Internazionale v Fiorentina — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 29 October 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 10
On target
8 – 2
Shots in box
19 – 7
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
1.15 – 0.11
Goals − xG
+0.13 – -0.74
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Internazionale win
63.8%
Draw
20.8%
Fiorentina win
15.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Internazionale are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWDWWDDWWW last 10
scored 26
from 22.1 xG
conceded 12
from 13.5 xG
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLDWDLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 15
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.21–1.01 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.08–1.21 | 2-1 10% | 64% | 61% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Internazionale 2.87 xGFiorentina 0.74 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Internazionale attacking right
Fiorentina attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 6' |
Internazionale |
Petar Sucic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 10' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 14' |
Internazionale |
Yann Bisseck | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 18' |
 Fiorentina |
Dodô | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lautaro Martínez |
| 26' |
Internazionale |
Alessandro Bastoni | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 26' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 29' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 32' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dodô |
| 35' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alessandro Bastoni |
| 45' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Simon Sohm |
| 45' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Petar Sucic |
| 45' |
Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Denzel Dumfries |
| 49' |
Internazionale |
Denzel Dumfries | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lautaro Martínez |
| 52' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' |
Internazionale |
Denzel Dumfries | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 55' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 56' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 56' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 56' |
Internazionale |
Yann Bisseck | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lautaro Martínez |
| 60' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Marí |
| 65' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nicolò Barella |
| 67' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 70' |
Internazionale |
Petar Sucic | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lautaro Martínez |
| 73' |
Fiorentina |
Dodô | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Robin Gosens |
| 78' |
Fiorentina |
Jacopo Fazzini | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pietro Comuzzo |
| 78' |
Fiorentina |
Jacopo Fazzini | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 80' |
Fiorentina |
Pietro Comuzzo | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 82' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.26 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 87' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 92' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Piotr Zielinski |
Players
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakan Calhanoglu MC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.84 | 0.18 | 0.95 |
| Petar Sucic MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.06 | 0.69 |
| Alessandro Bastoni DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.08 | 0.94 |
| Lautaro Martínez FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0.29 | 0.72 | 0.87 |
| Federico Dimarco DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.45 |
| Yann Bisseck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.94 |
| Yann Sommer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Nicolò Barella MC | 86 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.18 | 0.93 |
| Francesco Pio Esposito FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Denzel Dumfries DMR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.03 | 0.90 |
| Carlos Augusto Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Piotr Zielinski Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Luis Henrique Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Davide Frattesi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moise Kean FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Pietro Comuzzo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Dodô DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Cher Ndour MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Pablo Marí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| David de Gea GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Mattia Viti DC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Robin Gosens DML | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Rolando Mandragora MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Albert Gudmundsson AMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Simon Sohm MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Jacopo Fazzini Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Nicolo Fagioli Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| Edin Dzeko Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Niccolò Fortini Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |