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Instituto (Córdoba) v Newell's Old Boys — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

dc-xg No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Instituto (Córdoba) win
47.2%
Draw
29.9%
Newell's Old Boys win
22.9%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.28–0.80 1-0 16% 34% 40%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) to win 47.2% 47.4% 41.8% 1.14× 2.11
Draw 29.9% 27.9% 30.7% 0.91× 3.59
Newell's Old Boys to win 22.9% 24.5% 27.7% 0.89× 4.08
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) & not both score 31.9% 29.7% 27.7% 1.07× 3.37
Draw & both teams score 16.9% 17.9% 15.9% 1.13× 5.58
Instituto (Córdoba) & both teams score 15.3% 17.9% 14.2% 1.26× 5.58
Newell's Old Boys & not both score 14.9% 13.3% 17.2% 0.77× 7.54
Draw & not both score 13.0% 13.3% 14.9% 0.89× 7.54
Newell's Old Boys & both teams score 8.0% 8.4% 10.6% 0.79× 11.93
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) & under 3.5 38.3% 34.8% 34.8% 1.00× 2.87
Instituto (Córdoba) & over 1.5 31.7% 30.8% 27.7% 1.11× 3.24
Draw & under 2.5 26.2% 26.0% 28.1% 0.93× 3.84
Draw & under 3.5 26.2% 26.0% 28.1% 0.93× 3.84
Instituto (Córdoba) & under 2.5 25.7% 26.0% 23.6% 1.10× 3.84
Instituto (Córdoba) & over 2.5 21.4% 21.6% 18.3% 1.18× 4.63
Newell's Old Boys & under 3.5 19.8% 18.0% 23.6% 0.76× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 16.9% 18.0% 15.9% 1.13× 5.56
Instituto (Córdoba) & under 1.5 15.5% 18.0% 14.2% 1.27× 5.56
Newell's Old Boys & under 2.5 13.6% 12.9% 14.6% 0.88× 7.76
Draw & under 1.5 13.0% 12.9% 14.9% 0.87× 7.76
Newell's Old Boys & over 1.5 13.3% 12.9% 17.5% 0.74× 7.76
Instituto (Córdoba) & over 3.5 8.9% 7.9% 7.1% 1.11× 12.65
Newell's Old Boys & under 1.5 9.6% 7.9% 10.3% 0.77× 12.65
Newell's Old Boys & over 2.5 9.3% 7.9% 13.2% 0.60× 12.65
Draw & over 2.5 3.7% 4.8% 2.6% 1.82× 20.86
Draw & over 3.5 3.7% 4.8% 2.6% 1.82× 20.86
Newell's Old Boys & over 3.5 3.1% 4.8% 4.2% 1.13× 20.86
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) (1UP) 59.0% 58.2% 1.72
Newell's Old Boys (1UP) 36.9% 34.3% 2.91
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) (2UP) 47.2% 49.9% 2.01
Newell's Old Boys (2UP) 22.9% 23.7% 4.22
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 41.6% 41.1% 2.44
Instituto (Córdoba) to win 2nd half 37.0% 35.9% 2.78
Newell's Old Boys to win 2nd half 21.4% 23.0% 4.34
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Newell's Old Boys under 1.5 in 2nd half 91.6% 92.0% 1.09
Newell's Old Boys under 0.5 in 2nd half 61.8% 59.0% 1.70
Newell's Old Boys over 0.5 in 2nd half 38.2% 41.0% 2.44
Newell's Old Boys over 1.5 in 2nd half 8.4% 8.0% 12.49
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) under 1.5 in 2nd half 83.4% 82.5% 1.21
Instituto (Córdoba) over 0.5 in 2nd half 51.7% 53.2% 1.88
Instituto (Córdoba) under 0.5 in 2nd half 48.3% 46.8% 2.14
Instituto (Córdoba) over 1.5 in 2nd half 16.6% 17.5% 5.73
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Newell's Old Boys (+2.5) 92.2% 92.1% 95.0% 0.97× 1.09
Newell's Old Boys (+1.5) 78.0% 78.4% 82.5% 0.95× 1.28
Instituto (Córdoba) (+0.5) 77.1% 78.4% 72.3% 1.08× 1.28
Newell's Old Boys (+0.5) 52.8% 52.4% 58.2% 0.90× 1.91
Instituto (Córdoba) (-0.5) 47.2% 47.6% 41.8% 1.14× 2.10
Newell's Old Boys (-0.5) 22.9% 21.6% 27.7% 0.78× 4.63
Instituto (Córdoba) (-1.5) 22.0% 21.6% 17.5% 1.23× 4.63
Instituto (Córdoba) (-2.5) 7.8% 7.9% 5.0% 1.58× 12.59
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Newell's Old Boys to concede 72.1% 76.6% 68.1% 1.13× 1.31
Newell's Old Boys clean sheet 27.9% 23.4% 31.9% 0.73× 4.27
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Newell's Old Boys clean sheet in 1st half 57.7% 58.5% 1.71
Newell's Old Boys to concede in 1st half 42.3% 41.5% 2.41
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Newell's Old Boys to concede in 2nd half 51.7% 52.7% 1.90
Newell's Old Boys clean sheet in 2nd half 48.3% 47.3% 2.12
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Newell's Old Boys under 6.5 corners 93.6% 90.0% 1.11
Newell's Old Boys under 5.5 corners 87.4% 85.2% 1.17
Newell's Old Boys under 4.5 corners 77.1% 76.0% 1.32
Newell's Old Boys under 3.5 corners 61.6% 61.8% 1.62
Newell's Old Boys over 2.5 corners 58.2% 57.1% 1.75
Newell's Old Boys under 2.5 corners 41.8% 42.9% 2.33
Newell's Old Boys over 3.5 corners 38.4% 38.2% 2.62
Newell's Old Boys over 4.5 corners 22.9% 24.0% 4.16
Newell's Old Boys over 5.5 corners 12.6% 14.8% 6.76
Newell's Old Boys over 6.5 corners 6.4% 10.0% 9.97
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Newell's Old Boys under 3.5 goals 99.1% 97.5% 98.9% 0.99× 1.03
Newell's Old Boys under 2.5 goals 95.2% 97.5% 93.4% 1.04× 1.03
Newell's Old Boys under 1.5 goals 80.8% 81.3% 78.1% 1.04× 1.23
Newell's Old Boys over 0.5 goals 55.1% 59.4% 57.6% 1.03× 1.68
Newell's Old Boys under 0.5 goals 44.9% 40.6% 42.4% 0.96× 2.46
Newell's Old Boys over 1.5 goals 19.2% 18.7% 21.9% 0.85× 5.36
Newell's Old Boys over 2.5 goals 4.8% 2.5% 6.6% 0.38× 39.93
Newell's Old Boys over 3.5 goals 0.9% 2.5% 1.1% 2.18× 40.13
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Newell's Old Boys under 1.5 in 1st half 95.8% 95.7% 1.05
Newell's Old Boys under 0.5 in 1st half 72.6% 68.6% 1.46
Newell's Old Boys over 0.5 in 1st half 27.4% 31.4% 3.18
Newell's Old Boys over 1.5 in 1st half 4.2% 4.3% 23.15
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Newell's Old Boys scores equally in both 52.1% 50.1% 1.99
Newell's Old Boys scores more in 2nd half 29.7% 26.2% 3.81
Newell's Old Boys scores more in 1st half 18.2% 18.0% 5.57
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) (away no bet) 61.2% 61.9% 57.7% 1.07× 1.62
Draw (away no bet) 38.8% 38.1% 42.3% 0.90× 2.63
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Newell's Old Boys even goals 60.1% 59.0% 58.5% 1.01× 1.70
Newell's Old Boys odd goals 39.9% 41.0% 41.5% 0.99× 2.44
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 92.6% 92.7% 1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals 7.4% 7.3% 13.67
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 51.5% 50.0% 2.00
Not both halves under 1.5 48.5% 50.0% 2.00
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 42.9% 38.3% 2.61
Instituto (Córdoba) to score 2+ in a row 31.2% 29.0% 3.44
Newell's Old Boys to score 2+ in a row 14.4% 12.2% 8.20
Either team to score 3+ in a row 12.9% 12.2% 8.22
Instituto (Córdoba) to score 3+ in a row 10.2% 12.1% 8.27
Newell's Old Boys to score 3+ in a row 2.8% 2.6% 38.88
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) corners (+3.5) 97.8% 95.8% 1.04
Instituto (Córdoba) corners (+2.5) 95.9% 95.8% 1.04
Instituto (Córdoba) corners (+1.5) 92.7% 89.6% 1.12
Instituto (Córdoba) corners (-1.5) 72.5% 70.7% 1.41
Instituto (Córdoba) corners (-2.5) 62.6% 61.8% 1.62
Instituto (Córdoba) corners (-3.5) 52.1% 52.5% 1.91
Newell's Old Boys corners (+3.5) 47.9% 47.5% 2.10
Newell's Old Boys corners (+2.5) 37.4% 38.2% 2.62
Newell's Old Boys corners (+1.5) 27.5% 29.3% 3.42
Newell's Old Boys corners (-1.5) 7.3% 10.4% 9.58
Newell's Old Boys corners (-2.5) 4.1% 4.2% 23.64
Newell's Old Boys corners (-3.5) 2.2% 4.2% 23.70
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 35.6% 34.0% 2.95
12+ corners 34.6% 33.2% 3.01
9-11 corners 29.8% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 74.3% 72.6% 1.38
Under 12.5 corners 73.6% 72.6% 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 65.4% 67.7% 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 64.4% 63.3% 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 56.0% 57.9% 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 54.1% 53.2% 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 45.9% 46.8% 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 44.0% 42.1% 2.37
Under 8.5 corners 35.6% 36.7% 2.73
Over 11.5 corners 34.6% 32.3% 3.10
Over 12.5 corners 26.4% 27.4% 3.65
Under 7.5 corners 25.7% 27.4% 3.65
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 15.5% 13.8% 14.2% 0.97× 7.26
1-1 13.3% 11.4% 13.4% 0.85× 8.74
0-0 13.0% 11.4% 14.9% 0.77× 8.74
2-0 10.2% 11.4% 9.5% 1.20× 8.74
0-1 9.6% 7.4% 10.3% 0.72× 13.50
2-1 8.2% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.50
1-2 5.1% 7.4% 7.1% 1.04× 13.50
0-2 4.0% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.30
0-3 1.1% 1.7% 2.1% 0.83× 58.31
0-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.6% 3.00× 58.32
1-3 1.4% 1.7% 1.9% 0.88× 58.31
1-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 5.00× 58.32
2-2 3.3% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.30
2-3 0.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.15× 58.31
2-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.1% 14.99× 58.32
3-0 4.3% 1.7% 2.7% 0.62× 58.29
3-1 3.5% 1.7% 3.0% 0.58× 58.30
3-2 1.4% 1.7% 1.6% 1.07× 58.31
3-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 5.00× 58.32
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 14.99× 58.32
4-0 1.4% 1.7% 1.1% 1.50× 58.31
4-1 1.1% 1.7% 0.8% 2.14× 58.31
4-2 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 5.00× 58.32
4-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 7.49× 58.32
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 7.49× 58.32
Any other score 1.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.87× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) (2nd half DNB) 63.4% 61.4% 1.63
Newell's Old Boys (2nd half DNB) 36.6% 38.6% 2.59
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) leading at HT (DNB) 65.9% 73.2% 1.37
Newell's Old Boys leading at HT (DNB) 34.1% 26.8% 3.73
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) or draw (1X) 77.1% 75.5% 72.3% 1.04× 1.33
Instituto (Córdoba) or Newell's Old Boys (12) 70.1% 72.1% 69.3% 1.04× 1.39
Newell's Old Boys or draw (X2) 52.8% 52.6% 58.2% 0.90× 1.90
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) or draw at HT 82.9% 84.5% 1.18
Newell's Old Boys or draw at HT 66.9% 66.3% 1.51
Instituto (Córdoba) or Newell's Old Boys at HT 50.2% 47.5% 2.11
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) or draw (1UP) 77.1% 83.9% 1.19
Newell's Old Boys or draw (1UP) 52.8% 59.2% 1.69
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) or draw in 2nd half 78.6% 77.0% 1.30
Newell's Old Boys or draw in 2nd half 63.0% 64.1% 1.56
Instituto (Córdoba) or Newell's Old Boys in 2nd half 58.4% 58.9% 1.70
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 70.2% 68.7% 1.46
Neither half drawn 29.8% 31.3% 3.19
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) (DNB) 67.3% 67.2% 60.1% 1.12× 1.49
Newell's Old Boys (DNB) 32.7% 32.8% 39.9% 0.82× 3.05
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) to score first 53.5% 53.9% 1.86
Newell's Old Boys to score first 33.5% 27.3% 3.67
No goal scored 13.0% 10.2% 9.81
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 59.8% 54.9% 59.5% 0.92× 1.82
Both teams to score 40.2% 45.1% 40.5% 1.11× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 52.3% 47.1% 52.9% 0.89× 2.12
Both score & over 2.5 26.9% 33.5% 27.2% 1.23× 2.98
Both score & under 2.5 13.3% 12.3% 13.4% 0.92× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 7.5% 8.3% 6.8% 1.23× 12.00
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 93.0% 89.1% 94.1% 0.95× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 7.0% 10.9% 6.0% 1.84× 9.16
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 80.1% 72.4% 1.38
Both teams to score in 2nd half 19.9% 27.6% 3.62
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 70.7% 67.5% 1.48
Both score 2nd half only 17.6% 15.7% 6.38
Both score 1st half only 9.4% 6.8% 14.66
Both score in both halves 2.3% 4.9% 20.29
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 88.3% 86.4% 1.16
Both teams to score by HT 11.7% 13.6% 7.36
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 59.0% 57.4% 1.74
A goal in each half 41.0% 42.6% 2.35
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.2% 47.3% 47.3% 1.00× 2.12
0-1 goals 38.1% 35.1% 39.1% 0.90× 2.85
4-6 goals 15.2% 20.3% 13.4% 1.51× 4.93
7+ goals 0.6% 1.8% 0.5% 3.98× 54.84
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Newell's Old Boys to score exactly 0 44.9% 37.2% 42.4% 0.88× 2.69
Newell's Old Boys to score exactly 1 36.0% 36.0% 35.8% 1.00× 2.78
Newell's Old Boys to score exactly 2 14.4% 12.9% 15.3% 0.84× 7.78
Newell's Old Boys to score 3+ 4.8% 4.6% 6.6% 0.69× 21.92
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) to score exactly 1 35.6% 35.6% 36.5% 0.98× 2.81
Instituto (Córdoba) to score exactly 0 27.9% 26.5% 31.9% 0.83× 3.77
Instituto (Córdoba) to score exactly 2 22.7% 23.2% 21.7% 1.07× 4.31
Instituto (Córdoba) to score 3+ 13.8% 14.4% 10.1% 1.43× 6.94
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 49.8% 52.5% 1.91
Instituto (Córdoba) leading at HT 33.1% 33.7% 2.97
Newell's Old Boys leading at HT 17.1% 15.5% 6.43
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) -1: 2 52.8% 52.1% 1.92
Instituto (Córdoba) -1: X 25.2% 26.5% 3.77
Instituto (Córdoba) -1: 1 22.0% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Newell's Old Boys (0:1) 52.8% 51.2% 58.2% 0.88× 1.95
Draw (0:1) 25.2% 27.0% 24.4% 1.11× 3.70
Instituto (Córdoba) (0:1) 22.0% 24.3% 17.5% 1.39× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Newell's Old Boys (0:2) 78.0% 79.4% 82.5% 0.96× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 14.2% 10.9% 12.6% 0.87× 9.16
Instituto (Córdoba) (0:2) 7.8% 7.7% 5.0% 1.53× 12.97
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Newell's Old Boys (0:3) 92.2% 92.6% 95.0% 0.98× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.6% 5.8% 3.4% 1.68× 17.31
Instituto (Córdoba) (0:3) 2.2% 2.4% 1.7% 1.38× 42.13
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Newell's Old Boys (0:4) 97.8% 98.1% 98.3% 1.00× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.7% 1.2% 1.3% 0.95× 83.55
Instituto (Córdoba) (0:4) 0.5% 1.2% 0.6% 2.09× 83.69
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) (1:0) 77.1% 78.5% 72.3% 1.08× 1.28
Draw (1:0) 15.7% 17.0% 18.7% 0.91× 5.89
Newell's Old Boys (1:0) 7.3% 6.9% 9.2% 0.76× 14.41
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) (2:0) 92.7% 93.9% 90.8% 1.03× 1.07
Draw (2:0) 5.6% 6.4% 6.3% 1.02× 15.52
Newell's Old Boys (2:0) 1.7% 2.3% 3.0% 0.77× 43.75
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 43.5% 48.6% 2.06
Halves equal 30.2% 28.8% 3.47
1st half highest scoring 26.2% 26.5% 3.78
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) to concede 55.1% 60.8% 57.6% 1.06× 1.64
Instituto (Córdoba) clean sheet 44.9% 39.2% 42.4% 0.92× 2.55
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) clean sheet in 1st half 72.6% 68.1% 1.47
Instituto (Córdoba) to concede in 1st half 27.4% 31.9% 3.13
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) clean sheet in 2nd half 61.8% 58.8% 1.70
Instituto (Córdoba) to concede in 2nd half 38.2% 41.2% 2.43
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) over 2.5 corners 93.5% 89.3% 1.12
Instituto (Córdoba) over 3.5 corners 86.3% 86.3% 1.16
Instituto (Córdoba) over 4.5 corners 76.3% 76.6% 1.31
Instituto (Córdoba) over 5.5 corners 64.7% 62.3% 1.61
Instituto (Córdoba) over 6.5 corners 52.4% 52.6% 1.90
Instituto (Córdoba) under 6.5 corners 47.6% 47.4% 2.11
Instituto (Córdoba) under 5.5 corners 35.3% 37.7% 2.65
Instituto (Córdoba) under 4.5 corners 23.7% 23.4% 4.27
Instituto (Córdoba) under 3.5 corners 13.7% 13.7% 7.31
Instituto (Córdoba) under 2.5 corners 6.5% 10.7% 9.34
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) under 3.5 goals 95.9% 96.3% 97.1% 0.99× 1.04
Instituto (Córdoba) under 2.5 goals 86.2% 87.2% 89.9% 0.97× 1.15
Instituto (Córdoba) over 0.5 goals 72.1% 74.2% 68.1% 1.09× 1.35
Instituto (Córdoba) under 1.5 goals 63.5% 63.5% 68.3% 0.93× 1.57
Instituto (Córdoba) over 1.5 goals 36.5% 36.5% 31.7% 1.15× 2.74
Instituto (Córdoba) under 0.5 goals 27.9% 25.8% 31.9% 0.81× 3.88
Instituto (Córdoba) over 2.5 goals 13.8% 12.8% 10.1% 1.27× 7.81
Instituto (Córdoba) over 3.5 goals 4.1% 3.7% 2.9% 1.28× 27.27
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) under 1.5 in 1st half 89.5% 89.9% 1.11
Instituto (Córdoba) under 0.5 in 1st half 57.7% 58.1% 1.72
Instituto (Córdoba) over 0.5 in 1st half 42.3% 41.9% 2.39
Instituto (Córdoba) over 1.5 in 1st half 10.5% 10.1% 9.89
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) scores equally in both 40.2% 42.3% 2.36
Instituto (Córdoba) scores more in 2nd half 35.4% 37.6% 2.66
Instituto (Córdoba) scores more in 1st half 24.4% 21.6% 4.63
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 56.6% 56.6% 52.5% 1.08× 1.77
Newell's Old Boys (home no bet) 43.4% 43.4% 47.5% 0.91× 2.31
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) even goals 53.9% 50.6% 55.7% 0.91× 1.98
Instituto (Córdoba) odd goals 46.1% 49.4% 44.3% 1.12× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 42.0% 41.1% 2.43
HT 1-0 22.9% 24.2% 4.13
HT 0-1 13.4% 10.9% 9.15
HT 1-1 7.5% 7.1% 14.02
HT 2-0 6.3% 7.1% 14.04
Any other HT score 2.3% 2.3% 43.54
HT 0-2 2.2% 2.3% 43.55
HT 2-1 2.0% 2.3% 43.56
HT 1-2 1.2% 2.3% 43.62
HT 2-2 0.3% 2.3% 43.68
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) at HT / Instituto (Córdoba) at FT 27.3% 27.0% 3.71
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 21.2% 21.7% 4.61
Draw at HT / Instituto (Córdoba) at FT 18.2% 16.8% 5.97
Newell's Old Boys at HT / Newell's Old Boys at FT 11.3% 12.7% 7.90
Draw at HT / Newell's Old Boys at FT 10.4% 12.6% 7.91
Instituto (Córdoba) at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.5% 28.74
Newell's Old Boys at HT / Draw at FT 4.1% 3.5% 28.76
Newell's Old Boys at HT / Instituto (Córdoba) at FT 1.7% 3.5% 28.85
Instituto (Córdoba) at HT / Newell's Old Boys at FT 1.2% 3.5% 28.87
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) to score last 53.5% 52.0% 1.92
Newell's Old Boys to score last 33.5% 33.0% 3.03
No goal scored 13.0% 9.6% 10.43
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 87.0% 90.5% 1.11
Instituto (Córdoba) to lead by 1 at any time 59.0% 55.1% 1.81
Newell's Old Boys to lead by 1 at any time 36.9% 34.8% 2.87
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 36.5% 34.8% 2.87
Instituto (Córdoba) to lead by 2 at any time 26.2% 25.4% 3.93
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 11.3% 10.4% 9.58
Newell's Old Boys to lead by 2 at any time 10.3% 10.4% 9.60
Instituto (Córdoba) to lead by 3 at any time 9.0% 6.7% 15.02
Newell's Old Boys to lead by 3 at any time 2.2% 1.6% 62.17
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) most corners 81.1% 81.5% 1.23
Newell's Old Boys most corners 12.2% 10.4% 9.60
Corners level 6.8% 8.4% 11.92
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.1% 87.4% 84.2% 1.04× 1.15
1-4 goals 81.0% 83.4% 79.9% 1.04× 1.20
1-3 goals 71.3% 72.4% 71.5% 1.01× 1.38
2-6 goals 61.4% 63.4% 60.5% 1.05× 1.58
2-5 goals 60.0% 59.1% 60.0% 0.99× 1.69
2-4 goals 55.9% 59.1% 55.6% 1.06× 1.69
1-2 goals 52.6% 53.1% 51.4% 1.03× 1.88
2-3 goals 46.2% 48.6% 47.3% 1.03× 2.06
3-6 goals 33.9% 35.3% 33.5% 1.05× 2.83
3-5 goals 32.5% 35.3% 33.0% 1.07× 2.83
3-4 goals 28.4% 30.3% 28.6% 1.06× 3.30
4-6 goals 15.2% 18.7% 13.4% 1.40× 5.34
4-5 goals 13.8% 14.9% 12.8% 1.16× 6.73
5-6 goals 5.4% 8.8% 5.0% 1.75× 11.33
7+ goals 0.6% 2.6% 0.5% 5.57× 39.22
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) never behind 50.1% 61.7% 1.62
Newell's Old Boys never behind 28.0% 30.1% 3.32
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.3% 50.8% 49.1% 1.04× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.7% 49.2% 50.9% 0.97× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 58.9% 57.6% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 41.1% 42.4% 2.36
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 54.8% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 45.2% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 98.0% 95.4% 99.0% 0.96× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 94.0% 92.2% 94.6% 0.97× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 87.0% 87.6% 85.1% 1.03× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 84.3% 82.3% 86.3% 0.95× 1.22
Under 2.5 goals 65.6% 66.2% 66.1% 1.00× 1.51
Over 1.5 goals 61.9% 61.7% 60.9% 1.01× 1.62
Under 1.5 goals 38.1% 38.3% 39.1% 0.98× 2.61
Over 2.5 goals 34.4% 33.8% 33.9% 1.00× 2.96
Over 3.5 goals 15.7% 17.7% 13.7% 1.29× 5.66
Under 0.5 goals 13.0% 12.4% 14.9% 0.83× 8.07
Over 4.5 goals 6.0% 7.8% 5.4% 1.44× 12.88
Over 5.5 goals 2.0% 4.6% 1.0% 4.42× 21.95
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.4% 97.2% 99.5% 0.98× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 98.0% 97.2% 98.9% 0.98× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 93.4% 92.4% 94.1% 0.98× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 80.7% 81.0% 82.8% 0.98× 1.24
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 52.5% 51.9% 53.6% 0.97× 1.93
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 47.5% 48.1% 46.4% 1.04× 2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 19.3% 19.0% 17.2% 1.11× 5.26
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 6.6% 7.6% 5.9% 1.29× 13.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 2.0% 2.8% 1.1% 2.59× 35.87
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.6% 2.8% 0.5% 6.05× 35.91
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 94.2% 92.8% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 78.3% 78.9% 1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half 58.0% 62.7% 1.59
Under 0.5 in 1st half 42.0% 37.3% 2.68
Over 1.5 in 1st half 21.7% 21.1% 4.73
Over 2.5 in 1st half 5.8% 7.2% 13.96
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 87.8% 85.4% 1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 70.0% 67.7% 1.48
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 65.8% 67.4% 1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 34.2% 32.6% 3.07
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 30.0% 32.3% 3.09
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 12.2% 14.6% 6.85
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Newell's Old Boys not to score in both halves 89.5% 86.0% 1.16
Instituto (Córdoba) not to score in both halves 78.2% 78.3% 1.28
Instituto (Córdoba) to score in both halves 21.8% 21.7% 4.60
Newell's Old Boys to score in both halves 10.5% 14.0% 7.13
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 40.2% 46.6% 40.5% 1.15× 2.15
Only Instituto (Córdoba) scores 31.9% 33.3% 27.7% 1.20× 3.01
Only Newell's Old Boys scores 14.9% 11.0% 17.2% 0.64× 9.09
Neither team scores 13.0% 11.0% 14.9% 0.74× 9.10
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 27.5% 24.9% 27.1% 0.92× 4.01
Exactly 1 goals 25.1% 24.9% 24.4% 1.02× 4.02
Exactly 3 goals 18.7% 17.4% 20.3% 0.86× 5.73
Exactly 0 goals 13.0% 12.1% 14.9% 0.81× 8.27
Exactly 4 goals 9.7% 7.6% 8.5% 0.90× 13.07
Exactly 5 goals 4.0% 4.5% 4.5% 1.00× 22.41
6 or more goals 2.0% 4.5% 1.0% 4.33× 22.45
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 42.0% 41.8% 2.39
1 goal in 1st half 36.3% 37.1% 2.70
2 goals in 1st half 15.9% 15.2% 6.58
3+ goals in 1st half 5.8% 7.2% 13.96
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 2nd half 35.8% 39.8% 2.51
2+ goals in 2nd half 34.2% 33.4% 3.00
No goals in 2nd half 30.0% 33.3% 3.01
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Newell's Old Boys not to win both halves 96.3% 97.2% 1.03
Instituto (Córdoba) not to win both halves 87.7% 87.9% 1.14
Instituto (Córdoba) to win both halves 12.3% 12.1% 8.28
Newell's Old Boys to win both halves 3.7% 2.8% 35.69
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Newell's Old Boys to win neither half 65.2% 67.9% 1.47
Instituto (Córdoba) to win either half 57.8% 59.5% 1.68
Instituto (Córdoba) to win neither half 42.2% 40.5% 2.47
Newell's Old Boys to win either half 34.8% 32.1% 3.11
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Newell's Old Boys not to win to nil 85.1% 88.1% 82.8% 1.06× 1.14
Instituto (Córdoba) not to win to nil 68.1% 69.7% 72.3% 0.96× 1.43
Instituto (Córdoba) to win to nil 31.9% 30.3% 27.7% 1.09× 3.30
Newell's Old Boys to win to nil 14.9% 11.9% 17.2% 0.69× 8.43
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 29.9% 27.9% 30.7% 0.91× 3.59
Instituto (Córdoba) by 1 25.2% 27.8% 24.4% 1.14× 3.59
Newell's Old Boys by 1 15.7% 16.9% 18.7% 0.91× 5.91
Instituto (Córdoba) by 2 14.2% 11.8% 12.6% 0.94× 8.49
Instituto (Córdoba) by 3+ 7.8% 7.2% 5.0% 1.44× 13.81
Newell's Old Boys by 2 5.6% 7.2% 6.3% 1.15× 13.82
Newell's Old Boys by 3+ 1.7% 2.7% 3.0% 0.92× 36.70
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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