1-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.49
2-3	2.2%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.48
2-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.49
3-2	4.4%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.46
3-3	1.7%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.48
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.2%	9.20×	58.49
4-0	3.8%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.47
4-1	4.5%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.46
4-2	2.6%	1.7%	0.4%	4.60×	58.47
4-3	1.0%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.48
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	9.20×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle leading at HT (DNB)	74.3%	72.7%	—	—	1.38
Macará leading at HT (DNB)	25.7%	27.3%	—	—	3.66

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle or draw (1X)	82.2%	80.7%	70.4%	1.15×	1.24
Independiente del Valle or Macará (12)	81.9%	80.7%	73.6%	1.10×	1.24
Macará or draw (X2)	35.9%	41.8%	55.8%	0.75×	2.39

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle or draw at HT	83.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Independiente del Valle or Macará at HT	65.4%	66.2%	—	—	1.51
Macará or draw at HT	51.5%	47.6%	—	—	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle or draw (1UP)	82.2%	88.4%	—	—	1.13
Macará or draw (1UP)	38.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle or draw in 2nd half	80.4%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Independiente del Valle or Macará in 2nd half	72.0%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Macará or draw in 2nd half	47.7%	47.7%	—	—	2.10

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half drawn	46.7%	50.0%	—	—	2.00
A half drawn	53.3%	50.0%	—	—	2.00

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle (DNB)	78.3%	74.7%	60.0%	1.25×	1.34
Macará (DNB)	21.7%	25.3%	40.1%	0.63×	3.95

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle to score first	65.1%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Macará to score first	32.3%	27.2%	—	—	3.68
No goal scored	2.6%	4.3%	—	—	23.53

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	62.4%	56.5%	48.9%	1.16×	1.77
Not both teams to score	37.6%	43.5%	51.1%	0.85×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	54.6%	47.1%	34.8%	1.36×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	23.5%	27.7%	42.6%	0.65×	3.61
Not both score & over 2.5	14.1%	12.3%	8.7%	1.41×	8.10
Both score & under 2.5	7.8%	8.4%	14.3%	0.58×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	77.5%	79.9%	90.0%	0.89×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	22.5%	20.1%	10.0%	2.01×	4.97

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	62.6%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	37.4%	34.0%	—	—	2.94

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	47.7%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Both score 2nd half only	28.4%	26.6%	—	—	3.75
Both score 1st half only	14.9%	10.8%	—	—	9.29
Both score in both halves	9.0%	6.8%	—	—	14.68

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	76.1%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	23.9%	18.6%	—	—	5.37

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	67.4%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
A half without a goal	32.6%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	40.5%	42.1%	21.4%	1.97×	2.38
2-3 goals	39.3%	35.1%	47.0%	0.75×	2.85
0-1 goals	13.4%	16.9%	30.5%	0.56×	5.91
7+ goals	6.8%	7.6%	1.5%	5.10×	13.19

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará to score exactly 1	36.3%	36.0%	40.7%	0.88×	2.78
Macará to score exactly 0	30.9%	33.8%	33.3%	1.02×	2.96
Macará to score exactly 2	21.3%	22.4%	16.2%	1.39×	4.46
Macará to score 3+	11.5%	12.8%	10.2%	1.25×	7.81

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle to score 3+	42.2%	34.9%	14.9%	2.35×	2.87
Independiente del Valle to score exactly 2	26.3%	26.5%	24.5%	1.08×	3.77
Independiente del Valle to score exactly 1	22.2%	23.2%	35.1%	0.66×	4.30
Independiente del Valle to score exactly 0	9.4%	10.3%	25.8%	0.40×	9.70

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle leading at HT	48.5%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Draw at HT	34.6%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
Macará leading at HT	16.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.44

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle -1: 1	41.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Independiente del Valle -1: 2	35.9%	37.3%	—	—	2.69
Independiente del Valle -1: X	22.3%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle (0:1)	41.9%	42.7%	19.5%	2.19×	2.34
Macará (0:1)	35.9%	37.2%	55.8%	0.67×	2.69
Draw (0:1)	22.3%	24.3%	24.9%	0.97×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará (0:2)	58.1%	62.8%	80.5%	0.78×	1.59
Independiente del Valle (0:2)	23.1%	20.4%	7.8%	2.61×	4.91
Draw (0:2)	18.8%	15.3%	11.9%	1.29×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará (0:3)	76.9%	80.4%	92.2%	0.87×	1.24
Draw (0:3)	12.3%	10.0%	4.6%	2.15×	10.00
Independiente del Valle (0:3)	10.7%	10.0%	3.3%	2.98×	10.02

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará (0:4)	89.3%	92.1%	96.7%	0.95×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	6.5%	4.6%	2.2%	2.08×	21.56
Independiente del Valle (0:4)	4.3%	1.2%	1.3%	0.92×	83.25

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle (1:0)	82.2%	81.4%	70.4%	1.16×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	11.2%	12.8%	18.2%	0.70×	7.81
Macará (1:0)	6.6%	6.9%	11.5%	0.60×	14.45

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle (2:0)	93.4%	93.9%	88.5%	1.06×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.6%	2.3%	7.4%	0.31×	44.09
Macará (2:0)	2.0%	2.3%	4.3%	0.53×	44.27

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	51.0%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	28.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	20.9%	24.0%	—	—	4.16

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle to concede	69.1%	66.6%	66.7%	1.00×	1.50
Independiente del Valle clean sheet	30.9%	33.4%	33.3%	1.01×	2.99

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle clean sheet in 1st half	62.5%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
Independiente del Valle to concede in 1st half	37.5%	35.9%	—	—	2.79

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle over 2.5 corners	90.9%	88.3%	—	—	1.13
Independiente del Valle over 3.5 corners	81.5%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Independiente del Valle over 4.5 corners	69.4%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Independiente del Valle under 6.5 corners	57.0%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Independiente del Valle over 5.5 corners	56.0%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Independiente del Valle under 5.5 corners	44.0%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Independiente del Valle over 6.5 corners	43.0%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Independiente del Valle under 4.5 corners	30.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Independiente del Valle under 3.5 corners	18.5%	18.7%	—	—	5.36
Independiente del Valle under 2.5 corners	9.1%	11.8%	—	—	8.51

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle over 0.5 goals	90.6%	92.2%	74.2%	1.24×	1.08
Independiente del Valle under 3.5 goals	78.5%	77.8%	94.6%	0.82×	1.29
Independiente del Valle over 1.5 goals	68.5%	67.9%	39.2%	1.73×	1.47
Independiente del Valle under 2.5 goals	57.8%	58.8%	85.1%	0.69×	1.70
Independiente del Valle over 2.5 goals	42.2%	41.2%	14.9%	2.77×	2.43
Independiente del Valle under 1.5 goals	31.5%	32.1%	60.8%	0.53×	3.11
Independiente del Valle over 3.5 goals	21.5%	22.2%	5.4%	4.13×	4.50
Independiente del Valle under 0.5 goals	9.4%	7.8%	25.8%	0.30×	12.90

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle under 1.5 in 1st half	72.9%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Independiente del Valle over 0.5 in 1st half	63.9%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Independiente del Valle under 0.5 in 1st half	36.1%	35.3%	—	—	2.84
Independiente del Valle over 1.5 in 1st half	27.1%	20.1%	—	—	4.98

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	50.3%	51.6%	47.2%	1.09×	1.94
Macará (home no bet)	49.7%	48.4%	52.8%	0.92×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle even goals	50.4%	50.6%	54.3%	0.93×	1.98
Independiente del Valle odd goals	49.6%	49.4%	45.7%	1.08×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	23.0%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
HT 0-0	22.5%	24.2%	—	—	4.14
HT 2-0	11.7%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
HT 1-1	10.8%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
HT 0-1	10.7%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
Any other HT score	9.5%	7.1%	—	—	13.99
HT 2-1	5.5%	7.1%	—	—	14.05
HT 0-2	2.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.52
HT 1-2	2.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.52
HT 2-2	1.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.61

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle at HT / Independiente del Valle at FT	42.2%	43.2%	—	—	2.32
Draw at HT / Independiente del Valle at FT	18.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	9.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.60
Macará at HT / Macará at FT	9.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.61
Draw at HT / Macará at FT	6.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.68
Independiente del Valle at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.74
Macará at HT / Draw at FT	4.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.76
Macará at HT / Independiente del Valle at FT	3.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.78
Independiente del Valle at HT / Macará at FT	1.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.85

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle to score last	65.0%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Macará to score last	32.4%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
No goal scored	2.6%	4.3%	—	—	23.53

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.4%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Independiente del Valle to lead by 1 at any time	77.4%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	61.8%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Independiente del Valle to lead by 2 at any time	50.0%	44.0%	—	—	2.27
Macará to lead by 1 at any time	38.5%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	30.4%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Independiente del Valle to lead by 3 at any time	27.1%	25.5%	—	—	3.93
Macará to lead by 2 at any time	12.3%	10.5%	—	—	9.56
Macará to lead by 3 at any time	3.3%	1.6%	—	—	61.10

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle most corners	79.8%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Macará most corners	12.6%	10.7%	—	—	9.39
Corners level	7.6%	8.4%	—	—	11.91

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	82.6%	83.5%	89.0%	0.94×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.8%	78.6%	68.2%	1.15×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.8%	72.4%	66.5%	1.09×	1.38
1-4 goals	69.1%	69.0%	81.8%	0.84×	1.45
3-6 goals	61.9%	63.4%	42.0%	1.51×	1.58
2-4 goals	58.3%	59.2%	59.3%	1.00×	1.69
3-5 goals	53.9%	53.2%	40.3%	1.32×	1.88
1-3 goals	50.1%	53.2%	69.5%	0.77×	1.88
3-4 goals	40.5%	43.6%	33.1%	1.32×	2.30
4-6 goals	40.5%	43.6%	21.4%	2.04×	2.30
2-3 goals	39.3%	39.2%	47.0%	0.83×	2.55
4-5 goals	32.5%	35.4%	19.7%	1.79×	2.83
1-2 goals	28.7%	30.2%	48.9%	0.62×	3.31
5-6 goals	21.5%	24.5%	9.1%	2.69×	4.09
7+ goals	6.8%	8.7%	1.5%	5.87×	11.45

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle never behind	58.9%	62.9%	—	—	1.59
Macará never behind	20.0%	24.1%	—	—	4.15

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.5%	50.8%	48.5%	1.05×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.5%	49.2%	51.5%	0.95×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.4%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.6%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.6%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.4%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.4%	95.5%	92.0%	1.04×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	86.6%	87.6%	69.5%	1.26×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	85.2%	87.6%	96.8%	0.91×	1.14
Under 4.5 goals	71.7%	72.5%	89.6%	0.81×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	68.7%	66.2%	43.3%	1.53×	1.51
Under 3.5 goals	52.7%	52.5%	77.3%	0.68×	1.91
Over 3.5 goals	47.3%	47.5%	22.7%	2.10×	2.10
Under 2.5 goals	31.3%	33.8%	56.7%	0.60×	2.96
Over 4.5 goals	28.3%	27.5%	10.4%	2.64×	3.64
Over 5.5 goals	14.8%	12.4%	3.2%	3.91×	8.09
Under 1.5 goals	13.4%	12.4%	30.5%	0.41×	8.09
Under 0.5 goals	2.6%	4.5%	8.0%	0.56×	22.23

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	92.6%	92.5%	98.5%	0.94×	1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	83.7%	81.1%	58.7%	1.38×	1.23
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	82.9%	81.1%	96.6%	0.84×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	65.1%	67.4%	88.1%	0.76×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	60.2%	62.1%	28.6%	2.17×	1.61
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	39.8%	37.9%	71.4%	0.53×	2.64
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	34.9%	32.6%	11.9%	2.75×	3.06
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	17.1%	18.9%	3.4%	5.56×	5.28
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	16.3%	18.9%	41.3%	0.46×	5.29
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	7.4%	7.5%	1.5%	4.98×	13.27

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	81.2%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	77.5%	78.8%	—	—	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	56.2%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Over 1.5 in 1st half	43.8%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Under 0.5 in 1st half	22.5%	21.2%	—	—	4.72
Over 2.5 in 1st half	18.8%	13.8%	—	—	7.24

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	87.3%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	66.2%	67.4%	—	—	1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	60.8%	61.5%	—	—	1.63
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	39.2%	38.5%	—	—	2.60
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	33.8%	32.6%	—	—	3.07
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	12.7%	14.6%	—	—	6.84

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará not to score in both halves	81.0%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Independiente del Valle not to score in both halves	52.7%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Independiente del Valle to score in both halves	47.3%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Macará to score in both halves	19.0%	15.7%	—	—	6.37

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	62.4%	60.3%	48.9%	1.23×	1.66
Only Independiente del Valle scores	28.2%	26.1%	25.5%	1.03×	3.83
Only Macará scores	6.7%	7.2%	18.0%	0.40×	13.92
Neither team scores	2.6%	4.6%	8.0%	0.57×	21.88

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.4%	22.6%	20.8%	1.09×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	19.0%	17.4%	12.5%	1.40×	5.74
Exactly 2 goals	17.9%	17.4%	26.4%	0.66×	5.74
6 or more goals	14.8%	12.1%	3.2%	3.83×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	13.5%	12.1%	7.4%	1.63×	8.27
Exactly 1 goals	10.8%	12.1%	22.7%	0.53×	8.27
Exactly 0 goals	2.6%	4.4%	8.0%	0.55×	22.68

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	60.8%	58.3%	—	—	1.72
1 goal in 2nd half	26.5%	29.7%	—	—	3.36
No goals in 2nd half	12.7%	14.4%	—	—	6.92

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará not to win both halves	96.7%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Independiente del Valle not to win both halves	74.7%	73.1%	—	—	1.37
Independiente del Valle to win both halves	25.3%	26.9%	—	—	3.72
Macará to win both halves	3.3%	2.8%	—	—	35.87

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle to win either half	75.5%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Macará to win neither half	66.8%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Macará to win either half	33.2%	32.0%	—	—	3.12
Independiente del Valle to win neither half	24.5%	20.5%	—	—	4.88

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macará not to win to nil	93.3%	92.1%	82.0%	1.12×	1.09
Independiente del Valle not to win to nil	71.8%	75.3%	74.5%	1.01×	1.33
Independiente del Valle to win to nil	28.2%	24.7%	25.5%	0.97×	4.04
Macará to win to nil	6.7%	7.9%	18.0%	0.44×	12.58

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle by 3+	23.1%	24.2%	7.8%	3.09×	4.14
Independiente del Valle by 1	22.3%	24.2%	24.9%	0.97×	4.14
Independiente del Valle by 2	18.8%	16.9%	11.9%	1.42×	5.91
Draw	18.1%	16.9%	26.4%	0.64×	5.91
Macará by 1	11.2%	11.8%	18.2%	0.65×	8.48
Macará by 2	4.6%	2.7%	7.4%	0.36×	36.95
Macará by 3+	2.0%	2.7%	4.3%	0.63×	37.03