Ipswich v Crystal Palace — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 3 December 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 13
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
5 – 8
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.10 – 0.22
Goals − xG
-0.47 – -0.65
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Ipswich win
31.4%
Draw
23.2%
Crystal Palace win
45.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Ipswich are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLLLWLL last 10
scored 9
from 10.0 xG
conceded 25
from 20.5 xG
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.43–1.76 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 63% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Ipswich 0.47 xGCrystal Palace 1.65 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Ipswich attacking right
Crystal Palace attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Leif Davis |
| 22' |
 Crystal Palace |
Cheick Oumar Doucoure | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ismaila Sarr |
| 26' |
Crystal Palace |
Maxence Lacroix | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 28' |
Crystal Palace |
Cheick Oumar Doucoure | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean-Philippe Mateta |
| 28' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Crystal Palace |
Marc Guehi | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 31' |
Crystal Palace |
Trevoh Chalobah | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Crystal Palace |
Daniel Muñoz | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 35' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 37' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jean-Philippe Mateta |
| 43' |
Ipswich |
Wes Burns | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jens Cajuste |
| 44' |
Ipswich |
Harry Clarke | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Leif Davis |
| 46' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Wes Burns |
| 48' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Will Hughes |
| 53' |
Ipswich |
Dara O'Shea | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Clarke |
| 58' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Eberechi Eze |
| 58' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' |
Crystal Palace |
Jefferson Lerma | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 66' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 70' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.24 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Leif Davis |
| 79' |
Ipswich |
Sam Morsy | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
Ipswich |
Jacob Greaves | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Shot On Post | Conor Chaplin |
Players
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Philippe Mateta FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.80 | 0.42 | 1.26 |
| Daniel Muñoz DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.93 |
| Marc Guehi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ismaila Sarr AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.39 |
| Will Hughes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.57 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.46 |
| Trevoh Chalobah DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Eberechi Eze AMC | 79 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.43 | 0.88 | 1.34 |
| Cheick Oumar Doucoure MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Jefferson Lerma Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Justin Devenny Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chris Richards Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eddie Nketiah Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Ipswich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Clarke DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sam Morsy DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Dara O'Shea DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Jacob Greaves DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leif Davis DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| Omari Hutchinson AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Liam Delap FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Wes Burns AMR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| Jens Cajuste DMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Jack Clarke AML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Jack Taylor Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Nathan Broadhead Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Conor Chaplin Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Ali Al-Hamadi Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |