Ipswich v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 24 November 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 11
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
5 – 7
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-1.00 – -0.27
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Ipswich win
25.8%
Draw
20.4%
Manchester United win
53.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Ipswich are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLLLWLL last 10
scored 9
from 10.0 xG
conceded 25
from 20.5 xG
Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWWDWWLWD last 10
scored 20
from 20.9 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.50–2.21 | 1-2 9% | 72% | 69% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Ipswich 2.00 xGManchester United 1.27 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Ipswich attacking right
Manchester United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Manchester United |
Marcus Rashford | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 5' |
Manchester United |
Christian Eriksen | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 6' |
 Ipswich |
Sammie Szmodics | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Wes Burns |
| 10' |
Ipswich |
Sammie Szmodics | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Wes Burns |
| 17' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 28' |
Ipswich |
Omari Hutchinson | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 31' |
Ipswich |
Omari Hutchinson | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Casemiro |
| 39' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Leif Davis |
| 41' |
Ipswich |
Jens Cajuste | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sam Morsy |
| 42' |
Ipswich |
Omari Hutchinson | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Wes Burns |
| 45' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 45' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Noussair Mazraoui |
| 51' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.68 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 51' |
Ipswich |
Sam Morsy | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 70' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 76' |
Manchester United |
Joshua Zirkzee | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 78' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' |
Ipswich |
Conor Chaplin | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jack Clarke |
| 87' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Rasmus Højlund |
| 92' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Manuel Ugarte |
Players
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.39 | 1.11 |
| Amad Diallo Traore DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.48 | 0.71 |
| Diogo Dalot DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| André Onana GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Noussair Mazraoui DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.85 |
| Matthijs de Ligt DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Alejandro Garnacho AMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Marcus Rashford FW | 71 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.09 | 0.54 |
| Christian Eriksen MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Casemiro MC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| Jonny Evans DC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Luke Shaw Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Manuel Ugarte Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| Joshua Zirkzee Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Rasmus Højlund Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Mason Mount Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
Ipswich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omari Hutchinson AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| Sam Morsy DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.59 |
| Cameron Burgess DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Dara O'Shea DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Leif Davis DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| Axel Tuanzebe DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Wes Burns AMR | 85 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| Liam Delap FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 1.27 |
| Sammie Szmodics AML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Jens Cajuste DMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Jack Clarke Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| Jack Taylor Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ali Al-Hamadi Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Conor Chaplin Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.47 |