Ipswich v Everton — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 19 October 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 11
On target
2 – 8
Shots in box
9 – 8
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.45 – 0.14
Goals − xG
-1.17 – +0.39
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Ipswich win
33.1%
Draw
25.0%
Everton win
41.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Ipswich are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLLLWLL last 10
scored 9
from 10.0 xG
conceded 25
from 20.5 xG
Everton have scored 15 from 13.7 expected and conceded 18 from 18.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLDDLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 13.7 xG
conceded 18
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.32–1.51 | 1-1 12% | 54% | 57% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Ipswich 1.17 xGEverton 1.61 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Ipswich attacking right
Everton attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Ipswich |
Jack Clarke | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Wes Burns |
| 6' |
 Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 10' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 16' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 21' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dwight McNeil |
| 24' |
Ipswich |
Omari Hutchinson | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Everton |
Dwight McNeil | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Abdoulaye Doucouré |
| 39' |
Everton |
Michael Keane | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Dwight McNeil |
| 41' |
Ipswich |
Dara O'Shea | 0.12 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Leif Davis |
| 45' |
Ipswich |
Kalvin Phillips | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Everton |
Ashley Young | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 51' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Abdoulaye Doucouré |
| 54' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 59' |
Ipswich |
Cameron Burgess | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kalvin Phillips |
| 60' |
Everton |
Dwight McNeil | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ashley Young |
| 63' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 74' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sammie Szmodics |
| 76' |
Ipswich |
Omari Hutchinson | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sam Morsy |
| 77' |
Ipswich |
Cameron Burgess | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sammie Szmodics |
| 79' |
Ipswich |
Conor Chaplin | 0.09 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Leif Davis |
| 86' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ashley Young |
| 89' |
Ipswich |
Jack Taylor | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Leif Davis |
| 90' |
Ipswich |
Jack Taylor | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 93' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jack Harrison |
Players
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.03 | 0.00 | 1.08 |
| Dwight McNeil AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.27 |
| Michael Keane DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ashley Young DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.27 |
| Abdoulaye Doucouré DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jack Harrison AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.54 |
| Idrissa Gueye DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iliman Ndiaye AML | 88 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Orel Mangala Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
Ipswich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omari Hutchinson AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.24 | 0.71 |
| Cameron Burgess DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Luke Woolfenden DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Leif Davis DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.51 |
| Sam Morsy DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.72 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Liam Delap FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Jack Clarke AML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Kalvin Phillips DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.37 |
| Dara O'Shea DR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Wes Burns AMR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| Conor Chaplin Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Harry Clarke Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jack Taylor Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Sammie Szmodics Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| George Hirst Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |