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Internacional v Corinthians — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 7 October 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627

Brasileirão results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Internacional win
39.2%
model 36.7%
Draw
30.4%
model 31.8%
Corinthians win
30.4%
model 31.5%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (574 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 14.6%
  2. 0-0 12.6%
  3. 1-0 11.7%
  4. 0-1 10.5%
  5. 2-1 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.537.1% Under 2.562.9%
BTTS yes45.1% BTTS no54.9%
Internacional 1+68.0% Internacional 2+31.6%
Corinthians 1+64.5% Corinthians 2+27.7%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.04. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
77/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Internacional under 1.5 goals
Home goals O/U · usually 55%
68.9% fair odds 1.45
moderate signal · 921 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Corinthians (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 77%
83.8% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 457 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Internacional.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Internacional have an estimated 39.2% win probability, against 30.4% for the draw and 30.4% for Corinthians. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.14 for Internacional and 1.04 for Corinthians.

Why Internacional

Nothing in the data singles out Internacional.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 30.4%. A combined 2.18 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.14 to 1.04. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Corinthians can win

Corinthians carry the stronger rating, 1548 Elo against 1457.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Internacional, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Corinthians, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Internacional: 40% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 14.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Corinthians: 53% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Internacional are the model's most likely outcome at 39.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.6%. Confidence 77/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.14–1.04 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.06–0.93 0-0 15% 32% 41%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional to win 36.7% 37.2% 49.0% 0.76× 2.69
Draw 31.8% 28.9% 27.2% 1.06× 3.46
Corinthians to win 31.5% 28.9% 24.0% 1.21× 3.46
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional & not both score 22.9% 22.7% 28.1% 0.81× 4.41
Corinthians & not both score 19.4% 17.8% 13.8% 1.29× 5.61
Draw & both teams score 19.2% 17.8% 20.7% 0.86× 5.61
Internacional & both teams score 13.9% 12.1% 21.0% 0.58× 8.24
Draw & not both score 12.6% 12.1% 6.7% 1.82× 8.25
Corinthians & both teams score 12.1% 12.1% 10.3% 1.17× 8.25
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional & under 3.5 29.5% 25.6% 36.9% 0.69× 3.91
Draw & under 2.5 27.2% 25.5% 20.2% 1.26× 3.92
Draw & under 3.5 27.2% 25.5% 20.2% 1.26× 3.92
Corinthians & under 3.5 25.7% 25.5% 18.6% 1.37× 3.92
Internacional & over 1.5 25.0% 25.5% 36.7% 0.69× 3.92
Corinthians & over 1.5 21.0% 21.5% 17.2% 1.25× 4.66
Draw & over 1.5 19.2% 17.6% 20.7% 0.85× 5.68
Internacional & under 2.5 19.1% 17.6% 21.6% 0.81× 5.68
Internacional & over 2.5 17.7% 17.6% 27.5% 0.64× 5.68
Corinthians & under 2.5 16.6% 17.6% 11.0% 1.60× 5.68
Corinthians & over 2.5 14.9% 12.7% 13.2% 0.96× 7.87
Draw & under 1.5 12.6% 12.7% 6.7% 1.90× 7.88
Internacional & under 1.5 11.7% 12.7% 12.4% 1.02× 7.88
Corinthians & under 1.5 10.5% 12.7% 7.0% 1.81× 7.88
Internacional & over 3.5 7.2% 7.5% 12.2% 0.61× 13.34
Corinthians & over 3.5 5.8% 7.5% 5.6% 1.35× 13.35
Draw & over 2.5 4.5% 4.5% 7.2% 0.63× 22.30
Draw & over 3.5 4.5% 4.5% 7.2% 0.63× 22.30
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional (1UP) 51.1% 52.4% 1.91
Corinthians (1UP) 46.4% 44.5% 2.25
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional (2UP) 36.7% 40.5% 2.47
Corinthians (2UP) 31.5% 30.3% 3.31
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 41.4% 39.4% 2.54
Internacional to win 2nd half 30.2% 33.7% 2.97
Corinthians to win 2nd half 28.4% 27.5% 3.63
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Corinthians under 1.5 in 2nd half 87.1% 85.4% 1.17
Corinthians under 0.5 in 2nd half 53.7% 51.6% 1.94
Corinthians over 0.5 in 2nd half 46.3% 48.4% 2.07
Corinthians over 1.5 in 2nd half 12.9% 14.6% 6.83
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional under 1.5 in 2nd half 86.2% 87.7% 1.14
Internacional under 0.5 in 2nd half 52.2% 54.6% 1.83
Internacional over 0.5 in 2nd half 47.8% 45.4% 2.20
Internacional over 1.5 in 2nd half 13.8% 12.3% 8.12
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Corinthians (+2.5) 95.0% 92.4% 90.8% 1.02× 1.08
Corinthians (+1.5) 84.3% 82.6% 76.8% 1.08× 1.21
Internacional (+0.5) 68.5% 69.2% 76.0% 0.91× 1.45
Corinthians (+0.5) 63.3% 64.0% 51.0% 1.25× 1.56
Internacional (-0.5) 36.7% 36.0% 49.0% 0.74× 2.78
Corinthians (-0.5) 31.5% 30.8% 24.0% 1.28× 3.25
Internacional (-1.5) 15.7% 17.4% 23.2% 0.75× 5.74
Internacional (-2.5) 5.0% 7.6% 9.2% 0.82× 13.18
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Corinthians to concede 68.0% 71.4% 79.7% 0.90× 1.40
Corinthians clean sheet 32.0% 28.6% 20.4% 1.41× 3.50
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Corinthians clean sheet in 1st half 61.3% 60.5% 1.65
Corinthians to concede in 1st half 38.7% 39.5% 2.53
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Corinthians clean sheet in 2nd half 52.2% 54.6% 1.83
Corinthians to concede in 2nd half 47.8% 45.4% 2.20
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Corinthians under 6.5 corners 85.3% 85.2% 1.17
Corinthians under 5.5 corners 76.6% 76.0% 1.32
Corinthians over 2.5 corners 67.7% 67.6% 1.48
Corinthians under 4.5 corners 64.6% 61.8% 1.62
Corinthians over 3.5 corners 50.6% 53.0% 1.89
Corinthians under 3.5 corners 49.4% 47.0% 2.13
Corinthians over 4.5 corners 35.4% 38.2% 2.62
Corinthians under 2.5 corners 32.3% 32.4% 3.08
Corinthians over 5.5 corners 23.4% 24.0% 4.16
Corinthians over 6.5 corners 14.7% 14.8% 6.76
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Corinthians under 3.5 goals 97.9% 97.3% 97.9% 0.99× 1.03
Corinthians under 2.5 goals 91.3% 92.7% 90.9% 1.02× 1.08
Corinthians under 1.5 goals 72.3% 72.0% 72.0% 1.00× 1.39
Corinthians over 0.5 goals 64.5% 63.9% 65.3% 0.98× 1.56
Corinthians under 0.5 goals 35.5% 36.1% 34.7% 1.04× 2.77
Corinthians over 1.5 goals 27.7% 28.0% 28.0% 1.00× 3.58
Corinthians over 2.5 goals 8.7% 7.3% 9.1% 0.80× 13.77
Corinthians over 3.5 goals 2.1% 2.7% 2.1% 1.32× 36.68
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Corinthians under 1.5 in 1st half 93.5% 93.3% 1.07
Corinthians under 0.5 in 1st half 66.1% 67.0% 1.49
Corinthians over 0.5 in 1st half 33.9% 33.0% 3.03
Corinthians over 1.5 in 1st half 6.5% 6.7% 15.03
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Corinthians scores equally in both 45.2% 46.6% 2.14
Corinthians scores more in 2nd half 34.3% 32.4% 3.08
Corinthians scores more in 1st half 20.5% 21.5% 4.65
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional (away no bet) 53.6% 51.5% 64.3% 0.80× 1.94
Draw (away no bet) 46.4% 48.5% 35.7% 1.36× 2.06
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Corinthians even goals 56.3% 58.3% 55.0% 1.06× 1.71
Corinthians odd goals 43.7% 41.7% 45.0% 0.93× 2.40
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 91.7% 92.1% 1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals 8.3% 7.9% 12.66
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 51.5% 55.4% 1.80
Both halves under 1.5 goals 48.5% 44.6% 2.24
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 44.0% 45.1% 2.22
Internacional to score 2+ in a row 25.6% 25.1% 3.98
Corinthians to score 2+ in a row 21.9% 21.8% 4.59
Either team to score 3+ in a row 12.7% 12.2% 8.19
Internacional to score 3+ in a row 7.2% 7.3% 13.64
Corinthians to score 3+ in a row 5.6% 7.3% 13.72
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional corners (+3.5) 92.2% 89.6% 1.12
Internacional corners (+2.5) 87.9% 84.5% 1.18
Internacional corners (+1.5) 82.0% 79.8% 1.25
Corinthians corners (+3.5) 63.7% 61.9% 1.62
Internacional corners (-1.5) 55.6% 57.1% 1.75
Corinthians corners (+2.5) 54.3% 52.5% 1.91
Internacional corners (-2.5) 45.7% 47.5% 2.10
Corinthians corners (+1.5) 44.4% 42.9% 2.33
Internacional corners (-3.5) 36.3% 38.1% 2.62
Corinthians corners (-1.5) 18.0% 20.2% 4.95
Corinthians corners (-2.5) 12.1% 15.5% 6.45
Corinthians corners (-3.5) 7.8% 10.4% 9.58
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 39.0% 34.0% 2.94
12+ corners 33.7% 33.2% 3.01
9-11 corners 27.3% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 73.7% 72.6% 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 70.5% 72.6% 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 66.3% 67.7% 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 61.0% 63.3% 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 57.9% 57.9% 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 51.3% 53.2% 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 48.7% 46.8% 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 42.1% 42.1% 2.38
Under 8.5 corners 39.0% 36.7% 2.72
Over 11.5 corners 33.7% 32.3% 3.10
Under 7.5 corners 29.5% 27.4% 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 26.3% 27.4% 3.65
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 14.6% 11.6% 13.7% 0.85× 8.60
0-0 12.6% 11.6% 6.7% 1.74× 8.61
1-0 11.7% 11.6% 12.4% 0.94× 8.62
0-1 10.5% 11.6% 7.0% 1.66× 8.63
2-1 7.6% 7.3% 10.8% 0.67× 13.76
2-0 7.4% 7.3% 9.4% 0.77× 13.76
1-2 6.9% 7.3% 6.2% 1.17× 13.77
0-2 6.1% 7.3% 4.1% 1.76× 13.77
2-2 4.0% 1.8% 5.6% 0.32× 55.41
3-0 2.8% 1.8% 4.8% 0.38× 55.44
3-1 2.9% 1.8% 4.0% 0.45× 55.44
0-3 2.1% 1.8% 1.7% 1.03× 55.46
1-3 2.4% 1.8% 2.1% 0.87× 55.45
2-3 1.4% 1.8% 1.7% 1.03× 55.47
3-2 1.5% 1.8% 2.9% 0.63× 55.47
0-4 0.5% 1.8% 1.1% 1.62× 55.49
1-4 0.6% 1.8% 0.3% 5.67× 55.49
2-4 0.4% 1.8% 0.3% 5.67× 55.50
3-3 0.5% 1.8% 1.7% 1.03× 55.50
3-4 0.1% 1.8% 0.2% 11.33× 55.50
4-0 0.8% 1.8% 1.1% 1.62× 55.49
4-1 0.8% 1.8% 2.1% 0.87× 55.49
4-2 0.4% 1.8% 1.0% 1.89× 55.50
4-3 0.1% 1.8% 0.3% 5.67× 55.50
4-4 0.0% 1.8% 0.2% 11.33× 55.51
Any other score 1.0% 1.8% 2.5% 0.71× 55.48
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional (2nd half DNB) 51.5% 51.5% 1.94
Corinthians (2nd half DNB) 48.5% 48.5% 2.06
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional leading at HT (DNB) 55.2% 56.7% 1.77
Corinthians leading at HT (DNB) 44.8% 43.3% 2.31
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional or draw (1X) 68.5% 71.1% 76.0% 0.94× 1.41
Internacional or Corinthians (12) 68.2% 71.1% 72.8% 0.98× 1.41
Corinthians or draw (X2) 63.3% 62.8% 51.0% 1.23× 1.59
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional or draw at HT 77.4% 78.9% 1.27
Corinthians or draw at HT 72.1% 71.3% 1.40
Internacional or Corinthians at HT 50.5% 52.0% 1.92
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional or draw (1UP) 68.5% 75.1% 1.33
Corinthians or draw (1UP) 63.3% 67.7% 1.48
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional or draw in 2nd half 71.6% 72.5% 1.38
Corinthians or draw in 2nd half 69.8% 66.3% 1.51
Internacional or Corinthians in 2nd half 58.6% 60.6% 1.65
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 69.2% 66.2% 1.51
Neither half drawn 30.8% 33.8% 2.96
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional (DNB) 53.8% 53.1% 67.1% 0.79× 1.88
Corinthians (DNB) 46.2% 46.9% 32.9% 1.42× 2.13
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional to score first 45.8% 46.0% 2.17
Corinthians to score first 41.6% 41.3% 2.42
No goal scored 12.6% 8.9% 11.30
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 54.9% 53.2% 48.3% 1.10× 1.88
Both teams to score 45.1% 46.8% 51.7% 0.91× 2.14
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 48.3% 45.6% 39.0% 1.17× 2.19
Both score & over 2.5 30.5% 34.2% 38.2% 0.90× 2.93
Both score & under 2.5 14.6% 11.7% 13.7% 0.86× 8.52
Not both score & over 2.5 6.6% 8.6% 9.5% 0.90× 11.59
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 91.2% 88.9% 87.3% 1.02× 1.13
Both teams to score 2+ 8.8% 11.1% 12.7% 0.87× 9.01
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 77.5% 74.1% 1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half 22.5% 25.9% 3.85
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 67.0% 66.5% 1.50
Both score 2nd half only 19.6% 18.3% 5.47
Both score 1st half only 10.5% 11.5% 8.67
Both score in both halves 2.9% 4.9% 20.61
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 86.6% 85.5% 1.17
Both teams to score by HT 13.4% 14.5% 6.89
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 56.6% 55.7% 1.80
A goal in each half 43.4% 44.3% 2.26
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.6% 45.9% 49.8% 0.92× 2.18
0-1 goals 34.8% 32.0% 25.8% 1.24× 3.13
4-6 goals 16.9% 20.6% 24.2% 0.85× 4.86
7+ goals 0.7% 1.9% 0.6% 2.99× 52.55
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Corinthians to score exactly 1 36.8% 34.6% 37.5% 0.92× 2.89
Corinthians to score exactly 0 35.5% 34.6% 34.7% 1.00× 2.89
Corinthians to score exactly 2 19.0% 18.5% 19.1% 0.97× 5.40
Corinthians to score 3+ 8.7% 7.5% 9.1% 0.83× 13.31
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional to score exactly 1 36.5% 36.1% 34.3% 1.05× 2.77
Internacional to score exactly 0 32.0% 30.4% 20.4% 1.50× 3.28
Internacional to score exactly 2 20.8% 22.9% 27.2% 0.84× 4.36
Internacional to score 3+ 10.8% 13.4% 18.4% 0.73× 7.46
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 49.5% 48.0% 2.08
Internacional leading at HT 27.9% 28.7% 3.48
Corinthians leading at HT 22.6% 21.1% 4.74
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional -1: 2 63.3% 60.9% 1.64
Internacional -1: X 21.0% 24.0% 4.17
Internacional -1: 1 15.7% 18.7% 5.34
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Corinthians (0:1) 63.3% 60.0% 51.0% 1.18× 1.67
Draw (0:1) 21.0% 24.5% 25.9% 0.94× 4.09
Internacional (0:1) 15.7% 18.2% 23.2% 0.78× 5.50
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Corinthians (0:2) 84.3% 83.8% 76.8% 1.09× 1.19
Draw (0:2) 10.7% 11.5% 14.1% 0.82× 8.66
Internacional (0:2) 5.0% 7.1% 9.2% 0.77× 14.12
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Corinthians (0:3) 95.0% 92.7% 90.8% 1.02× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 3.7% 2.3% 6.7% 0.35× 43.02
Internacional (0:3) 1.3% 2.3% 2.7% 0.85× 43.56
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Corinthians (0:4) 98.7% 98.1% 97.3% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.0% 1.2% 1.7% 0.70× 81.62
Internacional (0:4) 0.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.10× 82.00
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional (1:0) 68.5% 70.6% 76.0% 0.93× 1.42
Draw (1:0) 19.0% 16.5% 14.6% 1.13× 6.08
Corinthians (1:0) 12.5% 11.7% 9.5% 1.22× 8.58
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional (2:0) 87.5% 89.3% 90.5% 0.99× 1.12
Draw (2:0) 8.9% 6.6% 6.2% 1.06× 15.26
Corinthians (2:0) 3.7% 2.7% 3.5% 0.78× 36.73
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 43.8% 49.4% 2.02
1st half highest scoring 25.6% 26.1% 3.83
Halves equal 30.5% 25.4% 3.93
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional to concede 64.5% 66.1% 65.3% 1.01× 1.51
Internacional clean sheet 35.5% 33.9% 34.7% 0.98× 2.95
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional clean sheet in 1st half 66.1% 67.2% 1.49
Internacional to concede in 1st half 33.9% 32.8% 3.05
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional clean sheet in 2nd half 53.7% 51.3% 1.95
Internacional to concede in 2nd half 46.3% 48.7% 2.06
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional over 2.5 corners 86.9% 86.3% 1.16
Internacional over 3.5 corners 76.5% 76.6% 1.31
Internacional over 4.5 corners 64.5% 62.3% 1.61
Internacional under 6.5 corners 59.2% 57.6% 1.74
Internacional over 5.5 corners 52.2% 52.6% 1.90
Internacional under 5.5 corners 47.8% 47.4% 2.11
Internacional over 6.5 corners 40.8% 42.4% 2.36
Internacional under 4.5 corners 35.5% 37.7% 2.65
Internacional under 3.5 corners 23.5% 23.4% 4.27
Internacional under 2.5 corners 13.1% 13.7% 7.31
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional under 3.5 goals 97.1% 97.8% 94.3% 1.04× 1.02
Internacional under 2.5 goals 89.2% 87.8% 81.6% 1.08× 1.14
Internacional under 1.5 goals 68.5% 68.9% 54.5% 1.26× 1.45
Internacional over 0.5 goals 68.0% 68.9% 79.7% 0.87× 1.45
Internacional under 0.5 goals 32.0% 31.1% 20.4% 1.53× 3.22
Internacional over 1.5 goals 31.5% 31.1% 45.5% 0.68× 3.22
Internacional over 2.5 goals 10.8% 12.2% 18.4% 0.66× 8.22
Internacional over 3.5 goals 2.9% 2.2% 5.7% 0.39× 44.52
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional under 1.5 in 1st half 91.3% 93.1% 1.08
Internacional under 0.5 in 1st half 61.3% 60.3% 1.66
Internacional over 0.5 in 1st half 38.7% 39.7% 2.52
Internacional over 1.5 in 1st half 8.7% 6.9% 14.42
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional scores equally in both 43.0% 40.4% 2.48
Internacional scores more in 2nd half 33.6% 31.6% 3.16
Internacional scores more in 1st half 23.3% 22.4% 4.46
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Corinthians (home no bet) 49.8% 50.9% 46.9% 1.09× 1.96
Draw (home no bet) 50.2% 49.1% 53.1% 0.92× 2.04
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional even goals 55.1% 57.9% 51.7% 1.12× 1.73
Internacional odd goals 44.9% 42.1% 48.3% 0.87× 2.38
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 40.7% 40.3% 2.48
HT 1-0 19.6% 18.9% 5.28
HT 0-1 16.6% 18.9% 5.30
HT 1-1 8.4% 7.7% 12.98
HT 2-0 4.9% 2.5% 39.72
HT 0-2 3.5% 2.5% 39.80
Any other HT score 2.2% 2.5% 39.87
HT 2-1 2.0% 2.5% 39.89
HT 1-2 1.7% 2.5% 39.90
HT 2-2 0.4% 2.5% 39.98
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 21.8% 21.4% 4.68
Internacional at HT / Internacional at FT 20.8% 21.4% 4.68
Corinthians at HT / Corinthians at FT 16.3% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Internacional at FT 14.3% 12.0% 8.36
Draw at HT / Corinthians at FT 13.4% 11.9% 8.37
Internacional at HT / Draw at FT 5.3% 6.6% 15.27
Corinthians at HT / Draw at FT 4.6% 3.4% 29.31
Internacional at HT / Corinthians at FT 1.8% 3.4% 29.43
Corinthians at HT / Internacional at FT 1.6% 3.4% 29.43
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional to score last 45.8% 49.1% 2.04
Corinthians to score last 41.6% 40.3% 2.48
No goal scored 12.6% 8.9% 11.30
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 87.4% 91.4% 1.09
Internacional to lead by 1 at any time 51.1% 50.9% 1.96
Corinthians to lead by 1 at any time 46.4% 46.1% 2.17
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 36.7% 37.3% 2.68
Internacional to lead by 2 at any time 20.2% 19.8% 5.06
Corinthians to lead by 2 at any time 16.7% 17.6% 5.68
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 10.8% 11.3% 8.83
Internacional to lead by 3 at any time 6.1% 7.0% 14.25
Corinthians to lead by 3 at any time 4.6% 2.7% 37.72
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional most corners 65.4% 64.6% 1.55
Corinthians most corners 25.6% 31.0% 3.22
Corners level 9.0% 8.4% 11.90
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.0% 87.9% 88.9% 0.99× 1.14
1-4 goals 80.4% 81.5% 81.9% 1.00× 1.23
1-3 goals 69.8% 68.3% 68.8% 0.99× 1.46
2-6 goals 64.5% 62.2% 73.8% 0.84× 1.61
2-5 goals 62.8% 62.2% 69.8% 0.89× 1.61
2-4 goals 58.2% 58.9% 62.8% 0.94× 1.70
1-2 goals 50.3% 52.3% 45.9% 1.14× 1.91
2-3 goals 47.6% 48.0% 49.8% 0.96× 2.08
3-6 goals 36.4% 38.9% 47.1% 0.83× 2.57
3-5 goals 34.7% 34.1% 43.1% 0.79× 2.94
3-4 goals 30.1% 34.0% 36.1% 0.94× 2.94
4-6 goals 16.9% 18.1% 24.2% 0.75× 5.52
4-5 goals 15.2% 18.1% 20.2% 0.89× 5.54
5-6 goals 6.3% 8.8% 11.1% 0.79× 11.37
7+ goals 0.7% 2.0% 0.6% 3.12× 50.48
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Internacional never behind 41.0% 50.5% 1.98
Corinthians never behind 36.3% 45.5% 2.20
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 46.9% 50.2% 49.3% 1.02× 1.99
Even number of goals 53.1% 49.8% 50.7% 0.98× 2.01
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 58.6% 55.3% 1.81
Odd goals in 1st half 41.4% 44.7% 2.24
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 54.8% 51.7% 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 45.2% 48.3% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 97.6% 95.7% 95.4% 1.00× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 93.0% 93.0% 88.4% 1.05× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 87.4% 88.8% 93.3% 0.95× 1.13
Under 3.5 goals 82.4% 81.0% 75.4% 1.07× 1.24
Over 1.5 goals 65.2% 65.2% 74.2% 0.88× 1.53
Under 2.5 goals 62.9% 61.7% 52.5% 1.18× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 37.1% 38.3% 47.5% 0.81× 2.61
Under 1.5 goals 34.8% 34.8% 25.8% 1.35× 2.87
Over 3.5 goals 17.6% 19.0% 24.6% 0.77× 5.26
Under 0.5 goals 12.6% 11.2% 6.7% 1.68× 8.89
Over 4.5 goals 7.0% 7.0% 11.6% 0.60× 14.26
Over 5.5 goals 2.4% 4.3% 4.6% 0.93× 23.23
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.3% 97.3% 99.3% 0.98× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 97.5% 97.3% 95.0% 1.02× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 92.2% 92.8% 86.7% 1.07× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 78.2% 76.5% 68.0% 1.12× 1.31
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 51.6% 52.8% 64.9% 0.81× 1.89
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 48.4% 47.2% 35.1% 1.34× 2.12
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 21.8% 23.5% 32.0% 0.73× 4.26
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 7.8% 7.2% 13.3% 0.54× 13.92
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 2.5% 2.7% 5.0% 0.55× 36.38
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.7% 2.7% 0.7% 4.12× 36.67
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 93.6% 92.3% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 76.9% 78.0% 1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half 59.3% 60.3% 1.66
Under 0.5 in 1st half 40.7% 39.7% 2.52
Over 1.5 in 1st half 23.1% 22.0% 4.55
Over 2.5 in 1st half 6.4% 7.7% 12.95
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 86.4% 85.8% 1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 71.5% 76.1% 1.31
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 63.3% 61.0% 1.64
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 36.7% 39.0% 2.57
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 28.5% 23.9% 4.19
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 13.6% 14.2% 7.04
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Corinthians not to score in both halves 84.3% 81.7% 1.22
Internacional not to score in both halves 81.5% 81.6% 1.23
Internacional to score in both halves 18.5% 18.4% 5.44
Corinthians to score in both halves 15.7% 18.3% 5.47
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 45.1% 49.1% 51.7% 0.95× 2.04
Only Internacional scores 22.9% 22.8% 28.1% 0.81× 4.38
Only Corinthians scores 19.4% 16.3% 13.8% 1.18× 6.14
Neither team scores 12.6% 10.9% 6.7% 1.63× 9.21
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 28.1% 24.7% 26.9% 0.92× 4.05
Exactly 1 goals 22.2% 21.6% 19.2% 1.12× 4.63
Exactly 3 goals 19.5% 18.6% 23.1% 0.81× 5.38
Exactly 0 goals 12.6% 12.3% 6.7% 1.85× 8.11
Exactly 4 goals 10.6% 12.3% 13.2% 0.93× 8.12
Exactly 5 goals 4.6% 4.4% 7.2% 0.61× 22.96
6 or more goals 2.4% 4.3% 4.6% 0.93× 23.20
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 40.7% 40.3% 2.48
1 goal in 1st half 36.2% 37.3% 2.68
2 goals in 1st half 16.8% 18.3% 5.47
3+ goals in 1st half 6.4% 7.7% 12.95
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 36.7% 38.3% 2.61
1 goal in 2nd half 34.8% 33.2% 3.01
No goals in 2nd half 28.5% 28.5% 3.51
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Corinthians not to win both halves 93.4% 93.5% 1.07
Internacional not to win both halves 91.4% 93.4% 1.07
Internacional to win both halves 8.6% 6.6% 15.16
Corinthians to win both halves 6.6% 6.5% 15.29
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Corinthians to win neither half 55.6% 59.4% 1.68
Internacional to win neither half 50.6% 53.7% 1.86
Internacional to win either half 49.4% 46.3% 2.16
Corinthians to win either half 44.4% 40.6% 2.46
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Corinthians not to win to nil 80.6% 83.4% 86.2% 0.97× 1.20
Internacional not to win to nil 77.1% 77.2% 71.9% 1.07× 1.30
Internacional to win to nil 22.9% 22.8% 28.1% 0.81× 4.38
Corinthians to win to nil 19.4% 16.6% 13.8% 1.20× 6.02
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 31.8% 27.4% 27.2% 1.01× 3.64
Internacional by 1 21.0% 23.9% 25.9% 0.92× 4.19
Corinthians by 1 19.0% 17.1% 14.6% 1.17× 5.86
Internacional by 2 10.7% 11.7% 14.1% 0.83× 8.55
Corinthians by 2 8.9% 7.0% 6.2% 1.14× 14.19
Internacional by 3+ 5.0% 7.0% 9.2% 0.76× 14.28
Corinthians by 3+ 3.7% 2.8% 3.5% 0.81× 35.19
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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