Ipswich v Manchester City — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 19 January 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 17
On target
4 – 9
Shots in box
5 – 14
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.57 – 0.14
Goals − xG
-0.80 – +2.79
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Ipswich win
17.7%
Draw
18.3%
Manchester City win
64.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Ipswich are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLLLWLL last 10
scored 9
from 10.0 xG
conceded 25
from 20.5 xG
Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDLWWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.7 xG
conceded 9
from 13.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.23–2.44 | 1-2 9% | 71% | 64% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Ipswich 0.80 xGManchester City 3.21 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Ipswich attacking right
Manchester City attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Ipswich |
Cameron Burgess | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Ben Johnson |
| 7' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jack Clarke |
| 14' |
 Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mateo Kovacic |
| 15' |
Manchester City |
Jéremy Doku | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 15' |
Manchester City |
Mateo Kovacic | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 17' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Erling Haaland |
| 19' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mateo Kovacic |
| 23' |
Ipswich |
Omari Hutchinson | 0.08 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leif Davis |
| 24' |
Ipswich |
Dara O'Shea | 0.35 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Ben Johnson |
| 26' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.58 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 28' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jens Cajuste |
| 29' |
Manchester City |
Mateo Kovacic | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Phil Foden |
| 36' |
Manchester City |
Kevin De Bruyne | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Phil Foden |
| 41' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.60 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 48' |
Ipswich |
Ben Johnson | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 48' |
Manchester City |
Jéremy Doku | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 56' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jéremy Doku |
| 58' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 58' |
Manchester City |
Kevin De Bruyne | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 60' |
Ipswich |
Omari Hutchinson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ben Johnson |
| 67' |
Manchester City |
Divin Mubama | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' |
Manchester City |
James McAtee | 0.42 | Open Play | — | Goal | Mateo Kovacic |
| 75' |
Manchester City |
Nico O'Reilly | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 79' |
Ipswich |
Sam Morsy | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' |
Manchester City |
James McAtee | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ilkay Gündogan |
Players
Manchester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéremy Doku AML | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.57 | 1.34 |
| Ederson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ilkay Gündogan DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1.62 |
| Josko Gvardiol DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Rúben Dias DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Matheus Nunes DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Mateo Kovacic DMC | 73 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.82 | 1.07 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Phil Foden AMR | 64 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1.32 | 0.16 | 1.82 |
| Erling Haaland FW | 64 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.92 | 0.11 | 1.03 |
| Kevin De Bruyne AMC | 64 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.75 | 0.98 |
| James McAtee Sub | 26 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Divin Mubama Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jack Grealish Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Nico O'Reilly Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Rico Lewis Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
Ipswich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dara O'Shea DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Cameron Burgess DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ben Johnson DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| Sam Morsy MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leif Davis DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Christian Walton GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Liam Delap FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Omari Hutchinson MR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Jens Cajuste MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Ben Godfrey DC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jack Clarke ML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.23 |
| Massimo Luongo Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Axel Tuanzebe Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| George Hirst Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jack Taylor Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |