Ipswich v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 29 September 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 7
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
10 – 4
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.37 – 0.13
Goals − xG
+0.15 – +0.86
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Ipswich win
22.3%
Draw
22.7%
Aston Villa win
55.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Ipswich are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLLLWLL last 10
scored 9
from 10.0 xG
conceded 25
from 20.5 xG
Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWWLLD last 10
scored 14
from 15.7 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.10–1.85 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 56% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Ipswich 1.85 xGAston Villa 1.14 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Ipswich attacking right
Aston Villa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pau Torres |
| 6' |
 Ipswich |
Sam Morsy | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Chiedozie Ogbene |
| 7' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jack Clarke |
| 13' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 14' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ollie Watkins |
| 17' |
Ipswich |
Axel Tuanzebe | 0.24 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Leif Davis |
| 17' |
Ipswich |
Jack Clarke | 0.27 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Leif Davis |
| 31' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.55 | Open Play | — | Goal | Leon Bailey |
| 35' |
Ipswich |
Kalvin Phillips | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 37' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Leif Davis |
| 48' |
Ipswich |
Jack Clarke | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leif Davis |
| 59' |
Ipswich |
Sam Morsy | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 68' |
Ipswich |
Leif Davis | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Clarke |
| 71' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Omari Hutchinson |
| 73' |
Aston Villa |
Jacob Ramsey | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jhon Durán |
| 76' |
Ipswich |
Axel Tuanzebe | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Leif Davis |
| 77' |
Ipswich |
Omari Hutchinson | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sam Morsy |
| 80' |
Ipswich |
Wes Burns | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jack Clarke |
| 84' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.13 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
Aston Villa |
Ross Barkley | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jacob Ramsey |
| 92' |
Ipswich |
Jack Taylor | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Leif Davis |
| 94' |
Ipswich |
Dara O'Shea | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Leif Davis |
Players
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Ramsey AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.38 |
| Amadou Onana DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Pau Torres DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.33 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diego Carlos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Ollie Watkins FW | 87 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.08 | 0.71 |
| Youri Tielemans DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.29 | 0.86 |
| Lucas Digne DL | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Morgan Rogers AMC | 67 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.94 |
| Leon Bailey AMR | 67 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 0.86 |
| Jhon Durán Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Emiliano Buendía Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ross Barkley Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Ian Maatsen Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
Ipswich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Delap FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 1.35 |
| Jack Clarke AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.28 | 0.63 |
| Axel Tuanzebe DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Dara O'Shea DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Sam Morsy DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.44 |
| Leif Davis DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0.04 | 0.97 | 0.71 |
| Omari Hutchinson AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.50 | 1.19 |
| Jacob Greaves DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Kalvin Phillips DMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Chiedozie Ogbene AMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Wes Burns Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Jack Taylor Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| George Hirst Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Massimo Luongo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sammie Szmodics Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |