Ipswich v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 8 December 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 22
On target
5 – 6
Shots in box
11 – 14
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.86 – 0.11
Goals − xG
-0.57 – -1.98
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Ipswich win
19.7%
Draw
19.7%
Bournemouth win
60.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Ipswich are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLLLWLL last 10
scored 9
from 10.0 xG
conceded 25
from 20.5 xG
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.21–2.24 | 1-2 10% | 67% | 63% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Ipswich 1.57 xGBournemouth 3.98 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Ipswich attacking right
Bournemouth attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.58 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Taylor |
| 3' |
Ipswich |
Jack Taylor | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leif Davis |
| 7' |
 Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.96 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 11' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dean Huijsen |
| 14' |
Ipswich |
Jack Taylor | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
Ipswich |
Cameron Burgess | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 19' |
Ipswich |
Omari Hutchinson | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cameron Burgess |
| 20' |
Ipswich |
Conor Chaplin | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Cameron Burgess |
| 25' |
Ipswich |
Jack Taylor | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 27' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Justin Kluivert |
| 27' |
Ipswich |
Conor Chaplin | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sam Morsy |
| 30' |
Ipswich |
Sammie Szmodics | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jack Taylor |
| 33' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 34' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 35' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Evanilson |
| 39' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 41' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Ipswich |
Sammie Szmodics | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Liam Delap |
| 51' |
Bournemouth |
Lewis Cook | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 54' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 55' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 55' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sam Morsy |
| 66' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 69' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 70' |
Ipswich |
Sammie Szmodics | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Liam Delap |
| 72' |
Ipswich |
Sammie Szmodics | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Liam Delap |
| 73' |
Ipswich |
Conor Chaplin | 0.05 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Liam Delap |
| 77' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Illia Zabarnyi |
| 81' |
Ipswich |
Conor Chaplin | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Taylor |
| 81' |
Ipswich |
Jack Clarke | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Ipswich |
Conor Chaplin | 0.08 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Leif Davis |
| 85' |
Ipswich |
Jack Taylor | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.19 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Philip Billing |
| 86' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.57 | Open Play | — | Goal | Dango Ouattara |
| 92' |
Bournemouth |
Philip Billing | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 94' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.67 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 94' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.58 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Philip Billing |
| 97' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Semenyo AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 1.87 |
| Lewis Cook DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 1.06 |
| Kepa GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.96 | 2.02 |
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1.76 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.68 |
| Ryan Christie DMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| Marcus Tavernier AMR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1.01 | 0.02 | 1.01 |
| Evanilson FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| Justin Kluivert AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.50 | 0.12 | 0.63 |
| Adam Smith DR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.11 |
| Dango Ouattara Sub | 24 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.85 | 0.60 | 1.42 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 24 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| David Brooks Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Philip Billing Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.77 | 0.82 |
| James Hill Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Ipswich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Chaplin AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Cameron Burgess DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| Jack Taylor DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.70 | 0.34 |
| Omari Hutchinson AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.25 |
| Leif Davis DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.34 |
| Sam Morsy DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.31 |
| Dara O'Shea DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Ben Johnson DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Liam Delap FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.64 | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| Sammie Szmodics AML | 83 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Jack Clarke Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ali Al-Hamadi Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jens Cajuste Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wes Burns Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |