Internazionale v Parma Calcio 1913 — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 3 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 4
On target
5 – 0
Shots in box
11 – 3
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.02
Goals − xG
-0.02 – -0.45
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Internazionale win
73.9%
Draw
16.1%
Parma Calcio 1913 win
10.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Internazionale have scored 28 from 28.3 expected and conceded 13 from 12.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDDWWWWDWW last 10
scored 28
from 28.3 xG
conceded 13
from 12.7 xG
Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWLLDLWLL last 10
scored 7
from 8.6 xG
conceded 17
from 20.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.29–0.69 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.65–0.69 | 2-0 12% | 65% | 47% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Internazionale 2.02 xGParma Calcio 1913 0.45 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Internazionale attacking right
Parma Calcio 1913 attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 9' |
Internazionale |
Denzel Dumfries | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 19' |
 Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Enrico Del Prato |
| 24' |
Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Francesco Pio Esposito |
| 29' |
Internazionale |
Denzel Dumfries | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Piotr Zielinski |
| 31' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alessandro Bastoni |
| 34' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Internazionale |
Denzel Dumfries | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alessandro Bastoni |
| 45' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Piotr Zielinski |
| 57' |
Internazionale |
Petar Sucic | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 69' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Nesta Elphege | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Enrico Del Prato |
| 71' |
Internazionale |
Denzel Dumfries | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 76' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 79' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.64 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Lautaro Martínez |
| 88' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Niakhate Ndiaye | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia |
| 89' |
Internazionale |
Davide Frattesi | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Dimarco |
Players
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Dumfries DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| Nicolò Barella MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.09 | 0.22 | 0.54 |
| Petar Sucic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 1.31 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.36 |
| Federico Dimarco DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 1.28 |
| Yann Bisseck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.34 |
| Yann Sommer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Marcus Thuram FW | 69 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Piotr Zielinski MC | 69 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.80 |
| Alessandro Bastoni DC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.77 |
| Francesco Pio Esposito FW | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan Sub | 21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Lautaro Martínez Sub | 21 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.64 | 1.18 |
| Carlos Augusto Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.12 |
| Davide Frattesi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
Parma Calcio 1913
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niakhate Ndiaye DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Mariano Troilo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Enrico Del Prato DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| Zion Suzuki GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Circati DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Emanuele Valeri DML | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Adrián Bernabé MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Gabriel Strefezza FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mateo Pellegrino FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Mandela Keita MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Nesta Elphege Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Christian Ordóñez Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oliver Sørensen Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pontus Almqvist Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Franco Ezequiel Carboni Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |