Internazionale v Napoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 11 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 7
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
10 – 5
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.78 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.34 – +0.62
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Internazionale win
52.1%
Draw
25.7%
Napoli win
22.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Internazionale are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWDWWDDWWW last 10
scored 26
from 22.1 xG
conceded 12
from 13.5 xG
Napoli are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWDLWWWLL last 10
scored 16
from 14.6 xG
conceded 11
from 13.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.53–0.90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.51–1.22 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 55% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Internazionale 1.66 xGNapoli 1.38 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Internazionale attacking right
Napoli attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 8' |
 Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Marcus Thuram |
| 14' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 16' |
Internazionale |
Alessandro Bastoni | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Thuram |
| 16' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Piotr Zielinski |
| 25' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Eljif Elmas |
| 30' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 32' |
Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Piotr Zielinski |
| 41' |
Internazionale |
Piotr Zielinski | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 43' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.28 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 45' |
Internazionale |
Yann Bisseck | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 47' |
Napoli |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Vanja Milinkovic-Savic |
| 50' |
Napoli |
Giovanni Di Lorenzo | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Leonardo Spinazzola |
| 51' |
Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 58' |
Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Piotr Zielinski |
| 62' |
Napoli |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leonardo Spinazzola |
| 65' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 72' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 80' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Noa Lang |
| 92' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ange-Yoan Bonny |
Players
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolò Barella MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.17 | 0.49 | 0.64 |
| Yann Bisseck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Federico Dimarco DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Alessandro Bastoni DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Yann Sommer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Luis Henrique DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Hakan Calhanoglu MC | 89 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.79 | 0.04 | 0.54 |
| Lautaro Martínez FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Marcus Thuram FW | 85 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.11 | 0.52 |
| Piotr Zielinski MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.54 |
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Francesco Pio Esposito Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Petar Sucic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Carlos Augusto Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Napoli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott McTominay MC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.10 | 0.00 | 1.12 |
| Rasmus Højlund FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 1.32 |
| Stanislav Lobotka MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Matteo Politano AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.06 |
| Leonardo Spinazzola DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.65 |
| Juan Jesus DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Eljif Elmas AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| Amir Rrahmani DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Vanja Milinkovic-Savic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Sam Beukema DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Noa Lang Sub | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| Pasquale Mazzocchi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |