Internazionale v Fiorentina — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 25 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Internazionale

11:30 UTC

Fiorentina

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 25h before kick-off

Internazionale win

69.7%

model 68.8%

Draw

19.2%

model 17.1%

Fiorentina win

11.1%

model 14.1%

701911

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (176 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 9.4%
2-0 8.8%
3-1 7.9%
1-1 7.5%
3-0 7.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	69.3%	Under 2.5	30.7%
BTTS yes	60.2%	BTTS no	39.8%
Internazionale 1+	91.9%	Internazionale 2+	71.5%
Fiorentina 1+	65.5%	Fiorentina 2+	28.8%

Expected goals 2.51 – 1.06. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

99/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Internazionale to lead by 2 at any time

Lead at any time · usually 24%

51.1% fair odds 1.96

strong signal · 1182 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Internazionale (away no bet)

Away no bet · usually 60%

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 106 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Internazionale carry the stronger rating, 1830 Elo against 1504.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
At home Internazionale average 2.95 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Internazionale have an estimated 69.7% win probability, against 19.2% for the draw and 11.1% for Fiorentina. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.51 for Internazionale and 1.06 for Fiorentina.

Why Internazionale

Internazionale carry the stronger rating, 1830 Elo against 1504. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. At home Internazionale average 2.95 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 19.2%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Fiorentina can win

Away from home Fiorentina average 0.97 xG a match.

Key players

Internazionale's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Lautaro Martínez (0.75), Marcus Thuram (0.57), Federico Dimarco (0.52). Fiorentina's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Moise Kean (0.52), Franco Mastantuono (0.47), Alieu Njie (0.44).

Availability

1 of Internazionale's top three contributors did not start their last match. 2 of Fiorentina's top three contributors did not start their last match. 64% of Fiorentina's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Internazionale: 61% possession, 20.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.90 xG a match from set pieces. Fiorentina: 46% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.21 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Internazionale are the model's most likely outcome at 69.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.4%. Confidence 99/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Internazionale have scored 28 from 28.3 expected and conceded 13 from 12.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WDDWWWWDWW last 10 scored 28 from 28.3 xG conceded 13 from 12.7 xG

Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 2.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

DWDLLLWDLL last 10 scored 11 from 13.6 xG conceded 18 from 17.2 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	691714	2.51–1.06	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	681815	2.43–1.06	2-1 10%	68%	60%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to win	74.5%	73.9%	40.1%	1.84×	1.35
Draw	15.3%	19.4%	26.4%	0.73×	5.17
Fiorentina to win	10.3%	13.4%	33.6%	0.40×	7.45

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale & not both score	38.5%	33.3%	22.6%	1.48×	3.00
Internazionale & both teams score	35.9%	33.3%	17.6%	1.89×	3.01
Draw & both teams score	12.2%	13.3%	18.6%	0.71×	7.54
Fiorentina & both teams score	6.0%	8.3%	13.2%	0.63×	12.02
Fiorentina & not both score	4.3%	4.9%	20.5%	0.24×	20.57
Draw & not both score	3.1%	4.9%	7.9%	0.61×	20.61

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale & over 1.5	66.5%	67.6%	30.0%	2.25×	1.48
Internazionale & over 2.5	56.1%	54.9%	23.4%	2.34×	1.82
Internazionale & over 3.5	37.8%	34.9%	10.7%	3.27×	2.87
Internazionale & under 3.5	36.6%	34.9%	29.5%	1.18×	2.87
Internazionale & under 2.5	18.4%	18.0%	16.8%	1.07×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	12.2%	12.8%	18.6%	0.69×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	10.1%	12.8%	19.7%	0.65×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	10.1%	12.8%	19.7%	0.65×	7.79
Internazionale & under 1.5	8.0%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Fiorentina & over 1.5	7.6%	7.9%	24.6%	0.32×	12.63
Fiorentina & under 3.5	7.3%	7.9%	26.3%	0.30×	12.63
Fiorentina & over 2.5	6.4%	7.9%	18.1%	0.44×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.2%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.2%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.63
Fiorentina & under 2.5	3.9%	4.8%	15.6%	0.31×	20.81
Draw & under 1.5	3.1%	4.8%	7.9%	0.61×	20.82
Fiorentina & under 1.5	2.7%	4.8%	9.1%	0.53×	20.82
Fiorentina & over 3.5	3.0%	4.8%	7.4%	0.65×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (1UP)	83.7%	87.8%	55.3%	1.59×	1.14
Fiorentina (1UP)	28.2%	27.1%	50.4%	0.54×	3.69

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (2UP)	74.5%	81.6%	41.9%	1.95×	1.23
Fiorentina (2UP)	10.3%	13.8%	36.1%	0.38×	7.27

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to win 2nd half	69.2%	63.6%	34.9%	1.82×	1.57
2nd half drawn	22.2%	24.1%	35.1%	0.69×	4.15
Fiorentina to win 2nd half	8.6%	7.2%	30.1%	0.24×	13.85

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 1.5 in 2nd half	93.3%	91.9%	85.0%	1.08×	1.09
Fiorentina under 0.5 in 2nd half	65.6%	69.9%	49.9%	1.40×	1.43
Fiorentina over 0.5 in 2nd half	34.4%	30.1%	50.1%	0.60×	3.32
Fiorentina over 1.5 in 2nd half	6.7%	8.1%	15.0%	0.54×	12.32

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.8%	82.5%	53.8%	1.53×	1.21
Internazionale over 1.5 in 2nd half	50.8%	55.0%	18.6%	2.96×	1.82
Internazionale under 1.5 in 2nd half	49.2%	45.0%	81.4%	0.55×	2.22
Internazionale under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.2%	17.5%	46.2%	0.38×	5.70

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (+0.5)	89.7%	88.5%	66.4%	1.33×	1.13
Internazionale (-0.5)	74.5%	73.7%	40.1%	1.84×	1.36
Fiorentina (+2.5)	68.0%	68.7%	92.3%	0.74×	1.46
Internazionale (-1.5)	53.1%	52.4%	17.5%	2.99×	1.91
Fiorentina (+1.5)	46.9%	47.6%	82.5%	0.58×	2.10
Internazionale (-2.5)	32.0%	31.3%	7.7%	4.08×	3.19
Fiorentina (+0.5)	25.5%	26.3%	59.9%	0.44×	3.80
Fiorentina (-0.5)	10.3%	11.5%	33.6%	0.34×	8.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede	92.7%	91.9%	71.7%	1.28×	1.09
Fiorentina clean sheet	7.3%	8.1%	28.3%	0.29×	12.31

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede in 1st half	59.6%	57.1%	42.1%	1.36×	1.75
Fiorentina clean sheet in 1st half	40.4%	42.9%	57.9%	0.74×	2.33

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede in 2nd half	81.8%	80.6%	53.8%	1.50×	1.24
Fiorentina clean sheet in 2nd half	18.2%	19.4%	46.2%	0.42×	5.15

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 6.5 corners	93.9%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Fiorentina under 5.5 corners	88.3%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Fiorentina under 4.5 corners	79.1%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Fiorentina under 3.5 corners	65.0%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Fiorentina over 2.5 corners	53.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Fiorentina under 2.5 corners	46.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Fiorentina over 3.5 corners	35.0%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Fiorentina over 4.5 corners	20.9%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Fiorentina over 5.5 corners	11.7%	14.8%	—	—	6.78
Fiorentina over 6.5 corners	6.1%	10.1%	—	—	9.92

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 3.5 goals	98.8%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Fiorentina under 2.5 goals	94.1%	92.3%	88.1%	1.05×	1.08
Fiorentina under 1.5 goals	78.1%	76.3%	64.9%	1.17×	1.31
Fiorentina over 0.5 goals	58.4%	59.4%	69.6%	0.85×	1.68
Fiorentina under 0.5 goals	41.6%	40.6%	30.4%	1.34×	2.46
Fiorentina over 1.5 goals	21.9%	23.7%	35.1%	0.68×	4.21
Fiorentina over 2.5 goals	5.9%	7.7%	11.9%	0.64×	13.07
Fiorentina over 3.5 goals	1.2%	2.5%	2.9%	0.87×	39.97

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 1.5 in 1st half	92.3%	94.0%	89.9%	1.05×	1.06
Fiorentina under 0.5 in 1st half	63.4%	63.4%	58.8%	1.08×	1.58
Fiorentina over 0.5 in 1st half	36.6%	36.6%	41.2%	0.89×	2.73
Fiorentina over 1.5 in 1st half	7.7%	6.0%	10.1%	0.59×	16.68

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina scores equally in both	50.0%	48.0%	43.3%	1.11×	2.08
Fiorentina scores more in 1st half	26.2%	26.2%	23.9%	1.10×	3.82
Fiorentina scores more in 2nd half	23.8%	22.1%	32.9%	0.67×	4.52

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (away no bet)	83.0%	82.7%	60.3%	1.37×	1.21
Draw (away no bet)	17.0%	17.3%	39.7%	0.44×	5.79

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina even goals	58.6%	57.0%	55.6%	1.02×	1.76
Fiorentina odd goals	41.4%	43.0%	44.4%	0.97×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	75.2%	81.0%	87.3%	0.93×	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	24.8%	19.0%	12.7%	1.49×	5.27

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	77.4%	72.4%	60.3%	1.20×	1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals	22.6%	27.6%	39.7%	0.69×	3.63

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	73.3%	72.2%	53.4%	1.35×	1.39
Internazionale to score 2+ in a row	66.8%	62.3%	31.8%	1.96×	1.60
Either team to score 3+ in a row	40.0%	38.6%	17.9%	2.16×	2.59
Internazionale to score 3+ in a row	38.1%	36.7%	10.1%	3.63×	2.73
Fiorentina to score 2+ in a row	13.1%	12.1%	27.7%	0.43×	8.29
Fiorentina to score 3+ in a row	2.2%	2.5%	7.9%	0.32×	39.34

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale corners (+3.5)	96.4%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Internazionale corners (+2.5)	93.6%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Internazionale corners (+1.5)	89.0%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Internazionale corners (-1.5)	63.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Fiorentina corners (+3.5)	57.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Internazionale corners (-2.5)	52.9%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Fiorentina corners (+2.5)	47.2%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Internazionale corners (-3.5)	42.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Fiorentina corners (+1.5)	36.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Fiorentina corners (-1.5)	11.0%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Fiorentina corners (-2.5)	6.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Fiorentina corners (-3.5)	3.6%	4.3%	—	—	23.44

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	49.0%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
9-11 corners	27.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	24.0%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	82.4%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	76.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	68.3%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	61.6%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	59.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	51.0%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	49.0%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	40.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	38.4%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	31.7%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	24.0%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	17.6%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	12.5%	11.5%	2.8%	4.15×	8.72
2-0	10.4%	11.5%	6.7%	1.71×	8.72
2-1	9.1%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.51
3-0	9.1%	7.4%	3.6%	2.06×	13.51
1-0	8.0%	7.4%	10.2%	0.73×	13.51
1-1	7.0%	7.4%	11.9%	0.62×	13.51
3-1	8.0%	7.4%	3.1%	2.37×	13.51
4-0	5.9%	7.4%	1.7%	4.40×	13.51
4-1	5.2%	7.4%	1.1%	6.85×	13.51
0-0	3.1%	1.7%	7.9%	0.22×	58.30
0-1	2.7%	1.7%	9.1%	0.19×	58.30
0-2	1.2%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.31
0-3	0.3%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.32
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.32
1-2	3.1%	1.7%	7.4%	0.23×	58.30
1-3	0.9%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.31
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.38×	58.32
2-2	4.0%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	58.30
2-3	1.2%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.31
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32
3-2	3.5%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.30
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.31
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32
4-2	2.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.31
4-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (2nd half DNB)	89.0%	87.3%	53.7%	1.63×	1.15
Fiorentina (2nd half DNB)	11.0%	12.7%	46.3%	0.27×	7.89

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale leading at HT (DNB)	71.6%	73.6%	51.2%	1.44×	1.36
Fiorentina leading at HT (DNB)	28.4%	26.4%	48.8%	0.54×	3.79

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale or draw (1X)	89.7%	86.6%	66.4%	1.30×	1.16
Internazionale or Fiorentina (12)	84.7%	80.6%	73.6%	1.10×	1.24
Fiorentina or draw (X2)	25.5%	26.1%	59.9%	0.44×	3.83

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale or draw at HT	82.2%	84.2%	72.9%	1.16×	1.19
Internazionale or Fiorentina at HT	62.6%	61.4%	55.5%	1.11×	1.63
Fiorentina or draw at HT	55.2%	57.1%	71.5%	0.80×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale or draw (1UP)	89.7%	92.3%	71.7%	1.29×	1.08
Fiorentina or draw (1UP)	28.2%	31.7%	65.4%	0.48×	3.15

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale or draw in 2nd half	91.4%	92.8%	69.9%	1.33×	1.08
Internazionale or Fiorentina in 2nd half	77.8%	75.9%	64.9%	1.17×	1.32
Fiorentina or draw in 2nd half	30.8%	36.4%	65.1%	0.56×	2.75

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	51.2%	50.1%	63.5%	0.79×	2.00
Neither half drawn	48.8%	49.9%	36.5%	1.37×	2.00

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (DNB)	87.9%	87.1%	54.4%	1.60×	1.15
Fiorentina (DNB)	12.1%	12.9%	45.6%	0.28×	7.78

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to score first	72.6%	75.4%	48.6%	1.55×	1.33
Fiorentina to score first	24.4%	23.2%	43.6%	0.53×	4.32
No goal scored	3.1%	4.3%	7.9%	0.54×	23.46

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	54.1%	51.3%	49.2%	1.04×	1.95
Not both teams to score	45.9%	48.7%	50.8%	0.96×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	47.1%	44.3%	37.5%	1.18×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	25.3%	33.3%	40.1%	0.83×	3.00
Not both score & over 2.5	20.6%	27.7%	10.8%	2.57×	3.61
Both score & under 2.5	7.0%	8.3%	11.9%	0.70×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	83.9%	82.6%	86.4%	0.96×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	16.1%	17.4%	13.6%	1.28×	5.75

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.8%	73.6%	74.8%	0.98×	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	28.2%	26.4%	25.2%	1.05×	3.79

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	56.2%	59.8%	62.7%	0.95×	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	22.0%	21.3%	20.4%	1.04×	4.70
Both score 1st half only	15.7%	14.9%	12.2%	1.22×	6.71
Both score in both halves	6.1%	6.8%	4.9%	1.38×	14.76

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	78.2%	81.0%	83.0%	0.98×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	21.8%	19.0%	17.0%	1.11×	5.28

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	65.5%	66.0%	52.8%	1.25×	1.52
A half without a goal	34.5%	34.0%	47.2%	0.72×	2.94

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	40.3%	42.1%	48.4%	0.87×	2.38
4-6 goals	39.8%	35.2%	23.9%	1.47×	2.85
0-1 goals	13.7%	16.9%	27.0%	0.63×	5.91
7+ goals	6.3%	7.6%	1.0%	7.92×	13.15

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to score exactly 0	41.6%	37.3%	30.4%	1.23×	2.68
Fiorentina to score exactly 1	36.5%	35.9%	34.7%	1.04×	2.78
Fiorentina to score exactly 2	16.0%	19.6%	23.3%	0.84×	5.11
Fiorentina to score 3+	5.9%	8.5%	11.9%	0.72×	11.72

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to score 3+	48.4%	37.5%	15.1%	2.48×	2.67
Internazionale to score exactly 2	25.1%	26.5%	24.7%	1.07×	3.77
Internazionale to score exactly 1	19.2%	18.8%	32.1%	0.59×	5.33
Internazionale to score exactly 0	7.3%	10.3%	28.3%	0.36×	9.71

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale leading at HT	44.8%	42.9%	28.5%	1.51×	2.33
Draw at HT	37.4%	38.6%	44.5%	0.87×	2.59
Fiorentina leading at HT	17.8%	15.8%	27.1%	0.58×	6.33

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale -1: 1	53.1%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Internazionale -1: 2	25.5%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Internazionale -1: X	21.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (0:1)	53.1%	51.3%	17.5%	2.93×	1.95
Fiorentina (0:1)	25.5%	27.0%	59.9%	0.45×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	21.4%	24.2%	22.7%	1.07×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (0:2)	46.9%	51.1%	82.5%	0.62×	1.96
Internazionale (0:2)	32.0%	28.7%	7.7%	3.73×	3.49
Draw (0:2)	21.1%	20.3%	10.0%	2.04×	4.93

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (0:3)	68.0%	71.9%	92.3%	0.78×	1.39
Internazionale (0:3)	16.4%	16.1%	3.1%	5.16×	6.21
Draw (0:3)	15.7%	16.1%	4.7%	3.43×	6.22

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (0:4)	83.6%	87.4%	96.9%	0.90×	1.15
Draw (0:4)	9.2%	4.7%	2.3%	2.04×	21.46
Internazionale (0:4)	7.1%	4.6%	1.0%	4.81×	21.64

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (1:0)	89.7%	86.2%	66.4%	1.30×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	7.2%	6.9%	19.3%	0.36×	14.50
Fiorentina (1:0)	3.1%	3.3%	14.4%	0.23×	30.62

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (2:0)	96.9%	96.8%	85.6%	1.13×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	2.4%	2.3%	8.6%	0.26×	43.68
Fiorentina (2:0)	0.7%	2.3%	5.9%	0.39×	43.79

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	55.0%	50.5%	46.2%	1.09×	1.98
1st half highest scoring	24.2%	24.5%	27.0%	0.91×	4.08
Halves equal	20.8%	24.4%	26.9%	0.91×	4.10

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to concede	58.4%	60.7%	69.6%	0.87×	1.65
Internazionale clean sheet	41.6%	39.3%	30.4%	1.29×	2.54

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale clean sheet in 1st half	63.4%	63.3%	58.8%	1.08×	1.58
Internazionale to concede in 1st half	36.6%	36.7%	41.2%	0.89×	2.73

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale clean sheet in 2nd half	65.6%	66.7%	49.9%	1.34×	1.50
Internazionale to concede in 2nd half	34.4%	33.3%	50.1%	0.66×	3.01

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale over 2.5 corners	86.9%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Internazionale over 3.5 corners	76.0%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Internazionale over 4.5 corners	63.5%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Internazionale under 6.5 corners	61.2%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Internazionale over 5.5 corners	50.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Internazionale under 5.5 corners	49.3%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Internazionale over 6.5 corners	38.8%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Internazionale under 4.5 corners	36.5%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Internazionale under 3.5 corners	24.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Internazionale under 2.5 corners	13.2%	13.8%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale over 0.5 goals	92.7%	92.2%	71.7%	1.29×	1.08
Internazionale over 1.5 goals	73.5%	74.3%	39.7%	1.87×	1.35
Internazionale under 3.5 goals	73.4%	74.3%	95.3%	0.78×	1.35
Internazionale under 2.5 goals	51.6%	53.2%	84.9%	0.63×	1.88
Internazionale over 2.5 goals	48.4%	46.8%	15.1%	3.09×	2.14
Internazionale under 1.5 goals	26.5%	25.7%	60.3%	0.43×	3.88
Internazionale over 3.5 goals	26.6%	25.7%	4.7%	5.50×	3.88
Internazionale under 0.5 goals	7.3%	7.8%	28.3%	0.27×	12.88

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale under 1.5 in 1st half	77.1%	76.9%	89.3%	0.86×	1.30
Internazionale over 0.5 in 1st half	59.6%	56.9%	42.1%	1.35×	1.76
Internazionale under 0.5 in 1st half	40.4%	43.1%	57.9%	0.75×	2.32
Internazionale over 1.5 in 1st half	23.0%	23.1%	10.7%	2.16×	4.33

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale scores more in 2nd half	56.2%	57.0%	36.3%	1.57×	1.76
Internazionale scores equally in both	23.9%	21.3%	41.7%	0.51×	4.70
Internazionale scores more in 1st half	19.8%	16.6%	22.2%	0.75×	6.02

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	59.7%	56.5%	44.0%	1.28×	1.77
Fiorentina (home no bet)	40.3%	43.5%	56.0%	0.78×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale even goals	50.3%	50.7%	56.2%	0.90×	1.97
Internazionale odd goals	49.7%	49.3%	43.8%	1.13×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	25.6%	28.2%	33.7%	0.84×	3.55
HT 1-0	23.2%	24.4%	18.5%	1.32×	4.10
HT 0-1	11.7%	11.0%	18.1%	0.61×	9.12
HT 1-1	10.6%	11.0%	10.3%	1.06×	9.13
HT 2-0	10.5%	11.0%	5.8%	1.90×	9.13
Any other HT score	7.4%	6.9%	3.4%	2.06×	14.47
HT 2-1	4.8%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	41.98
HT 0-2	2.7%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	42.12
HT 1-2	2.4%	2.4%	2.6%	0.90×	42.14
HT 2-2	1.1%	2.4%	0.7%	3.29×	42.23

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale at HT / Internazionale at FT	42.2%	41.2%	22.1%	1.87×	2.43
Draw at HT / Internazionale at FT	25.9%	27.3%	15.8%	1.72×	3.66
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	8.3%	6.0%	16.1%	0.37×	16.59
Fiorentina at HT / Fiorentina at FT	6.6%	6.0%	19.1%	0.32×	16.63
Fiorentina at HT / Internazionale at FT	6.4%	6.0%	2.4%	2.50×	16.64
Fiorentina at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.5%	5.9%	0.59×	28.61
Draw at HT / Fiorentina at FT	3.2%	3.5%	12.8%	0.27×	28.67
Internazionale at HT / Draw at FT	2.2%	3.5%	4.7%	0.74×	28.71
Internazionale at HT / Fiorentina at FT	0.5%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.77

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to score last	72.5%	73.0%	48.1%	1.52×	1.37
Fiorentina to score last	24.4%	26.0%	44.1%	0.59×	3.85
No goal scored	3.1%	4.3%	7.9%	0.54×	23.46

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.9%	95.7%	92.1%	1.04×	1.05
Internazionale to lead by 1 at any time	83.7%	87.8%	55.3%	1.59×	1.14
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	65.9%	69.4%	43.7%	1.59×	1.44
Internazionale to lead by 2 at any time	59.6%	55.0%	24.0%	2.29×	1.82
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	37.1%	34.6%	15.1%	2.29×	2.89
Internazionale to lead by 3 at any time	35.7%	34.6%	8.8%	3.94×	2.89
Fiorentina to lead by 1 at any time	28.2%	25.5%	50.4%	0.51×	3.92
Fiorentina to lead by 2 at any time	6.7%	6.7%	20.2%	0.33×	14.94
Fiorentina to lead by 3 at any time	1.4%	1.6%	6.5%	0.24×	63.35

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale most corners	73.9%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Fiorentina most corners	17.5%	19.2%	—	—	5.21
Corners level	8.6%	8.4%	—	—	11.97

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	83.0%	83.4%	89.2%	0.94×	1.20
2-6 goals	80.0%	83.4%	72.1%	1.16×	1.20
2-5 goals	72.3%	72.4%	70.1%	1.03×	1.38
1-4 goals	69.8%	68.8%	80.7%	0.85×	1.45
3-6 goals	61.4%	63.3%	47.3%	1.34×	1.58
2-4 goals	59.1%	59.1%	61.6%	0.96×	1.69
3-5 goals	53.7%	53.2%	45.3%	1.17×	1.88
1-3 goals	50.9%	53.2%	67.5%	0.79×	1.88
3-4 goals	40.5%	43.6%	36.7%	1.19×	2.30
2-3 goals	40.3%	43.6%	48.4%	0.90×	2.30
4-6 goals	39.8%	39.2%	23.9%	1.64×	2.55
4-5 goals	32.1%	35.2%	21.8%	1.61×	2.84
1-2 goals	29.3%	30.2%	44.1%	0.69×	3.31
5-6 goals	20.9%	24.5%	10.7%	2.29×	4.09
7+ goals	6.3%	8.9%	1.0%	9.24×	11.27

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale never behind	68.8%	69.6%	49.6%	1.40×	1.44
Fiorentina never behind	13.2%	12.3%	44.7%	0.27×	8.16

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.0%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.0%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.3%	51.6%	56.5%	0.91×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.7%	48.4%	43.5%	1.11×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.7%	51.9%	50.7%	1.02×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.3%	48.1%	49.3%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.9%	95.4%	92.1%	1.04×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	86.3%	87.6%	73.0%	1.20×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	86.0%	87.6%	97.0%	0.90×	1.14
Under 4.5 goals	72.9%	72.5%	88.5%	0.82×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	67.7%	66.3%	48.1%	1.38×	1.51
Under 3.5 goals	54.0%	52.5%	75.3%	0.70×	1.90
Over 3.5 goals	46.0%	47.5%	24.7%	1.92×	2.11
Under 2.5 goals	32.3%	33.7%	51.9%	0.65×	2.97
Over 4.5 goals	27.1%	27.5%	11.5%	2.39×	3.63
Over 5.5 goals	14.0%	12.4%	3.0%	4.13×	8.06
Under 1.5 goals	13.7%	12.4%	27.0%	0.46×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	3.1%	4.6%	7.9%	0.58×	21.87

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	93.2%	92.4%	99.0%	0.93×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	83.9%	81.1%	96.7%	0.84×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	83.2%	81.1%	64.1%	1.27×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	66.5%	67.4%	86.7%	0.78×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	58.8%	55.8%	32.3%	1.73×	1.79
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	41.2%	44.2%	67.7%	0.65×	2.26
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	33.5%	32.6%	13.3%	2.45×	3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	16.8%	18.9%	35.9%	0.53×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	16.1%	18.9%	3.3%	5.76×	5.30
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	6.8%	7.6%	1.0%	7.75×	13.16

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	84.3%	85.9%	91.2%	0.94×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	74.4%	71.7%	66.3%	1.08×	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	60.5%	63.1%	70.1%	0.90×	1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half	39.5%	36.9%	29.9%	1.23×	2.71
Under 0.5 in 1st half	25.6%	28.3%	33.7%	0.84×	3.53
Over 2.5 in 1st half	15.7%	14.1%	8.8%	1.61×	7.07

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	88.1%	85.5%	78.6%	1.09×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	64.3%	61.8%	82.4%	0.75×	1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	62.7%	61.7%	43.1%	1.43×	1.62
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	37.3%	38.3%	56.9%	0.67×	2.61
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	35.7%	38.2%	17.6%	2.16×	2.62
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	11.9%	14.5%	21.4%	0.68×	6.90

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina not to score in both halves	87.4%	85.6%	78.4%	1.09×	1.17
Internazionale not to score in both halves	51.3%	55.2%	75.8%	0.73×	1.81
Internazionale to score in both halves	48.8%	44.8%	24.3%	1.85×	2.23
Fiorentina to score in both halves	12.6%	14.4%	21.6%	0.67×	6.92

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	54.1%	53.9%	49.2%	1.09×	1.86
Only Internazionale scores	38.5%	39.9%	22.6%	1.77×	2.51
Only Fiorentina scores	4.3%	4.6%	20.5%	0.22×	21.67
Neither team scores	3.1%	4.6%	7.9%	0.58×	21.73

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.6%	22.6%	23.5%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	18.6%	17.5%	25.0%	0.70×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	18.9%	17.5%	13.3%	1.31×	5.73
6 or more goals	14.0%	12.1%	3.0%	4.04×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	13.2%	12.1%	8.6%	1.40×	8.25
Exactly 1 goals	10.7%	12.1%	19.2%	0.63×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	3.1%	4.5%	7.9%	0.56×	22.39

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	34.9%	35.9%	36.5%	0.98×	2.79
No goals in 1st half	25.6%	28.4%	33.7%	0.84×	3.52
2 goals in 1st half	23.8%	21.5%	21.2%	1.01×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	15.7%	15.6%	8.8%	1.78×	6.41

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	62.7%	58.8%	43.1%	1.36×	1.70
1 goal in 2nd half	25.4%	29.1%	35.7%	0.82×	3.43
No goals in 2nd half	11.9%	14.3%	21.4%	0.67×	7.01

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina not to win both halves	98.5%	97.2%	91.1%	1.07×	1.03
Internazionale not to win both halves	69.0%	70.1%	89.9%	0.78×	1.43
Internazionale to win both halves	31.0%	29.9%	10.1%	2.97×	3.34
Fiorentina to win both halves	1.5%	2.8%	8.9%	0.31×	36.18

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to win either half	83.0%	83.6%	53.3%	1.57×	1.20
Fiorentina to win neither half	75.1%	79.6%	51.6%	1.54×	1.26
Fiorentina to win either half	24.9%	20.4%	48.4%	0.42×	4.90
Internazionale to win neither half	17.0%	16.4%	46.7%	0.35×	6.11

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina not to win to nil	95.7%	96.1%	79.5%	1.21×	1.04
Internazionale not to win to nil	61.5%	66.5%	77.4%	0.86×	1.50
Internazionale to win to nil	38.5%	33.5%	22.6%	1.48×	2.99
Fiorentina to win to nil	4.3%	3.9%	20.5%	0.19×	25.64

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale by 3+	32.0%	27.7%	7.7%	3.60×	3.61
Internazionale by 1	21.4%	24.1%	22.7%	1.06×	4.15
Internazionale by 2	21.1%	24.1%	10.0%	2.42×	4.15
Draw	15.3%	17.0%	26.4%	0.65×	5.87
Fiorentina by 1	7.2%	7.2%	19.3%	0.37×	13.91
Fiorentina by 2	2.4%	2.7%	8.6%	0.31×	36.83
Fiorentina by 3+	0.7%	2.7%	5.9%	0.46×	36.88