Ipswich v Leicester City — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 2 November 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 20
On target
2 – 5
Shots in box
8 – 15
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.40 – 0.20
Goals − xG
-0.34 – -1.34
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Ipswich win
46.3%
Draw
22.4%
Leicester City win
31.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Ipswich are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLLLWLL last 10
scored 9
from 10.0 xG
conceded 25
from 20.5 xG
Leicester City are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLDLLWDWL last 10
scored 8
from 8.8 xG
conceded 18
from 23.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.87–1.51 | 1-1 10% | 66% | 66% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Ipswich 1.34 xGLeicester City 2.34 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Ipswich attacking right
Leicester City attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Leicester City |
Stephy Mavididi | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 7' |
Leicester City |
Abdul Fatawu | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Stephy Mavididi |
| 8' |
 Ipswich |
Sammie Szmodics | 0.54 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 10' |
Ipswich |
Conor Chaplin | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sam Morsy |
| 14' |
Leicester City |
Facundo Buonanotte | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Wilfred Ndidi |
| 15' |
Leicester City |
Jamie Vardy | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Stephy Mavididi |
| 18' |
Leicester City |
Harry Winks | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
Ipswich |
Dara O'Shea | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
Ipswich |
Kalvin Phillips | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leif Davis |
| 22' |
Ipswich |
Omari Hutchinson | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 30' |
Ipswich |
Dara O'Shea | 0.20 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Leif Davis |
| 33' |
Ipswich |
Conor Chaplin | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 33' |
Ipswich |
Omari Hutchinson | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
Ipswich |
Conor Chaplin | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Liam Delap |
| 42' |
Ipswich |
Ben Johnson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Leif Davis |
| 45' |
Ipswich |
Kalvin Phillips | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Ipswich |
Omari Hutchinson | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ben Johnson |
| 54' |
Ipswich |
Leif Davis | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Sam Morsy |
| 63' |
Leicester City |
Harry Winks | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jamie Vardy |
| 63' |
Leicester City |
Harry Winks | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jannik Vestergaard |
| 69' |
Ipswich |
Kalvin Phillips | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Leicester City |
Facundo Buonanotte | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Victor Kristiansen |
| 86' |
Leicester City |
Jordan Ayew | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Facundo Buonanotte |
| 87' |
Leicester City |
Harry Winks | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Facundo Buonanotte |
| 90' |
Leicester City |
Abdul Fatawu | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 90' |
Leicester City |
Facundo Buonanotte | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Harry Winks |
| 92' |
Leicester City |
Jordan Ayew | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Abdul Fatawu |
| 93' |
Leicester City |
Jordan Ayew | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jamie Vardy |
| 93' |
Leicester City |
Kasey McAteer | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
Leicester City |
Wout Faes | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Abdul Fatawu |
| 95' |
Leicester City |
Boubakary Soumare | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Facundo Buonanotte |
| 97' |
Leicester City |
Jordan Ayew | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 97' |
Leicester City |
Jordan Ayew | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 98' |
Leicester City |
Wout Faes | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Ipswich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dara O'Shea DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leif Davis DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| Ben Johnson DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cameron Burgess DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Sam Morsy DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| Omari Hutchinson AMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.57 | 0.81 |
| Conor Chaplin AMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Kalvin Phillips DMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Liam Delap FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Sammie Szmodics AML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Jack Clarke Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| George Hirst Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jens Cajuste Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wes Burns Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Leicester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Facundo Buonanotte AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.67 | 0.89 |
| Wout Faes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Abdul Fatawu AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| Harry Winks DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Jamie Vardy FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| Mads Hermansen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jannik Vestergaard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.19 |
| Victor Kristiansen DL | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Ricardo Pereira DR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Stephy Mavididi AML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.41 | 0.07 | 0.49 |
| Wilfred Ndidi DMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| Boubakary Soumare Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 1.28 |
| Kasey McAteer Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Bilal El Khannouss Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| Jordan Ayew Sub | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.30 | 0.00 | 1.30 |