Internazionale v Cagliari — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 17 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 10
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
12 – 4
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.13
Goals − xG
+0.61 – -0.48
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Internazionale win
74.2%
Draw
15.3%
Cagliari win
10.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Internazionale have scored 28 from 28.3 expected and conceded 13 from 12.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDDWWWWDWW last 10
scored 28
from 28.3 xG
conceded 13
from 12.7 xG
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLWWWDLL last 10
scored 10
from 14.4 xG
conceded 11
from 17.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.45–0.80 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.65–0.73 | 2-0 12% | 66% | 48% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Internazionale 2.39 xGCagliari 0.48 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Internazionale attacking right
Cagliari attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Cagliari |
Gianluca Gaetano | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 2' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marco Palestra |
| 8' |
Cagliari |
Gianluca Gaetano | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 11' |
Cagliari |
Marco Palestra | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gennaro Borrelli |
| 12' |
 Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Francesco Pio Esposito |
| 15' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.68 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 31' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 32' |
Internazionale |
Carlos Augusto | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Henrikh Mkhitaryan |
| 32' |
Internazionale |
Denzel Dumfries | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 39' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 42' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Henrikh Mkhitaryan |
| 46' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 47' |
Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Internazionale |
Denzel Dumfries | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Francesco Pio Esposito |
| 51' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.84 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Federico Dimarco |
| 55' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Francesco Pio Esposito |
| 55' |
Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 59' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Cagliari |
Ndary Adopo | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adam Obert |
| 72' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marco Palestra |
| 73' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Manuel Akanji |
| 77' |
Cagliari |
Paul Mendy | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 85' |
Internazionale |
Denzel Dumfries | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ange-Yoan Bonny |
| 90' |
Cagliari |
Alessandro Deiola | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 90' |
Cagliari |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 91' |
Internazionale |
Piotr Zielinski | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Denzel Dumfries |
| 93' |
Cagliari |
Ndary Adopo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Folorunsho |
Players
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francesco Pio Esposito FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.19 | 0.45 |
| Denzel Dumfries DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.03 | 0.30 |
| Nicolò Barella MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.48 |
| Carlos Augusto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Stefan de Vrij DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.26 |
| Josep Martínez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Hakan Calhanoglu MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.25 |
| Marcus Thuram FW | 78 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.93 | 0.00 | 1.03 |
| Federico Dimarco DML | 78 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.71 | 0.96 | 1.73 |
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.33 |
| Piotr Zielinski Sub | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Luis Henrique Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| Davide Frattesi Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andy Diouf Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ndary Adopo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Sebastiano Esposito FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.25 |
| Marco Palestra DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| Juan Rodríguez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yerry Mina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Zé Pedro DC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Sulemana MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Adam Obert DML | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| Gianluca Gaetano MC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Gennaro Borrelli FW | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Paul Mendy Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Alessandro Deiola Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Michael Folorunsho Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Gabriele Zappa Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrea Belotti Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |