Internazionale v Genoa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 28 February 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 6
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
12 – 3
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
0.91 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-0.19 – -0.17
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Internazionale win
75.2%
Draw
15.7%
Genoa win
9.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Internazionale have scored 28 from 28.3 expected and conceded 13 from 12.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDDWWWWDWW last 10
scored 28
from 28.3 xG
conceded 13
from 12.7 xG
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DLLLLLDLWL last 10
scored 6
from 9.7 xG
conceded 16
from 14.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.55–0.79 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.68–0.77 | 2-0 11% | 67% | 50% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Internazionale 2.19 xGGenoa 0.17 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Internazionale attacking right
Genoa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tommaso Baldanzi |
| 2' |
 Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Manuel Akanji |
| 6' |
Internazionale |
Stefan de Vrij | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 12' |
Internazionale |
Manuel Akanji | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 16' |
Internazionale |
Ange-Yoan Bonny | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Henrikh Mkhitaryan |
| 17' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 26' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 29' |
Internazionale |
Ange-Yoan Bonny | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 30' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Henrikh Mkhitaryan |
| 32' |
Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.36 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Carlos Augusto |
| 34' |
Genoa |
Mikael Ellertsson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 57' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tommaso Baldanzi |
| 61' |
Genoa |
Mikael Ellertsson | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Caleb Ekuban |
| 68' |
Internazionale |
Luis Henrique | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 69' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 77' |
Internazionale |
Andy Diouf | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yann Bisseck |
| 79' |
Genoa |
Mikael Ellertsson | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 86' |
Internazionale |
Andy Diouf | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Internazionale |
Luis Henrique | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 91' |
Genoa |
Leo Østigard | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alex Amorim |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikael Ellertsson DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Leo Østigard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Alessandro Marcandalli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Morten Frendrup MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Johan Vásquez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Justin Bijlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aarón Martín DML | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Lorenzo Colombo FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Tommaso Baldanzi AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Vitinha AMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ruslan Malinovskiy MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Alex Amorim Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Caleb Ekuban Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Junior Messias Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jeff Ekhator Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefano Sabelli Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolò Barella MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.39 | 0.27 | 0.92 |
| Federico Dimarco DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.12 | 0.65 |
| Luis Henrique DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.73 |
| Yann Sommer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Augusto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.73 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Piotr Zielinski MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Stefan de Vrij DC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Marcus Thuram FW | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan MC | 60 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| Hakan Calhanoglu Sub | 30 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Francesco Pio Esposito Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Yann Bisseck Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Andy Diouf Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Davide Frattesi Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |