Independiente Medellín v Alianza FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 30 October 2026 · COL-Primera A · 2627

COL-Primera A results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Independiente Medellín

23:15 UTC

Alianza FC

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 27 Oct, 10:57 · 84h before kick-off

Independiente Medellín win

72.7%

model 70.1%

Draw

17.5%

model 19.7%

Alianza FC win

9.8%

model 10.2%

731810

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (94 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 13.2%
1-0 11.6%
3-0 9.5%
1-1 9.4%
2-1 9.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	54.7%	Under 2.5	45.3%
BTTS yes	45.6%	BTTS no	54.4%
Independiente Medellín 1+	88.5%	Independiente Medellín 2+	63.5%
Alianza FC 1+	50.8%	Alianza FC 2+	15.9%

Expected goals 2.16 – 0.71. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

84/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Independiente Medellín (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 46%

73.1% fair odds 1.37

strong signal · 1214 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Independiente Medellín under 3.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 95%

82.7% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1431 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Independiente Medellín carry the stronger rating, 1609 Elo against 1383.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Independiente Medellín have an estimated 72.7% win probability, against 17.5% for the draw and 9.8% for Alianza FC. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.16 for Independiente Medellín and 0.71 for Alianza FC.

Why Independiente Medellín

Independiente Medellín carry the stronger rating, 1609 Elo against 1383. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 17.5%. Draws run at 29% in this competition.

Why Alianza FC can win

Nothing in the data singles out Alianza FC.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Independiente Medellín, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Alianza FC, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Independiente Medellín: 53% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Alianza FC: 45% possession, 11.6 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Independiente Medellín are the model's most likely outcome at 72.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 13.2%. Confidence 84/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	702010	2.16–0.71	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	73189	2.31–0.68	2-0 13%	57%	45%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín to win	73.4%	73.9%	45.8%	1.61×	1.35
Draw	18.0%	19.4%	29.5%	0.66×	5.16
Alianza FC to win	8.6%	8.2%	24.8%	0.33×	12.22

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín & not both score	45.0%	40.2%	27.1%	1.48×	2.49
Independiente Medellín & both teams score	28.4%	25.2%	18.8%	1.34×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	12.3%	13.3%	18.8%	0.70×	7.54
Draw & not both score	5.7%	8.3%	10.8%	0.77×	12.01
Alianza FC & both teams score	4.4%	4.9%	11.5%	0.42×	20.49
Alianza FC & not both score	4.3%	4.9%	13.4%	0.36×	20.49

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín & over 1.5	62.4%	54.7%	33.8%	1.62×	1.83
Independiente Medellín & over 2.5	49.0%	45.1%	25.5%	1.77×	2.22
Independiente Medellín & under 3.5	43.9%	40.3%	35.7%	1.13×	2.48
Independiente Medellín & over 3.5	29.5%	26.1%	10.2%	2.54×	3.84
Independiente Medellín & under 2.5	24.4%	21.6%	20.5%	1.05×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	14.3%	12.8%	23.7%	0.54×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	14.3%	12.8%	23.7%	0.54×	7.79
Draw & over 1.5	12.3%	12.8%	18.8%	0.68×	7.79
Independiente Medellín & under 1.5	11.0%	12.8%	12.2%	1.05×	7.79
Alianza FC & under 3.5	6.9%	7.9%	19.9%	0.40×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	5.7%	7.9%	10.8%	0.73×	12.63
Alianza FC & over 1.5	5.9%	7.9%	16.5%	0.48×	12.63
Alianza FC & over 2.5	4.7%	4.8%	12.9%	0.37×	20.81
Alianza FC & under 2.5	4.0%	4.8%	12.1%	0.40×	20.82
Draw & over 2.5	3.7%	4.8%	6.0%	0.81×	20.82
Draw & over 3.5	3.7%	4.8%	6.0%	0.81×	20.82
Alianza FC & under 1.5	2.8%	4.8%	8.4%	0.57×	20.82
Alianza FC & over 3.5	1.7%	4.8%	5.0%	0.96×	20.83

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (1UP)	81.7%	87.5%	—	—	1.14
Alianza FC (1UP)	23.9%	22.6%	—	—	4.42

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (2UP)	73.4%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Alianza FC (2UP)	8.6%	8.6%	—	—	11.64

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín to win 2nd half	59.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
2nd half drawn	29.2%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
Alianza FC to win 2nd half	11.2%	10.9%	—	—	9.16

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC under 1.5 in 2nd half	93.6%	91.9%	—	—	1.09
Alianza FC under 0.5 in 2nd half	66.5%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Alianza FC over 0.5 in 2nd half	33.5%	30.5%	—	—	3.28
Alianza FC over 1.5 in 2nd half	6.4%	8.1%	—	—	12.36

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín over 0.5 in 2nd half	73.1%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Independiente Medellín under 1.5 in 2nd half	62.2%	63.1%	—	—	1.59
Independiente Medellín over 1.5 in 2nd half	37.8%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
Independiente Medellín under 0.5 in 2nd half	26.9%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (+0.5)	91.4%	92.1%	75.2%	1.22×	1.09
Independiente Medellín (-0.5)	73.4%	73.7%	45.8%	1.61×	1.36
Alianza FC (+2.5)	71.4%	73.7%	91.8%	0.80×	1.36
Independiente Medellín (-1.5)	50.5%	52.4%	20.4%	2.57×	1.91
Alianza FC (+1.5)	49.5%	47.6%	79.6%	0.60×	2.10
Independiente Medellín (-2.5)	28.6%	26.3%	8.2%	3.22×	3.80
Alianza FC (+0.5)	26.6%	26.3%	54.2%	0.49×	3.80
Alianza FC (-0.5)	8.6%	7.9%	24.8%	0.32×	12.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC to concede	90.0%	91.6%	75.9%	1.21×	1.09
Alianza FC clean sheet	10.0%	8.4%	24.1%	0.35×	11.86

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC to concede in 1st half	62.9%	64.6%	—	—	1.55
Alianza FC clean sheet in 1st half	37.1%	35.4%	—	—	2.82

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC to concede in 2nd half	73.1%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Alianza FC clean sheet in 2nd half	26.9%	28.5%	—	—	3.51

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC under 6.5 corners	92.6%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Alianza FC under 5.5 corners	86.3%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Alianza FC under 4.5 corners	76.3%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Alianza FC under 3.5 corners	61.6%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Alianza FC over 2.5 corners	57.2%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Alianza FC under 2.5 corners	42.8%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Alianza FC over 3.5 corners	38.4%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Alianza FC over 4.5 corners	23.7%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Alianza FC over 5.5 corners	13.7%	14.8%	—	—	6.77
Alianza FC over 6.5 corners	7.4%	10.1%	—	—	9.90

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC under 3.5 goals	99.5%	97.5%	98.1%	0.99×	1.03
Alianza FC under 2.5 goals	96.8%	97.5%	92.9%	1.05×	1.03
Alianza FC under 1.5 goals	85.1%	87.8%	74.2%	1.18×	1.14
Alianza FC under 0.5 goals	50.7%	53.5%	37.8%	1.42×	1.87
Alianza FC over 0.5 goals	49.3%	46.5%	62.2%	0.75×	2.15
Alianza FC over 1.5 goals	14.9%	12.2%	25.8%	0.47×	8.19
Alianza FC over 2.5 goals	3.2%	2.5%	7.1%	0.36×	39.81
Alianza FC over 3.5 goals	0.5%	2.5%	1.9%	1.29×	39.94

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC under 1.5 in 1st half	96.9%	96.2%	—	—	1.04
Alianza FC under 0.5 in 1st half	76.2%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Alianza FC over 0.5 in 1st half	23.8%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Alianza FC over 1.5 in 1st half	3.1%	3.8%	—	—	26.16

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC scores equally in both	56.4%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
Alianza FC scores more in 2nd half	26.9%	26.5%	—	—	3.78
Alianza FC scores more in 1st half	16.7%	18.0%	—	—	5.57

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (away no bet)	80.3%	82.5%	60.8%	1.36×	1.21
Draw (away no bet)	19.7%	17.5%	39.2%	0.45×	5.73

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC even goals	62.8%	59.1%	57.6%	1.03×	1.69
Alianza FC odd goals	37.2%	40.9%	42.4%	0.96×	2.45

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	81.5%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals	18.5%	16.9%	—	—	5.92

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	69.2%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Both halves under 1.5 goals	30.8%	32.0%	—	—	3.12

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	66.6%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Independiente Medellín to score 2+ in a row	61.6%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Either team to score 3+ in a row	34.2%	29.0%	—	—	3.45
Independiente Medellín to score 3+ in a row	33.1%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
Alianza FC to score 2+ in a row	9.0%	5.5%	—	—	18.06
Alianza FC to score 3+ in a row	1.3%	2.5%	—	—	40.18

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín corners (+3.5)	95.1%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Independiente Medellín corners (+2.5)	91.5%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Independiente Medellín corners (+1.5)	86.0%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Alianza FC corners (+3.5)	64.0%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Independiente Medellín corners (-1.5)	57.8%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Alianza FC corners (+2.5)	53.4%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Independiente Medellín corners (-2.5)	46.6%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Alianza FC corners (+1.5)	42.2%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Independiente Medellín corners (-3.5)	36.0%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Alianza FC corners (-1.5)	14.0%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Alianza FC corners (-2.5)	8.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Alianza FC corners (-3.5)	4.9%	4.3%	—	—	23.43

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	51.5%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	26.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	21.7%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	84.4%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	78.3%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	70.7%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	61.7%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	59.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	51.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	48.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	40.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	38.3%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	29.3%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	21.7%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	15.6%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-0	13.4%	11.5%	8.4%	1.36×	8.71
1-0	11.0%	11.5%	12.2%	0.94×	8.72
3-0	10.3%	11.5%	4.6%	2.51×	8.72
1-1	8.6%	7.4%	13.0%	0.57×	13.51
2-1	9.1%	7.4%	10.9%	0.68×	13.51
Any other score	8.5%	7.4%	2.4%	3.14×	13.51
3-1	7.0%	7.4%	3.5%	2.14×	13.51
0-0	5.7%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.51
4-0	6.0%	7.4%	1.7%	4.45×	13.51
0-1	2.8%	1.7%	8.4%	0.20×	58.30
0-2	1.2%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.31
0-3	0.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.55×	58.32
0-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.6%	3.10×	58.32
1-2	2.7%	1.7%	7.1%	0.24×	58.30
1-3	0.6%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.32
1-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.48×	58.32
2-2	3.1%	1.7%	5.3%	0.33×	58.30
2-3	0.7%	1.7%	1.9%	0.88×	58.32
2-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	12.38×	58.32
3-2	2.4%	1.7%	2.4%	0.73×	58.31
3-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.06×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	6.19×	58.32
4-1	4.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.48×	58.30
4-2	1.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.48×	58.31
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.6%	3.10×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	12.38×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (2nd half DNB)	84.1%	82.7%	—	—	1.21
Alianza FC (2nd half DNB)	15.9%	17.3%	—	—	5.79

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín leading at HT (DNB)	84.4%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Alianza FC leading at HT (DNB)	15.6%	14.4%	—	—	6.96

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín or draw (1X)	91.4%	91.8%	75.2%	1.22×	1.09
Independiente Medellín or Alianza FC (12)	82.0%	80.6%	70.5%	1.14×	1.24
Alianza FC or draw (X2)	26.6%	26.1%	54.2%	0.48×	3.83

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín or draw at HT	90.1%	90.8%	—	—	1.10
Independiente Medellín or Alianza FC at HT	63.4%	60.9%	—	—	1.64
Alianza FC or draw at HT	46.5%	51.2%	—	—	1.95

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín or draw (1UP)	91.4%	93.5%	—	—	1.07
Alianza FC or draw (1UP)	26.6%	31.3%	—	—	3.20

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín or draw in 2nd half	88.8%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Independiente Medellín or Alianza FC in 2nd half	70.8%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Alianza FC or draw in 2nd half	40.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	54.4%	50.4%	—	—	1.99
Neither half drawn	45.6%	49.6%	—	—	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (DNB)	89.5%	87.3%	64.9%	1.34×	1.15
Alianza FC (DNB)	10.5%	12.7%	35.1%	0.36×	7.84

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín to score first	72.8%	75.5%	—	—	1.32
Alianza FC to score first	21.5%	22.5%	—	—	4.45
No goal scored	5.7%	7.5%	—	—	13.31

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	54.9%	51.3%	51.1%	1.00×	1.95
Both teams to score	45.1%	48.7%	48.9%	1.00×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	36.5%	38.4%	36.0%	1.07×	2.60
Not both score & under 2.5	34.1%	34.6%	43.1%	0.80×	2.89
Not both score & over 2.5	20.9%	27.8%	8.2%	3.41×	3.59
Both score & under 2.5	8.6%	8.3%	13.0%	0.64×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	90.0%	89.0%	88.6%	1.00×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	10.0%	11.0%	11.4%	0.97×	9.08

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	75.3%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	24.7%	25.1%	—	—	3.98

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	63.9%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Both score 2nd half only	21.1%	21.2%	—	—	4.72
Both score 1st half only	11.4%	10.7%	—	—	9.33
Both score in both halves	3.7%	4.9%	—	—	20.41

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.9%	83.5%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	15.1%	16.5%	—	—	6.07

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	59.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	40.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.6%	47.2%	48.1%	0.98×	2.12
4-6 goals	31.7%	30.7%	19.5%	1.57×	3.25
0-1 goals	19.5%	20.3%	31.2%	0.65×	4.94
7+ goals	3.2%	1.8%	1.5%	1.21×	54.24

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC to score exactly 0	50.7%	47.0%	37.8%	1.24×	2.13
Alianza FC to score exactly 1	34.5%	33.8%	36.6%	0.93×	2.96
Alianza FC to score exactly 2	11.7%	12.9%	18.8%	0.68×	7.76
Alianza FC to score 3+	3.2%	4.6%	7.1%	0.65×	21.86

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín to score 3+	40.6%	35.1%	15.5%	2.26×	2.85
Independiente Medellín to score exactly 2	26.5%	26.6%	26.2%	1.01×	3.77
Independiente Medellín to score exactly 1	23.0%	23.3%	34.5%	0.68×	4.29
Independiente Medellín to score exactly 0	10.0%	10.4%	24.1%	0.43×	9.64

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín leading at HT	53.5%	48.8%	—	—	2.05
Draw at HT	36.6%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
Alianza FC leading at HT	9.9%	9.2%	—	—	10.84

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín -1: 1	50.5%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Independiente Medellín -1: 2	26.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Independiente Medellín -1: X	22.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (0:1)	50.5%	51.2%	20.4%	2.52×	1.95
Alianza FC (0:1)	26.6%	27.0%	54.2%	0.50×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	22.9%	24.2%	25.6%	0.95×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC (0:2)	49.5%	51.3%	79.6%	0.64×	1.95
Independiente Medellín (0:2)	28.6%	24.1%	8.2%	2.95×	4.14
Draw (0:2)	22.0%	20.3%	12.3%	1.64×	4.93

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC (0:3)	71.4%	77.6%	91.8%	0.85×	1.29
Draw (0:3)	15.1%	16.1%	5.4%	2.99×	6.20
Independiente Medellín (0:3)	13.5%	9.9%	2.9%	3.40×	10.10

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC (0:4)	86.5%	91.9%	97.1%	0.95×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	8.1%	4.7%	1.9%	2.40×	21.48
Independiente Medellín (0:4)	5.4%	4.6%	1.1%	4.16×	21.71

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (1:0)	91.4%	92.6%	75.2%	1.23×	1.08
Draw (1:0)	6.3%	6.9%	17.3%	0.40×	14.52
Alianza FC (1:0)	2.4%	3.3%	7.6%	0.43×	30.76

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (2:0)	97.6%	96.8%	92.4%	1.05×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	1.9%	2.3%	5.0%	0.46×	43.81
Alianza FC (2:0)	0.5%	2.3%	2.8%	0.82×	43.90

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.6%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
1st half highest scoring	27.7%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	24.6%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín clean sheet	50.7%	53.1%	37.8%	1.40×	1.88
Independiente Medellín to concede	49.3%	46.9%	62.2%	0.75×	2.13

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín clean sheet in 1st half	76.2%	77.3%	—	—	1.29
Independiente Medellín to concede in 1st half	23.8%	22.7%	—	—	4.40

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín clean sheet in 2nd half	66.5%	66.6%	—	—	1.50
Independiente Medellín to concede in 2nd half	33.5%	33.4%	—	—	3.00

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín over 2.5 corners	84.5%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Independiente Medellín over 3.5 corners	72.3%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Independiente Medellín under 6.5 corners	66.4%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Independiente Medellín over 4.5 corners	58.7%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Independiente Medellín under 5.5 corners	54.6%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Independiente Medellín over 5.5 corners	45.4%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Independiente Medellín under 4.5 corners	41.3%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Independiente Medellín over 6.5 corners	33.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Independiente Medellín under 3.5 corners	27.7%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Independiente Medellín under 2.5 corners	15.5%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín over 0.5 goals	90.0%	92.2%	75.9%	1.21×	1.09
Independiente Medellín under 3.5 goals	79.8%	77.8%	95.3%	0.82×	1.29
Independiente Medellín over 1.5 goals	67.1%	67.9%	41.6%	1.64×	1.47
Independiente Medellín under 2.5 goals	59.4%	58.7%	84.5%	0.69×	1.70
Independiente Medellín over 2.5 goals	40.6%	41.3%	15.5%	2.66×	2.42
Independiente Medellín under 1.5 goals	32.9%	32.1%	58.4%	0.55×	3.12
Independiente Medellín over 3.5 goals	20.2%	22.2%	4.7%	4.72×	4.50
Independiente Medellín under 0.5 goals	10.0%	7.8%	24.1%	0.32×	12.81

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín under 1.5 in 1st half	73.9%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Independiente Medellín over 0.5 in 1st half	62.9%	64.4%	—	—	1.55
Independiente Medellín under 0.5 in 1st half	37.1%	35.6%	—	—	2.81
Independiente Medellín over 1.5 in 1st half	26.1%	20.5%	—	—	4.87

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín scores more in 2nd half	44.0%	41.8%	—	—	2.40
Independiente Medellín scores more in 1st half	28.2%	27.9%	—	—	3.59
Independiente Medellín scores equally in both	27.9%	27.9%	—	—	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	67.5%	64.2%	54.3%	1.18×	1.56
Alianza FC (home no bet)	32.5%	35.8%	45.7%	0.78×	2.79

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín even goals	50.5%	50.7%	53.3%	0.95×	1.97
Independiente Medellín odd goals	49.5%	49.3%	46.7%	1.06×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	28.4%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
HT 1-0	27.9%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
HT 2-0	13.9%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
Any other HT score	8.1%	6.9%	—	—	14.53
HT 1-1	7.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.54
HT 0-1	7.6%	6.9%	—	—	14.54
HT 2-1	3.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.17
HT 0-2	1.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.35
HT 1-2	1.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.35
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.39

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín at HT / Independiente Medellín at FT	49.3%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Draw at HT / Independiente Medellín at FT	21.4%	21.6%	—	—	4.63
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.5%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Alianza FC at HT / Alianza FC at FT	4.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.88
Draw at HT / Alianza FC at FT	3.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.90
Independiente Medellín at HT / Draw at FT	3.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.91
Alianza FC at HT / Draw at FT	3.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.93
Alianza FC at HT / Independiente Medellín at FT	2.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.94
Independiente Medellín at HT / Alianza FC at FT	0.7%	3.4%	—	—	29.01

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín to score last	73.0%	73.1%	—	—	1.37
Alianza FC to score last	21.3%	25.3%	—	—	3.95
No goal scored	5.7%	7.5%	—	—	13.31

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.3%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Independiente Medellín to lead by 1 at any time	81.7%	87.5%	—	—	1.14
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	60.4%	61.2%	—	—	1.64
Independiente Medellín to lead by 2 at any time	55.8%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	32.1%	29.7%	—	—	3.37
Independiente Medellín to lead by 3 at any time	31.3%	29.7%	—	—	3.37
Alianza FC to lead by 1 at any time	23.9%	19.6%	—	—	5.12
Alianza FC to lead by 2 at any time	4.9%	1.6%	—	—	60.63
Alianza FC to lead by 3 at any time	0.8%	1.6%	—	—	64.51

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín most corners	68.8%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Alianza FC most corners	21.6%	25.9%	—	—	3.87
Corners level	9.6%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.1%	87.4%	85.7%	1.02×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.3%	78.7%	67.5%	1.17×	1.27
1-4 goals	76.1%	78.7%	80.1%	0.98×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.3%	72.3%	65.4%	1.11×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.3%	63.3%	59.7%	1.06×	1.58
1-3 goals	59.4%	59.1%	68.4%	0.86×	1.69
3-6 goals	54.1%	53.2%	42.7%	1.25×	1.88
3-5 goals	49.2%	48.5%	40.6%	1.19×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.6%	48.4%	48.1%	1.01×	2.06
3-4 goals	39.2%	39.2%	34.9%	1.12×	2.55
1-2 goals	36.9%	39.2%	45.3%	0.86×	2.55
4-6 goals	31.7%	35.2%	19.5%	1.80×	2.84
4-5 goals	26.7%	30.2%	17.5%	1.73×	3.31
5-6 goals	15.0%	14.8%	7.9%	1.88×	6.75
7+ goals	3.2%	2.6%	1.5%	1.68×	39.12

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín never behind	70.4%	76.9%	—	—	1.30
Alianza FC never behind	12.6%	12.1%	—	—	8.25

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.6%	50.9%	50.4%	1.01×	1.97
Even number of goals	51.4%	49.1%	49.6%	0.99×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.2%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.8%	48.2%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.0%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.0%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.3%	92.3%	89.2%	1.03×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	91.8%	92.3%	96.4%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	81.8%	82.3%	90.7%	0.91×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	80.5%	82.3%	68.8%	1.20×	1.22
Under 3.5 goals	65.0%	66.3%	79.1%	0.84×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	57.4%	58.6%	44.0%	1.33×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	42.6%	41.4%	56.0%	0.74×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	35.0%	33.7%	20.9%	1.61×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	19.5%	17.7%	31.2%	0.57×	5.65
Over 4.5 goals	18.2%	17.7%	9.3%	1.91×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	8.2%	7.7%	3.6%	2.15×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	5.7%	7.7%	10.8%	0.72×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.6%	97.2%	98.4%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.9%	92.4%	96.2%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	78.1%	75.9%	89.5%	0.85×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	74.7%	72.4%	58.6%	1.24×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	55.0%	51.9%	72.8%	0.71×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.1%	48.1%	27.2%	1.77×	2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	25.3%	27.6%	41.4%	0.67×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	21.9%	24.1%	10.5%	2.30×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.1%	7.6%	3.8%	1.99×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.4%	2.8%	1.6%	1.81×	35.60

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.5%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.6%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	63.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	36.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.4%	28.7%	—	—	3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.5%	11.0%	—	—	9.10

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.9%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	75.1%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	51.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	48.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.9%	20.5%	—	—	4.88
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.1%	17.1%	—	—	5.85

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC not to score in both halves	92.0%	90.5%	—	—	1.11
Independiente Medellín not to score in both halves	54.0%	56.0%	—	—	1.79
Independiente Medellín to score in both halves	46.0%	44.0%	—	—	2.27
Alianza FC to score in both halves	8.0%	9.5%	—	—	10.50

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	45.1%	50.6%	48.9%	1.04×	1.98
Only Independiente Medellín scores	45.0%	46.6%	27.1%	1.72×	2.15
Neither team scores	5.7%	7.1%	10.8%	0.66×	14.02
Only Alianza FC scores	4.3%	4.6%	13.4%	0.35×	21.55

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.2%	22.6%	24.9%	0.91×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.3%	0.97×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	16.7%	17.5%	11.8%	1.48×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	13.8%	12.1%	20.5%	0.59×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	10.0%	7.6%	5.8%	1.31×	13.13
6 or more goals	8.2%	7.6%	3.6%	2.11×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	5.7%	7.6%	10.8%	0.70×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.5%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
No goals in 1st half	28.4%	28.6%	—	—	3.49
2 goals in 1st half	22.7%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	13.5%	10.9%	—	—	9.18

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	51.6%	51.1%	—	—	1.96
1 goal in 2nd half	30.3%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	18.1%	16.8%	—	—	5.95

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC not to win both halves	98.9%	97.3%	—	—	1.03
Independiente Medellín not to win both halves	68.0%	69.8%	—	—	1.43
Independiente Medellín to win both halves	32.0%	30.2%	—	—	3.31
Alianza FC to win both halves	1.1%	2.7%	—	—	36.77

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín to win either half	81.0%	83.4%	—	—	1.20
Alianza FC to win neither half	80.0%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Alianza FC to win either half	20.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Independiente Medellín to win neither half	19.0%	16.6%	—	—	6.01

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza FC not to win to nil	95.7%	96.1%	86.6%	1.11×	1.04
Independiente Medellín not to win to nil	55.0%	59.0%	72.9%	0.81×	1.70
Independiente Medellín to win to nil	45.0%	41.0%	27.1%	1.51×	2.44
Alianza FC to win to nil	4.3%	3.9%	13.4%	0.29×	25.67

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín by 3+	28.6%	27.9%	8.2%	3.41×	3.59
Independiente Medellín by 1	22.9%	24.1%	25.6%	0.94×	4.15
Independiente Medellín by 2	22.0%	24.1%	12.3%	1.96×	4.15
Draw	18.0%	17.1%	29.5%	0.58×	5.87
Alianza FC by 1	6.3%	7.2%	17.3%	0.42×	13.91
Alianza FC by 2	1.9%	2.7%	5.0%	0.54×	36.91
Alianza FC by 3+	0.5%	2.7%	2.8%	0.98×	36.96