Internazionale v Monza — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 22 August 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 7
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
10 – 6
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.41 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+2.46 – -0.22
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Internazionale win
81.7%
Draw
11.9%
Monza win
6.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Internazionale have scored 27 from 28.9 expected and conceded 14 from 12.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DDWWWWDWWW last 10
scored 27
from 28.9 xG
conceded 14
from 12.4 xG
Monza are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLDLWLWL last 10
scored 16
from 15.1 xG
conceded 23
from 17.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.86–0.70 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.56–0.82 | 2-0 11% | 66% | 52% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Internazionale 1.54 xGMonza 1.22 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Internazionale attacking right
Monza attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Andy Diouf |
| 9' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andy Diouf |
| 25' |
Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 28' |
 Monza |
Gustavo Varela | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mathis Mout |
| 30' |
Monza |
Gustavo Varela | 0.29 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 31' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yann Bisseck |
| 37' |
Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Manuel Akanji |
| 39' |
Monza |
Gustavo Varela | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Andrea Carboni |
| 40' |
Monza |
Mathis Mout | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Manga Foe Ondoa |
| 46' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alessandro Bastoni |
| 47' |
Internazionale |
Piotr Zielinski | 0.33 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 49' |
Monza |
Ricardo Mangas | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 54' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Andy Diouf |
| 62' |
Internazionale |
Yann Bisseck | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Francesco Pio Esposito |
| 65' |
Internazionale |
Ange-Yoan Bonny | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Francesco Pio Esposito |
| 66' |
Internazionale |
Manuel Akanji | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Federico Dimarco |
| 75' |
Monza |
Samuele Birindelli | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Patrick Cutrone |
| 77' |
Monza |
Nicolas Galazzi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Omari Forson |
| 91' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.45 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Monza
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Mangas FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Samuele Birindelli DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Semuel Pizzignacco GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrea Carboni DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| Manga Foe Ondoa MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.43 |
| Eddy Kouadio DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lorenzo Lucchesi DC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Gustavo Varela FW | 84 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Mathis Mout MC | 71 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.43 |
| Andrea Colpani FWR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Adam Bakoune DMR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Nicolas Galazzi Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Patrick Cutrone Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Omari Forson Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Jay Robinson Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Filippo Delli Carri Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francesco Pio Esposito FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0.86 | 0.18 | 1.08 |
| Yann Bisseck DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| Nicolò Barella MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Federico Dimarco DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| Josep Martínez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Alessandro Bastoni DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.39 |
| Piotr Zielinski MC | 84 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Andy Diouf DMR | 76 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| Hakan Calhanoglu MC | 55 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Lautaro Martínez FW | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Petar Sucic Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| John Stones Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luis Henrique Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aleksandar Stankovic Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |