Internazionale v Atalanta — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 14 March 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 8
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
11 – 5
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.02
Goals − xG
-1.03 – -0.01
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Internazionale win
56.0%
Draw
23.7%
Atalanta win
20.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Internazionale have scored 28 from 28.3 expected and conceded 13 from 12.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDDWWWWDWW last 10
scored 28
from 28.3 xG
conceded 13
from 12.7 xG
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDWWLLLWL last 10
scored 14
from 12.8 xG
conceded 15
from 20.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.81–1.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.60–1.14 | 2-1 9% | 72% | 63% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Internazionale 2.03 xGAtalanta 1.01 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Internazionale attacking right
Atalanta attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 5' |
 Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 11' |
Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Giorgio Scalvini |
| 17' |
Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Denzel Dumfries |
| 25' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Nicolò Barella |
| 27' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Francesco Pio Esposito |
| 31' |
Internazionale |
Piotr Zielinski | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Denzel Dumfries |
| 32' |
Internazionale |
Manuel Akanji | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 36' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Petar Sucic |
| 38' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yann Bisseck |
| 40' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Internazionale |
Denzel Dumfries | 0.42 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 48' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 60' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 60' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Henrikh Mkhitaryan |
| 63' |
Internazionale |
Denzel Dumfries | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Henrikh Mkhitaryan |
| 66' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kamaldeen Sulemana |
| 68' |
Atalanta |
Lorenzo Bernasconi | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nikola Krstovic |
| 69' |
Atalanta |
Kamaldeen Sulemana | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ange-Yoan Bonny |
| 81' |
Atalanta |
Kamaldeen Sulemana | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 81' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 88' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 96' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Bernasconi |
Players
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Dumfries DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.81 | 0.09 | 1.04 |
| Marcus Thuram FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.71 | 0.00 | 1.66 |
| Piotr Zielinski MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Carlos Augusto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Yann Sommer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Yann Bisseck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.74 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Nicolò Barella MC | 76 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.75 |
| Francesco Pio Esposito FW | 65 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 0.92 |
| Federico Dimarco DML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| Petar Sucic MC | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.33 |
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan Sub | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.71 | 0.86 |
| Luis Henrique Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Davide Frattesi Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Stefan de Vrij Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Bernasconi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Berat Gjimshiti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Davide Zappacosta DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giorgio Scalvini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Mario Pasalic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marten de Roon MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Sead Kolasinac DC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicola Zalewski AMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lazar Samardzic AMC | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gianluca Scamacca FW | 51 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Nikola Krstovic Sub | 39 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.07 | 0.56 |
| Éderson Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.08 | 0.54 |
| Isak Hien Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Charles De Ketelaere Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |