Ipswich v Chelsea — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 30 December 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 20
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 12
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.92 – 0.58
Goals − xG
+0.50 – -1.63
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Ipswich win
16.9%
Draw
16.9%
Chelsea win
66.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Ipswich are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLLLWLL last 10
scored 9
from 10.0 xG
conceded 25
from 20.5 xG
Chelsea are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLLDWLWW last 10
scored 12
from 15.3 xG
conceded 22
from 17.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.32–2.68 | 1-2 9% | 76% | 68% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Ipswich 1.50 xGChelsea 1.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Ipswich attacking right
Chelsea attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Chelsea |
Noni Madueke | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 3' |
 Ipswich |
Nathan Broadhead | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 11' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 12' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 20' |
Chelsea |
Christopher Nkunku | 0.55 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 20' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Enzo Fernández |
| 29' |
Chelsea |
João Félix | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Noni Madueke |
| 29' |
Chelsea |
Marc Cucurella | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Chelsea |
Moisés Caicedo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Chelsea |
João Félix | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 37' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nathan Broadhead |
| 38' |
Ipswich |
Dara O'Shea | 0.10 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christopher Nkunku |
| 45' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | João Félix |
| 46' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Axel Disasi |
| 46' |
Chelsea |
João Félix | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 49' |
Chelsea |
Noni Madueke | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Axel Disasi |
| 50' |
Chelsea |
João Félix | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 52' |
Ipswich |
Omari Hutchinson | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Liam Delap |
| 56' |
Chelsea |
Axel Disasi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Christopher Nkunku |
| 62' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Walton |
| 66' |
Ipswich |
Nathan Broadhead | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 69' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Levi Colwill |
| 69' |
Chelsea |
Noni Madueke | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 73' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 81' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolas Jackson |
| 83' |
Chelsea |
Jadon Sancho | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 85' |
Chelsea |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 92' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jadon Sancho |
Players
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Palmer AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.21 | 0.17 | 0.57 |
| Enzo Fernández DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.16 | 0.24 | 0.80 |
| Moisés Caicedo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Marc Cucurella DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Tosin Adarabioyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Filip Jorgensen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Levi Colwill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.55 |
| Noni Madueke AMR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.07 | 0.46 |
| Axel Disasi DR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 0.33 |
| Christopher Nkunku FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.55 | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| João Félix AML | 60 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.05 | 0.34 |
| Nicolas Jackson Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Jadon Sancho Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| Pedro Neto Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Malo Gusto Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
Ipswich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Delap FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1.08 | 0.11 | 0.43 |
| Omari Hutchinson AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.45 |
| Dara O'Shea DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Luke Woolfenden DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sam Morsy DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leif Davis DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wes Burns AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Jacob Greaves DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Walton GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Nathan Broadhead AML | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.12 | 0.27 |
| Jens Cajuste DMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kalvin Phillips Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sammie Szmodics Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jack Taylor Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Johnson Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ali Al-Hamadi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |