Independiente Santa Fe v Deportes Tolima — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 12 September 2026 · COL-Primera A · 2627
COL-Primera A
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyIndependiente Santa Fe win
43.4%
model 42.5%
Draw
28.3%
model 29.4%
Deportes Tolima win
28.3%
model 28.1%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (6,406 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 14.0%
- 1-0 10.8%
- 0-0 9.9%
- 2-1 8.7%
- 2-0 8.2%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 43.9% | Under 2.5 | 56.1% |
| BTTS yes | 50.0% | BTTS no | 50.0% |
| Independiente Santa Fe 1+ | 74.5% | Independiente Santa Fe 2+ | 39.7% |
| Deportes Tolima 1+ | 65.6% | Deportes Tolima 2+ | 28.9% |
Expected goals 1.37 – 1.07. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
83/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
96%
★ Best pick
Deportes Tolima (+0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 54%
58.4% fair odds 1.71
moderate signal · 11329 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Deportes Tolima not to win to nil
Win to nil · usually 87%
83.0% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 12208 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
- They have had 9 days' rest to Deportes Tolima's 4.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Independiente Santa Fe have an estimated 43.4% win probability, against 28.3% for the draw and 28.3% for Deportes Tolima. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.37 for Independiente Santa Fe and 1.07 for Deportes Tolima.
Why Independiente Santa Fe
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. They have had 9 days' rest to Deportes Tolima's 4.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 28.3%. Draws run at 29% in this competition.
Why Deportes Tolima can win
Nothing in the data singles out Deportes Tolima.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Independiente Santa Fe, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Deportes Tolima, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Independiente Santa Fe: 46% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Deportes Tolima: 58% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-11 15:19 · team_stats 2026-09-11 06:03 · availability 2026-09-11 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·
Independiente Santa Fe are the model's most likely outcome at 43.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.0%. Confidence 83/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.37–1.07 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| ai-blend-oos | 1.38–0.99 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg | 1.36–0.93 | 1-1 14% | 40% | 46% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.33–0.87 | 1-0 14% | 38% | 43% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe to win | 45.8% | 47.5% | 45.8% | 1.04× | 2.10 |
| Draw | 29.9% | 27.7% | 29.4% | 0.94× | 3.61 |
| Deportes Tolima to win | 24.3% | 24.6% | 24.9% | 0.99× | 4.07 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe & not both score | 28.3% | 25.5% | 27.1% | 0.94× | 3.93 |
| Draw & both teams score | 18.6% | 18.0% | 18.8% | 0.96× | 5.55 |
| Independiente Santa Fe & both teams score | 17.5% | 18.0% | 18.9% | 0.95× | 5.55 |
| Deportes Tolima & not both score | 14.3% | 13.3% | 13.5% | 0.98× | 7.54 |
| Draw & not both score | 11.3% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 1.22× | 7.55 |
| Deportes Tolima & both teams score | 10.0% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 1.15× | 7.55 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe & under 3.5 | 35.1% | 34.7% | 35.7% | 0.97× | 2.89 |
| Independiente Santa Fe & over 1.5 | 33.2% | 31.0% | 33.9% | 0.92× | 3.22 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 25.3% | 25.9% | 23.8% | 1.09× | 3.86 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 25.3% | 25.9% | 23.8% | 1.09× | 3.86 |
| Independiente Santa Fe & over 2.5 | 23.7% | 21.6% | 25.6% | 0.85× | 4.63 |
| Independiente Santa Fe & under 2.5 | 22.1% | 21.6% | 20.4% | 1.06× | 4.63 |
| Deportes Tolima & under 3.5 | 19.8% | 18.0% | 20.0% | 0.90× | 5.57 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 18.6% | 18.0% | 18.8% | 0.96× | 5.57 |
| Deportes Tolima & over 1.5 | 16.1% | 18.0% | 16.5% | 1.09× | 5.57 |
| Independiente Santa Fe & under 1.5 | 12.7% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 1.06× | 7.78 |
| Deportes Tolima & under 2.5 | 12.5% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 1.06× | 7.78 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 11.3% | 12.9% | 10.8% | 1.19× | 7.78 |
| Deportes Tolima & over 2.5 | 11.7% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 1.00× | 7.78 |
| Independiente Santa Fe & over 3.5 | 10.7% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 1.25× | 7.78 |
| Deportes Tolima & under 1.5 | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 0.94× | 12.57 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 0.83× | 20.57 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 0.83× | 20.57 |
| Deportes Tolima & over 3.5 | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 0.97× | 20.57 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe (1UP) | 59.3% | 58.2% | — | — | 1.72 |
| Deportes Tolima (1UP) | 40.0% | 39.1% | — | — | 2.56 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe (2UP) | 45.8% | 49.8% | — | — | 2.01 |
| Deportes Tolima (2UP) | 24.3% | 23.8% | — | — | 4.20 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half drawn | 39.9% | 36.0% | — | — | 2.78 |
| Independiente Santa Fe to win 2nd half | 36.9% | 35.9% | — | — | 2.78 |
| Deportes Tolima to win 2nd half | 23.3% | 23.1% | — | — | 4.32 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima under 1.5 in 2nd half | 89.3% | 86.8% | — | — | 1.15 |
| Deportes Tolima under 0.5 in 2nd half | 57.4% | 55.4% | — | — | 1.80 |
| Deportes Tolima over 0.5 in 2nd half | 42.6% | 44.6% | — | — | 2.25 |
| Deportes Tolima over 1.5 in 2nd half | 10.7% | 13.2% | — | — | 7.57 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe under 1.5 in 2nd half | 81.7% | 82.4% | — | — | 1.21 |
| Independiente Santa Fe over 0.5 in 2nd half | 54.0% | 53.4% | — | — | 1.87 |
| Independiente Santa Fe under 0.5 in 2nd half | 46.0% | 46.6% | — | — | 2.15 |
| Independiente Santa Fe over 1.5 in 2nd half | 18.3% | 17.6% | — | — | 5.69 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima (+2.5) | 91.7% | 92.1% | 91.8% | 1.00× | 1.09 |
| Deportes Tolima (+1.5) | 77.6% | 78.3% | 79.6% | 0.98× | 1.28 |
| Independiente Santa Fe (+0.5) | 75.7% | 78.3% | 75.1% | 1.04× | 1.28 |
| Deportes Tolima (+0.5) | 54.2% | 52.1% | 54.2% | 0.96× | 1.92 |
| Independiente Santa Fe (-0.5) | 45.8% | 47.9% | 45.8% | 1.05× | 2.09 |
| Deportes Tolima (-0.5) | 24.3% | 21.7% | 24.9% | 0.87× | 4.62 |
| Independiente Santa Fe (-1.5) | 22.4% | 21.7% | 20.4% | 1.06× | 4.62 |
| Independiente Santa Fe (-2.5) | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 0.96× | 12.69 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima to concede | 74.4% | 77.2% | 75.8% | 1.02× | 1.30 |
| Deportes Tolima clean sheet | 25.6% | 22.8% | 24.2% | 0.95× | 4.38 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima clean sheet in 1st half | 55.6% | 58.4% | — | — | 1.71 |
| Deportes Tolima to concede in 1st half | 44.4% | 41.6% | — | — | 2.40 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima to concede in 2nd half | 54.0% | 52.9% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Deportes Tolima clean sheet in 2nd half | 46.0% | 47.1% | — | — | 2.13 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima under 6.5 corners | 86.4% | 85.2% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Deportes Tolima under 5.5 corners | 77.8% | 76.0% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Deportes Tolima over 2.5 corners | 67.7% | 67.6% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Deportes Tolima under 4.5 corners | 65.5% | 67.6% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Deportes Tolima over 3.5 corners | 50.1% | 53.0% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Deportes Tolima under 3.5 corners | 49.9% | 47.0% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Deportes Tolima over 4.5 corners | 34.5% | 32.4% | — | — | 3.08 |
| Deportes Tolima under 2.5 corners | 32.3% | 32.4% | — | — | 3.08 |
| Deportes Tolima over 5.5 corners | 22.2% | 24.0% | — | — | 4.16 |
| Deportes Tolima over 6.5 corners | 13.6% | 14.8% | — | — | 6.76 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima under 3.5 goals | 98.5% | 97.4% | 98.1% | 0.99× | 1.03 |
| Deportes Tolima under 2.5 goals | 93.3% | 92.2% | 92.9% | 0.99× | 1.09 |
| Deportes Tolima under 1.5 goals | 76.3% | 76.1% | 74.3% | 1.02× | 1.31 |
| Deportes Tolima over 0.5 goals | 60.3% | 63.5% | 62.2% | 1.02× | 1.58 |
| Deportes Tolima under 0.5 goals | 39.7% | 36.5% | 37.8% | 0.97× | 2.74 |
| Deportes Tolima over 1.5 goals | 23.7% | 23.9% | 25.7% | 0.93× | 4.19 |
| Deportes Tolima over 2.5 goals | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 1.10× | 12.83 |
| Deportes Tolima over 3.5 goals | 1.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.32× | 38.92 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima under 1.5 in 1st half | 94.6% | 94.3% | — | — | 1.06 |
| Deportes Tolima under 0.5 in 1st half | 69.1% | 68.7% | — | — | 1.46 |
| Deportes Tolima over 0.5 in 1st half | 30.9% | 31.3% | — | — | 3.19 |
| Deportes Tolima over 1.5 in 1st half | 5.4% | 5.7% | — | — | 17.42 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima scores equally in both | 48.2% | 48.5% | — | — | 2.06 |
| Deportes Tolima scores more in 2nd half | 32.3% | 34.1% | — | — | 2.93 |
| Deportes Tolima scores more in 1st half | 19.5% | 18.1% | — | — | 5.53 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe (away no bet) | 60.5% | 62.0% | 60.9% | 1.02× | 1.61 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 39.5% | 38.0% | 39.1% | 0.97× | 2.63 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima even goals | 57.9% | 56.9% | 57.5% | 0.99× | 1.76 |
| Deportes Tolima odd goals | 42.1% | 43.1% | 42.5% | 1.01× | 2.32 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 90.5% | 92.2% | — | — | 1.09 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 9.5% | 7.8% | — | — | 12.81 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 54.3% | 50.7% | — | — | 1.97 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 45.7% | 49.3% | — | — | 2.03 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 47.3% | 45.9% | — | — | 2.18 |
| Independiente Santa Fe to score 2+ in a row | 33.3% | 29.1% | — | — | 3.43 |
| Deportes Tolima to score 2+ in a row | 17.7% | 16.3% | — | — | 6.13 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 15.0% | 16.3% | — | — | 6.15 |
| Independiente Santa Fe to score 3+ in a row | 11.2% | 12.1% | — | — | 8.25 |
| Deportes Tolima to score 3+ in a row | 3.9% | 2.6% | — | — | 38.22 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe corners (+3.5) | 89.2% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Independiente Santa Fe corners (+2.5) | 83.2% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Deportes Tolima corners (+3.5) | 77.5% | 74.8% | — | — | 1.34 |
| Independiente Santa Fe corners (+1.5) | 75.0% | 70.8% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Deportes Tolima corners (+2.5) | 68.5% | 65.8% | — | — | 1.52 |
| Deportes Tolima corners (+1.5) | 57.9% | 57.1% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Independiente Santa Fe corners (-1.5) | 42.1% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Independiente Santa Fe corners (-2.5) | 31.5% | 34.2% | — | — | 2.93 |
| Deportes Tolima corners (-1.5) | 25.0% | 29.3% | — | — | 3.42 |
| Independiente Santa Fe corners (-3.5) | 22.5% | 25.2% | — | — | 3.97 |
| Deportes Tolima corners (-2.5) | 16.8% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.95 |
| Deportes Tolima corners (-3.5) | 10.8% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.45 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 53.0% | 45.4% | — | — | 2.20 |
| 9-11 corners | 26.8% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.20 |
| 12+ corners | 20.2% | 25.6% | — | — | 3.91 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 85.6% | 83.0% | — | — | 1.21 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 79.8% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 72.3% | 72.5% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 63.3% | 63.3% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 58.1% | 57.9% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 53.0% | 53.2% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 47.0% | 46.8% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 41.9% | 42.1% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 36.7% | 36.7% | — | — | 2.72 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 27.7% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 20.2% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 14.4% | 17.0% | — | — | 5.87 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.1% | — | — | 1.99 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 14.0% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 0.87× | 8.80 |
| 1-0 | 12.7% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 0.94× | 8.80 |
| 0-0 | 11.3% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 1.05× | 8.80 |
| 2-0 | 9.4% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 0.87× | 13.52 |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | 7.4% | 11.0% | 0.67× | 13.53 |
| 0-1 | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 0.87× | 13.53 |
| 1-2 | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 1.04× | 13.53 |
| 0-2 | 4.3% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 0.46× | 57.66 |
| 0-3 | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.56× | 57.67 |
| 0-4 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 3.12× | 57.68 |
| 1-3 | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.25× | 57.67 |
| 1-4 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.50× | 57.68 |
| 2-2 | 4.0% | 1.7% | 5.1% | 0.34× | 57.66 |
| 2-3 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.89× | 57.67 |
| 2-4 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 12.48× | 57.68 |
| 3-0 | 4.3% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 0.38× | 57.66 |
| 3-1 | 4.0% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 0.50× | 57.66 |
| 3-2 | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 0.73× | 57.67 |
| 3-3 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.08× | 57.68 |
| 3-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 6.24× | 57.68 |
| 4-0 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.04× | 57.67 |
| 4-1 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.50× | 57.67 |
| 4-2 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.50× | 57.68 |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 3.12× | 57.68 |
| 4-4 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 12.48× | 57.68 |
| Any other score | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 0.73× | 57.67 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe (2nd half DNB) | 61.3% | 61.1% | — | — | 1.64 |
| Deportes Tolima (2nd half DNB) | 38.7% | 38.9% | — | — | 2.57 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe leading at HT (DNB) | 64.1% | 65.7% | — | — | 1.52 |
| Deportes Tolima leading at HT (DNB) | 35.9% | 34.3% | — | — | 2.92 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe or draw (1X) | 75.7% | 75.4% | 75.1% | 1.00× | 1.33 |
| Independiente Santa Fe or Deportes Tolima (12) | 70.1% | 72.3% | 70.6% | 1.02× | 1.38 |
| Deportes Tolima or draw (X2) | 54.2% | 52.5% | 54.2% | 0.97× | 1.91 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe or draw at HT | 81.2% | 84.3% | — | — | 1.19 |
| Deportes Tolima or draw at HT | 66.4% | 66.3% | — | — | 1.51 |
| Independiente Santa Fe or Deportes Tolima at HT | 52.4% | 47.7% | — | — | 2.10 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe or draw (1UP) | 75.7% | 83.8% | — | — | 1.19 |
| Deportes Tolima or draw (1UP) | 54.2% | 59.3% | — | — | 1.69 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe or draw in 2nd half | 76.7% | 76.9% | — | — | 1.30 |
| Deportes Tolima or draw in 2nd half | 63.1% | 64.1% | — | — | 1.56 |
| Independiente Santa Fe or Deportes Tolima in 2nd half | 60.1% | 64.0% | — | — | 1.56 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 67.3% | 69.4% | — | — | 1.44 |
| Neither half drawn | 32.7% | 30.6% | — | — | 3.27 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe (DNB) | 65.4% | 66.7% | 64.8% | 1.03× | 1.50 |
| Deportes Tolima (DNB) | 34.6% | 33.3% | 35.2% | 0.95× | 3.01 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe to score first | 52.9% | 53.9% | — | — | 1.86 |
| Deportes Tolima to score first | 35.8% | 32.7% | — | — | 3.06 |
| No goal scored | 11.3% | 9.7% | — | — | 10.26 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score | 53.9% | 51.6% | 51.1% | 1.01× | 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 46.1% | 48.4% | 48.9% | 0.99× | 2.07 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 45.9% | 44.2% | 43.1% | 1.03× | 2.26 |
| Both score & over 2.5 | 32.1% | 34.4% | 36.0% | 0.95× | 2.91 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 14.0% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 0.94× | 8.15 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 1.02× | 11.94 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 90.6% | 88.9% | 88.8% | 1.00× | 1.13 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 9.4% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 0.99× | 8.99 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 76.6% | 75.1% | — | — | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 23.4% | 24.9% | — | — | 4.02 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 65.8% | 61.9% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 20.3% | 20.8% | — | — | 4.82 |
| Both score 1st half only | 10.8% | 10.7% | — | — | 9.35 |
| Both score in both halves | 3.2% | 5.0% | — | — | 20.10 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 86.1% | 86.1% | — | — | 1.16 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 13.9% | 13.9% | — | — | 7.19 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half without a goal | 54.1% | 53.4% | — | — | 1.87 |
| A goal in each half | 45.9% | 46.6% | — | — | 2.15 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 48.0% | 46.9% | 48.2% | 0.97× | 2.13 |
| 0-1 goals | 32.2% | 30.9% | 31.1% | 0.99× | 3.24 |
| 4-6 goals | 18.9% | 20.2% | 19.4% | 1.04× | 4.94 |
| 7+ goals | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.21× | 54.11 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima to score exactly 0 | 39.7% | 35.8% | 37.8% | 0.95× | 2.80 |
| Deportes Tolima to score exactly 1 | 36.7% | 35.8% | 36.7% | 0.98× | 2.80 |
| Deportes Tolima to score exactly 2 | 17.0% | 19.5% | 18.8% | 1.04× | 5.12 |
| Deportes Tolima to score 3+ | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 1.23× | 11.44 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe to score exactly 1 | 34.9% | 32.7% | 34.4% | 0.95× | 3.06 |
| Independiente Santa Fe to score exactly 0 | 25.6% | 26.2% | 24.2% | 1.08× | 3.82 |
| Independiente Santa Fe to score exactly 2 | 23.8% | 23.4% | 26.1% | 0.89× | 4.28 |
| Independiente Santa Fe to score 3+ | 15.8% | 19.2% | 15.6% | 1.23× | 5.22 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 47.6% | 52.3% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Independiente Santa Fe leading at HT | 33.6% | 33.7% | — | — | 2.96 |
| Deportes Tolima leading at HT | 18.8% | 15.7% | — | — | 6.39 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe -1: 2 | 54.2% | 51.9% | — | — | 1.93 |
| Independiente Santa Fe -1: X | 23.4% | 23.6% | — | — | 4.23 |
| Independiente Santa Fe -1: 1 | 22.4% | 23.6% | — | — | 4.23 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima (0:1) | 54.2% | 51.4% | 54.2% | 0.95× | 1.95 |
| Draw (0:1) | 23.4% | 24.4% | 25.6% | 0.96× | 4.10 |
| Independiente Santa Fe (0:1) | 22.4% | 24.4% | 20.4% | 1.20× | 4.10 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima (0:2) | 77.6% | 79.6% | 79.6% | 1.00× | 1.26 |
| Draw (0:2) | 14.1% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 0.88× | 9.22 |
| Independiente Santa Fe (0:2) | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 0.94× | 13.00 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima (0:3) | 91.7% | 92.7% | 91.8% | 1.01× | 1.08 |
| Draw (0:3) | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 1.09× | 16.95 |
| Independiente Santa Fe (0:3) | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 0.81× | 42.35 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima (0:4) | 97.5% | 98.1% | 97.1% | 1.01× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 0.63× | 81.63 |
| Independiente Santa Fe (0:4) | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.10× | 81.76 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe (1:0) | 75.7% | 78.0% | 75.1% | 1.04× | 1.28 |
| Draw (1:0) | 15.5% | 17.1% | 17.4% | 0.98× | 5.86 |
| Deportes Tolima (1:0) | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 0.92× | 14.30 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe (2:0) | 91.2% | 93.7% | 92.4% | 1.02× | 1.07 |
| Draw (2:0) | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 1.31× | 15.27 |
| Deportes Tolima (2:0) | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 0.87× | 41.43 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 44.4% | 48.8% | — | — | 2.05 |
| Halves equal | 29.5% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 26.1% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.78 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe to concede | 60.3% | 63.9% | 62.2% | 1.03× | 1.57 |
| Independiente Santa Fe clean sheet | 39.7% | 36.1% | 37.8% | 0.96× | 2.77 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe clean sheet in 1st half | 69.1% | 69.0% | — | — | 1.45 |
| Independiente Santa Fe to concede in 1st half | 30.9% | 31.0% | — | — | 3.22 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe clean sheet in 2nd half | 57.4% | 55.6% | — | — | 1.80 |
| Independiente Santa Fe to concede in 2nd half | 42.6% | 44.4% | — | — | 2.25 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe over 2.5 corners | 77.9% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Independiente Santa Fe under 6.5 corners | 76.4% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Independiente Santa Fe under 5.5 corners | 65.6% | 66.7% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Independiente Santa Fe over 3.5 corners | 63.0% | 62.2% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Independiente Santa Fe under 4.5 corners | 52.1% | 52.6% | — | — | 1.90 |
| Independiente Santa Fe over 4.5 corners | 47.9% | 47.4% | — | — | 2.11 |
| Independiente Santa Fe under 3.5 corners | 37.0% | 37.8% | — | — | 2.65 |
| Independiente Santa Fe over 5.5 corners | 34.4% | 33.3% | — | — | 3.01 |
| Independiente Santa Fe over 6.5 corners | 23.6% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
| Independiente Santa Fe under 2.5 corners | 22.1% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe under 3.5 goals | 95.0% | 96.3% | 95.3% | 1.01× | 1.04 |
| Independiente Santa Fe under 2.5 goals | 84.2% | 81.9% | 84.4% | 0.97× | 1.22 |
| Independiente Santa Fe over 0.5 goals | 74.4% | 74.3% | 75.8% | 0.98× | 1.35 |
| Independiente Santa Fe under 1.5 goals | 60.4% | 63.3% | 58.5% | 1.08× | 1.58 |
| Independiente Santa Fe over 1.5 goals | 39.6% | 36.7% | 41.5% | 0.88× | 2.72 |
| Independiente Santa Fe under 0.5 goals | 25.6% | 25.7% | 24.2% | 1.06× | 3.89 |
| Independiente Santa Fe over 2.5 goals | 15.8% | 18.1% | 15.6% | 1.16× | 5.54 |
| Independiente Santa Fe over 3.5 goals | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 0.79× | 26.93 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe under 1.5 in 1st half | 88.3% | 89.8% | — | — | 1.11 |
| Independiente Santa Fe under 0.5 in 1st half | 55.6% | 58.0% | — | — | 1.72 |
| Independiente Santa Fe over 0.5 in 1st half | 44.4% | 42.0% | — | — | 2.38 |
| Independiente Santa Fe over 1.5 in 1st half | 11.7% | 10.2% | — | — | 9.83 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe scores equally in both | 38.6% | 37.7% | — | — | 2.65 |
| Independiente Santa Fe scores more in 2nd half | 36.5% | 37.6% | — | — | 2.66 |
| Independiente Santa Fe scores more in 1st half | 24.9% | 21.6% | — | — | 4.63 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (home no bet) | 55.2% | 56.0% | 54.2% | 1.03× | 1.78 |
| Deportes Tolima (home no bet) | 44.8% | 44.0% | 45.8% | 0.96× | 2.28 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe even goals | 53.3% | 50.4% | 53.3% | 0.95× | 1.98 |
| Independiente Santa Fe odd goals | 46.7% | 49.6% | 46.7% | 1.06× | 2.02 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 38.6% | 38.9% | — | — | 2.57 |
| HT 1-0 | 22.3% | 24.2% | — | — | 4.14 |
| HT 0-1 | 14.0% | 10.9% | — | — | 9.14 |
| HT 1-1 | 8.5% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.00 |
| HT 2-0 | 6.6% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.03 |
| Any other HT score | 2.8% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.50 |
| HT 0-2 | 2.6% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.51 |
| HT 2-1 | 2.4% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.52 |
| HT 1-2 | 1.5% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.59 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.5% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.67 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe at HT / Independiente Santa Fe at FT | 26.9% | 27.0% | — | — | 3.71 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 20.2% | 21.7% | — | — | 4.61 |
| Draw at HT / Independiente Santa Fe at FT | 16.9% | 16.8% | — | — | 5.97 |
| Deportes Tolima at HT / Deportes Tolima at FT | 12.3% | 12.7% | — | — | 7.90 |
| Draw at HT / Deportes Tolima at FT | 10.5% | 12.6% | — | — | 7.91 |
| Independiente Santa Fe at HT / Draw at FT | 5.2% | 6.0% | — | — | 16.73 |
| Deportes Tolima at HT / Draw at FT | 4.5% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.74 |
| Deportes Tolima at HT / Independiente Santa Fe at FT | 2.0% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.84 |
| Independiente Santa Fe at HT / Deportes Tolima at FT | 1.5% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.86 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe to score last | 53.0% | 52.0% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Deportes Tolima to score last | 35.7% | 38.4% | — | — | 2.61 |
| No goal scored | 11.3% | 9.1% | — | — | 10.95 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 88.7% | 90.8% | — | — | 1.10 |
| Independiente Santa Fe to lead by 1 at any time | 59.3% | 55.1% | — | — | 1.81 |
| Deportes Tolima to lead by 1 at any time | 40.0% | 39.1% | — | — | 2.55 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 39.9% | 34.9% | — | — | 2.86 |
| Independiente Santa Fe to lead by 2 at any time | 27.4% | 25.5% | — | — | 3.93 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 12.9% | 10.5% | — | — | 9.55 |
| Deportes Tolima to lead by 2 at any time | 12.6% | 10.5% | — | — | 9.55 |
| Independiente Santa Fe to lead by 3 at any time | 9.9% | 6.7% | — | — | 14.98 |
| Deportes Tolima to lead by 3 at any time | 3.1% | 1.6% | — | — | 61.34 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe most corners | 53.6% | 52.0% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Deportes Tolima most corners | 35.1% | 39.2% | — | — | 2.55 |
| Corners level | 11.3% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.62 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 85.8% | 87.4% | 85.7% | 1.02× | 1.14 |
| 1-4 goals | 80.5% | 83.3% | 80.0% | 1.04× | 1.20 |
| 1-3 goals | 68.9% | 68.9% | 68.5% | 1.01× | 1.45 |
| 2-6 goals | 66.9% | 68.8% | 67.5% | 1.02× | 1.45 |
| 2-5 goals | 64.9% | 63.2% | 65.4% | 0.97× | 1.58 |
| 2-4 goals | 59.6% | 59.3% | 59.7% | 0.99× | 1.69 |
| 1-2 goals | 48.6% | 48.5% | 45.3% | 1.07× | 2.06 |
| 2-3 goals | 48.0% | 48.5% | 48.2% | 1.01× | 2.06 |
| 3-6 goals | 39.2% | 39.3% | 42.6% | 0.92× | 2.55 |
| 3-5 goals | 37.2% | 39.3% | 40.6% | 0.97× | 2.55 |
| 3-4 goals | 31.9% | 35.3% | 34.9% | 1.01× | 2.83 |
| 4-6 goals | 18.9% | 18.9% | 19.4% | 0.97× | 5.30 |
| 4-5 goals | 16.9% | 18.8% | 17.4% | 1.09× | 5.31 |
| 5-6 goals | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 1.13× | 11.15 |
| 7+ goals | 0.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.68× | 39.03 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe never behind | 48.6% | 56.7% | — | — | 1.76 |
| Deportes Tolima never behind | 29.4% | 30.2% | — | — | 3.31 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 47.1% | 51.0% | 50.4% | 1.01× | 1.96 |
| Even number of goals | 52.9% | 49.0% | 49.6% | 0.99× | 2.04 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 57.8% | 57.5% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 42.2% | 42.5% | — | — | 2.35 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 54.3% | 52.1% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 45.7% | 47.9% | — | — | 2.09 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 goals | 97.1% | 95.4% | 96.4% | 0.99× | 1.05 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 91.8% | 92.2% | 90.7% | 1.02× | 1.08 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 88.7% | 87.5% | 89.2% | 0.98× | 1.14 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 80.2% | 82.2% | 79.2% | 1.04× | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.8% | 66.0% | 68.9% | 0.96× | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59.9% | 58.5% | 56.0% | 1.04× | 1.71 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.1% | 41.5% | 44.0% | 0.94× | 2.41 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 32.2% | 34.0% | 31.1% | 1.09× | 2.94 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.8% | 17.8% | 20.8% | 0.86× | 5.60 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 11.3% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 1.16× | 7.97 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 0.84× | 12.84 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 2.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.27× | 21.77 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 99.1% | 97.2% | 98.4% | 0.99× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 96.9% | 97.2% | 96.2% | 1.01× | 1.03 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 90.7% | 92.4% | 89.5% | 1.03× | 1.08 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 75.1% | 75.9% | 72.9% | 1.04× | 1.32 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 55.5% | 55.2% | 58.6% | 0.94× | 1.81 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 44.5% | 44.8% | 41.4% | 1.08× | 2.23 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 24.9% | 24.1% | 27.1% | 0.89× | 4.14 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 9.3% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 0.72× | 13.14 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 0.74× | 35.12 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 0.9% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.82× | 35.17 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 92.8% | 92.7% | — | — | 1.08 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 75.0% | 71.3% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 61.4% | 63.5% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 38.6% | 36.5% | — | — | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 25.0% | 28.7% | — | — | 3.49 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 7.2% | 7.3% | — | — | 13.76 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 85.0% | 82.8% | — | — | 1.21 |
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 73.2% | 77.7% | — | — | 1.29 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 61.1% | 61.6% | — | — | 1.63 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 38.9% | 38.4% | — | — | 2.60 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 26.8% | 22.3% | — | — | 4.49 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 15.0% | 17.2% | — | — | 5.82 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima not to score in both halves | 86.8% | 85.8% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Independiente Santa Fe not to score in both halves | 76.0% | 78.2% | — | — | 1.28 |
| Independiente Santa Fe to score in both halves | 24.0% | 21.8% | — | — | 4.58 |
| Deportes Tolima to score in both halves | 13.2% | 14.2% | — | — | 7.03 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 46.1% | 50.4% | 48.9% | 1.03× | 1.99 |
| Only Independiente Santa Fe scores | 28.3% | 26.1% | 27.1% | 0.96× | 3.83 |
| Only Deportes Tolima scores | 14.3% | 11.1% | 13.5% | 0.82× | 9.01 |
| Neither team scores | 11.3% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 1.02× | 9.02 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 goals | 27.7% | 24.7% | 25.0% | 0.99× | 4.05 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 20.9% | 22.4% | 20.4% | 1.10× | 4.46 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 20.3% | 22.4% | 23.3% | 0.96× | 4.46 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 11.6% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 1.03× | 8.30 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 11.3% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 1.11× | 8.30 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 5.3% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 1.33× | 12.86 |
| 6 or more goals | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.25× | 22.24 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No goals in 1st half | 38.6% | 37.1% | — | — | 2.69 |
| 1 goal in 1st half | 36.4% | 37.1% | — | — | 2.70 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 17.8% | 15.3% | — | — | 6.56 |
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 7.2% | 7.3% | — | — | 13.76 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 38.9% | 40.2% | — | — | 2.49 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 34.4% | 33.4% | — | — | 3.00 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 26.8% | 29.8% | — | — | 3.36 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima not to win both halves | 95.5% | 97.2% | — | — | 1.03 |
| Independiente Santa Fe not to win both halves | 87.4% | 87.9% | — | — | 1.14 |
| Independiente Santa Fe to win both halves | 12.6% | 12.1% | — | — | 8.28 |
| Deportes Tolima to win both halves | 4.5% | 2.8% | — | — | 35.35 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima to win neither half | 62.4% | 65.0% | — | — | 1.54 |
| Independiente Santa Fe to win either half | 57.8% | 59.5% | — | — | 1.68 |
| Independiente Santa Fe to win neither half | 42.2% | 40.5% | — | — | 2.47 |
| Deportes Tolima to win either half | 37.6% | 35.0% | — | — | 2.86 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima not to win to nil | 85.7% | 87.9% | 86.5% | 1.02× | 1.14 |
| Independiente Santa Fe not to win to nil | 71.7% | 75.2% | 72.9% | 1.03× | 1.33 |
| Independiente Santa Fe to win to nil | 28.3% | 24.8% | 27.1% | 0.92× | 4.03 |
| Deportes Tolima to win to nil | 14.3% | 12.1% | 13.5% | 0.90× | 8.28 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 29.9% | 27.7% | 29.4% | 0.94× | 3.61 |
| Independiente Santa Fe by 1 | 23.4% | 24.2% | 25.6% | 0.95× | 4.14 |
| Deportes Tolima by 1 | 15.5% | 16.9% | 17.4% | 0.97× | 5.92 |
| Independiente Santa Fe by 2 | 14.1% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 0.95× | 8.53 |
| Independiente Santa Fe by 3+ | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 0.89× | 13.76 |
| Deportes Tolima by 2 | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 1.45× | 13.77 |
| Deportes Tolima by 3+ | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.01× | 35.61 |
Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run
python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.