Independiente v Deportivo Riestra — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Independiente

20:00 UTC

Deportivo Riestra

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 27 Oct, 10:57 · 297h before kick-off

Independiente win

48.1%

model 45.7%

Draw

29.3%

model 31.5%

Deportivo Riestra win

22.6%

model 22.8%

482923

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 16.5%
0-0 14.9%
1-1 13.4%
0-1 10.2%
2-0 10.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	30.8%	Under 2.5	69.2%
BTTS yes	37.4%	BTTS no	62.6%
Independiente 1+	69.6%	Independiente 2+	33.4%
Deportivo Riestra 1+	53.0%	Deportivo Riestra 2+	17.5%

Expected goals 1.19 – 0.75. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

23/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

Independiente or draw (1X)

Double chance · usually 72%

77.3% fair odds 1.29

moderate signal · 1708 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 1.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 385 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Independiente carry the stronger rating, 1536 Elo against 1466.

Risk factors

The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0026 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Independiente have an estimated 48.1% win probability, against 29.3% for the draw and 22.6% for Deportivo Riestra. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.19 for Independiente and 0.75 for Deportivo Riestra.

Why Independiente

Independiente carry the stronger rating, 1536 Elo against 1466.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.3%. A combined 1.95 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why Deportivo Riestra can win

Nothing in the data singles out Deportivo Riestra.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Independiente, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Deportivo Riestra, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Independiente: 56% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Deportivo Riestra: 31% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 10.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Independiente are the model's most likely outcome at 48.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 16.5%. Confidence 23/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

333 sports channels, playing now →

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	463123	1.19–0.75	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	413524	1.00–0.70	0-0 19%	24%	32%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente to win	41.2%	42.9%	41.8%	1.03×	2.33
Draw	34.6%	30.4%	30.7%	0.99×	3.29
Deportivo Riestra to win	24.2%	24.5%	27.6%	0.89×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente & not both score	30.9%	29.6%	27.7%	1.07×	3.38
Draw & not both score	18.8%	18.0%	14.8%	1.21×	5.56
Deportivo Riestra & not both score	17.9%	18.0%	17.1%	1.05×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	15.8%	18.0%	16.0%	1.13×	5.57
Independiente & both teams score	10.2%	13.3%	14.3%	0.93×	7.54
Deportivo Riestra & both teams score	6.4%	8.3%	10.6%	0.79×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente & under 3.5	36.4%	34.9%	34.8%	1.00×	2.87
Draw & under 2.5	32.2%	30.8%	28.2%	1.09×	3.25
Draw & under 3.5	32.2%	30.8%	28.2%	1.09×	3.25
Independiente & under 2.5	26.9%	26.1%	23.6%	1.10×	3.84
Independiente & over 1.5	23.4%	21.6%	27.8%	0.78×	4.63
Deportivo Riestra & under 3.5	22.1%	21.6%	23.5%	0.92×	4.63
Draw & under 1.5	18.8%	18.0%	14.8%	1.21×	5.55
Independiente & under 1.5	17.7%	18.0%	14.1%	1.27×	5.56
Deportivo Riestra & under 2.5	16.6%	18.0%	14.6%	1.23×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	15.8%	18.0%	16.0%	1.13×	5.56
Independiente & over 2.5	14.3%	12.8%	18.4%	0.70×	7.79
Deportivo Riestra & over 1.5	12.1%	12.8%	17.4%	0.74×	7.79
Deportivo Riestra & under 1.5	12.2%	12.8%	10.3%	1.25×	7.79
Deportivo Riestra & over 2.5	7.6%	7.9%	13.1%	0.60×	12.63
Independiente & over 3.5	4.8%	4.8%	7.2%	0.67×	20.81
Draw & over 2.5	2.4%	4.8%	2.6%	1.83×	20.83
Draw & over 3.5	2.4%	4.8%	2.6%	1.83×	20.83
Deportivo Riestra & over 3.5	2.1%	4.8%	4.2%	1.14×	20.83

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente (1UP)	51.6%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Deportivo Riestra (1UP)	35.8%	34.0%	—	—	2.94

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente (2UP)	41.2%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Deportivo Riestra (2UP)	24.2%	23.9%	—	—	4.18

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	47.0%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Independiente to win 2nd half	31.6%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
Deportivo Riestra to win 2nd half	21.4%	24.3%	—	—	4.12

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Riestra under 1.5 in 2nd half	93.3%	91.9%	—	—	1.09
Deportivo Riestra under 0.5 in 2nd half	65.8%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Deportivo Riestra over 0.5 in 2nd half	34.2%	30.5%	—	—	3.28
Deportivo Riestra over 1.5 in 2nd half	6.7%	8.1%	—	—	12.30

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente under 1.5 in 2nd half	88.8%	88.9%	—	—	1.12
Independiente under 0.5 in 2nd half	56.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Independiente over 0.5 in 2nd half	43.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Independiente over 1.5 in 2nd half	11.2%	11.1%	—	—	9.04

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Riestra (+2.5)	95.3%	96.3%	95.0%	1.01×	1.04
Deportivo Riestra (+1.5)	83.8%	82.6%	82.3%	1.00×	1.21
Independiente (+0.5)	75.8%	78.5%	72.4%	1.08×	1.27
Deportivo Riestra (+0.5)	58.8%	57.1%	58.2%	0.98×	1.75
Independiente (-0.5)	41.2%	42.9%	41.8%	1.03×	2.33
Deportivo Riestra (-0.5)	24.2%	21.5%	27.6%	0.78×	4.65
Independiente (-1.5)	16.2%	17.4%	17.7%	0.99×	5.74
Independiente (-2.5)	4.7%	3.7%	5.0%	0.74×	27.03

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Riestra to concede	63.3%	67.6%	68.2%	0.99×	1.48
Deportivo Riestra clean sheet	36.7%	32.4%	31.8%	1.02×	3.09

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Riestra clean sheet in 1st half	65.0%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Deportivo Riestra to concede in 1st half	35.0%	35.3%	—	—	2.84

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Riestra clean sheet in 2nd half	56.5%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Deportivo Riestra to concede in 2nd half	43.5%	42.8%	—	—	2.34

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Riestra under 6.5 corners	94.8%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Deportivo Riestra under 5.5 corners	89.5%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Deportivo Riestra under 4.5 corners	80.0%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
Deportivo Riestra under 3.5 corners	65.2%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Deportivo Riestra over 2.5 corners	54.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Deportivo Riestra under 2.5 corners	45.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Deportivo Riestra over 3.5 corners	34.8%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Deportivo Riestra over 4.5 corners	20.0%	23.9%	—	—	4.18
Deportivo Riestra over 5.5 corners	10.5%	14.8%	—	—	6.78
Deportivo Riestra over 6.5 corners	5.2%	10.1%	—	—	9.92

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Riestra under 3.5 goals	99.4%	97.5%	98.9%	0.99×	1.03
Deportivo Riestra under 2.5 goals	96.6%	97.5%	93.4%	1.04×	1.03
Deportivo Riestra under 1.5 goals	84.5%	81.5%	78.2%	1.04×	1.23
Deportivo Riestra over 0.5 goals	50.2%	53.5%	57.6%	0.93×	1.87
Deportivo Riestra under 0.5 goals	49.8%	46.5%	42.4%	1.10×	2.15
Deportivo Riestra over 1.5 goals	15.5%	18.5%	21.8%	0.85×	5.41
Deportivo Riestra over 2.5 goals	3.4%	2.5%	6.6%	0.38×	39.80
Deportivo Riestra over 3.5 goals	0.6%	2.5%	1.1%	2.20×	39.94

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Riestra under 1.5 in 1st half	96.8%	96.2%	—	—	1.04
Deportivo Riestra under 0.5 in 1st half	75.6%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Deportivo Riestra over 0.5 in 1st half	24.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.96
Deportivo Riestra over 1.5 in 1st half	3.2%	3.8%	—	—	26.02

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Riestra scores equally in both	55.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Deportivo Riestra scores more in 2nd half	27.3%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Deportivo Riestra scores more in 1st half	16.9%	18.0%	—	—	5.56

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente (away no bet)	54.3%	51.7%	57.7%	0.90×	1.93
Draw (away no bet)	45.7%	48.3%	42.3%	1.14×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Riestra even goals	62.4%	59.1%	58.4%	1.01×	1.69
Deportivo Riestra odd goals	37.6%	40.9%	41.6%	0.98×	2.45

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	95.8%	96.0%	—	—	1.04
Both halves over 1.5 goals	4.2%	4.0%	—	—	24.70

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	61.9%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Not both halves under 1.5	38.1%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	33.4%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
Independiente to score 2+ in a row	22.7%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Deportivo Riestra to score 2+ in a row	12.2%	12.1%	—	—	8.23
Either team to score 3+ in a row	8.3%	5.5%	—	—	18.12
Independiente to score 3+ in a row	6.1%	5.5%	—	—	18.29
Deportivo Riestra to score 3+ in a row	2.2%	2.5%	—	—	39.59

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente corners (+3.5)	98.2%	95.7%	—	—	1.04
Independiente corners (+2.5)	96.5%	95.7%	—	—	1.04
Independiente corners (+1.5)	93.5%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Independiente corners (-1.5)	73.9%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Independiente corners (-2.5)	64.0%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Independiente corners (-3.5)	53.4%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Deportivo Riestra corners (+3.5)	46.6%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Deportivo Riestra corners (+2.5)	36.0%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Deportivo Riestra corners (+1.5)	26.1%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Deportivo Riestra corners (-1.5)	6.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
Deportivo Riestra corners (-2.5)	3.5%	4.3%	—	—	23.47
Deportivo Riestra corners (-3.5)	1.8%	4.3%	—	—	23.53

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	37.9%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	32.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	75.6%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	72.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	67.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	62.1%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	58.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	51.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	48.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	41.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	37.9%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	32.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	27.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	24.4%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-0	18.8%	13.8%	14.8%	0.93×	7.22
1-0	17.7%	13.8%	14.1%	0.98×	7.23
1-1	13.4%	11.5%	13.5%	0.85×	8.71
0-1	12.2%	11.5%	10.3%	1.12×	8.71
2-0	9.2%	7.4%	9.6%	0.77×	13.51
2-1	6.4%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.51
0-2	4.5%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.29
0-3	1.0%	1.7%	2.1%	0.84×	58.31
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.6%	3.01×	58.32
1-2	4.5%	1.7%	7.1%	0.24×	58.29
1-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.9%	0.88×	58.31
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.01×	58.32
2-2	2.2%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.31
2-3	0.5%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.32
2-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	15.04×	58.32
3-0	3.1%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.30
3-1	2.1%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.31
3-2	0.7%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.31
3-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.01×	58.32
3-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.1%	15.04×	58.32
4-0	0.8%	1.7%	1.1%	1.50×	58.31
4-1	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.15×	58.32
4-2	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.01×	58.32
4-3	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	7.52×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	7.52×	58.32
Any other score	0.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente (2nd half DNB)	59.7%	59.7%	—	—	1.67
Deportivo Riestra (2nd half DNB)	40.3%	40.3%	—	—	2.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente leading at HT (DNB)	62.6%	66.5%	—	—	1.51
Deportivo Riestra leading at HT (DNB)	37.4%	33.5%	—	—	2.98

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente or draw (1X)	75.8%	75.5%	72.4%	1.04×	1.32
Independiente or Deportivo Riestra (12)	65.4%	69.6%	69.3%	1.00×	1.44
Deportivo Riestra or draw (X2)	58.8%	57.1%	58.2%	0.98×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente or draw at HT	83.3%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Deportivo Riestra or draw at HT	72.1%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
Independiente or Deportivo Riestra at HT	44.5%	43.7%	—	—	2.29

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente or draw (1UP)	75.8%	83.5%	—	—	1.20
Deportivo Riestra or draw (1UP)	58.8%	63.1%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente or draw in 2nd half	78.6%	75.7%	—	—	1.32
Deportivo Riestra or draw in 2nd half	68.4%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Independiente or Deportivo Riestra in 2nd half	53.0%	54.9%	—	—	1.82

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	75.8%	76.4%	—	—	1.31
Neither half drawn	24.2%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente (DNB)	62.9%	62.7%	60.3%	1.04×	1.60
Deportivo Riestra (DNB)	37.1%	37.3%	39.7%	0.94×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente to score first	47.8%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Deportivo Riestra to score first	33.3%	27.8%	—	—	3.59
No goal scored	18.8%	18.4%	—	—	5.43

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	67.6%	58.4%	59.4%	0.98×	1.71
Both teams to score	32.4%	41.6%	40.6%	1.02×	2.40

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	62.4%	50.4%	52.8%	0.96×	1.98
Both score & over 2.5	19.0%	21.5%	27.3%	0.79×	4.65
Both score & under 2.5	13.4%	12.4%	13.5%	0.92×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	5.3%	8.3%	6.7%	1.23×	12.08

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	95.9%	91.6%	94.1%	0.97×	1.09
Both teams to score 2+	4.1%	8.4%	5.9%	1.42×	11.91

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	84.9%	75.0%	—	—	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	15.1%	25.1%	—	—	3.99

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	77.6%	75.7%	—	—	1.32
Both score 2nd half only	13.8%	10.8%	—	—	9.30
Both score 1st half only	7.4%	6.8%	—	—	14.74
Both score in both halves	1.3%	4.8%	—	—	20.93

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	91.4%	91.6%	—	—	1.09
Both teams to score by HT	8.6%	8.4%	—	—	11.88

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	67.8%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
A goal in each half	32.2%	34.5%	—	—	2.90

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1 goals	48.7%	47.2%	39.0%	1.21×	2.12
2-3 goals	41.9%	42.2%	47.3%	0.89×	2.37
4-6 goals	9.1%	7.6%	13.5%	0.57×	13.07
7+ goals	0.2%	1.8%	0.5%	4.02×	54.55

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Riestra to score exactly 0	49.8%	43.0%	42.4%	1.01×	2.32
Deportivo Riestra to score exactly 1	34.7%	33.8%	35.9%	0.94×	2.96
Deportivo Riestra to score exactly 2	12.1%	12.9%	15.3%	0.84×	7.76
Deportivo Riestra to score 3+	3.4%	4.6%	6.6%	0.69×	21.85

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente to score exactly 0	36.7%	35.5%	31.8%	1.12×	2.81
Independiente to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.5%	36.5%	0.97×	2.81
Independiente to score exactly 2	18.4%	18.8%	21.8%	0.86×	5.32
Independiente to score 3+	8.1%	10.4%	10.1%	1.02×	9.66

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	55.5%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
Independiente leading at HT	27.9%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
Deportivo Riestra leading at HT	16.7%	15.9%	—	—	6.29

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente -1: 2	58.8%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Independiente -1: X	24.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Independiente -1: 1	16.2%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Riestra (0:1)	58.8%	55.9%	58.2%	0.96×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	24.9%	24.2%	24.3%	1.00×	4.13
Independiente (0:1)	16.2%	17.8%	17.7%	1.01×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Riestra (0:2)	83.8%	83.0%	82.3%	1.01×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.5%	11.0%	12.8%	0.86×	9.10
Independiente (0:2)	4.7%	3.8%	5.0%	0.75×	26.62

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Riestra (0:3)	95.3%	96.6%	95.0%	1.02×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.6%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	41.98
Independiente (0:3)	1.1%	2.4%	1.7%	1.39×	42.09

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Riestra (0:4)	98.9%	98.1%	98.3%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.9%	1.2%	1.3%	0.97×	81.87
Independiente (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	0.6%	2.14×	81.95

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente (1:0)	75.8%	78.5%	72.4%	1.08×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	17.2%	17.1%	18.6%	0.92×	5.85
Deportivo Riestra (1:0)	7.1%	6.9%	9.1%	0.76×	14.50

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente (2:0)	92.9%	94.0%	90.9%	1.03×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	5.6%	6.4%	6.3%	1.02×	15.68
Deportivo Riestra (2:0)	1.5%	2.3%	3.0%	0.77×	43.83

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	40.5%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
Halves equal	34.4%	33.5%	—	—	2.98
1st half highest scoring	25.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente to concede	50.2%	53.1%	57.6%	0.92×	1.88
Independiente clean sheet	49.8%	46.9%	42.4%	1.11×	2.13

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente clean sheet in 1st half	75.6%	77.0%	—	—	1.30
Independiente to concede in 1st half	24.4%	23.0%	—	—	4.36

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente clean sheet in 2nd half	65.8%	66.6%	—	—	1.50
Independiente to concede in 2nd half	34.2%	33.5%	—	—	2.99

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente over 2.5 corners	93.3%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Independiente over 3.5 corners	85.9%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Independiente over 4.5 corners	75.8%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Independiente over 5.5 corners	64.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Independiente over 6.5 corners	51.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Independiente under 6.5 corners	48.3%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Independiente under 5.5 corners	36.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Independiente under 4.5 corners	24.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Independiente under 3.5 corners	14.1%	13.8%	—	—	7.25
Independiente under 2.5 corners	6.7%	10.8%	—	—	9.29

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente under 3.5 goals	98.1%	96.4%	97.1%	0.99×	1.04
Independiente under 2.5 goals	91.9%	92.2%	89.9%	1.03×	1.09
Independiente under 1.5 goals	73.5%	74.2%	68.2%	1.09×	1.35
Independiente over 0.5 goals	63.3%	63.6%	68.2%	0.93×	1.57
Independiente under 0.5 goals	36.7%	36.4%	31.8%	1.14×	2.75
Independiente over 1.5 goals	26.5%	25.8%	31.8%	0.81×	3.88
Independiente over 2.5 goals	8.1%	7.8%	10.1%	0.77×	12.83
Independiente over 3.5 goals	1.9%	3.6%	2.9%	1.27×	27.60

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente under 1.5 in 1st half	93.0%	94.8%	—	—	1.06
Independiente under 0.5 in 1st half	65.0%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Independiente over 0.5 in 1st half	35.0%	35.5%	—	—	2.82
Independiente over 1.5 in 1st half	7.0%	5.2%	—	—	19.22

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente scores equally in both	46.3%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Independiente scores more in 2nd half	31.6%	33.2%	—	—	3.02
Independiente scores more in 1st half	22.1%	21.0%	—	—	4.77

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	58.8%	56.4%	52.6%	1.07×	1.77
Deportivo Riestra (home no bet)	41.2%	43.6%	47.4%	0.92×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente even goals	56.7%	55.3%	55.6%	0.99×	1.81
Independiente odd goals	43.3%	44.7%	44.4%	1.01×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	49.3%	49.3%	—	—	2.03
HT 1-0	21.1%	24.4%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	13.6%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
HT 1-1	6.0%	6.9%	—	—	14.57
HT 2-0	4.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.12
HT 0-2	1.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.30
HT 2-1	1.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.34
Any other HT score	1.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.34
HT 1-2	0.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.37
HT 2-2	0.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.41

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	26.6%	27.3%	—	—	3.66
Independiente at HT / Independiente at FT	22.7%	21.6%	—	—	4.63
Draw at HT / Independiente at FT	17.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Deportivo Riestra at HT / Deportivo Riestra at FT	11.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Deportivo Riestra at FT	11.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Independiente at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.88
Deportivo Riestra at HT / Draw at FT	3.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.90
Deportivo Riestra at HT / Independiente at FT	1.2%	3.4%	—	—	28.99
Independiente at HT / Deportivo Riestra at FT	0.9%	3.4%	—	—	29.00

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente to score last	47.9%	46.4%	—	—	2.16
Deportivo Riestra to score last	33.3%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
No goal scored	18.8%	14.4%	—	—	6.93

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	81.2%	87.4%	—	—	1.14
Independiente to lead by 1 at any time	51.6%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Deportivo Riestra to lead by 1 at any time	35.8%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	28.6%	25.3%	—	—	3.95
Independiente to lead by 2 at any time	19.3%	14.9%	—	—	6.73
Deportivo Riestra to lead by 2 at any time	9.3%	6.7%	—	—	14.95
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	7.3%	6.6%	—	—	15.05
Independiente to lead by 3 at any time	5.4%	6.6%	—	—	15.13
Deportivo Riestra to lead by 3 at any time	1.8%	1.6%	—	—	63.47

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente most corners	82.3%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Deportivo Riestra most corners	11.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Corners level	6.6%	8.3%	—	—	12.00

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	80.4%	83.4%	84.3%	0.99×	1.20
1-4 goals	78.2%	78.7%	79.9%	0.98×	1.27
1-3 goals	71.8%	72.3%	71.5%	1.01×	1.38
1-2 goals	56.9%	59.1%	51.4%	1.15×	1.69
2-6 goals	51.1%	53.1%	60.7%	0.88×	1.88
2-5 goals	50.5%	53.1%	60.1%	0.88×	1.88
2-4 goals	48.3%	48.4%	55.8%	0.87×	2.06
2-3 goals	41.9%	43.6%	47.3%	0.92×	2.29
3-6 goals	24.1%	24.5%	33.5%	0.73×	4.09
3-5 goals	23.5%	24.5%	33.0%	0.74×	4.09
3-4 goals	21.3%	24.4%	28.6%	0.85×	4.09
4-6 goals	9.1%	8.9%	13.5%	0.66×	11.25
4-5 goals	8.5%	8.9%	12.9%	0.69×	11.25
5-6 goals	2.8%	2.6%	5.0%	0.51×	39.14
7+ goals	0.2%	2.5%	0.5%	5.58×	39.26

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente never behind	45.3%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Deportivo Riestra never behind	29.6%	30.0%	—	—	3.33

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.2%	50.9%	48.9%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.8%	49.1%	51.1%	0.96×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	62.3%	59.8%	—	—	1.67
Odd goals in 1st half	37.7%	40.2%	—	—	2.49

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	57.3%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
Odd goals in 2nd half	42.7%	39.8%	—	—	2.52

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	99.2%	95.4%	99.0%	0.96×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	97.0%	95.4%	94.6%	1.01×	1.05
Under 3.5 goals	90.7%	92.3%	86.2%	1.07×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	81.2%	82.3%	85.2%	0.97×	1.22
Under 2.5 goals	75.7%	77.3%	66.1%	1.17×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	51.3%	52.5%	61.0%	0.86×	1.91
Under 1.5 goals	48.7%	47.5%	39.0%	1.22×	2.11
Over 2.5 goals	24.3%	22.7%	33.9%	0.67×	4.40
Under 0.5 goals	18.8%	17.7%	14.8%	1.19×	5.65
Over 3.5 goals	9.3%	7.7%	13.8%	0.56×	12.93
Over 4.5 goals	3.0%	4.6%	5.4%	0.85×	21.83
Over 5.5 goals	0.8%	4.6%	1.0%	4.46×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.8%	97.2%	99.5%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	99.2%	97.2%	98.9%	0.98×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	96.8%	97.2%	94.1%	1.03×	1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	89.0%	86.7%	82.7%	1.05×	1.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	66.8%	67.5%	53.5%	1.26×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	33.2%	32.5%	46.5%	0.70×	3.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	11.0%	13.3%	17.3%	0.77×	7.55
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	3.2%	2.8%	5.9%	0.48×	35.60
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	0.8%	2.8%	1.1%	2.61×	35.67
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.2%	2.8%	0.5%	6.11×	35.69

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	96.5%	97.1%	—	—	1.03
Under 1.5 in 1st half	84.0%	85.8%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	50.7%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Under 0.5 in 1st half	49.3%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Over 1.5 in 1st half	16.0%	14.2%	—	—	7.03
Over 2.5 in 1st half	3.5%	2.9%	—	—	34.63

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	92.2%	90.4%	—	—	1.11
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	73.7%	77.8%	—	—	1.29
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	62.6%	61.5%	—	—	1.63
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	37.4%	38.5%	—	—	2.60
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	26.3%	22.2%	—	—	4.50
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	7.8%	9.6%	—	—	10.43

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Riestra not to score in both halves	91.7%	90.4%	—	—	1.11
Independiente not to score in both halves	84.8%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Independiente to score in both halves	15.2%	15.6%	—	—	6.41
Deportivo Riestra to score in both halves	8.3%	9.6%	—	—	10.41

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	32.4%	33.3%	40.6%	0.82×	3.01
Only Independiente scores	30.9%	33.3%	27.7%	1.20×	3.01
Neither team scores	18.8%	16.0%	14.8%	1.08×	6.23
Only Deportivo Riestra scores	17.9%	16.0%	17.1%	0.94×	6.23

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 1 goals	29.9%	24.9%	24.3%	1.02×	4.02
Exactly 2 goals	27.0%	24.9%	27.3%	0.91×	4.02
Exactly 0 goals	18.8%	17.5%	14.8%	1.18×	5.73
Exactly 3 goals	15.0%	12.1%	20.2%	0.60×	8.25
Exactly 4 goals	6.4%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.14
Exactly 5 goals	2.2%	4.5%	4.4%	1.01×	22.37
6 or more goals	0.8%	4.5%	1.0%	4.35×	22.39

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	49.3%	49.3%	—	—	2.03
1 goal in 1st half	34.7%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	12.5%	10.9%	—	—	9.21
3+ goals in 1st half	3.5%	2.9%	—	—	34.63

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 2nd half	37.4%	39.9%	—	—	2.51
1 goal in 2nd half	36.4%	39.7%	—	—	2.52
2+ goals in 2nd half	26.3%	29.1%	—	—	3.44

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Riestra not to win both halves	96.4%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Independiente not to win both halves	91.1%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Independiente to win both halves	8.9%	5.9%	—	—	17.01
Deportivo Riestra to win both halves	3.6%	2.8%	—	—	35.75

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Riestra to win neither half	65.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Independiente to win either half	50.6%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Independiente to win neither half	49.4%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Deportivo Riestra to win either half	34.4%	32.2%	—	—	3.11

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Riestra not to win to nil	82.1%	83.1%	82.9%	1.00×	1.20
Independiente not to win to nil	69.1%	69.7%	72.3%	0.96×	1.44
Independiente to win to nil	30.9%	30.3%	27.7%	1.09×	3.30
Deportivo Riestra to win to nil	17.9%	16.9%	17.1%	0.99×	5.91

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	34.6%	27.8%	30.7%	0.90×	3.60
Independiente by 1	24.9%	24.1%	24.3%	0.99×	4.15
Deportivo Riestra by 1	17.2%	17.0%	18.6%	0.92×	5.87
Independiente by 2	11.5%	11.8%	12.8%	0.92×	8.51
Deportivo Riestra by 2	5.6%	7.2%	6.3%	1.15×	13.92
Independiente by 3+	4.7%	2.7%	5.0%	0.54×	36.82
Deportivo Riestra by 3+	1.5%	2.7%	3.0%	0.91×	36.93