Ipswich v Brentford — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 May 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 15
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
5 – 11
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.32
Goals − xG
-0.72 – -0.34
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Ipswich win
15.6%
Draw
20.5%
Brentford win
63.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Ipswich are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLLLWLL last 10
scored 9
from 10.0 xG
conceded 25
from 20.5 xG
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.93–2.09 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.14–2.18 | 1-2 10% | 64% | 60% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Ipswich 0.72 xGBrentford 1.34 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Ipswich attacking right
Brentford attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 17' |
 Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.32 | From Corner | — | Goal | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 19' |
Ipswich |
Julio Enciso | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacob Greaves |
| 28' |
Ipswich |
Jack Taylor | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sam Morsy |
| 31' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yoane Wissa |
| 35' |
Brentford |
Sepp van den Berg | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Keane Lewis-Potter |
| 38' |
Ipswich |
Jack Taylor | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Julio Enciso |
| 45' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Kayode |
| 45' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kevin Schade |
| 46' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 52' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 58' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kevin Schade |
| 61' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 61' |
Brentford |
Michael Kayode | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Michael Kayode |
| 69' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Keane Lewis-Potter |
| 69' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 73' |
Ipswich |
Jacob Greaves | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Ipswich |
Sam Morsy | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Clarke |
| 79' |
Ipswich |
George Hirst | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jacob Greaves |
| 81' |
Ipswich |
Omari Hutchinson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jack Clarke |
| 84' |
Ipswich |
Julio Enciso | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sam Morsy |
| 91' |
Ipswich |
Cameron Burgess | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 93' |
Ipswich |
George Hirst | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
Players
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoane Wissa FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.05 | 0.47 |
| Bryan Mbeumo AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| Sepp van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Michael Kayode DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.48 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| Christian Nørgaard DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 0.35 |
| Kevin Schade AML | 75 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.16 | 0.35 |
| Mathias Jensen Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thiago Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yunus Konak Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Ipswich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Burgess DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Jacob Greaves DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Omari Hutchinson AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| Julio Enciso AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Sam Morsy DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.57 |
| Alex Palmer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Dara O'Shea DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Axel Tuanzebe DR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Liam Delap FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jack Taylor DMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Conor Chaplin AMC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jack Clarke Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| Jens Cajuste Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| George Hirst Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Ben Johnson Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |